2023 NFL Draft Discussion

[Drj820]

I def think rodgers mentions retirement so much to hurt his trade value so his next team may still have some draft picks to get some receivers with

[BF004]

Kind of in the same boat with Josh Downs, maybe a step down. I'd be more comfortable with Downs around 25-40 and Flowers around 15 though.

I'm in the "Flowers is too small at 15" camp. Heck, I'm in the "Flowers is too small in the first round" camp.

I'm very confused about the consensus around the "top" WRs in this class (just saw that 3 of the 4 ESPN analysts, Kiper, McShay, Reid, and Matt Miller) had the same 5 in slightly different orders (JSN, Addison, Johnson, Flowers, Downs, and I'm super confused and intrigued as to why there isn't more diversity in opinion with guys like Boutte and Hyatt (the one exception to the uniformity--also cracked Dane Brugler's top 5) or even guys we like like Rice and AT Perry, though we have to see them run.

The fact that we could put our newest WR in the slot does open up options for me, but I'm not sure I want to go Flowers small or even Downs or Tyler Scott small. if you're under 190 pounds, it's a tough sell for me.

Hyatt I like a lot too, man is he fast, just has that 2nd and 3rd geart.

But I agree on the weird consensus though. I feel like that happens in a group think world. But I will say I haven't seen a video of Addison that gets me excite at all. So I probably got my top 5, same as everyone else's, + Hyatt - Addison.

[BSA]

Here's the NFL Draft Power rankings from Tankathon

They basically add up all the draft points each team owns and then rank em

https://www.tankathon.com/nfl/power_rankings

For 2023, the Packers pick is # 15, but they rank # 11 in draft capital based on previous trade and comp picks
GB has 10 picks heading into April ( or is it May ? )


I always thought draft grades should reflect "what you did with what you have", instead of giving an "A" grade just because you picked # 3 and got a top player. Packer GMs have had to make it work with below average draft capital throughout most of the Favre/Rodgers reign.

[lupedafiasco]

Here's the NFL Draft Power rankings from Tankathon

They basically add up all the draft points each team owns and then rank em

https://www.tankathon.com/nfl/power_rankings

For 2023, the Packers pick is # 15, but they rank # 11 in draft capital based on previous trade and comp picks
GB has 10 picks heading into April ( or is it May ? )


I always thought draft grades should reflect "what you did with what you have", instead of giving an "A" grade just because you picked # 3 and got a top player. Packer GMs have had to make it work with below average draft capital throughout most of the Favre/Rodgers reign.

Have they made it work? They routinely pick the wrong player at the positions in which they pick.

[BF004]

Sounds like Bears wanna stick with Fields and deal the #1 pick if they can.

I feel like if they can get Texans or Colts to trade up from 2 or 4, they'll be guaranteed 2 QB's will go, and they can take Carter or Anderson Jr, not sure who I like more between those two, but I wouldn't want to trade down lower than 4.

[lupedafiasco]

Sounds like Bears wanna stick with Fields and deal the #1 pick if they can.

I feel like if they can get Texans or Colts to trade up from 2 or 4, they'll be guaranteed 2 QB's will go, and they can take Carter or Anderson Jr, not sure who I like more between those two, but I wouldn't want to trade down lower than 4.

That’s gotta be the move for them. Ultimately I think they move with the Colts. I just don’t see the Texans ponying up to move 1 spot for this classes QB.

It will depend on the Cardinals at 3 then but I think at the end of the day teams will consider Carter the top player in the draft because Anderson is small and I don’t think he’s Von Miller explosive.

[NCF]

Sounds like Bears wanna stick with Fields and deal the #1 pick if they can.

I feel like if they can get Texans or Colts to trade up from 2 or 4, they'll be guaranteed 2 QB's will go, and they can take Carter or Anderson Jr, not sure who I like more between those two, but I wouldn't want to trade down lower than 4.

That’s gotta be the move for them. Ultimately I think they move with the Colts. I just don’t see the Texans ponying up to move 1 spot for this classes QB.

It will depend on the Cardinals at 3 then but I think at the end of the day teams will consider Carter the top player in the draft because Anderson is small and I don’t think he’s Von Miller explosive.

I feel like the Bears already screwed this up by not being immediately decisive. At least that is the perception from out here. Fields can't be feeling the greatest that they didn't immediately say he's our guy and we will move forward from there. In a world where perception means a lot, the Bears got it wrong again.

[Pckfn23]

[Pckfn23]

[Backthepack4ever]

That's my dude. Fav wr in the draft. Kids hands are the best I've seen in years and he can separate that's a dog

[Drj820]

Sounds like Bears wanna stick with Fields and deal the #1 pick if they can.

I feel like if they can get Texans or Colts to trade up from 2 or 4, they'll be guaranteed 2 QB's will go, and they can take Carter or Anderson Jr, not sure who I like more between those two, but I wouldn't want to trade down lower than 4.

That’s gotta be the move for them. Ultimately I think they move with the Colts. I just don’t see the Texans ponying up to move 1 spot for this classes QB.

It will depend on the Cardinals at 3 then but I think at the end of the day teams will consider Carter the top player in the draft because Anderson is small and I don’t think he’s Von Miller explosive.

I feel like the Bears already screwed this up by not being immediately decisive. At least that is the perception from out here. Fields can't be feeling the greatest that they didn't immediately say he's our guy and we will move forward from there. In a world where perception means a lot, the Bears got it wrong again.

when you have the number one pick, due diligence is critical. In the end they seem to like Fields over any qb they could have in the draft. Thats plenty of a vote of confidence for a team that lost enough to have top pick. I dont think they screwed anything up. Playoffs arent even over yet and theyve declared their intentions.

[YoHoChecko]

I need a lot more evidence of separation than high exertions.

I’m not seeing it or reading about it actually happening on the field.

[YoHoChecko]

Sounds like Bears wanna stick with Fields and deal the #1 pick if they can.

I feel like if they can get Texans or Colts to trade up from 2 or 4, they'll be guaranteed 2 QB's will go

That’s gotta be the move for them. Ultimately I think they move with the Colts. I just don’t see the Texans ponying up to move 1 spot for this classes QB.

I also think the Colts are the move there but I keep coming back to a question… Chris Ballard is notorious for valuing traits. What if he PREFERS CJ Stroud to Bryce Young? Tough to justify the move up to 1 in that case. Be interesting to see how it all shakes out, though.

[Drj820]

Sounds like Bears wanna stick with Fields and deal the #1 pick if they can.

I feel like if they can get Texans or Colts to trade up from 2 or 4, they'll be guaranteed 2 QB's will go

That’s gotta be the move for them. Ultimately I think they move with the Colts. I just don’t see the Texans ponying up to move 1 spot for this classes QB.

I also think the Colts are the move there but I keep coming back to a question… Chris Ballard is notorious for valuing traits. What if he PREFERS CJ Stroud to Bryce Young? Tough to justify the move up to 1 in that case. Be interesting to see how it all shakes out, though.

He can justify anything after the OSU-UGA game if he likes Stroud enough. Mix in a little qb desperation and an irratic owner…perfect storm.

[NCF]

[Yoop]

got a crush on Musgrave already, minus the injury last year and his draft status would be up there with Myers.

nfl network.

4) Luke Musgrave, Oregon State
Before the season, Luke Musgrave was documented as having a 4.51 40-yard dash and a 36.5″ vertical on Feldman Freaks. He was only able to play two games before a knee injury sidelined him for the rest of the campaign, but he provided enough validation in that window to support his declaration.

At 6’6″, 250 pounds, Musgrave is a unique mold of tight end. Of the prospects on this list, he’s arguably the most explosive athlete, and he has a legitimate speed element in space once he can open up his strides. He’s also a flexible route runner who can extend beyond his frame and convert at the catch point.

[YoHoChecko]

I hear mixed things on Musgrave.

Some say that he's a good enough blocker with room to improve. Rick Speilman and his pod co-host from CBS say he can't block anyone. They also say he dropped more balls than about anyone down there this week. The NFL Network guys are ready to take Musgrave in the top 20. Speilman and Wilson sound like he's borderline top 50.

Honestly seems like the kind of elite athlete at a need position that the Packers would roll the dice on, so I'll be watching his process, but I'm more skeptical than "in love" at this point.

Some Notes on Safeties

Sydney Brown, a safety from Illinois that is a little short and will go on Day Three, has been a star this week. He's a great value pick we could look for to fill out that safety depth chart.

From the Shrine Game, Florida safety Trey Dean III won his team's practice player of the week and nabbed a pick (tipped ball) in the game. He's between 6'2" and 6'3" and 211 pounds. I also haven't seen him in anyone's top 100, so he's definitely a guy I'll be looking for

Tyrique Stevenson (Miami) and Riley Moss (Iowa) are two CBs whose future might be at safety. They both have impressed at their all star games and look fast and capable, but both have some tape that indicates some lack of twitch or fluidity or hips that might limit them as corners and better suit them to play safety where the game is mostly in front of them. Both have plenty of speed, so that's not the issue. But it might be interesting to monitor those guys as potential secondary fits even though we're not particularly hurting for CBs (which is a shame because this class is DEEP).

Marte Mafu, who I mentioned from the NFLPA Collegiate Bowl got a call up to the Senior Bowl and they played him at LB. He's 6'3" and 217 pounds, so he'd be very undersized at LB. It will depend how he runs, but he is a relentless player with really good athelticism and despite being from a small school fit in and looked the part at two different all star games. I'd love to add him as a special teams guy and developmental 3rd safety/dime LB type.

Speaking of Linebackers...
It's not particularly an area of need but there's a guy who transferred from Florida to Utah who is a helluvan athlete and started to put it together as a football player this year, and who looked great all week at the Shrine Game. His name is Mohamoud Diabate. He's 6'3" 230 pounds and is expected to run in the 4.5s; he got some reps at EDGE in the Shrine practices which didn't go great, but highlights that the coaches viewed him as a versatile tool who can cover, play off ball, and maybe be featured in blitz packages. As long as interviews check out and he wasn't under-productive in college due to lack of effort or desire, but more due to slower development, I'd love to see him in the later rounds, as well.

O Linemen Notes

Interior OL
I keep hearing people praise Cody Mauch, who was one of my favorites coming into the event. The narrative generally goes "he's a smaller school guy who came in and played a new position (moved inside to both guard and center after playing LT at NDSU) and he "held his own." I have watched multiple clips of stronger DLmen annihilating him. I don't understand. I think he's fallen out of the top 50 consideration and I don't like him before round 3. He doesn't have the length to play outside (32 1/8" arms would be pushing it) and he doesn't have the power to anchor inside.

Now, he's athletic and feisty AF. He has a place in the league, and I would love his personality on our unit, which I think has been lacking a little fire since some higher profile departures, but I don't think he can be a rookie starter until he can gain a bunch of functional play strength to anchor against NFL strength.

Meanwhile, the best OL down there by most eyes is Minnesota C John Michael Schmidt, who we already knew was a bigger more powerful center, but he's shown that he also moves well enough to be a second-level blocker and operate in schemes that do zone blocking or pull their centers. Given that he is a ready-made iOL, I can't imagine anyone would draft Mauch ahead of Schmidt, so that feels like a ceiling to me. He's in the 40s on both the ESPN and Athletic big boards.

Oh, and Steve Avila, G/C from TCU, has had a great run down there. I'm interested in getting a physical guy to compete at G but also as a backup plan for C. I'm just not sure Meyers is going to merit a second contract, or even develop enough to be a more consistent starter than he currently is. Avila played C last year and guard this year for TCU.

Tackles...
It's been interesting how some people have observed that Darnell Wright is the best OT down there and belongs in the top 25 (PFF podcast) while others don't even mention him at all. Others think Dawand Jones cemented himself as a first round guy by showing great movement in one day of practice at his record-breaking size. Others think he's still in round two. And still others seem to talk more about Matthew Bergeron from Syracuse (LT currently penciled in around 60-75 on various boards)

How different teams stack these three players will go a long ways toward determining who is available for the Packers in round two if they're hunting for a new RT. I'm a Darnell Wright guy all the way, for the record, between these three.

[BF004]

Here's my way too early Packer big board.

Tier 1
Jalen Carter DL

Tier 2
Myles Murphy EDGE
Tyree Wilson EDGE
Paris Johnson T

Tier 3
Will Anderson EDGE
Peter Skoronski T
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR

Tier 4
Bryan Bresee DL
Zay Flowers WR
Quinten Johnson WR
Antonio Johnson S

Tier 5
Bijan Robinson RB
Josh Downs WR
Anton Harrison T
Luke Musgrave TE
Siaki Ika DL
Jalin Hyatt WR

Tier 6
Brian Branch S
Lukas Van Ness EDGE
Michael Mayer TE
Broderick Jones T
Dalton Kincaid TE
Kammie Robinson S
Mazi Smith DL

[YoHoChecko]

Here's my way too early Packer big board.

I hate it

But actually... you would draft Zay Flowers ahead of Bryan Branch? You would draft Tyree Wilson ahead of Will Anderson? You would draft JALIN HYATT and JOSH DOWNS ahead of Broderick Jones and Lucas Van Ness? You would draft Dalton Kincaid before Darnell Washington and Luke Musgrave? (I genuinely think Kincaid is off my draft board due to age and lack of versatility and lack of elite anything)

Yeah, that board is whack. Good work being an independent thinker, though

By the way, Jayden Reed is crushing the Senior Bowl at 5'10 1/2" 190, so if you really want a small dynamic slot receiver you can have one without paying a first round price.

[BF004]

Here's my way too early Packer big board.

I hate it

But actually... you would draft Zay Flowers ahead of Bryan Branch? You would draft Tyree Wilson ahead of Will Anderson? You would draft JALIN HYATT and JOSH DOWNS ahead of Broderick Jones and Lucas Van Ness? You would draft Dalton Kincaid before Darnell Washington and Luke Musgrave? (I genuinely think Kincaid is off my draft board due to age and lack of versatility and lack of elite anything)

Yeah, that board is whack. Good work being an independent thinker, though

By the way, Jayden Reed is crushing the Senior Bowl at 5'10 1/2" 190, so if you really want a small dynamic slot receiver you can have one without paying a first round price.

All yea, except Musgrave, I had him on there higher.

But I like who I like so far, and don’t like who I don’t like.

I’m sure I’ll get pressured into the group think mold down the road. But kind of fun to actually just write it down now.