Second Year Jumps

[YoHoChecko]

The Packers have 21 players on their offseason roster who were rookies (real rookies, not "first-year players," who have spent time on a PS or brief roster appearances, but have not gained credit toward a year in the league)

13 of those players were drafted in 2022--11 by the Packers, one by the Bills and one by the Seahawks

They have two 1st round picks, a 2nd round pick, a 3rd round pick, two 4th round picks, a 5th round pick, a 6th round picks, 5 7th round picks, and 8 UDFAs.

They have 6 OL, 4 WRs, 2 DTs, 2 CBs, a LB, a RB, an EDGE, a S, a TE, a K, and a long-snapper

Below I have the available measurements and testing for the 19 non-specialists for reference (shaded figures from Pro Day; non-shaded figures from the combine)

So the question and conversation is.... who do you think will make a second year jump? Who can we expect to? Who do we NEED to? Who can we rely on and who do we need to upgrade/replace/backstop against the downside?

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[YoHoChecko]

Also, for those who don't know the height format,
6027 is 6 feet, 02 inches, and 7/8ths of an inch
5112 is 5 feet, 11 inches, and 2/8 of an inch

[BF004]

Honestly I think a lot of the progression needs to be Walker, Wyatt and Watson.

Would be nice to see the lot of Tom, Doubs and Enegbare confirm they are real NFL starters.

Then maybe hope for a surprise or two after that.

But I think you need the 3 high ceiling guys to justify their picks.

[BSA]

6027 is 6 feet, 02 inches, and 7/8ths of an inch

thx for the illumination,
For some reason I thought that was 6 feet 2 inches and 7/10th of an inch or .7
Obviously not a big difference, but appreciate the insight

[BSA]

Then maybe hope for a surprise or two after that.

Safety room is kinda sparse theses days, wondering if Tariq Carpenter can compete at SS going into 2023
Not sure on his coverage abilities, but he's a pretty big guy and was a good tackler in college.

[NCF]

I really have high hopes for Toure. Hope he ends up solidly in the rotation this year. Then, give me one more hit out of Rhyan, Walker, and Jones and I think we are sitting nice, even if it is the slow route that Nijman and others have travelled.

[Labrev]

I am bullish on all three of the WRs. I feel like they will play better with Love, for reasons I have already explained (in short, the offense will be way simpler).

I feel like Walker would alternate between good games and bad games every week, but toward the end I think he got a little bit more consistent in playing well. Definitely better when Campbell was back from injury. Hopefully a year of experience in this system translates into him taking a step. I also thought Wyatt looked really good late in the season and hope he will build on whatever made it click for him.

Dunno who Delance is but there is a lot of raw talent among that OL group. Tom is a player. Apart from him, I am crossing my fingers for just one or two of those guys to make a jump and I will feel really good about our depth.

[BSA]

Then, give me one more hit out of Rhyan

Any idea what the issues were with him ? Strength, technique ?

[Scott4Pack]

I was excited, no, I was thrilled to see the list from top to bottom and realize how many of those names have already contributed significantly to the 2022 Packers. It helps me to be very optimistic and feel that we do have a great, not good, top-to-bottom roster.

*****

I put Watson and Doubs together on the “need to progress” list, for similar reasons, especially if no veteran presence at WR is brought in. (I’m assuming that Cobb will not be back.) The things that those two can do to our offensive gives me a lot of hope. If Toure sticks and contributes, all the better. But I’m hopeful that we will draft someone and/or bring in a vet and it’ll be hard for him to overcome the talent depth.

Rhyan must prove that he isn’t a bust. Tom has already been really good. If he simply continues, that’ll be a bonus.

Wyatt needs snaps. I think he will be good.

Walker needs more experience. He’s showing well already (if he isn’t being disqualified from games). Enegbare gives me hope, at least for pass rush. And he already knows how to set the edge against the run. If he takes one or two steps forward, he can be a starter.

That is SEVEN names. They all, sans Rhyan perhaps, will be counted on. I’m amazed. If any of the others come along, that might likely make the best rookie class for the Packers in my lifetime.

[lupedafiasco]

I think Walker will make a jump. It’s tough to be much worse. Wyatt as well. It’s tough to play less and with Dean and Reed out the door is open.

I would expect Watson to actually be used with the garbage receivers gone. Doubs should step up for the same reason.

I was high on Rhyan coming out. I did expect a year one struggle going from OT to OG. We do see that take time. The suspension made him look worse but I think he is a future player. I’m not a Runyan fan at OG.

Tom probably takes a step forward with NFL conditioning. It’s always been his body type that has pushed down his draft stock.

I think Enagbare takes a step back. He was really good his rookie year for an edge guy.

Toure I have always felt could be a player. Time will tell. At the very least he’s a good #4 but I could see him succeeding in the slot.

It was a career saving draft for Gutenbumst.

[YoHoChecko]

One of the things I find really interesting here are the potential for in-house fixes at positions I've been targeting in the draft process--namely slot receiver and RT. I like thinking about it in terms of "what is needed to see them succeed" and are those things coachable/learnable or not.

Obviously, having two 7th-round picks at slot in Toure and Melton doesn't mean you stand pat, but boy those are two enticing 7th-round picks. I'm surprised no one has mentioned Melton given how often we discussed him pre-draft. Lupe put him in multiple mocks, Paco did as well, and he was one of my favorites. All throughout the Day Two and Day Three draft threads various board members would comment that Melton was still available; all of us seemed to think of him more as a 4th-5th round guy. Ultimately, he was selected one pick after we took Tariq Carpenter and about 20 picks before Toure and Rasheed Walker.

Melton and Watson were training buddies and always racing each other. Melton admits Watson was usually faster than him, but he beat him at the combine (says Watson was routinely in the high 4.2s in training). He was a very good punt returner in college, to give you an idea of his agility in addition to his speed.

So really this is a very typical rookie projection process where it's just continuing to learn the game's nuances and get a feel for it that is needed. The physical ability seems to be there. So between Toure, who has always reminded me of an Adam Thielan type of slot option, and Melton, we have guys with ability and upside who are just learning the game.

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At OT we have so many guys who have some ability. I don't know Tenuta as much, but the thought is he needs to add more strength. Do-able. He was drafted by the Bills in the 6th round. Rasheed Walker has all the talent in the world but coming off of injury didn't get to test, seems to have some technique to work on, and needs to add play strength. My concern with him, though, is play demeanor; both in work ethic and finishing mentality, he doesn't seem to have that edge. It's tough to make it as a long shot in the league if you aren't playing with that chip. Will dropping to the 7th round and being a fringe roster guy as a rookie motivate him and drive him or will he wash out?

But the wild card here is Caleb Jones. I am not typically a fan of the bigger plodding OTs but all the reports out of camp were that a) he seemed to be losing weight (down from 370 shouldn't be hard) and b) he was moving well and playing better than expected from a massive undrafted free agent. If he has taken to coaching, with a year of professional conditioning, he could really emerge. I think Walker is more talented, but Jones has a more likely path to NFL success.

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I'm not ready to declare "problem solved" with these guys, but it might have more potential for success than I would have thought.

Mostly, I agree with a lot of other observations around here. Watson needs to be more fully integrated and continue to put it together. Doubs needs to work on his concentration drops for sure, but otherwise just continue to progress. I think Rhyan could emerge from being a forgotten man to challenge for a starting OG spot and bring a more physical presence to the line. Quay is experience and instincts deficient, and will get better over time, but unsure how far his instincts will go.

Wyatt should be a huge jump for me. He flashed consistently when in the game, but the rap is he wasn't as technique and assignment sound as he should be. But, I mean, he demolished blockers in front of him with his quickness routinely. Learning how to play within scheme shouldn't be that difficult for a second-year jump.

[YoHoChecko]

Bo Melton highlights

[Backthepack4ever]

Wyatt is the biggest and most needed jump. He flashed on limited snaps. If he can build on that on a full time role we finally may have paired Clark with a real threat. Yes we had lunch pale snap eaters. Wyatt can be that dude. He's my guy that needs to emerge are a real deal player.

Walker I think is a shoe in easy step for better play. No denying the skill set now the football IQ needs to show up. Use him to his strengths and he's gonna be fine

Surprise is C Jones. The pack liked what they saw last year in the mtn. A pro off-season and he's my sneaky starting RT

[go pak go]

Our second year jumps have been disappointing lately. We just don't see the draft and develop concept work in Green Bay like it did in the old CBA days.

That being said, I think the sleeper to watch for this year is Rasheed Walker. I legitimately wouldn't be surprised if this guy is fighting for a starting position at either tackle spot.

I am also really excited for Bo Melton and Toure. I think one of them makes a jump to be a fun 3rd/4th WR guy.

The two I am most nervous about is our 2 1st round picks. I thin I am more confident that Wyatt gets it over Quay. But they do make me nervous.

[Yoop]

this is the Quay Walker I watched last season, imo it's a tough position for most rookies, specially in a zone coverage scheme, I expect a 2nd year leap from Walker, but he was better imo then some of you think

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Green Bay Packers linebacker Quay Walker, one of the team’s first-round picks, was named to the Pro Football Writers of America’s All-Rookie team on Tuesday.

Walker led the Packers with 119 tackles. He had an excellent all-around season, also finishing first with three forced fumbles, third with seven passes defensed and fifth with five tackles for losses.

Regardless of experience, 42 linebackers had at least 100 tackles in 2022. According to Sports Info Solutions and its judgment of coverage responsibilities, Walker’s 50.0 percent catch rate allowed was the second-best behind only perennial 49ers Pro Bowler Fred Warner. He was fifth in that group with six passes defensed and 10th in missed-tackle percentage (14 misses; 10.4 percent)

DT's usually don't impress to much as rookies, there facing OL players so much better then they ever faced in college, Wyatt looked pretty good at times, I think a year in the S&C and weight room will help him, I expect a second year leap.

more later, I'am doing my G D taxes, urrrrrrr