Packer OLine Prospects

[YoHoChecko]

So as we know, the Packers like benchmarks. On OLine, it's always been pretty easy to identify "Packer people," which is maybe why I nailed the drafting of Jon Runyan, Jr and Zach Tom within the past couple of years.

To be frank, it was easier and clearer under TT than under Gutey. It used to even be clear who were C prospects, G prospects, or OT prospects by looking at their agility drill times. Either Gutey started sticking a little bit less to the standards, or the standards shifted a little, or there was some dependent variable correlation happening to make it appear they cared about things they didn't (for instance if they care about the short-shuttle but not the 3-cone, those numbers often move similarly to each other).

That said, I have looked at the guys that the Packers have drafted, signed to a significant free agent deal under Gutey (Billy Turner), or retained with an extension under Gutey (Bakhtiari, Lucas Patrick, Yosh Nijman)for whom we have the full workout numbers. We don't have numbers on Josh Myers, Rasheed Walker, Jake Hansen, or Simon Stepaniak.

And then I cheat. I just cheat. Cole Madison is an outlier in so many ways. He was from Gutey's first draft and he just didn't pan out, maybe for the mental health reasons, but maybe just as a player, too. So I just don't count him.

That gives us a picture of what the Packers really target in the draft, which I'll show below. It's worth noting that the 3-cone maximum and the 10-yard maximum are boosted by Billy Turner's signing (both metrics) and Royce Newman's drafting (3-cone) which to me either shows a different standard for guys you've seen play in the NFL (Turner) or some looseness to the adherence. 7.77 was the previous 3-cone max. and 1.79 the 10-yard time. I still adhere to those in my mind since both are fairly consistently below that and the new maximum is a bit of a hike, relatively speaking. And while this thread is a little premature, because a ton of it relies on agility drills and a ton of those won't happen until Pro Days, I figured I'd start a collection of prospects who look like good fits.

So here are the Packers minimums, maximums and averages

image.png (25.78 KiB) Viewed 672 times

And here are the combine prospects who fit the bill. A couple close calls on the 10-yard that I could add in, but for the time being, why not keep it pure?

image.png (32.63 KiB) Viewed 672 times

Thanks again to [mention]BF004[/mention] for the copy/pastable sortable list; though it didn't include bench press for the OL yet at the time of my copying and pasting. Would have been nice here, but I can always add that later

EDIT: (Whoops, just realized Patterson's 3-cone and 40 are higher than the current maximums; probably not a pure fit, but don't feel like editing and re-uploading the image, haha)

[YoHoChecko]

One guy who barely missed the list (1.84 10-yard) that I'm going to watch because of a good all star game report and he hasn't done the jumps yet is Nick Broeker

image.png (3.18 KiB) Viewed 670 times

[AmishMafia]

Surprised at how few players fall into that matrix. The standards don't seem that restrictive.

Which of those metrics weeds out the most players?

[YoHoChecko]

Surprised at how few players fall into that matrix. The standards don't seem that restrictive.

Which of those metrics weeds out the most players?

The restriction right now is that so few players do the agility drills (shuttle and 3-cone) at the combine. The numbers will grow during Pro Days.

FWIW, some analyst Josh Norris has determined that the shuttle is the best predictor and that if you hit a 4.47 or below, your odds of being an NFL starter are very high. Our 4.75 cutoff is still fairly restrictive in terms of what it eliminates. The 10-yard also knocks a bunch of people out, if we actually use that (no clue).

[AmishMafia]

Thanks, by the way. I like to see analysis like this. I wonder though, do the Packers really look at this? Or do they look for players who can do certain play characteristics on the field? The only way to perform the characteristic is to have the traits as you have analyzed. Either way, it's a great way to figure out who the Packers might be looking at.

I am pulling for Mauch, dental issues be damned!

[YoHoChecko]

Thanks, by the way. I like to see analysis like this. I wonder though, do the Packers really look at this? Or do they look for players who can do certain play characteristics on the field? The only way to perform the characteristic is to have the traits as you have analyzed. Either way, it's a great way to figure out who the Packers might be looking at.

I am pulling for Mauch, dental issues be damned!

The Packers in the Ron Wolf => TT => Gutey era are one of the teams known for having thresholds for various measurable/physical characteristics.

It's really impossible to know for sure whether they're looking at the metrics we can see or something that is correlated with those variables or some composite of them. But they definitely look at some of these things and have some cutoffs.

[AmishMafia]

The restriction right now is that so few players do the agility drills (shuttle and 3-cone) at the combine. The numbers will grow during Pro Days.

FWIW, some analyst Josh Norris has determined that the shuttle is the best predictor and that if you hit a 4.47 or below, your odds of being an NFL starter are very high. Our 4.75 cutoff is still fairly restrictive in terms of what it eliminates. The 10-yard also knocks a bunch of people out, if we actually use that (no clue).

Oh, I see. I was wondering at that the absence of top names in the draft.

Interesting on the success threshold.

[YoHoChecko]

I am pulling for Mauch, dental issues be damned!

I like Mauch a lot but he has to add a lot of functional strength. He has elite agility but got knocked off the ball at the Senior Bowl. So many evaluators said he got better throughout the week and looked good, but they also kept saying "he did a great job of re-setting or re-centering" but that indicated that he was losing the initial pop over and over again.

[BSA]

.
Here's another OL prospect who will be battling at RT, Luke Tenuta
6' 8" 319, ran a 5.25 at his pro day
I noted his short shuttle time came in at 4.77 - so even though he's just outside the Packers' thresholds, they brought him to camp

From Dane Brugler's Draft Beast, Tenuta was ranked ahead of Caleb Jones, coming in at # 22 OT prospect vs Jones at # 30

SUMMARY:
A three-year starter at Virginia Tech, Tenuta was the starting left tackle in former offensive coordinator Brad Cornelsen’s zone-based offense. The son of longtime college defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta, he started opposite Christian Darrisaw for two seasons before taking over his left tackle duties in 2021, earning All-ACC honors. Tenuta is a heady, efficient blocker and relies on his instincts to aid his body control when pass blocking versus rushers in space. However, his leverage issues and limited range create soft corners and he struggles to sustain as a run blocker. Overall, Tenuta has relatively clean college tape, but his traits leave question marks about his pro transition because of his lack of length, explosiveness and power. He is a potential backup at right tackle.

Tenuta only played 7 snaps on offense and 18 on STs. He's had a year in an NFL S&C program, we'll see if he makes a leap.

[Yoop]

I new I had this book marked from several years back, Gil Brandt has never steered us wrong heres his bench marks for all the positions, and how sometimes the combine test don't tell a true picture of a player, specially OL

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2019/3/1/1 ... ando-brown

[YoHoChecko]

.
Here's another OL prospect who will be battling at RT, Luke Tenuta
6' 8" 319, ran a 5.25 at his pro day
I noted his short shuttle time came in at 4.77 - so even though he's just outside the Packers' thresholds, they brought him to camp

From Dane Brugler's Draft Beast, Tenuta was ranked ahead of Caleb Jones, coming in at # 22 OT prospect vs Jones at # 30

It does always make me chuckle how much more attention we pay to our own draft picks than guys we picked up along the way. Tenuta and Bo Melton, for instance, versus Walker and Toure at the same positions, both drafted later. Good reminder on Tenuta.

And also good reminder that it’s time for me to come through pro day results and update my spreadsheet on these guys.

[YoHoChecko]

Updated list with a bunch of Pro Day info in there. Didn't include anyone without a 3-cone, though that's a pretty arbitrary decision. I could check again for guys with shuttles and no 3-cones, but that's very rare anyway, so I doubt it would change much. Anyway, it's starting to fill out a little more for OL options

image.png (65.02 KiB) Viewed 519 times

[YoHoChecko]

I could check again for guys with shuttles and no 3-cones,

Here are the two guys

image.png (13.59 KiB) Viewed 518 times

[YoHoChecko]

We got a shuttle on Wright and it's Packer approved!

[BF004]

Just took Wright at 22 today after a trade back in a mock.

And honestly I wouldn’t yell if we took him at 15.

[YoHoChecko]

Just took Wright at 22 today after a trade back in a mock.

And honestly I wouldn’t yell if we took him at 15.

Same. I want to trade back to take him. But I want him more than I want to trade back for him.

He's in the running for my OT1. For me, Skoronski, Johnson, and Wright are all basically the same level of prospect with different strengths and weaknesses. Broderick Jones is the next tier down.

[BF004]

Just took Wright at 22 today after a trade back in a mock.

And honestly I wouldn’t yell if we took him at 15.

Same. I want to trade back to take him. But I want him more than I want to trade back for him.

He's in the running for my OT1. For me, Skoronski, Johnson, and Wright are all basically the same level of prospect with different strengths and weaknesses. Broderick Jones is the next tier down.

And Brian was at the Tennessee pro day.