Football Outsiders comes up with an annual list of their 25 likely breakout players. I've opened with the criteria which is important to keep in mind, and then copied the blurbs about the Packers players. Enjoy.
Methodology
This is the 14th anniversary of the list. We're still relying on the same things we always do: scouting, statistics, measurables, context, ceiling, expected role and what we hear from other sources. The goal is to bring your attention to players who are still developing in their second and third seasons, even after the draftniks have forgotten them. It's important to note that this list is not strictly about fantasy football (otherwise, there wouldn't be offensive linemen on it), and it's about career potential, not just the 2020 season.
Here's our full criteria:
- Drafted in the third round or later, or signed as an undrafted free agent.
- Entered the NFL between 2017 and 2019.
- Fewer than 500 career offensive or defensive snaps (except running backs, who are allowed just 300 offensive snaps).
- Have not signed a contract extension (players who have bounced around the league looking for the right spot, however, still qualify for the list).
- Age 26 or younger in 2020.
8. Jace Sternberger, TE, Green Bay Packers
Age: 24 | Draft: Pick 75 in 2019 | Career snaps: 65
Buried on the bench last year almost inexplicably behind a washed-up Jimmy Graham, Sternberger should finally get some freedom now that the only player on the tight end depth chart with a meaningful role last year is Marcedes Lewis. Sternberger is a rarity: a skill position player who has Matt LaFleur's eye. LaFleur told the team's official website in March that "[Sternberger] has contact courage. He's not afraid to put his face on people. He's a much better blocker than anyone ever thought he was coming out of Texas A&M. I'm just excited for his future."
And while Sternberger showed plenty at Texas A&M with an 832-yard, 10-touchdown outburst in his only real season of work after transferring from Kansas, this placement for him is really more about the opportunity than anything else. The Packers had no reliable targets last year other than Davante Adams -- Aaron Jones finished second on the team in targets -- so it stands to reason that Sternberger could step right in and fill a gaping No. 2 target role the Packers never properly filled after Jordy Nelson was released.
Sternberger's rookie season did not offer much of a clue about how he would play going forward, as he was mostly used as an extra blocker in three-tight-end sets, but the pedigree and opportunity combine to tell a story worth being quite optimistic about.
(seems to have missed that he went on IR)
19. Chandon Sullivan, CB, Green Bay Packers
Age: 24 | Draft: UFA in 2018 | Career snaps: 437
The Packers never trusted Sullivan with a true starting role outside, but he got playing time in their deeper packages both in the box and at slot cornerback. Sullivan was absolutely lights out in coverage in this role that mostly saw him on slot receivers, running backs and tight ends. He allowed five first downs in coverage all season and no touchdowns. He also allowed a grand total of six completions in his 21 coverage snaps.
Sullivan's draft stock was heavily impacted by his combine. He ran a 4.60 40-yard dash that essentially ended any hopes he had of being an outside corner. However, he displayed other athleticism there by placing in the 90th percentile of both the broad and vertical jumps among corners since 2000. Sullivan signed with the Eagles after the draft and made it to their practice squad in 2018. The Packers signed him away after the 2019 season and plugged him into this role, and it worked.
With Tramon Williams leaving as a free agent, the path of least resistance for the Packers is probably using Sullivan as the primary nickel corner, which is a role that wouldn't seem a stretch from what he did last year. No new corners were drafted, and 2018 second-rounder Josh Jackson has been a pretty big disappointment in his first two years in the NFL. If Jackson does get corner snaps, of course, Sullivan gets to stay in a familiar role that he excelled at in 2019.
Full List:
1. Ifeadi Odenigbo, EDGE, Minnesota Vikings
2. Dre'Mont Jones, DL, Denver Broncos
3. Preston Williams, WR, Miami Dolphins
4. Jamel Dean, CB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5. Chase Winovich, EDGE, New England Patriots
6. Miles Boykin, WR, Baltimore Ravens
7. Bobby Okereke, LB, Indianapolis Colts
8. Jace Sternberger, TE, Green Bay Packers
9. Alexander Mattison, RB, Minnesota Vikings
10. Daniel Brunskill, OL, San Francisco 49ers
11. Hunter Renfrow, WR, Las Vegas Raiders
12. Julian Love, DB, New York Giants
13. Drue Tranquill, LB, Los Angeles Chargers
14. Justin Jackson, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
15. Ja'Whaun Bentley, LB, New England Patriots
16. David Long, CB, Los Angeles Rams
17. Jalen Hurd, WR, San Francisco 49ers
18. Amani Oruwariye, CB, Detroit Lions
19. Chandon Sullivan, CB, Green Bay Packers
20. Will Dissly, TE, Seattle Seahawks
21. Darius Phillips, CB, Cincinnati Bengals
22. Foster Moreau, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
23. Steven Sims Jr., WR, Washington
24. Amani Hooker, S, Tennessee Titans
25. Connor McGovern, OL, Dallas Cowboys
Honorable mention
Blessuan Austin, CB, New York Jets
Hakeem Butler, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Blake Cashman, LB, New York Jets
Justin Layne, CB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Harrison Phillips, IDL, Buffalo Bills
Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Ben Powers, OL, Baltimore Ravens
Tim Settle, IDL, Washington
Jarrett Stidham, QB, New England Patriots
Josh Sweat, ER, Philadelphia Eagles
Link (requires ESPN+)