Rodgers Watch 2023

[Labrev]

Yeah that Rodgers extension has been a disastrous albatross and is unquestionably hands-down the worst move of Gute, Murphy, whoever was the driving force behind it.

[Pckfn23]

Yeah that Rodgers extension has been a disastrous albatross and is unquestionably hands-down the worst move of Gute, Murphy, whoever was the driving force behind it.

It isn't great, but no one can say how much impact it is having on negotiations. It could be having a ton, but it also might not be having much impact at all.

[dsr]

the packers should take on whatever can they handle of the option bonus. Gute gave the silly contract, the silly contract is tanking trade value, Gute should pony up the cash in order to get the most compensation as possible. I would much rather eat up the cap and get pick 13 than have cap space to bring in rentals or scrubs and get like a 3rd round pick

Rodgers should re-do his contract if he's serious about playing for the Jets.

Jets fans are about to find out just how accommodating Rodgers is when it comes to consideration of the team over his own needs.

why should he do that? If you had 60m in the bank from an employer, I would not expect you return the money and take less. Gute gave this awful deal, the packers should pay what they can of it. In order to set themselves up to have quality cheap labor for years to come.

Taking on 60m certainly tanks a players trade value. No matter how good the player is. I reccommend we take on what we can and demand the 1.

No reason why he should do that, unless he wants to. Perhaps given the choice, he would rather retire or play for the Packers' scout team than play for less than $60m.

Or perhaps given the choice, he would rather play for the Jets in a last hurrah and if it costs him $10m, so be it. He might feel that he can lose $10m behind the sofa and never miss it, and what he is short of is playing time - he might rather maximise his personal quality of life ahead of the odd few million dollars.

[Labrev]

Yeah that Rodgers extension has been a disastrous albatross and is unquestionably hands-down the worst move of Gute, Murphy, whoever was the driving force behind it.

It isn't great, but no one can say how much impact it is having on negotiations. It could be having a ton, but it also might not be having much impact at all.

We will find out for certain in due time. In the interim, we can use our heads. It is probably a significant factor against us.

[Drj820]

[YoHoChecko]

Multiple reports, from the same guys who said “there is no deal in place; tabs are waiting to hear from Rodgers before negotiating,” which was correct (though Rodgers informed the rams Friday and it was still reported through the weekend), have indicated the contract is involved in the negotiations.

But Rodgers has said out loud, publicly, that regardless of his decision the contract will need to be looked at (before all this). Right now, a willingness to renegotiate hurts his new team in leverage. But once he’s traded, a willingness to renegotiate helps his new team.

Now Rodgers has a clear history of negotiating a contract for his individual benefit rather than to help the team; he also has a long history of renegotiating to move that money around to the team’s preferred accounting.

If I’m Gutey, my negotiating stance is that the rights to the player/contract are between me and you. The contract is between you and him. Often in big trades New contracts are negotiated in advance. I’m sure the Jets have an idea of what Rodgers will it won’t do for them. It’s just not to their benefit to inform the Packers of that, for Rodgers or for the Jets.

So I see the contract as a negotiation chip, but not a true issue. It was a deal that almost forced a decision for the Packers and Rodgers, written with the flexibility to make that decision throughout the entire offseason. I hated it then. I think it stinks now. But there’s no rule or law that says it’s the deal Rodgers has to or will play on once traded. And that’s up to him and his new team to decide.

So I don’t think it’ll be the major hangup. It’s just a thing The Jets are using to negotiate.

[Pckfn23]

Yeah that Rodgers extension has been a disastrous albatross and is unquestionably hands-down the worst move of Gute, Murphy, whoever was the driving force behind it.

It isn't great, but no one can say how much impact it is having on negotiations. It could be having a ton, but it also might not be having much impact at all.

We will find out for certain in due time. In the interim, we can use our heads. It is probably a significant factor against us.

Yes, and we can also use our heads and see where it may not be as big of a detriment as some claim. His 2023 cap hit for the Jets would be $19 million. Also, take his 2024 contract numbers for example:

image.png (41.28 KiB) Viewed 904 times

His cap hit for the Jets would not be $40 million, it would be $32 million as the Packers would eat the signing bonus portion of that.
Then take his 2025 number:

image.png (41.81 KiB) Viewed 904 times

That would be a $51 million cap hit, but there are easy outs there if they don't want him to play for them at that number.

Of course they would want the Packers to pay for some of it. If any team could get that, they would. For 2023 and 2024 they would be getting him for an average of ~$25 million of a cap hit ($51 million in total). That would make his cap hit rank in 2023 around 11th and in 2024 around 12th.

There have been reports on it and I am sure it comes into play, but I am not certain how much it does. We may never know how much it comes into play unless we get some absurdly low compensation for trading him.

[YoHoChecko]

Question: why do we think the Jets are/would be more willing to party with a player drafted last year than a pick this year?

Are these rumors/reports just speculation or informed sources saying players are involved? Wouldn’t you rather keep the 2022 26th pick edge rusher that you traded up for (picks 34, 69, and 163 for the picks that became Johnson and Ruckert) and developed for a year than the 13th pick this year that you’re likely to spend in an offensive lineman?

I just feel like those guys don’t really represent a discount by the Jets. It’s weird that people think they’d be more attached to pick 13 than two 2nd year players

[Scott4Pack]

Here is a great article by Andrew Brandt about this trade situation. Remember that Brandt negotiated contracts for the Packers previously, for ten years. He is a guy with as much insight as almost any, I believe.

[lupedafiasco]

Peter Bitchkowski mentioned Corey Davis and I’m starting to leave into that one. They have Wilson, Moore, just signed Lazard, and Mims as well. Davis going saves them $10M and also played under LaFleur in Tennessee.

I can’t imagine us not getting their 13th pick. I just think we also gotta give up 15. We need to jump the Pats who have some similar needs. On top of that it makes trades easier.

I have been proposing on PFF we get 13, their 4th, Corey Davis, and a conditional 3rd next season that could become a 1st for 15, both our comp picks, and a 4th next year.

[Yoop]

Question: why do we think the Jets are/would be more willing to party with a player drafted last year than a pick this year?

Are these rumors/reports just speculation or informed sources saying players are involved? Wouldn’t you rather keep the 2022 26th pick edge rusher that you traded up for (picks 34, 69, and 163 for the picks that became Johnson and Ruckert) and developed for a year than the 13th pick this year that you’re likely to spend in an offensive lineman?

I just feel like those guys don’t really represent a discount by the Jets. It’s weird that people think they’d be more attached to pick 13 than two 2nd year players

confucius say, bird in hand better then flock in bush or something like that

ya know what you have in a 1 year player, whats the odds on a top 10 pick playing up to that slot, 65% ???? whatever, give me the established starter, been my opinion all along that the jets wont want to part with starter players, there bringing Rodgers in to make a push, why give up players that you'll need to do it.

I was thinking a 2nd might be the best we can do this year, I 'am starting to think it could be a 1st either this season or next and a combination of 2nd and 4th or 5th this year and maybe a 2nd tier player.

I was hoping this would be done sooner then later, ya don't always get what ya hope for

[Scott4Pack]

Here is a great article by Andrew Brandt about this trade situation. Remember that Brandt negotiated contracts for the Packers previously, for ten years. He is a guy with as much insight as almost any, I believe.

The short story, in Brandt’s view, is that the team that is most satisfied with the status quo has the upper hand. That would absolutely be the Green Bay Packers.

[bud fox]

Packers can not have Rodgers return to the team. I don't how anybody can't recognize this.

[YoHoChecko]

Peter Bitchkowski mentioned Corey Davis and I’m starting to leave into that one. They have Wilson, Moore, just signed Lazard, and Mims as well. Davis going saves them $10M and also played under LaFleur in Tennessee.

The thing I don't like about Davis is that he's a pricey 1-year flier. We get him at $10.5 M for 2023 and that's it. The way things are going, I bet they'd add void years and restructure it so we get a guy for 1 year and pay for him over two years. That's just not where this team is. Davis has long been considered a likely cap casualty for the Jets. We'd basically be taking on a contract they're looking to get rid of. He's totally fine and all; as a player, I'd be interested in bringing him in for a free agent visit and seeing what the contract demands/expectations are. But he doesn't make a ton of sense for this deal, this team, this moment. If I'm paying vet money for a WR, I want someone that isn't an underperforming question mark, but more of a savvy vet

[APB]

Packers can not have Rodgers return to the team. I don't how anybody can't recognize this.

You’re basing your position on a very unlikely and last ditch outcome. There are multiple more likely and probable outcomes that all favor the Packers org in leveraging their position with this particular transaction.

[Bogey]

Andrew Brandt:

Because, at the end of the day, here is the bottom line on this trade: Can you imagine Jets GM Joe Douglas saying to his owner, coach, offensive coordinator, Lazard and fan base, Sorry, the Packers wanted too much. We’re going to pass on Rodgers.

Neither can I.

[YoHoChecko]

Packers can not have Rodgers return to the team. I don't how anybody can't recognize this.

You’re basing your position on a very unlikely and last ditch outcome. There are multiple more likely and probable outcomes that all favor the Packers org in leveraging their position with this particular transaction.

I promise you that it's worse to be the team opening training camp with no viable starting QB than it is to be the team opening training camp with a media headache. Rodgers is free to show up, but the team will hold him off the field and excuse him from any mandatory things, if it were to go that long. Nor does showing up actually force someone's hand.

At some point, the Jets need to PREPARE their team to start playing football this season. The Packers can push retirement or threaten to trade his rights cheap to a team who just wants to control the asset if he unretires toward the start of the season. But it will never get that far. Because the Jets need their QB to start training camp.

I think Gutey is probably standing firm that he wants pick 13+ if the trade is going to happen before the draft. And if it doesn't happen before the draft, it won't happen until June 1st, when the cap situation is more flexible and maybe they can even help pay some if they want to incorporate that into future bargaining. That doesn't necessarily mean no deal announced before June 1st. But no deal processed before then.

So to me it's either before April 27 or after June 1. And that deadline structure sets up nicely for expiring assets and offers in negotiation.

[bud fox]

Okay so the Packers pay but sit aaron rodgers - pay you but stay home.

I don't think you all realise the effect of this.

It will be every single press conference for years will be remembered by what they did to hof aaron rodgers.

This isn't a video game.

The most valuable thing is to just get a nice clean break - it is more valuable than a first round pick or any pick.

[YoHoChecko]

Okay so the Packers pay but sit aaron rodgers - pay you but stay home.

I don't think you all realise the effect of this.

It will be every single press conference for years will be remembered by what they did to hof aaron rodgers.

This isn't a video game.

The most valuable thing is to just get a nice clean break - it is more valuable than a first round pick or any pick.

What are you talking about?

The Jets need Rodgers before the packers need to get rid of him. Period. That’s the whole story. They aren’t going two weeks into training camp without a QB. He can be wherever he wants DURING THE OFFSEASON. No one’s taking this all the way to the season. It can’t get there.

[bud fox]

Okay so the Packers pay but sit aaron rodgers - pay you but stay home.

I don't think you all realise the effect of this.

It will be every single press conference for years will be remembered by what they did to hof aaron rodgers.

This isn't a video game.

The most valuable thing is to just get a nice clean break - it is more valuable than a first round pick or any pick.

What are you talking about?

The Jets need Rodgers before the packers need to get rid of him. Period. That’s the whole story. They aren’t going two weeks into training camp without a QB. He can be wherever he wants DURING THE OFFSEASON. No one’s taking this all the way to the season. It can’t get there.

They have a QB, they could potentially draft another QB, they could get a vet.

They can easily build marketing stories around all these options.

The Jets can walk away from Rodgers and get another option. What do the packers do? They can trade to the jets, cut Rodgers or keep him and tell him to stay away from the team.