If you like WR Quentin Johnston- check out this one
Missed tackle rate, tough to bring him down
2023 NFL Draft Discussion
Moderators: NCF, salmar80, BF004, APB, Packfntk
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YoHoChecko
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Average Depth of Target. The thinking (and data) being that it's hard to force missed tackles on deep balls than it is on the short-to-intermediate.
That said, there are still some awesome unlabeled missed tackle rates at lower depths of target whose names I would love to know. Unclear how they chose which names to list or not list, given the absolute randomness of including guys like Chambers and Wicks, so it's not top prospects or anything.
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YoHoChecko
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YoHoChecko
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I just want to state for the record that I was the first on the Mingo train; way before any Packers Twitter I've seen. All aboard. He's perfect for us.
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Backthepack4ever
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I have like Rice for awhile. Last fall I said his hand catching and attacking the football was the best I've seen in a long time.
The concern was his speed but I think he is fine there also. Could be a day 2 packer gem like many before him
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YoHoChecko
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I could definitely be wrong; I have been before--especially when it comes to disagreeing with BF on WR prospects.
But I just don't see it with Rice. I don't see separation. I don't see special traits. He's a guy, for me, that if everything works out perfectly, and he's in a good system fit with a good QB who likes him and he's given ample opportunities and targets due to necessity, his absolute ceiling is James Jones, which is a fine player for sure. But that's if everything works out.
I see him as a guy much more likely to be Laquan Treadwell or Josh Doctson, these physical contested catch guys who had great college careers but simply don't get open against NFL defenses. I guess the most likely scenario is somewhere between those two options, a Doctson floor and a James Jones ceiling. Just not the sort of guy I get super hyped about; a guy that's fine to have.
But I just don't see it with Rice. I don't see separation. I don't see special traits. He's a guy, for me, that if everything works out perfectly, and he's in a good system fit with a good QB who likes him and he's given ample opportunities and targets due to necessity, his absolute ceiling is James Jones, which is a fine player for sure. But that's if everything works out.
I see him as a guy much more likely to be Laquan Treadwell or Josh Doctson, these physical contested catch guys who had great college careers but simply don't get open against NFL defenses. I guess the most likely scenario is somewhere between those two options, a Doctson floor and a James Jones ceiling. Just not the sort of guy I get super hyped about; a guy that's fine to have.
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YoHoChecko
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So let me first caveat what I'm saying with the downside.
Mingo went to the same school and program as AJ Brown. Brown broke out as a sophomore and had two highly productive years. Mingo broke out as a senior and his best year didn't sniff Brown's. Mingo does not seem to have figured out the best utilization for his skills and feet--his route running needs refinement and work.
Analytics have said that WRs who stay in school through their senior year have a higher bust rate, but I'm not sure how that adjusts since COVID and later NIL led to players staying in school longer, but the late breakout is still an analytics red flag. I admit all of that.
THAT SAID, when you look at Mingo's frame and tools, you see a lot of AJ Brown. When you look at his deployment (big slot, moves around the formation, occasionally in the backfield, short depth of target, you see a poor man's Deebo Samuel style of player. Then you consider that when targeted in large numbers, he broke the Ole Miss single-game record for receiving yards. That's just one game. But DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, Elijah Moore. Single game receiving yard crown is Mingo's.
So that's what I'm looking at here. A guy with the upside of a Brown, the utilization of a Deebo, and a downside/floor of, well, basically Lazard--a top notch blocking big slot. He has better explosives and speed than Lazard by a lot, but he's also 2-3 inches shorter (though heavier). His hands are not as reliable as Brown's, but it looks like concentration, not stone hands--his contested catch ability is up there with any of them. So hands are more Lazard, as well. Rice is probably a better catcher and more consistent contested catch guy, but mostly because he has more contested catches. Reminds me a ton of Treylon Burkes from last year, too. Similarly unrefined, big, physical. But Mingo is faster and Burkes had freak arm length.
Anyway, here's what they look like by the traits:
Mingo went to the same school and program as AJ Brown. Brown broke out as a sophomore and had two highly productive years. Mingo broke out as a senior and his best year didn't sniff Brown's. Mingo does not seem to have figured out the best utilization for his skills and feet--his route running needs refinement and work.
Analytics have said that WRs who stay in school through their senior year have a higher bust rate, but I'm not sure how that adjusts since COVID and later NIL led to players staying in school longer, but the late breakout is still an analytics red flag. I admit all of that.
THAT SAID, when you look at Mingo's frame and tools, you see a lot of AJ Brown. When you look at his deployment (big slot, moves around the formation, occasionally in the backfield, short depth of target, you see a poor man's Deebo Samuel style of player. Then you consider that when targeted in large numbers, he broke the Ole Miss single-game record for receiving yards. That's just one game. But DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, Elijah Moore. Single game receiving yard crown is Mingo's.
So that's what I'm looking at here. A guy with the upside of a Brown, the utilization of a Deebo, and a downside/floor of, well, basically Lazard--a top notch blocking big slot. He has better explosives and speed than Lazard by a lot, but he's also 2-3 inches shorter (though heavier). His hands are not as reliable as Brown's, but it looks like concentration, not stone hands--his contested catch ability is up there with any of them. So hands are more Lazard, as well. Rice is probably a better catcher and more consistent contested catch guy, but mostly because he has more contested catches. Reminds me a ton of Treylon Burkes from last year, too. Similarly unrefined, big, physical. But Mingo is faster and Burkes had freak arm length.
Anyway, here's what they look like by the traits:
- image.png (20.11 KiB) Viewed 622 times
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YoHoChecko
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Also, if we don't get Mingo, there's this guy CJ Johnson from East Carolina who is a VERY similar player, was suspended for half a season for undisclosed rules violations, and is recovering from an injury so we got no athletic testing in the pre-draft process, so maybe a 7th-round flier.
Mike Wahle breaking down the TEs
I think he starts at the 8 minute mark with Mayer
I think he starts at the 8 minute mark with Mayer
IT. IS. TIME
Here's a podcast from Greg Cosell also breaking down the TEs
https://www.rosstucker.com/podcasts/ros ... l-podcast/
https://www.rosstucker.com/podcasts/ros ... l-podcast/
IT. IS. TIME
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YoHoChecko
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I dropped this one in here in case any of the draftniks have an opinion on OT Rasheed Walker from last year
SUMMARY from Brugler:
A three-year starter at Penn State, Walker lined up at left tackle in offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich’s offense. He was one of the prizes of signing day in 2018 and started 32 consecutive games at left tackle over the last three years before a knee injury sidelined him toward the end of the 2021 season. Walker has intriguing physical traits with a ready-made frame, quick feet and body flexibility. However, he doesn’t consistently play under control and has a long list of bad habits (over-setting, poor angles, stopping his feet) and will require an influential offensive line coach in the NFL to develop his technique. Overall, Walker has the frame,raw power and body fluidity to be effective, but he too often sacrifices his balance and loses his bearings to stay connected. He has starting talent, but he must become more detail oriented to be a better-than-replaceable NFL starter.
SUMMARY from Brugler:
A three-year starter at Penn State, Walker lined up at left tackle in offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich’s offense. He was one of the prizes of signing day in 2018 and started 32 consecutive games at left tackle over the last three years before a knee injury sidelined him toward the end of the 2021 season. Walker has intriguing physical traits with a ready-made frame, quick feet and body flexibility. However, he doesn’t consistently play under control and has a long list of bad habits (over-setting, poor angles, stopping his feet) and will require an influential offensive line coach in the NFL to develop his technique. Overall, Walker has the frame,raw power and body fluidity to be effective, but he too often sacrifices his balance and loses his bearings to stay connected. He has starting talent, but he must become more detail oriented to be a better-than-replaceable NFL starter.
IT. IS. TIME
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YoHoChecko
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Fun draft
Don’t love or even like Bryce Ford-Wheaton but good group overall.
Don’t love or even like Bryce Ford-Wheaton but good group overall.
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YoHoChecko
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So he’s one of those guys whose his profile screams 4th round with upside, but there’s this unteachable X factor about how much they WANT it. How hard they want to finish. How whistle to whistle they are.
Walker has the talent to develop into an All Pro but on his current trajectory is a guy who looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane. He reminds me of that guy we drafted n the 5th round 2009, Jamon Meredith, who actually ended up having a below average career as a rotational tackle and eventually starting guard, but bounced around the league for several years.
If something unknowable ever sparks, and he becomes dedicated to making his living playing football and adjusts his internal motivation, we have a helluva player. If it doesn’t, he might be 27 before he ever plays a meaningful down if at all.
It’s all about the demeanor, attitude, and commitment with him.