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I don't understand trading up to take a WR. The Packers don't need a starting WR, they need depth.
Where is this WR going to play? Certainly not WR#1. That is Christian Watson. Unless Watson gets hurt, he is going to start every game at WR#1. There is only a very very very small chance that this #10 pick will ever be better than Watson.
Well how about WR#2? Again, the Packers have Doubs who has been better as a rookie than anyone not named Watson or Adams. Now it is possible that this rookie 10th pick will be better than the 2nd year Doubs, but it is not likely. This #10 pick might wind up as the starter in the 2025 season, but only at the expense of Doubs sitting on the bench. Either way, you have starting talent sitting on the bench.
Of course a team needs a slot receiver, but slot receiver is a part time position as there are times when a team wants 2 TE's or 2 RB's on the field. Do you really want this #10 pick in a part time position?
This team has needs. Specifically pass rusher, safety, RT and TE. Gary is coming off an ACL. In the last few years we have seen Bakh, Jennings and Tonyan return from an ACL but none were what they were their first year after their injury. If you are going to move up, get the best pass rusher. It is conceivable that you could take a RT at #15. Otherwise trade back and get a safety and a TE from that #15 pick and hope that you can hit on a pass rusher in the 2nd round, start Tom at RT and hope that someone deserves the swing OT job.
I kind of get all that, but 3 WRs are on the field maybe 50-60% of snaps? WR3 is a starter. And JSN can play outside, he isn’t just a slot guy. Watson and Doubs still got a ways to go to be proven and show durability. We’d have zero issue getting all 3 the ball plenty. And I kind of hate the WR1, WR2, WR3 stuff. Like I said 3 WRs start these days, not even these days, but for like 20 years now. Get 3 good starters, minimum if you can.
And Gary’s ACL should have basically no impact on the draft. Sorry but pick 15, I care very little about a 6 month need if it isn’t the same as a 9+ month need. That’s what a stop gap FA would be for. Long term sure we need an edge, but Gary’s injury doesn’t play into that.
I kind of get all that, but 3 WRs are on the field maybe 50-60% of snaps? WR3 is a starter. And JSN can play outside, he isn’t just a slot guy.
I think we'll see more 12/21 personnel post-Rodgers... but I agree there's still plenty of snaps in 11 to warrant a deep WR room
From what I've read - I'm not certain that JSN can reliably beat NFL CBs on the perimeter. He excelled in the middle of the field, in part because he had 2 NFL-caliber studs on the outside - keeping the safeties busy and opening up space. Not many NFL teams can offer that option
I've also read questions about whether JSN has the deep speed to scare NFL DCs outside.
Great prospect, he's still ascending: - but he doesn't seem a great fit in MLF offense that prefers a bigger, stouter slot. Look at the 3 slots for MLF and his mentors: Lazard, Kupp, Deebo. That points more toward Mingo, who you snagged in the 4th. Nice work
I wouldn't pull the trigger at 15 for that JSN skill set and I wouldn't trade up for it if I was drafting for Green Bay.
I just want to say that just because we need a TE more than we need a WR doesn’t mean that we should draft a TE before we draft WR.
The draft is about positional value and best players available. It’s about the depth of different positions within a draft class. It’s about who has rare skills versus replaceable skills.
JSN might be rare and certain enough to trade up for. Mayer May be replaceable enough by a LaPorta or Kraft later that his value diminishes.
Biggest need is almost unrelated to best draft value. You address any need with the best value, not biggest need with whatever value
I just want to say that just because we need a TE more than we need a WR doesn’t mean that we should draft a TE before we draft WR.
The draft is about positional value and best players available. It’s about the depth of different positions within a draft class. It’s about who has rare skills versus replaceable skills.
JSN might be rare and certain enough to trade up for. Mayer May be replaceable enough by a LaPorta or Kraft later that his value diminishes.
Biggest need is almost unrelated to best draft value. You address any need with the best value, not biggest need with whatever value
thats why a good GM will maneuver up or down to align draft value with positional needs, it's why I loved what Guty did to draft Alexander and disliked what he did when drafting Gary, Gary seemed like a Mike Smith pick.
And Gary’s ACL should have basically no impact on the draft. Sorry but pick 15, I care very little about a 6 month need if it isn’t the same as a 9+ month need. That’s what a stop gap FA would be for. Long term sure we need an edge, but Gary’s injury doesn’t play into that.
I’d say that Edge definitely fits into our draft needs. The only question is where. Yeah, Gary’s injury is still a short term concern. Yeah, we have a couple of guys we have high hopes for. But we can definitely improve our Edge situation. If a very talented guy (very high on our Packer board) is available at any pick and he fits our scheme, I say that you draft him. If a WR, like JSN perhaps, also is very high on our board, you might prefer to pick him in stead. But that’s if the two or three guys at different position are equally high on your board. If you rate the Edge higher than any of the others, you trust your scouts and system and pick the Edge.
Best player available, in a pure sense. Otherwise, are we much more needy at WR or TE than Edge, Safety, or a couple of other positions?
If I am GM and I have one 1st and 2-3 seconds, I don’t insist upon a WR or TE in round 1. But I would hope to put at least two offensive skill players into that mix, with the hope they can and must contribute in 2023.
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Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus reviewed the first-round picks for every team from 2015 through 2022.
The Packers rank among the best five teams over the past eight years.
Packers Average Draft Position during that time frame was 24.5, so they were outside the Top Tier many of those years.
Mingo is one of the most intriguing prospects in the 2023 NFL Draft with his traits profile of size/stride length/physical strength/competitiveness/formation versatility. Mingo is a big, physical, smooth receiver with strong hands and competitive run-after-catch traits who can line up in multiple locations within the offensive formation, including the backfield.
Mingo has a physical presence to his game, and he consistently made tough hands catches working between the numbers and outside the numbers. Watching Mingo’s 2022 video, the player that came to my mind was Deebo Samuel in terms of size, alignment versatility and run-after-catch competitiveness (there is no question Samuel is special, so this is more of a stylistic comparison than an exact comparison).
Mingo might be more of a vertical dimension than Samuel, but both bring a physical dimension to an offense.
"Washington will be one of the most intriguing prospects in the 2023 draft class, given that his pedestrian 2022 tape and his overall measurables and outstanding combine performance do not match. Washington has rare size and overall length for the TE position, in addition to uncommon straight-line speed as evidenced by his 40-yard dash time, but his tape showed more of a heavy, at times awkward, mover, who played at one speed without the needed ability to separate and stretch the seam as a vertical dimension.
Washington showed flashes of playing to his straight-line speed, and that, along with his rare measurables for the position (his short shuttle time was among the best in the last decade for TE), will get coaches excited. One thing that Washington can do effectively with his rare combination of size and strength is block in the run game, and he showed that ability from different alignments.
Overall, Washington has rare athletic measurables for his size, and that will likely get him drafted in the top 40, despite limited receiving production in his three years at Georgia. My sense is he will be seen as an ascending talent with his high-level traits with his best football still to come."
Watching Mingo’s 2022 video, the player that came to my mind was Deebo Samuel in terms of size, alignment versatility and run-after-catch competitiveness (there is no question Samuel is special, so this is more of a stylistic comparison than an exact comparison).
Mingo might be more of a vertical dimension than Samuel, but both bring a physical dimension to an offense.
When you look at his deployment (big slot, moves around the formation, occasionally in the backfield, short depth of target, you see a poor man's Deebo Samuel style of player. Then you consider that when targeted in large numbers, he broke the Ole Miss single-game record for receiving yards. That's just one game. But DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, Elijah Moore. Single game receiving yard crown is Mingo's.
So that's what I'm looking at here. A guy with the upside of a Brown, the utilization of a Deebo, and a downside/floor of, well, basically Lazard--a top notch blocking big slot.
"Washington will be one of the most intriguing prospects in the 2023 draft class, given that his pedestrian 2022 tape and his overall measurables and outstanding combine performance do not match. Washington has rare size and overall length for the TE position, in addition to uncommon straight-line speed as evidenced by his 40-yard dash time, but his tape showed more of a heavy, at times awkward, mover, who played at one speed without the needed ability to separate and stretch the seam as a vertical dimension.
Washington showed flashes of playing to his straight-line speed, and that, along with his rare measurables for the position (his short shuttle time was among the best in the last decade for TE), will get coaches excited. One thing that Washington can do effectively with his rare combination of size and strength is block in the run game, and he showed that ability from different alignments.
Overall, Washington has rare athletic measurables for his size, and that will likely get him drafted in the top 40, despite limited receiving production in his three years at Georgia. My sense is he will be seen as an ascending talent with his high-level traits with his best football still to come."
Watching Washington change direction is like watching a steam train come to a stop.
Watching Mingo’s 2022 video, the player that came to my mind was Deebo Samuel in terms of size, alignment versatility and run-after-catch competitiveness (there is no question Samuel is special, so this is more of a stylistic comparison than an exact comparison).
Mingo might be more of a vertical dimension than Samuel, but both bring a physical dimension to an offense.
When you look at his deployment (big slot, moves around the formation, occasionally in the backfield, short depth of target, you see a poor man's Deebo Samuel style of player. Then you consider that when targeted in large numbers, he broke the Ole Miss single-game record for receiving yards. That's just one game. But DK Metcalf, AJ Brown, Elijah Moore. Single game receiving yard crown is Mingo's.
So that's what I'm looking at here. A guy with the upside of a Brown, the utilization of a Deebo, and a downside/floor of, well, basically Lazard--a top notch blocking big slot.
To me, it looked like Darnell Washington is just real stiff in the hips. Doesn't hurt his straight line speed, but makes him look sluggish when trying to change direction. Combine tape was great, except for the "releases" in some drills.
Blocks REAL well, tho, has great hands and having straight line speed is better than not having it. I just worry he'd end up being limited in the passing game on the next level due to limited number of effetive routes. I'd pick him late 2nd or in 3rd.
What's the mood here on Drew Sanders? I've wanted a player like this for some time, sort of a "chess piece" in the front seven: off-ball or EDGE. He did that for Arkansas.
But I suspect we more-or-less had that same idea in mind when we drafted Quay Walker last year. Sanders is also more LB than EDGE at the moment, though I must say that between the two of them right now, I like his EDGE game better than Walker's.
I might have still been willing to take him if not also for the fact that we re-signed Campbell and can expect him to play for two more seasons, not to mention McDuffie is a capable #3 guy. And I feel like that's a mistake we make too often (draft enticing athletes we don't actually have a role for). So he'd be in Year 3 by the time he has a path to starting, and since he's likely not a Round 1 pick, you can't tack an extra year onto his rookie deal.
So he highly intrigues my sensibilities, but I have to acknowledge that he doesn't make much sense for us.
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“... Yet so many allow their leaders to be terrorists.”—Magneto
What's the mood here on Drew Sanders? I've wanted a player like this for some time, sort of a "chess piece" in the front seven: off-ball or EDGE. He did that for Arkansas.
But I suspect we more-or-less had that same idea in mind when we drafted Quay Walker last year. Sanders is also more LB than EDGE at the moment, though I must say that between the two of them right now, I like his EDGE game better than Walker's.
I might have still been willing to take him if not also for the fact that we re-signed Campbell and can expect him to play for two more seasons, not to mention McDuffie is a capable #3 guy. And I feel like that's a mistake we make too often (draft enticing athletes we don't actually have a role for). So he'd be in Year 3 by the time he has a path to starting, and since he's likely not a Round 1 pick, you can't tack an extra year onto his rookie deal.
So he highly intrigues my sensibilities, but I have to acknowledge that he doesn't make much sense for us.
Yeah I want a guy who's more edge than off ball in this general vein. That's why I like Nolan Smith and Nick Hampton. We can't take an off-ball LB early. We can't. Taking Walker last year and signing Campbell is already a TON of resources for a lower-value position. I'd be VERY disappointed if we spend a top-100 pick on anyone who primarily plays off ball LB this year.
One more Mingo blurb, this time from Dane Brugler's 2023 Beast
SUMMARY: A four-year starter at Ole Miss, Mingo lined up across the formation in head coach Lane Kiffin’s offense with 61.3 percent of his targets coming between the numbers (slants, in-breakers etc.). He joined Jalin Hyatt as the only two SEC receivers with 50-plus catches and 16.5-plus yards per reception in 2022 (he broke Elijah Moore’s single-game receiving record with a 247-yard performance vs. Vanderbilt). A smooth, physical presence with strong hands, Mingo is a balanced athlete in his releases, routes and at the catch point. He is a long-strider who needs a beat to build up his speed and must fine-tune areas of his game, including his efficiency at the top of the stem.
Overall, Mingo has only average deception and separation quickness, but with his size, pacing and competitive ball skills, he has the body
control and upside that has the attention of NFL teams. He has starting potential in the right situation.
SUMMARY: A four-year starter at Iowa, LaPorta was the featured target in offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz’s offense, evenly splitting his snaps between inline/backfield (49.4 percent) and slot/wide (50.6 percent). At a program known for producing NFL tight ends, he became just the second Hawkeye to be named the Big Ten’s Tight End of the Year and finished as the program’s all-time receptions leader (153) at the position. Although he is more quick than fast as a route runner,LaPorta makes himself available mid-route because of his lower-body quickness and athletic fluidity. As a blocker, his functional strength and consistency must improve, but Iowa asks its tight ends to do everything (LaPorta even took three snaps out of the wildcat) and scouts rave about his competitive demeanor. Overall,LaPorta is an average point-of-attack blocker and his lack of length hurts his success rate in contested situations, but he plays with outstanding quickness and body rhythm with soft hands as a pass catcher.
He is in the Austin Hooper mold and projects as a low-end TE1 or high-end TE2 on an NFL depth chart.
SUMMARY: Coming off the bench at Iowa, Van Ness was primarily an edge rusher in defensive coordinator Phil Parker’s four-man front, but he also saw significant snaps inside over the B-gap. The Iowa coaches reward seniority, so John Waggoner and Joe Evans started at defensive end last season, but Van Ness had more defensive snaps than either and led the Hawkeyes in tackles for loss and sacks. Regardless of alignment, Van Ness has high-end tools with his length and play strength, which allow him to wear down blockers as a pass rusher or stack, locate and play off blocks in the run game. A hockey player most of his life, he credits his time on the ice for developing his balance, urgent play style and competitive toughness. Overall, Van Ness needs coached up with his pass-rush construction and overall pacing, but he is an ascending player and competes like a grizzly bear with his fierce power and explosive twitch. He has the upside of an impactful NFL starter with inside/outside versatility, regardless of scheme
SUMMARY: A two-year starter at Georgia, Smith played the “Jack” linebacker position in head coach Kirby Smart’s 3-3-5 base scheme. The former No. 1 overall recruit in the 2019 class, he never reached 4.0 sacks in any of his four seasons in Athens. However, he was often asked to read or drop, and his sack production is a misleading indicator of his impact. With his range and physicality, Smith can scrape and stack blocks in the run game and does his best work on read plays because of his quick-twitch reaction burst. His dynamic get-off and loose movements make him slippery as a pass rusher, but his hand exchange lacks polish at the top of the rush. Overall, Smith must improve his pass-rush plan and overall efficiency, but he is an explosive, flexible athlete with powerful hands and above-average football character. He has the diverse tools to be a well-rounded edge rusher, ideally suited for a 3-4 base scheme.
