2023 NFL Draft Discussion

[BF004]

Working on building my own mock draft simulator.

Finally got to the point where I can do a full mock up.

Not half bad if I do say so myself.

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[BSA]

One more from Dane Brugler

Safety Brian Branch

SUMMARY: A three-year starter at Alabama, Branch played the “star” nickel position in head coach Nick Saban’s multiple scheme, lining up against the slot and playing in the box (the same role Minkah Fitzpatrick popularized). An extension of Saban on the field, the coaches gradually added to his plate, and he was always up to the task, finishing the 2022 season as the only FBS player with 90-plus tackles, 14.0-plus tackles for loss and at least two interceptions (only Alabama defender with multiple interceptions in 2022). Equally athletic and physical, Branch has terrific short area quickness with the pattern recognition and run/pass anticipation to match up in a variety of ways. Though you wish he was bigger, his lack of size wasn’t a deterrent on tape, and he posted a high batting average as a tackler in college (an elite 2.3 percent missed tackle rate at Alabama). Overall, Branch might not have elite size/speed measurables, but he is above average in almost every other category NFL teams covet with his well-rounded game to run, cover and tackle. He projects as a starting nickel in the NFL and offers hybrid versatility across the secondary, similar in ways to Miami’s Jevon Holland.

GRADE: 1st Round No. 17 overall

[BSA]

And here is BF004's guy JSN

SUMMARY: A two-year starter at Ohio State, Smith-Njigba was the slot receiver in head coach Ryan Day’s multiple spread offense and made a living inside (88.3 percent of his snaps the last two seasons came in the slot). Although 2022 was basically a lost year for him because of his hamstring injury, he had a prolific 2021 season with the Big Ten single-season record for receiving yards (1,606) and a memorable Rose Bowl performance with an NCAA bowl-record 347 receiving yards. Although he played in a favorable offensive situation in Columbus, including alongside first-round receivers Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, Smith-Njigba is a crisp,controlled route runner with the hand strength to focus and snatch the football. Although he doesn’t have the speed to run away from coverage, he skillfully throttles his speeds and uses different sink/body techniques to leverage defensive backs out of position and create pockets of separation. Overall, Smith-Njigba isn’t an elite size/speed athlete and won’t be an ideal fit for every role, but he is a crafty route runner with smooth short-area quickness and tracking talent to be a sure-handed target.
He projects as an early NFL starter who is at his best in the slot

GRADE: 1st Round (No. 18 overall)

[BF004]

I think I kind of agree with this. I think more will go round 1, but I'm down to pretty much JSN, then maybe Zay Flower, as first round caliber WR's.

[TheSkeptic]

Foskey with a 9.6 RAS is sitting there and the Packers have Gary coming off an ACL and Preston Smith who will be 31 in November and last year's 5th round rookie.

Sorry, but the Packers need a starting OLB a lot more than a starting slot receiver with no high gear.

[BF004]

Working on building my own mock draft simulator.

Finally got to the point where I can do a full mock up.

Not half bad if I do say so myself.


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Lions taking two edges, I know I needed to, but need to add logic for changing team needs based on previously drafted players (Also had one with the Texans taking Bryce Young and Levis )

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[Madcity_matt]

Foskey with a 9.6 RAS is sitting there and the Packers have Gary coming off an ACL and Preston Smith who will be 31 in November and last year's 5th round rookie.

Sorry, but the Packers need a starting OLB a lot more than a starting slot receiver with no high gear.

I think JSN can be a really good player, but I expect us to go EDGE or DL with the pick unless the scouts are over the moon about a player another position.

[lupedafiasco]

Foskey with a 9.6 RAS is sitting there and the Packers have Gary coming off an ACL and Preston Smith who will be 31 in November and last year's 5th round rookie.

Sorry, but the Packers need a starting OLB a lot more than a starting slot receiver with no high gear.

I think JSN can be a really good player, but I expect us to go EDGE or DL with the pick unless the scouts are over the moon about a player another position.

I think JSN helps us the most but the more I look I think priority #1 is to correct the cap which means cutting off our bad contracts. Preston Smith has gotta come off our books. We are paying too much for an aging and average edge. We can get a cheap edge to develop and be ready in case we don’t want to pay Gary for a 3rd contract.

I really want Murphy. He’s experienced and extremely young with a ton of athleticism. I’m not against Nolan Smith but I think he’s got the potential of being Micah Parsons level good as a hybrid LB. I’m really not a fan of Van Ness. I think he ends up being Gary where he’s pretty mediocre and develops eventually but o think the early return is not good on him.

[YoHoChecko]

[Labrev]

PFF locked down again. Used nfl mock draft database, one of my better ones.

1.15 Myles Murphy EDGE | Clemson
2.45 Keeanu Benton DL | Wisconsin
3.78 Tucker Kraft TE | South Dakota State
4.122 Jonathan Mingo WR | Mississippi {TRADE}
4.134 DeWayne McBride RB | UAB {TRADE}
5.149 Luke Schoonmaker TE | Michigan
5.170 Anthony Johnson Jr. S | Iowa State
5.178 Xavier Hutchinson WR | Iowa State {TRADE}

'Only flaw is no OL, probably should have taken one instead of the RB.

[BF004]

Thanks [mention]BSA[/mention] for posting all those. Fun reads through of a lot of our potential targets.

[YoHoChecko]

PFF locked down again. Used nfl mock draft database, one of my better ones.

1.15 Myles Murphy EDGE | Clemson
2.45 Keeanu Benton DL | Wisconsin
3.78 Tucker Kraft TE | South Dakota State
4.122 Jonathan Mingo WR | Mississippi {TRADE}
4.134 DeWayne McBride RB | UAB {TRADE}
5.149 Luke Schoonmaker TE | Michigan
5.170 Anthony Johnson Jr. S | Iowa State
5.178 Xavier Hutchinson WR | Iowa State {TRADE}

'Only flaw is no OL, probably should have taken one instead of the RB.

Nah, McBride is pretty cool.

But the thing about these simulators is how slow they are to react to updating draft boards.

Obviously, things go wild on draft day, so you can't say it would never happen, but I would be surprised if rounds 4 and 5 have this much availability; let alone, I'm pretty confused how you got those extra picks without an apparent trade back? Are you assuming we traded Rodgers for a 4th and 5th?

[Labrev]

, but I would be surprised if rounds 4 and 5 have this much availability; let alone, I'm pretty confused how you got those extra picks without an apparent trade back? Are you assuming we traded Rodgers for a 4th and 5th?

I traded down in Round 4 iirc. I moved down only a few picks, got an extra 4 and 5.

[BSA]

Thanks @BSA for posting all those. Fun reads through of a lot of our potential targets.

my pleasure and if anybody wants to see any others, I'm happy to oblige.

[BSA]

Every teams best UDFA...a reminder that there are great players throughout the draft and after. Some are now HOF guys
The Packers have had more than their share- including BOTH starting CBs on the XLV Super Bowl Championship squad

[BSA]

One more from Brugler

DL Brian Bresee
6'5 302 lbs and played all across the DL- 1-3-5 tech. That kind of versatility is prized in Titletown

SUMMARY: A three-year starter at Clemson, Bresee was primarily a 3-technique defensive tackle in coordinator Wes Goodwin’s multiple fronts, also seeing time as a nose and 5-technique. The No. 1 overall high school recruit three years ago, he was the “best player” on the team as a freshman, according to head coach Dabo Swinney, but his last two seasons were marred by injury issues (ACL tear, kidney infection) and personal tragedy (passing of his younger sister after an 18-month cancer battle). Powerfully built and naturally gifted, Bresee is a balanced mover and carries his weight well to burst off the ball and make plays versus the run and the pass. With his heavy and active hands, he flashes the ability to stack, shed and finish, but his inconsistent leverage through contact will slow down his pursuit. Bresee must refine his set up and counters for better pass rush sequencing, but he is an explosive force player with disruptive potential in both even and odd fronts. His tag on draft boards will have a medical designation and his injury background might determine where he is drafted.

GRADE: 1st Round No. 23 overall

[YoHoChecko]

Interesting sleeper at a need position:

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20 PDs over the past 2 years is excellent for a safety

[BSA]

Here's Bill Huber at SI with his list of Packer-specific sleepers

Yoho mentioned one of them already - WR Andrei Iosivas

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/hun ... aster-eggs

Ever year, there are at least a few receivers like Iosivas – small-school guys with big-school skill-sets at 6-foot-3 and with 4.43 speed in the 40. A first-team FCS All-American, he caught 66 passes for 943 yards and seven touchdowns. Oh, and he was an All-American in the heptathlon.

[YoHoChecko]

Ever year, there are at least a few receivers like Iosivas – small-school guys with big-school skill-sets at 6-foot-3 and with 4.43 speed in the 40. A first-team FCS All-American, he caught 66 passes for 943 yards and seven touchdowns. Oh, and he was an All-American in the heptathlon.

This is an excellent point; and one I've been thinking about a lot in terms of my draft favorites.

I often like to gamble on traits (not early as much; early you want traits and surety).
But I've decided (and this was a massive part of my Christian Watson love) that when you gamble on traits, you need to pay attention to character--mostly football character (meaning their work ethic, coachability, etc).

It's really three things: traits + football character/work ethic + football IQ

The last is the hardest to find. I think MVS had traits and developed good football character. He tried hard but never really had that last thing.
Watson, very clearly to me, was a guy who will work his tail off, has a physical style and willingness to use it both as a blocker and route runner; and showed at the Senior Bowl how easily he learned and picked things up. I decided that he was likely, with coaching, to put his immense traits and skills to good use in the NFL. MLF says Doubs is that guy, too. He talks often about his tireless and impressive routine.

Mingo and Iosivas are the guys, in my view, based on some interviews and quotes and coaching commentary, that feel like the guys who are going to put their traits to good use. They're going to have high floors because they will not be lazy and rely on their athleticism. They're going to do what is asked of them and not complain about their roles while they develop. They're going to be part of a team effort rather than a collection of individuals with traits.

Rick Speilman, former Vikings GM, said on his podcast that the cognition and psychological testing that BSA has mentioned in some threads was, surprisingly to him, most correlated with success at the WR position. A position known for divas and personalities, but psychological maturity was actually a key indicator. It makes sense to me, outside of the very very best. It's a position where you have to work hard every snap to maybe get 5-7 targets in a game. It's a position where your contributions away from the ball matter but will almost never be recognized or rewarded. You have to WANT to do that to excel. Not always as a #1 elite receiving weapon. But as anyone else on the roster.

Anyway, this is very long-winded (what's new), but the point is that I don't think Iosivas will be one of the more common, "couple of these guys every year" types. I like him a LOT more than, say, Bryce Ford-Wheaton. Reasonably more than Matt Landers. His traits separate him from Shaq Davis and Justin Shorter.

That's my pitch. I'll go back to watching Yellowjackets now.

[Scott4Pack]

Interesting sleeper at a need position:

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20 PDs over the past 2 years is excellent for a safety

Wow. I live in Las Cruces and went to 2 NMSU games this year. Reed is hardly known around this area. But you could expect that here, as their football program is hardly supported by the community.

NMSU faced a lot of passing programs. He would’ve had many opportunities for PDs. But he really did pretty well.

BTW, one former Packer played collegiate ball at NMSU not so long ago.