2023 NFL Draft Discussion

[Labrev]

ESPN has a new mock draft sim out.

They based the picks off of general (fan/draftnik) consensus on where players will go. Obviously, there tends to be a disconnect between public consensus and the GMs' eval, but it doesn't do absurd stuff like having Bryce Young fall to #15 like many alternatives to PFF. Sadly, no way to trade players for picks like PFF, but again, better than the alternatives I've been using in the meantime.

Interestingly, Brian Branch fell to 45, which is doubtful, but the Sim acknowledged it too, saying he had only a 10% chance of being available there (biggest "steal" pick I made). Branch is not the marquee safety prospect of previous drafts, hence why we don't mock him at 15, but at 45 I run the card up to the podium.

[BSA]

Lots of draft methodologies out there, here's another one from ACME Packing on WRs to avoid due to being over-rated

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2023 ... eiver-list

[Scott4Pack]

I saw a video mock on BR saying they would see Paris Johnson T available to us at 15. In their view, Guty would strongly contemplate trading back if he can get capital in rounds 2 and 3. But Johnson fills a need at a spot where GB likes to pick OLinemen. I’m on board if that happens. I do want another good T, especially if he is diverse and can play various spots on the OLine.

[Scott4Pack]

So, if I consider how Guty has his tendencies, I think he is likely avoiding the following in round 1: TE, WR, RB, QB. Everything else could be on the table. Some say we just don’t need a T. I might agree personally, but I doubt if Guty feels that way. If a guy like Skoronski falls to 15, we take him.

At TE, I am wondering if they’ll target Schoonmaker. He’s supposed to be perhaps the best pure athlete in the TE group. And I do think that Guty only takes one TE.

At WR, I do think that GB is compelled to draft somebody, likely in round 2 or 3. If ever they were compelled because of lack of talent and/or depth, I think it’s this year in the WR group. Maybe Safety is similar. So, the S and WR groups absolutely need a guy drafted. Even if Guty scores a trade for somebody in either group, I just think he needs to put some strong focus there.

With depth at the TE, Edge, and OLine groups and perhaps nobody who will jump off the board at them that is elite, I do think maybe Guty trades back and tries to get more rd2 and rd3 picks. That is the “good enough” philosophy, compared to the “draft 1 or maybe 2 elite and make do with the rest” philosophy.

I still like the idea of GB getting two round 2 picks for 12. I’d prefer three of them. But hey, get the draft picks and let’s get going. Does anybody think there’s really a worthwhile guy the Jets would throw in that we’d like?

[Yoop]

yes TE and Edge my be strong positionally, but the more ready to play are first round prospects and I expect 4 edge rushers to go top 20 as well as 2 maybe 3 TE's going in the first, and just because Skoronski was a college T doesn't mean teams will draft him to play that position, he's simply the most ready to play OL man in this class

Guty could take a WR, Ted's first pick the year Rodgers started was Jordy Nelson, I wouldn't be surprised at all if our first pick was JSN or even Kincaid, like Ted he will do his best to surround his chosen QB with offensive skill position players, he'd be a idiot not to, why you and others over look these things makes no sense to me.

also this team is in no more of a rebuilding pattern as that 2008 team was, in fact it's probably in better shape then that unit was, unless Barry has another brain fart this defense should be very comparable to the 2010 SB unit, and the offense shouldn't be far behind.

I think posters are so worried about be wrong and ridiculed in this forum they don't dare walk a limb

Grace NO one wants to talk about what we might get for Rodgers any more, everyone is so fed up with all the propaganda, it'll happen when it happens and it very likely will be disappointing,

[Scott4Pack]

Guty could take a WR, Ted's first pick the year Rodgers started was Jordy Nelson, I wouldn't be surprised at all if our first pick was JSN or even Kincaid, like Ted he will do his best to surround his chosen QB with offensive skill position players, he'd be a idiot not to, why you and others over look these things makes no sense to me.

Yoop, I didn’t overlook that. I chose to not include every thought that I thought. I figure you and the other forum members don’t want to know every thought that I have. I am sparing you of about 100,000 words here brother.
Lol

[Yoop]

Guty could take a WR, Ted's first pick the year Rodgers started was Jordy Nelson, I wouldn't be surprised at all if our first pick was JSN or even Kincaid, like Ted he will do his best to surround his chosen QB with offensive skill position players, he'd be a idiot not to, why you and others over look these things makes no sense to me.

Yoop, I didn’t overlook that. I chose to not include every thought that I thought. I figure you and the other forum members don’t want to know every thought that I have. I am sparing you of about 100,000 words here brother.
Lol

didn't mean to sound so negative Scott, just tired of hearing the name Rodgers in every topic

I like both of Johnson and Skoronski, if either drops to us I'd probably take em, then I'd shop Bahktiari to a T needy team for whatever we can get
like Edge and TE this class has quality OL prospects through out the 2nd round, so we could slide back if the top prospect at each position are gone

[BF004]

Schefter betting 2 QBs don’t go before pick 4. He’s saying the Texans aren’t going to take a QB. That is interesting. Says that Bryce Young cancelled all his pre draft visits so he’s going first and the Texans want to build their defense.

Honestly I agree. I really think this is a bad QB class. The small QBs don’t last. Stroud is insanely accurate but no college QB has had better talent around him in a long time. Richardson could develop but as things stand he can’t throw. Levis is booty butt cheeks. I’d get who I think is the best player if I don’t believe in the QBs.

With that he claims no one wants to trade to 3 because they know QBs will fall. That didn’t make sense to me but who knows.

As a proud Davis Mills owner in our dynasty league, I support giving him another chance.

[YoHoChecko]

Honestly I agree. I really think this is a bad QB class. The small QBs don’t last. Stroud is insanely accurate but no college QB has had better talent around him in a long time. Richardson could develop but as things stand he can’t throw. Levis is booty butt cheeks. I’d get who I think is the best player if I don’t believe in the QBs.

Come on, you're better than this. You gotta be able to evaluate a quarterback independent of his targets. This is like knocking Joe Burrow for playing with Jefferson and Chase.

Stroud is an elite prospect. Accuracy, smooth motion, processing, release. I just don't understand how he's sort of gained this reputation as safe without a lot of upside. He's a fully prototypical QB prospect with everything you'd want. No clear knocks. Still plenty of development and room to improve in the pros. It's wild to me that he's not the clear #1 when his chief competition for the role is FIVE FOOT TEN

[Labrev]

ESPN mocko, 5 Rounds no trades...

1.15) Nolan Smith OLB (Big Board Rank: #12, odds of being available at 15 = 41%, odds of being available at next pick = <5%).
2.45) Keeanu Benton DT (#43, 91%, 28%)
3.78) Sam LaPorta TE (#55, 12%, <5%)
4.116) A.T. Perry WR (#74, 25%, 7%)
5.149) Ricky Stromberg C/G (#97, 51%, 37%)
5.170) Davis Allen TE (#129, 85%, --%)

Jets' draft for reference (they pick right ahead of us in most rounds, and we are trying to trade for these picks)
1.13) Lukas Van Ness DE
2.42) John Michael Schmitz C/G
2.43) Felix Anudike-Uzomah DE
... I actually like all of these players for us too.
4.112) Cory Trice CB, dunno who he is
5.143) Zach Evans RB, dunno

[packman114]

Am I really the only one hear that thinks Calijah Kancey is a good option for us? He is an Aaron Donald clone and we run the Rams defense so he seems like a perfect fit for us. He has been moving up in a lot of the mock drafts. He could be the guy that Gutey would be able to drop back for and pickup another 3rd rounder.

[BSA]

Am I really the only one hear that thinks Calijah Kancey is a good option for us? He is an Aaron Donald clone and we run the Rams defense so he seems like a perfect fit for us. e could be the guy that Gutey would be able to drop back for and pickup another 3rd rounder.

Dane Brugler notes on Kancey

SUMMARY: A three-year starter at Pittsburgh, Kancey was a 3-technique tackle in head coach Pat Narduzzi’s 4-3 base scheme, lining up everywhere from nose to the edge. After putting his name on the NFL radar in 2021, he led all FBS defensive tackles in tackles for loss (14.5) in 2022 and became the school’s first unanimous All-American since Aaron Donald. With his initial quickness and ability to maneuver his hips in the hole, Kancey wins at the snap to slant, stunt and cross the face of blockers and affect the backfield rhythm (46.8 percent of his tackles in 2022 came in enemy territory). He uses his balance and natural leverage to get underneath the pads of blockers, but can be displaced in the run game and will struggle to power through contact. Kancey’s undersized frame and average strength will be more pronounced versus NFL blockers, especially in the run game, but his get off, agility and quick hands allow him to leverage gaps and disrupt the backfield. Although not on Donald’s level as a pro prospect, the parallels are encouraging and he projects as a starting NFL 3-technique


The Packers drafted Devonte Wyatt to be the starting 3 -tech and Kenny Clark plays there too - so not sure why they'd draft this guy. He's also too short to play 5-Tech which is where GB has DL needs. So it seems like Kancey is a good prospect ( late 1st) , but a poor fit for the 2023 Packers 1st round selection.
.

[packman114]

The Packers drafted Devonte Wyatt to be the starting 3 -tech and Kenny Clark plays there too - so not sure why they'd draft this guy. He's also too short to play 5-Tech which is where GB has DL needs. So it seems like Kancey is a good prospect ( late 1st) , but a poor fit for the 2023 Packers 1st round selection.

Last I looked we lost both Lowry and Reed. So having, Wyatt, Clark, Slaton and Kancey makes a lot of sense to me. I'd much rather grab the 5-tech in later rounds and get more pressure from the inside along with help stopping the run.

[BSA]

Having them all makes a ton of sense. Deep DL is the way to win in the NFL
However, spending a 1st on the 3rd string 3-Tech is where that plan runs into scrutiny

[Labrev]

Am I really the only one hear that thinks Calijah Kancey is a good option for us? He is an Aaron Donald clone and we run the Rams defense so he seems like a perfect fit for us. He has been moving up in a lot of the mock drafts. He could be the guy that Gutey would be able to drop back for and pickup another 3rd rounder.

I don't think Kancey is Donald. That comp gets made for undersized quick DL in every draft because Donald is an elite athlete who's not very big, but what really makes Donald's game special is IQ/savvy, so guys like Quinnen Williams are arguably closer to that really.

That said, I don't think he's a bad option for us now that we run a more 1-gap defense, maybe a 43 Cover-2 would be a better fit but I think it could work with us. I think DL that can rush up the middle are actually a great assets. I just often have 5-6 guys I prefer at 15 in any combination of the picks ahead of us.

I took him at 15 in a sim mock quite some time ago just to get a feel for it, but I'd probably prefer to make him our first pick only after trading down from 15.

[BSA]

McGinn on the TEs

https://www.golongtd.com/p/part-1-wrte- ... -the-year?

My survey of 16 personnel men in the past few weeks asked them to rank the tight ends on a 1-to-5 basis, with a first-place vote worth five points, a second worth four and so on. Michael Mayer led with 10 firsts and 68 ½ points, followed by Dalton Kincaid (61, five firsts), Darnell Washington (40, one), Sam LaPorta (26 ½), Luke Musgrave (21), Tucker Kraft (11), Luke Schoonmaker (10) and Brenton Strange (two)

“There will be guys in the third, fourth, maybe even the fifth round that end up starting,” said an AFC exec. “I could see two going in the first. Then the third, to me, gets foggy. Darnell Washington tested like crazy but he didn’t play like that. He’s a maybe.”

“I think there will be a big run between the mid-second and the mid-third,” said an AFC personnel man. “I think nine or 10 will be starters. Some of them are more F (detached), some are more Y (attached). There are a lot of good backup guys, too.”

[YoHoChecko]

I am, unsurprisingly, a nah on Kancey

He’s just too much of a size outlier. It’s not just his weight, but his arms/length. He’s not just small. He’s REALLY small.

He might be great. But he’ll probably be a rotational passing down specialist playing 25-30% of his team’s snaps

[BSA]

McGinn on the WRs

The scouts’ poll at wide receiver reflected uncertainty. The first-place votes were split four ways, and 12 players received at least one mention.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba led with five firsts and 57 points, followed by Quentin Johnston (53, seven), Jordan Addison (48, three), Zay Flowers (43, one), Jalin Hyatt (17), Josh Downs (seven), Xavier Hutchinson (four), Cedric Tillman (four), Jonathan Mingo (three), Michael Wilson (two), Jason Brownlee (one) and Marvin Mims (one).

Not one scout spoke with conviction about any wide receiver assuming the role of a true No. 1 “out of the can,” as one AFC exec put it.
“None of them would have cracked the top group from last year,” another AFC personnel chief said. “The top four from last year were Drake London, Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave and Jameson Williams. Christian Watson, in this group, would have been at the top probably.
Watson is better than (Quentin) Johnston.”

On JSN

JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA, Ohio State (6-0 ½, 197, 4.52, 1-2): Adam Thielen has fashioned an outstanding nine-year career with the Minnesota Vikings after signing as an undrafted rookie from Minnesota State Mankato. “I thought he was Adam Thielen,” one scout said, referring to Smith-Njigba. “He can get deep because of his route-running ability, whether it’s a double move or a little shake. His 40 was fast enough for me. He may be the most consistent out of the bunch. He can do some outside stuff, but he’s mainly best in the slot.” Caught 10 passes in seven games as a true freshman, exploded for 95-1,606-9 in 2021 and was limited to 60 snaps in the first two games last season when a hamstring injury ended his collegiate career. “I do like him,” said a second scout. “He can be a good pro. More in the vein of a slot kind of guy. He catches the ball. He’s competitive. You just wonder if he has the top-end juice.”
His shuttle-run times at the combine (3.93 short, 6.57 3-cone) were the best at the position. “I’m really concerned about his speed,” said a third scout. “The (4.52) is not real good nowadays, and I don’t think he plays that fast. He plays like 4.6 to me. He’s a really good player. I just don’t see that explosiveness.” His score of 14 on the Wonderlic test was the highest of the top four wideouts. “He’s one of the most overrated players in the draft,” said a fourth scout. “He’s got good hands, not great hands. He’s got good vision and run after but he doesn’t run away from anybody and he’s not particularly elusive. He can find holes in zones, and he’s tough. He’ll take a hit to make catch. I don’t see special traits. Has to be a slot.
. Not fast enough to play outside. I’d rather have (Zay) Flowers because he’s really fast and really good after the catch. Sounds like he might be a solid second-round pick, and I didn’t see that.” From Rockwall, Texas.

[BSA]

cool story on Edge player, Will McDonald

“I was a big basketball dude. I was always into basketball. I didn't really care too much about football,” McDonald said at the Combine. “My coach back in high school, Matt Harris, he's coming after me every other day to ask me to come play football. I'm like, ‘No, I'm good. I'm good, I'm good.’ And so one day I went out, he asked me if I could catch. I'm like, ‘Yeah, I could catch.’ I go out there and catch some ball.

“Then he asked me, he said, ‘All right, can you get down and try to get around this tackle?’ It was our freshman tackle.
I'm like, ‘How am I supposed to do that.’” Harris showed him.

“So, I get down and I don't know what move I do, maybe a rip move to get it around the tackle. He was like, ‘Hold on, do that again’ because I end up winning the rep. And then the second time, he told me to just do whatever, so I tried to mix it up, but I end up doing the same move. I end up winning it again. He was like, ‘Hold up, do that one more time.’ And so I ended up beating him three times and then that's when we figured out, you know, I was a pass rusher. So, I just developed my game from there, tried to master it.”

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/nfl ... linebacker

[paco]

I am, unsurprisingly, a nah on Kancey

He’s just too much of a size outlier. It’s not just his weight, but his arms/length. He’s not just small. He’s REALLY small.

He might be great. But he’ll probably be a rotational passing down specialist playing 25-30% of his team’s snaps

I read just a little bit ago that Kancey didn't have a single Top 30 visit. Either everyone knows what they need to know, or no-one wants to show their hand on interest for him.