2023 NFL Draft Discussion

[Scott4Pack]

13 and 45 could get us to 6.

13 and 42 maybe 5 with a little more.


Just saying. Could be Anderson, Wilson, Carter range.

What value would 13 give us if we trade back? Unless Guty has one of those guys at HOF level talent, I think he’s more likely to trade back from 13 than he would’ve been from 15. Would that possibly get us around 19-20 AND a mid-second round pick?

[YoHoChecko]

13 and 45 could get us to 6.

13 and 42 maybe 5 with a little more.


Just saying. Could be Anderson, Wilson, Carter range.

You know I am team #NeverTradeUp but I would talk myself into it really quickly if we jumped up to stop Carter's mini-fall. No one else would even remotely pique my interest. Not Anderson; certainly not Tyree Wilson who doesn't even know how to pass rush yet.

Obviously, the team would have to be comfortable with the person, given the weirdness this year, but I think they have some contacts with the Georgia defense

[YoHoChecko]

What value would 13 give us if we trade back? Unless Guty has one of those guys at HOF level talent, I think he’s more likely to trade back from 13 than he would’ve been from 15. Would that possibly get us around 19-20 AND a mid-second round pick?

I remain of the belief that team's (especially ours) are still using the Jimmy Johnson style draft trade value chart as a guide to come up with trade baselines, despite the newer analytic methods. That may be slowly changing, but I used to have a regression of like 8-10 years of Packers trades that went up through the first couple Gutey years and it mapped to that chart very nicely.

So, with that said, we can look at landing spots where a trade back makes for some pretty clean value to move back...

• Packers could trade pick 13 to the Chargers for picks 21 and 54, which would amount to 1150 points to 1160 points on the chart

• Packers could trade 13 to the Giants for picks 25 and 57 which would have been exact value at 15, 1050 points to 1050 points. Now, it would likely also net a 3rd or 4th or maybe a pick swap in those rounds.

• Packers could trade 13 to the Steelers for picks 17 and 80 (3rd round) at 1150 to 1140 points

[Madcity_matt]

Sitting at 11 picks already, I'm not in favor of trading back for more picks, unless we then use those picks to move up from some of the other picks.

[YoHoChecko]

Sitting at 11 picks already, I'm not in favor of trading back for more picks, unless we then use those picks to move up from some of the other picks.

11 picks is a bit misleading though when 4 of them are in round 7. We have 5 of the final 60 picks. Especially in a draft this weak, those 7th rounders are just getting first dibs on UDFA graded players.

I would love to have more picks in the top 100/115.

I don't really need more picks past that, even though I typically like taking longshot fliers and I like plenty this year. There just isn't a ton of value in them. I hope we swap a 7th for a future 6th to reduce those numbers, which is a thing that we've done int he past.

[YoHoChecko]

My worst draft nightmare now that EVERYONE is saying this was to help get JSN is that someone trades up to 12 to draft JSN and whether Gutey was going to take him or not, the whole of Packers fandom melts down.

He's one of my faves, so this nightmare is not just about the reaction, but about the reality.


But that brings up a question. Lets say that Gutey picks someone who ISN'T JSN at 13. Let's even say JSN is available and he drafts someone else.

Which players would you be able to live with going ahead of him on our board (be mildly realistic about who's there at 13, but obviously anything can happen)

For me, I'm definitely with Nolan Smith on the list of guys I'd be ok with.

I think Darnell Wright is marginally there but I'd convince myself he was all the way on the list pretty quickly.

I would not be ok with LVN that early. Or Murphy.

Brian Branch and Bryan Bresee would have me feeling weird and conflicted. Like the players, don't like the value. Would pine for JSN

[Yoop]

I’m not sure that comparing Kincaid to Mayer is an apple to apple thing. A guy like Kincaid is much more likely to be split out. And obviously, Mayer buys you a better blocking guy and move the chains guy. Maybe Mayer is also a better target in the EZ too.

But hey, Kincaid down the seam looks like he would be burning a lot of LBs and Safeties. Would be a joy to watch.

Put him in a offense just like ours and and he would be a first down and TD machine, to quick and agile for most lbers and to big for safety's, let him learn all about blocking in the off season, put him in the slot and just throw him the ball, in this draft he could be the first receiver taken.

or I'am full of beans and don't know talent

[YoHoChecko]

Kincaid is not a TE

So kudos for Scott for saying Meyer and Kincaid are not Apples to Apples.


The hope with Kincaid is that he's a bigger Cooper Kupp (which would be amazing) or an Allen Lazard who's better at the catch point (a very useful player!)

He's not a Jimmy Graham/Kyle Pitts who were non-blockers with elite speed.

He's just a regular old slot receiver who just happens to be 240 pounds.

Big slots have a big role in the NFL. This isn't an insult.

But yeah, you cannot and should not put a list of players together at one position that has Meyer and Washington and also Kincaid. Those players are as different as an EDGE rusher and an iDL. Can they sometimes do some of the same things? yeah, for a few snaps or a package or two. But you just don't ask those players to do even remotely the same thing overall.

[Scott4Pack]

Kincaid is not a TE

So kudos for Scott for saying Meyer and Kincaid are not Apples to Apples.


The hope with Kincaid is that he's a bigger Cooper Kupp (which would be amazing) or an Allen Lazard who's better at the catch point (a very useful player!)

He's not a Jimmy Graham/Kyle Pitts who were non-blockers with elite speed.

He's just a regular old slot receiver who just happens to be 240 pounds.

Big slots have a big role in the NFL. This isn't an insult.

But yeah, you cannot and should not put a list of players together at one position that has Meyer and Washington and also Kincaid. Those players are as different as an EDGE rusher and an iDL. Can they sometimes do some of the same things? yeah, for a few snaps or a package or two. But you just don't ask those players to do even remotely the same thing overall.

Ya! And since Kincaid might be able to fit into the offense and legitimately offer some real production this year, that might give him more value by itself. Maybe Mayer also checks that box (in a different way). But Kincaid can have value as a Kelse-type player, even if he splits out in the slot more often than not.

The speed, hands, and route-running might actually give Kincaid more value than JSN! (Waiting for the reaction on that. Hahaha)

[Pckfn23]

PFN_MDS_Result__1682394351564.png (122.97 KiB) Viewed 711 times

[Yoop]

Kincaid is not a TE

So kudos for Scott for saying Meyer and Kincaid are not Apples to Apples.


The hope with Kincaid is that he's a bigger Cooper Kupp (which would be amazing) or an Allen Lazard who's better at the catch point (a very useful player!)

He's not a Jimmy Graham/Kyle Pitts who were non-blockers with elite speed.

He's just a regular old slot receiver who just happens to be 240 pounds.

Big slots have a big role in the NFL. This isn't an insult.

But yeah, you cannot and should not put a list of players together at one position that has Meyer and Washington and also Kincaid. Those players are as different as an EDGE rusher and an iDL. Can they sometimes do some of the same things? yeah, for a few snaps or a package or two. But you just don't ask those players to do even remotely the same thing overall.

KIncaid will become a TE, he has a higher blocking grade then Laporta from several draft people I read, you don't rank him as the type player you would take, which is fine, but to say he is just some slow slot receiver, or compare him to Lazard, who rarely ever separates isn't accurate, he knows how to out leverage defenders.

I expect him to go top 20

[BF004]

PFN_MDS_Result__1682394351564.png

How does one get pick 14?

And some of the mock sims need to get smarter.

Frustrating PFF still has Tyree Wilson like 25 overall, screws up every single mock.

And Mingo available that late? I think he’ll go like 25-50.

[YoHoChecko]

but to say he is just some slow slot receiver, or compare him to Lazard,

I put him on the spectrum of outcomes from a better version Lazard, who just signed a $10M/year contract, to Cooper Kupp, who is an elite NFL player. But I was talking primarily about usage and stylistically. The Rams and Packers play the same scheme--the Dolphins, Vikings, Bengals, 49ers, and Jets play variations of it. In offenses like that, Kincaid would play the same role as Cupp and Lazard, not the role of Kittle or Tonyan or definitely Marcedes Lewis. The import of this scheme to Miami turned Gesicki into a high-volume TE to a lower-volume jumbo slot.

Don't manufacture slights. I hate the guy, but I recognize that if he hits, he hits. I'm talking about his likeliest NFL role

But to be clear, there are WRs who block better than he does, and given where he will be lining up, he will be tasked with WR-style blocking assignments (in space) more than typical TE assignments (in line or pass pro)

I pointed out that he is different from Graham and Pitts, who were basically jumbo WRs but had elite speed--like 4.4s

And he is different than, say, Travis Kelce, who is primarily a receiver because Kelce is 1.25 inches taller, ten pounds heavier, has longer arms by about an inch, and is probably also faster (but since Kincaid can't do athletic testing due to the fractures in his spine, we can't be sure)

Kincaid is a jumbo slot with elite ball skills and very good separation ability. That's not an insult. That's the profile of a pretty darn good potential player. My arguments against him are that I wouldn't gamble on him reaching that ceiling. But if you want to take that gamble, the upside I see is as a slot receiver.

[Pckfn23]

PFN_MDS_Result__1682394351564.png

How does one get pick 14?

And some of the mock sims need to get smarter.

Frustrating PFF still has Tyree Wilson like 25 overall, screws up every single mock.

And Mingo available that late? I think he’ll go like 25-50.

JSN and Smith were gone and the Pats traded up for a CB, which obviously is not happening.

Outside the top 15, I have been finding there is a LOT of variance in the rankings depending on the site.

[YoHoChecko]

Outside the top 15, I have been finding there is a LOT of variance in the rankings depending on the site.

And likely around the league.

Gonna be a weird draft for sure

[Labrev]

I saw an NFL mock where Drew Sanders went Top 10 to the Falcons (I think they pick 9th?) and that made me wonder who this year's absolute left-field pick is going to be e.g. Clelin Ferrel at 4, Tyson Alualu in like the Top 10 or whatever it was, Cole Strange last year.

I can see Jack Campbell going way higher than people expect, but I think that would be way more defensible than the picks I mentioned. I seem to have heard Sam LaPorta getting first-round buzz. I could maybe see some teams fall in love with the pure traits of Musgrave and reach hard, but he's projected to go 2nd so 1st isn't an unbelievable reach.

But I can't wait for the absolute idiotic pick, like Commandos take Marte Mapu at 17 or something.

[BF004]

Makes me very happy too, so much less likely we'll take a TE at 13 I feel like than 15.

[Labrev]

Bucky Brooks has us taking Kincaid at 13 -.-

I do like Kincaid, but like....... stahp.

[BF004]

I saw an NFL mock where Drew Sanders went Top 10 to the Falcons (I think they pick 9th?) and that made me wonder who this year's absolute left-field pick is going to be e.g. Clelin Ferrel at 4, Tyson Alualu in like the Top 10 or whatever it was, Cole Strange last year.

Fun question.

I think way at the top, top 10-ish, Hendon Hooker, I could still see Quinten Johnston going really early. Darnell Wright, Keelee Ringo and Isiah Foskey I could all see going way ahead of schedule.

Couple more surprise later first round picks,
Keeanu Benton, Joe Tippmann (No homer), Jonathan Mingo, Cody Mauch, Rashee Rice, and Gervon Dexter.

[Yoop]

Makes me very happy too, so much less likely we'll take a TE at 13 I feel like than 15.

the difference between those two slots wont make a difference unless someone nabs Guty's targeted player sooner, certainly wont mean we'll pass on a TE because it's two slots early, if a player is worth taking at 15 he's just as worthy 2 slots sooner imo.


I know some here don't like KIncaid or any TE that early, as a rule neither do I, but thats because most TE's are drafted to be a accessory or a 6th OL, however if that players is more of a receiver and used in that capacity I think they can produce much quicker, we see how well some receivers do as rookies, so imho the same can work for receiving TE's.

but there will also be good edge players and OL man so we have some choices