Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison

[Cdragon]

He's got a great OL, He's got a WR who can take the top off the D. He's got a top tier RB that can catch and take the rock to the house. Love has a live arm and can run to get out of trouble or take free chunks from the D. I expect him to be top 10 QB. He is going to spread the ball around a lot more than AR had of late and that will be the thing, even with the unproven talent, that will frustrate defenses the most. He is also going to get some nice field position advantages with Nixon starting us off in great shape. I think he will play large and in charge and duh bares tears of joy that AR has moved on will just be the sweet tears we've come to expect.

[APB]

this article is a couple year old now, but it shows how we've just about tripled our pre snap motion since 2019 Lafleurs first season, if Rodgers didn't like the motion it didn't stop us from using it, and even if he didn't like it the success using it can't be denied

Note: I'm going to point some things out simply to give some context to the dated information in your post. I am not looking for yet another refresher on old arguments.

As you said, that's an old article. It is from MLF's 2nd year (2020) as HC and after much off-season hoopla over Rodgers initial resistance over buying into the new offensive system . Once he finally did, the offense had great success.

Fast forward to 2022, though.

It has been well documented through reporting, and through Rodgers himself, how he didn't care for all the play-action. The stats from 2022 show exactly that (click the "Play Type" tab). There were 563 pass attempts, yet only 139 included play-action. That's a percentage of just under 25%, well below league and previous Rodgers MVP season averages. If you include the RPO numbers (58), it bumps "play-action" usage up to 35% but that's kinda misleading IMO. RPO is not necessarily play-action, it's reading a defense and reacting to their movements/alignments. In any case (25% or 35%), the Packers use of play-action was right back to where it was pre-MLF and, coincidentally, right where Rodgers liked it.

One could make the argument that Rodgers own resistance to MLF's now proven system led to the less-than-stellar 2022 output by the offense. I wouldn't want to make that argument, though, for fear of side-tracking yet another conversation and regurgitating the same pro/anti Rodgers stances we've all heard over and over and over...

#context

[TheSkeptic]

I do not expect Love to be as good as either Rodgers or Favre or even Majik. Those 3 had more talent than Love has. But I expect Love to be a good game manager, to take what the D gives him, to hand the ball to Jones or Dillon and let them and the Oline take the steam out of the opposing D. To make the 10 yard throw to Watson or Reed and watch them tag on YAC. To make the 7 yard pass on 3rd and 5 to the new TE's or a screen pass to the RB. To be careful with the ball but to also understand that punting is a failure by the QB and almost as bad as an interception.

This is a good O. Last season the Oline was not healthy. Watson missed half the season before he got healthy and then Doubs got hurt. Jones and Dillon did not have great years because the blocking was not consistent. Right now, the O looks the best it has been in a long time. Love does not need to win games, he just needs not to lose them. And that is precisely what he will do, just win.

As for comparison, well my all time favorite Packer. Bart Starr. Never had the greatest arm like Unitas, but good enough to make tough passes. Never a scrambler like Tarkington, but not a target for Dlinemen either. Just a leader. Just a winner. Just a teammate.

Bart was better then Johnny U. John played for a pass first team, Baltimore won passing the ball, GB won running it, just saying that that changes the scope of how these two QB's are compared, imo it sheds some confusion on just how accurate Starr was, and he was very accurate, Starr had some great receivers in Dale, McGee and Dowler, but Johnny U did as well with Raymond Berry, arguably on the level of Hudson, and those two dominated, also had Lenny Moore.

whatever I think your short changing your Fav Packer Skeptic

here are stats for each

https://www.footballdb.com/players/john ... -unitajo01


https://www.footballdb.com/players/john ... -unitajo01

I think you underestimate just how good the rest of the Packers O was.
They had Gregg and Gillingham who might be the 2 best all time Olinemen in the NFL. Kramer, Thurston and Ringo were all very very good.
Jim Taylor was the 2nd best NFL RB of all time. Hornung was a great all round HB, a good runner, a good receiver and could even throw the ball.
Ron Kramer was the best TE GB has ever had.
McGee and Dowler were competent but Dale was great.
Of course Bart was going to have good stats, his backup Zeke had good stats too.

The reason why Bart is my all time favorite Packer was not his QB performance. It was because of his leadership as a player, because he always put the team first. He didn't need to take that thankless head coaching job, he knew it was hopeless. He never expected to coach and he knew he was in over his head and could not succeed. But the Packers had no one else who could be HC/GM and so he did his best.

I see signs that Love has the same mentality regarding his place on the team. I hope so.

[Yoop]

I do not expect Love to be as good as either Rodgers or Favre or even Majik. Those 3 had more talent than Love has. But I expect Love to be a good game manager, to take what the D gives him, to hand the ball to Jones or Dillon and let them and the Oline take the steam out of the opposing D. To make the 10 yard throw to Watson or Reed and watch them tag on YAC. To make the 7 yard pass on 3rd and 5 to the new TE's or a screen pass to the RB. To be careful with the ball but to also understand that punting is a failure by the QB and almost as bad as an interception.

This is a good O. Last season the Oline was not healthy. Watson missed half the season before he got healthy and then Doubs got hurt. Jones and Dillon did not have great years because the blocking was not consistent. Right now, the O looks the best it has been in a long time. Love does not need to win games, he just needs not to lose them. And that is precisely what he will do, just win.

As for comparison, well my all time favorite Packer. Bart Starr. Never had the greatest arm like Unitas, but good enough to make tough passes. Never a scrambler like Tarkington, but not a target for Dlinemen either. Just a leader. Just a winner. Just a teammate.

Bart was better then Johnny U. John played for a pass first team, Baltimore won passing the ball, GB won running it, just saying that that changes the scope of how these two QB's are compared, imo it sheds some confusion on just how accurate Starr was, and he was very accurate, Starr had some great receivers in Dale, McGee and Dowler, but Johnny U did as well with Raymond Berry, arguably on the level of Hudson, and those two dominated, also had Lenny Moore.

whatever I think your short changing your Fav Packer Skeptic

here are stats for each

https://www.footballdb.com/players/john ... -unitajo01


https://www.footballdb.com/players/john ... -unitajo01

I think you underestimate just how good the rest of the Packers O was.
They had Gregg and Gillingham who might be the 2 best all time Olinemen in the NFL. Kramer, Thurston and Ringo were all very very good.
Jim Taylor was the 2nd best NFL RB of all time. Hornung was a great all round HB, a good runner, a good receiver and could even throw the ball.
Ron Kramer was the best TE GB has ever had.
McGee and Dowler were competent but Dale was great.
Of course Bart was going to have good stats, his backup Zeke had good stats too.

The reason why Bart is my all time favorite Packer was not his QB performance. It was because of his leadership as a player, because he always put the team first. He didn't need to take that thankless head coaching job, he knew it was hopeless. He never expected to coach and he knew he was in over his head and could not succeed. But the Packers had no one else who could be HC/GM and so he did his best.

I see signs that Love has the same mentality regarding his place on the team. I hope so.

as good as the Packers where in the 60's the Baltimore Colts where in the late 50's, and they also sent some stars to the HOF, again the seasonal stats show that Bart was every bit as accurate as Unitas, albeit throwing less passes

I think at this stage it is near impossible to know just who or what Jordan Love is, agree he seems humble, coachable and likable, just as Bart was his whole career, But Jordan is brand new, see how he is if, and after a little success, heck the hated Aaron Rodgers had these traits when he first started pretty much too.

[packman114]

I'm anxious to see if it really was MLF who "got away from the run" or if it was Rodgers who changed the plays. If we can keep a good run/pass balance then I see Love having a really good QB rating and season. He doesn't have to be great, just be efficient and we will be a better team than last year. Once you're in the playoffs, anything can happen.

[Labrev]

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-qb-index-r ... -end-of-th

Yeah, my rationally optimistic expectation is for Love to place himself in that range behind Dak and Lamar Jackson, so like #14-17, that middle-of-the-road among starting QBs (with the upside to climb higher). I think this year Fields will show that he's better than he has looked up to this point. I am also hoping he can establish himself as better than the next highest guys on the list: Danny Dimes, Tannehill, even Carr.

[TheSkeptic]

https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-qb-index-r ... -end-of-th

Yeah, my rationally optimistic expectation is for Love to place himself in that range behind Dak and Lamar Jackson, so like #14-17, that middle-of-the-road among starting QBs (with the upside to climb higher). I think this year Fields will show that he's better than he has looked up to this point. I am also hoping he can establish himself as better than the next highest guys on the list: Danny Dimes, Tannehill, even Carr.

This evaluation has Justin Fields ranked as #13. So much for their credibility.

[RingoCStarrQB]

I do not expect Jordan Love to wait until the clock hits 1 second before taking the snap.........over and over again. That was getting ridiculous with the previous QB orchestrating an offensive game plan that rarely resulted in open receivers (unless #17 was on the field).

[TheSkeptic]

I do not expect Jordan Love to wait until the clock hits 1 second before taking the snap.........over and over again. That was getting ridiculous with the previous QB orchestrating an offensive game plan that rarely resulted in open receivers (unless #17 was on the field).

This is totally true, and it made it much easier for the opposing pass rushers to get the first jump without being offside. All the D had to do was for someone to watch the play clock and tell the pass rushers when to go. Furthermore, this also told the entire D that it was going to be a pass play rather than a run.

[Madcity_matt]

I expect a good year from Love. I think we will see the purest version of what MLF wants to do with this offense. I think the majority of plays will stay on schedule(for better and for worse), more running, and hopefully complementary football on the DEF and ST side. We don't need Love to be amazing to be a good football team.

[Pugger]

I hope Love plays well but I'm not expecting much this year. Back in 2008 with a stronger roster during Rodgers' first year starting we went 6-10. I'm sure there will be bumps along the way this year. As long as we improvement week after week I'll be happy and excited about the future. Ask us again in August of 2024...

[Scott4Pack]

I believe that based on what we have seen from Love, he has at least enough talent to lead a team with a very strong supporting cast deep into the playoffs. Plug someone with his talent into a roster like what the 49ers have and they probably won't miss a beat. The problem is that I believe that different franchises have their own unique cultures/identities/blueprints for success. With the Packers, success has always started with outstanding quarterback play. It is engrained in the culture. Not saying it's impossible to cultivate a "Ravens-Trent Dilfer type situation," but it would be a zag from who we have been, historically. So if the consensus ultimately becomes that Love is Daniel Jones 2.0, odds are I will not be happy.

What you say is true. Yet, the offensive system managed by MLF specifically is geared to teams that require modest performance from the QB. Love could legitimately be an “average” QB and still succeed in MLF’s system. That is, I think, perhaps a good measuring stick/expectation for Love’s first year of starting.

well the QB is still required to read a defense and make plays, but getting back to pre snap motion it sure has helped us to be very good running the football, in that sense yes it does take some of the pressure off the QB by freezing a pass rush

this article is a couple year old now, but it shows how we've just about tripled our pre snap motion since 2019 Lafleurs first season, if Rodgers didn't like the motion it didn't stop us from using it, and even if he didn't like it the success using it can't be denied

Look no further than the usage of pre-snap motions and shifts. Green Bay is currently using motions and shifts on 60.9 percent of its offensive plays (fourth-most in the NFL).

Even more impressive is where this offense came from just two years ago. In McCarthy’s final season in Green Bay in 2018, the Packers finished 30th in using motion at a 30.2 percent rate. The offense made the slow climb back to the middle of the pack in LaFleur’s first season by using motion 47.3 percent, which ranked 14th in the NFL.

looking at these run stats, I'd say motion is here to stay


Yards per carry

6.3 (1st) motion
3.3 (29th) no motion
Explosive runs (10-plus yards)
13 (3rd) motion
5 (28th) no motion
Yards before contact
2.6 (1st) motion
0.6 (27th) no motion

theres lots more very good info if your interested.


https://theathletic.com/2137399/2020/10 ... ense-with-

I would love to read that, but I do not subscribe to The Athletic. Any chance that Fennell puts that onto his YouTube?

[Yoop]

not to regurgitate this , but this is to good not to share, I keep forgetting the pay wall, here you go Scott.

The Athletic Wisconsin examines the Packers’ offense through the “All-22” camera angle. That camera is positioned high above the NFL playing field and shows a view that includes all 22 players at the same time. This view can be used to analyze all plays in an NFL game.

What’s all the commotion
The 2019 season was a transitional year for the Packers offense, leaving the long-tenured Mike McCarthy era and into the uncharted world of young play-caller Matt LaFleur. This season it’s been all systems go for LaFleur and his offense. “All gas, no brakes” as the coach likes to proclaim.

And perhaps the biggest change isn’t the perceived resurgence of Aaron Rodgers, but rather what LaFleur is adding to his offensive scheme to make it more efficient and productive.

Look no further than the usage of pre-snap motions and shifts. Green Bay is currently using motions and shifts on 60.9 percent of its offensive plays (fourth-most in the NFL).

Even more impressive is where this offense came from just two years ago. In McCarthy’s final season in Green Bay in 2018, the Packers finished 30th in using motion at a 30.2 percent rate. The offense made the slow climb back to the middle of the pack in LaFleur’s first season by using motion 47.3 percent, which ranked 14th in the NFL.

Now that we know the Packers are using it at a much higher frequency, let’s take a look under the hood and dissect it. Are motion and shifts more effective or is it a useless element with minimal impact?

Make opponents think
Pre-snap movement at its simplest form forces defenders to think. It makes them communicate and process moving parts of the offense. And these thoughts and communication must happen fast, especially when the motion is tied to the snap of the ball.

If the defensive checks aren’t polished, the moving parts of the offense put them a step ahead in the execution of their play.

Not all offensive play callers, designers or quarterbacks want pre-snap motion. One of the cons of running it is that it creates a cloudy picture of the defense. Peyton Manning preferred less pre-snap motion because he wanted a stale, static picture of the defense.

If the offense is moving and the defense is moving, it was difficult for Manning to pick up clear information about coverage or pressure. There is a reason the Jets are dead last in using motions or shifts. Their head coach Adam Gase was with Manning for many years. That philosophy seems to have bled into what the Jets are trying to do offensively with young QB Sam Darnold.

Acquire information
While Manning wasn’t a fan, offenses can use certain motions to acquire information about the defense’s intent.

The most common: Is a defense playing man or zone coverage? Traditionally, if a defender follows the pre-snap motion, it’s likely man-to-man coverage. If no defenders follow, it’s probably zone coverage. This is something subtle and simple that can be identified while watching a game on TV. If you see motion, try to determine what the defense is playing.

But be careful. The defense knows this is the intent so it attempts to give false information too:


Biggest impact
Motion has proven to be an advantageous tool across the Packers’ entire offensive platform. Green Bay leads the NFL with .255 EPA (Expected Points Added) when using motion. EPA is an analytical metric to measure a play’s impact on the score of the game.

But the use of motion by the Packers has had a ripple effect on the run game.

Let’s move
Yards per carry
6.3 (1st)
3.3 (29th)
Explosive runs (10-plus yards)
13 (3rd)
5 (28th)
Yards before contact
2.6 (1st)
0.6 (27th)
Show it, respect It
There clearly is something aiding and assisting the run game through these motions. Let’s see exactly how it can help produce a more effective rushing attack.

Decoys are only as good as their believability. Offenses can’t manipulate defenses with decoys if it isn’t a true threat.

In Week 1 against the Vikings, LaFleur used his jet motion often throughout the game, but he made an aggressive commitment by using it to run the ball.

Hybrid RB/WR Tyler Ervin has been tasked with jet motions this season, and he got his number called twice in Week 1. He has good speed to make this concept effective by getting to the perimeter.

Showing heavy usage in Week 1 was a great strategy to keep Minnesota’s defense honest. The jet sweep “give” can be run as a sweep play when Rodgers is under center or as a quick pass if he’s in the shotgun:


Influence and stretch defenders
The jet-motion element can create bigger running lanes for backs. It forces a defense to stretch laterally or horizontally. This widens defenders, and by default, widens gaps in the run game.

In Week 4, several unblocked Falcons defenders removed themselves from the run action because of the jet-motion threat of Ervin. And with a running back like Aaron Jones, who excels in cutback lanes, the defense is perfectly split down the middle:

Eye-candy confusion
Causing defenders to process and assess a moving picture before the snap inevitably creates hesitation in their movements and reactions. This split second is all a blocker may need to leverage their blocking assignment.

Adding jet motions opposite of the intended action can create eye violations and conflicts for defenders. A subtle fake to the jet motion going one way can confuse defenders when the run occurs in the opposite direction.

LaFleur loves using the “Jet Flip” misdirection run play. This features a fake to the jet motion (opposite of the run action) and then a flip to the running back as the offensive tackle pulls to the perimeter.

In Week 2 against the Lions, the Packers executed a jet flip to near perfection. Because the Lions were in man-to-man coverage, the jet motion from Ervin removed his defender from the side that the run took place. Watch LB Jahlani Tavai on the second level. He clearly hesitates to look at the misdirection and that gives RG Lucas Patrick great positioning for the cut-block.

Once again, Ervin’s jet motion opened up a gaping hole for a Jamaal Williams rushing TD in the red zone. You can see the delay in both play-side defenders, allowing LT David Bakhtiari and TE Robert Tonyan to cleanly get to their blocking targets.


QB buying in
The quarterback also can use the motion element of play design to make his own influential fakes to influence defenders. Against the Lions and Falcons, watch Rodgers use a subtle throwing motion after the handoff to hold defenders. Whether a jet motion or orbit motion, the threat is present to the defense. The Packers will occasionally throw a screen pass to that jet-motion player, but for now, the fake is proving to be enough:

Boot camp
Having a scheme and adding wrinkles is what Fleur, Sean McVay, and Kyle Shanahan are all about.

Getting Rodgers on the edge of the defense by using a bootleg is an excellent complementary concept to the jet action. It gets a defense flowing one direction laterally, the downhill-run action gets the defense to suck up and the bootleg works against the grain.

LaFleur likes using Rodgers against the flow of the jet motion, often using flood or three-level stretch concepts downfield:


This season, Rodgers is 29 of 41 (70.7 percent) on play-action schemes with four touchdowns and zero interceptions.

[JordanAlexanderLove]

All J-Love has to do is play marginally better than the horrible showing Aaron gave last year and this is a 10+ win team.

The end.

[Drj820]

All J-Love has to do is play marginally better than the horrible showing Aaron gave last year and this is a 10+ win team.

The end.

If love plays any amount better than Rodgers next year it will be one of the best seasons from a first year starter at qb ever

[RingoCStarrQB]

All J-Love has to do is play marginally better than the horrible showing Aaron gave last year and this is a 10+ win team.

The end.

If love plays any amount better than Rodgers next year it will be one of the best seasons from a first year starter at qb ever

If he plays better than Avellini and Wright did in the 1980s, he should give the defense a chance to stop any opponent's QB except for Mahomes

[wallyuwl]

All J-Love has to do is play marginally better than the horrible showing Aaron gave last year and this is a 10+ win team.

The end.

If love plays any amount better than Rodgers next year it will be one of the best seasons from a first year starter at qb ever

If he plays better than Avellini and Wright did in the 1980s, he should give the defense a chance to stop any opponent's QB except for Mahomes

Defense stopping any (except KC) opponent?

[JordanAlexanderLove]

If love plays any amount better than Rodgers next year it will be one of the best seasons from a first year starter at qb ever

Not true, but ok. Please post some meaningless stats from first season starting QBs that you think supports your claim that first year starting QBs are never as good as the crap show Aaron put on last season. Aaron and the Pack didn't make the playoffs. Off the top of my head, I could name 5 first season as the starter QBs that did. Aaron didn't even show up in a must win against the Lions. And no, your precious Aaron's thumb was not broken the final week of the season. Please save the thumb excuse for why he sucked last year.

Love Aaron and respect his career, but so sick of you Aaron fanboys defending him. He is a huge reason why the Packers never got a Lombardi in the past 4 years. Great coaching staff and better than good rosters for 4 years. The Defense sucked you say? Another false excuse. Did the defense lose that NFC Champ game at home to Tampa? Nope, Aaron did. Did the defense lose to San Fran at home in the divisional round in 2021? Nope, Aaron did. No passing TDs and one rushing TD by AJ Dillon. Thank god the J-Love era is here!

[Drj820]

If love plays any amount better than Rodgers next year it will be one of the best seasons from a first year starter at qb ever

Not true, but ok. Please post some meaningless stats from first season starting QBs that you think supports your claim that first year starting QBs are never as good as the crap show Aaron put on last season. Aaron and the Pack didn't make the playoffs. Off the top of my head, I could name 5 first season as the starter QBs that did. Aaron didn't even show up in a must win against the Lions. And no, your precious Aaron's thumb was not broken the final week of the season. Please save the thumb excuse for why he sucked last year.

Love Aaron and respect his career, but so sick of you Aaron fanboys defending him. He is a huge reason why the Packers never got a Lombardi in the past 4 years. Great coaching staff and better than good rosters for 4 years. The Defense sucked you say? Another false excuse. Did the defense lose that NFC Champ game at home to Tampa? Nope, Aaron did. Did the defense lose to San Fran at home in the divisional round in 2021? Nope, Aaron did. No passing TDs and one rushing TD by AJ Dillon. Thank god the J-Love era is here!

Yal remember the poster that used to make bold claims, demean other posters and say “hahahahaha” all the time?

I think he’s back with a new account name.

That said, welcome back!!

[Drj820]

If love plays any amount better than Rodgers next year it will be one of the best seasons from a first year starter at qb ever

Not true, but ok. Please post some meaningless stats from first season starting QBs that you think supports your claim that first year starting QBs are never as good as the crap show Aaron put on last season. Aaron and the Pack didn't make the playoffs. Off the top of my head, I could name 5 first season as the starter QBs that did. Aaron didn't even show up in a must win against the Lions. And no, your precious Aaron's thumb was not broken the final week of the season. Please save the thumb excuse for why he sucked last year.

Love Aaron and respect his career, but so sick of you Aaron fanboys defending him. He is a huge reason why the Packers never got a Lombardi in the past 4 years. Great coaching staff and better than good rosters for 4 years. The Defense sucked you say? Another false excuse. Did the defense lose that NFC Champ game at home to Tampa? Nope, Aaron did. Did the defense lose to San Fran at home in the divisional round in 2021? Nope, Aaron did. No passing TDs and one rushing TD by AJ Dillon. Thank god the J-Love era is here!

Please show me where I fan boyed for rodgers or mentioned a thumb?

I think we set any QB up to fail last year with the receiver situation. What we trotted out on the field weeks 1-6 at WR was basically sabotage. Combine that with rodgers making no effort to connect with those guys in the off-season, his very average play, and the defense underachieving, it was a recipe for disaster.

That said, he did have an “average” season compared to most NFL starters.

And if Love performs better than the average NFL QB, (meaning plays as about the 10-15th best) then yes, that will be historically good for a first year starter.

Most first year QBs play below average, and the good ones show signs of future goodness and make a big leap year 2.