Carlson

[APB]

The thing about Crosby's "low" FG percentages throughout his career is that we generally gave him tougher kicks, like I remember that one really bad season he had, most of his misses were from 50+ and barely missed. Plus the random 5 missed FG games he would have brought down the numbers in general.

That year, 2012, Crosby hit 71% on FGA 30-39 yards. He hit 75% on attempts 40-49 yards. And yes, over 50 yards he was also atrociously bad (2 of 9). His combined attempts under 50 yards, he hit on 14 of 19, or 73%. Blaming his bad year on “tougher kicks” is excuse making. He was bad all-around.

He's still as solid as ever, just with a weaker leg.

Sure, he was solid last year. Not elite by any means, but solid. Not so much the year before. It’s been the story of his career: up one year, down the next. Now he’s another year older and his kickoffs, which rarely make it even to the 5 yd line anymore, ain’t getting any deeper.

“Solid” isn’t difficult to find. If the Packers can’t find a younger, stronger, and cheaper “solid” kicker, then the problem lies with the scouts and/or coaching staff. Bringing back Crosby won’t fix that and chances are his performance, if history and age are any indication, will render it a fruitless endeavor anyway.

[RingoCStarrQB]

It's a shame Carlson has garnered so much attention. He better snap out of it or he'll be shipped out of Titletown to bag groceries in or near Mississippi.

[Crazylegs Starks]

It's a shame Carlson has garnered so much attention. He better snap out of it or he'll be shipped out of Titletown to bag groceries in or near Mississippi.

He's from Colorado, so going to Mississippi would be quite a punishment!

[Crazylegs Starks]

https://www.packersnews.com/story/sport ... 588535007/

...Missing right is still a problem, but Carlson said it at least brings him closer to finding the solution.

“I think it’s helpful,” Carlson said. “You don’t want to go right, left, right. Because then you’re just kind of lost. I like my mindset. I’ve just got to fix some technical things.”

Carlson believes he’s identified the reason so many kicks are failing to split the uprights in his first pro training camp. As he approaches the football from the left, Carlson is rushing. Call it the same rookie jitters common throughout NFL camps, but most visible for kickers. Carlson arriving at the football too quickly, carrying his momentum through the left-to-right line instead of squaring toward the goal posts.

[TheSkeptic]

Carlson is not great at this point. Maybe not even good. But Crosby is done. Finished. Kaput. Likely to be worse than Carlson

[Yoop]

Carlson is not great at this point. Maybe not even good. But Crosby is done. Finished. Kaput. Likely to be worse than Carlson

seriously never quite understood how a fan can say stuff like that Skeptic, when almost all of those predictions turn out to be half truths at best, Crosby may have declining leg strength, but that doesn't mean he's lost accuracy or consistency.

same with people that have predicted doom and gloom with Carlson, same with people predicting this and that with this OL group, or if Love will bust or not,

we had this center named Fontenot, took him 5 years to start, we had this 17th round QB back in the 50's, and no one gave him a shot either, few years later and he's a house hold name in NFL circles.

sure we can make a educated guess, after all we are very involved and well read fans, but even that doesn't mean we have insider ability to know much more then anyone can learn reading a sports page.

people been saying this or that player is done my whole lifetime, and the following year or so they go to the PB or get all pro recognition.

Last year everyone said Rodgers was in decline, barely average at best, I expect he'll be top 5 or so in the league again maybe even a higher ranking, my point is we actually don't know, we think we know, but as Teddy T. said, we don't have a inkling course that comment was directed at the media, Teddy might have thought U and I are smarter, but I could be grasping to even think that

[APB]

Carlson is not great at this point. Maybe not even good. But Crosby is done. Finished. Kaput. Likely to be worse than Carlson

seriously never quite understood how a fan can say stuff like that Skeptic, when almost all of those predictions turn out to be half truths at best, Crosby may have declining leg strength, but that doesn't mean he's lost accuracy or consistency.

same with people that have predicted doom and gloom with Carlson, same with people predicting this and that with this OL group, or if Love will bust or not,

we had this center named Fontenot, took him 5 years to start, we had this 17th round QB back in the 50's, and no one gave him a shot either, few years later and he's a house hold name in NFL circles.

sure we can make a educated guess, after all we are very involved and well read fans, but even that doesn't mean we have insider ability to know much more then anyone can learn reading a sports page.

people been saying this or that player is done my whole lifetime, and the following year or so they go to the PB or get all pro recognition.

Last year everyone said Rodgers was in decline, barely average at best, I expect he'll be top 5 or so in the league again maybe even a higher ranking, my point is we actually don't know, we think we know, but as Teddy T. said, we don't have a inkling course that comment was directed at the media, Teddy might have thought U and I are smarter, but I could be grasping to even think that

This post made me smile given the arguments you've been making today...

[Crazylegs Starks]

we had this center named Fontenot, took him 5 years to start

You mean Mike Flanagan???

[RingoCStarrQB]

Herman Fontenot was a Packers running back -- 1989 and 1990. Carlson is attempting to be our kicker. What else do you need to know?

[Yoop]

we had this center named Fontenot, took him 5 years to start

You mean Mike Flanagan???

thank you at least both player names started with a F

[Yoop]

Herman Fontenot was a Packers running back -- 1989 and 1990. Carlson is attempting to be our kicker. What else do you need to know?

I think that pretty much covers it for now, ehhh, yep

[texas]

@APB It's already happening.

We didn't have to wait for Crosby. He came out in preseason and kicked the longest FG in the history of Heinz Field, and then in his first NFL game he kicked a game winner under pressure, in addition to a 53 yarder in that game. He was good from the start.

Carlson is not good from the start.

not talking about 2007 and his start. I'm talking about the times we had to be patient with Crosby (like 2012, 2021, etc.)

Oh ok, well in that case it still can be said that being patient with Crosby (who at that point had several years of being clutch under his belt) is a different case entirely than being patient with a guy who has shown nothing yet.

And I guess now I am on board with at least letting Carlson finish out the preseason to see if he can get back on track. Or like I said if we suck this year, might as well ride him out and see.

But none of the anti-Crosby arguments are good. The guy is and was a solid kicker that you can rely on, and that's exactly what you want if you are trying to win games.

[texas]

The thing about Crosby's "low" FG percentages throughout his career is that we generally gave him tougher kicks, like I remember that one really bad season he had, most of his misses were from 50+ and barely missed. Plus the random 5 missed FG games he would have brought down the numbers in general.

That year, 2012, Crosby hit 71% on FGA 30-39 yards. He hit 75% on attempts 40-49 yards. And yes, over 50 yards he was also atrociously bad (2 of 9). His combined attempts under 50 yards, he hit on 14 of 19, or 73%. Blaming his bad year on “tougher kicks” is excuse making. He was bad all-around.

He's still as solid as ever, just with a weaker leg.

Sure, he was solid last year. Not elite by any means, but solid. Not so much the year before. It’s been the story of his career: up one year, down the next. Now he’s another year older and his kickoffs, which rarely make it even to the 5 yd line anymore, ain’t getting any deeper.

“Solid” isn’t difficult to find. If the Packers can’t find a younger, stronger, and cheaper “solid” kicker, then the problem lies with the scouts and/or coaching staff. Bringing back Crosby won’t fix that and chances are his performance, if history and age are any indication, will render it a fruitless endeavor anyway.

It has been my recollection over time that the kicks Crosby has missed over the years were generally:

1) Really tough;
2) Coming during one of his mini-slumps (which were often brought on by him missing a really tough kick); or
3) A random odd missed kick here or there.

In my mind, 1 and 2 are acceptable (2 only if the slumps never last long which in his case they don't). 3 is really the only bad category and he rarely did #3. There really haven't been many times I didn't feel confident in him making a clutch kick for us, and rarely do I remember being disappointed after a Crosby FG attempt.

And even in a "down year" as you say, 2021, the biggest Crosby moment that comes to mind was when he made that clutch kick against SF in week 3. He pretty much always delivers when it counts, when the game is on the line.

Do they have more contextual stats about his FGs over the years, or just the raw numbers? I would be curious to see the distribution of his misses, or whether some of his shorter misses came immediately after longer misses, which would tend to suggest reason #2 which we all know he has had a history with but also always snaps out of it.

[RingoCStarrQB]

Herman Fontenot was a Packers running back -- 1989 and 1990. Carlson is attempting to be our kicker. What else do you need to know?

I think that pretty much covers it for now, ehhh, yep

Happy to help. Anna Hey, Yooper.

[lupedafiasco]

I’m down keeping Carlson for the year and see what happens. I don’t think this year matters. They have so many young players and nearly $60M in dead cap I can’t imagine them pushing for a SB. Just develop your players. Get them reps and come back strong next season. With the way things are currently looking I doubt Douglas comes back with us being already deep at outside CB with younger and more athletic players. I have a hard time seeing Bak back at $40M with options at OT. Aaron Jones should have gone because it’s stupid to pay RBs but he’s on track to make $17M.

You can into next offseason with some good money under our belts to retain some young talent and use the extra 1st round pick to really fill in the gaps provided this class hits and next years is at the very least decent. 2025 is your window for a SB. It’s far off but that’s the position our GM put us in.

[TheSkeptic]

I’m down keeping Carlson for the year and see what happens. I don’t think this year matters. They have so many young players and nearly $60M in dead cap I can’t imagine them pushing for a SB. Just develop your players. Get them reps and come back strong next season. With the way things are currently looking I doubt Douglas comes back with us being already deep at outside CB with younger and more athletic players. I have a hard time seeing Bak back at $40M with options at OT. Aaron Jones should have gone because it’s stupid to pay RBs but he’s on track to make $17M.

You can into next offseason with some good money under our belts to retain some young talent and use the extra 1st round pick to really fill in the gaps provided this class hits and next years is at the very least decent. 2025 is your window for a SB. It’s far off but that’s the position our GM put us in.

Bingo. Sitting Carlson is a loser decision because it deprives him of a year of experience. He will need that experience when it matters, in the 2024/25 season. Bringing back Mason is a loser decision because he will be even older and have even less leg strength when it matters, when the Packers have home field advantage in a January 2025 playoff game in Green Bay. Can you imagine him kicking off in 0 degrees and the ball not getting past the 20 yard line on January 2025? Can you imagine a 40 yard field goal missing because it did not reach the goal post in January 2025 on a home field playoff game? Well if the Packers cut Carlson and bring back Crosby, that is likely to happen.

This is a prep season for the Packers. To get Van Ness and Gary experienced and fully healthy as the starters in 2024/25. To get the new TE's some NFL experience. To get Watson/Doubs/Reed into what they will be, the most feared WR lineup in the NFL. To upgrade safety with the two 1st round draft picks that they will have next spring. And most importantly, to get Love and Clifford the experience they lack. If the Packers sneak into the playoffs this season, great - but we should not expect more than that. The goal is not the W/L of this season, the goal is to develop the rookies and 2nd year players so that the Lombardi trophy comes home 18 months from now. The way to achieve this is to play the young guys, not to bring back a vet who is already well past his prime.

If Carlson fails, then the Packers will have the money to sign a proven veteran kicker next offseason. Which won't be Mason Crosby because his time is done. If in the meantime, Carlson loses a game or 2, so what? The Packers are going nowhere this coming playoff season and if they miss the playoffs because of Carlson, all it means is that they get 1 less player hurt for the following year and they get a better draft pick. Carlson has everything necessary to be a star, give him the time and space to succeed. And then he will make that 50 yard FG in January 2025 in windy Green Bay that Crosby (or most kickers) have almost no hope of making.

[CWIMM]

We didn't have to wait for Crosby. He came out in preseason and kicked the longest FG in the history of Heinz Field, and then in his first NFL game he kicked a game winner under pressure, in addition to a 53 yarder in that game. He was good from the start.

Carlson is not good from the start.

Crosby wasn't good from the start as he finished 24th out of 31 qualifying kickers during his rookie season in 2007.

The thing about Crosby's "low" FG percentages throughout his career is that we generally gave him tougher kicks, like I remember that one really bad season he had, most of his misses were from 50+ and barely missed. Plus the random 5 missed FG games he would have brought down the numbers in general.

Crosby ranks only 53rd out of 61 kickers with at least 100 attempts in field goal percentage since 2007. Over that period he has the 31st highest average distance of attempts. Therefore he wasn't put in more difficult situations than most other kickers.

Oh ok, well in that case it still can be said that being patient with Crosby (who at that point had several years of being clutch under his belt) is a different case entirely than being patient with a guy who has shown nothing yet.

And I guess now I am on board with at least letting Carlson finish out the preseason to see if he can get back on track. Or like I said if we suck this year, might as well ride him out and see.

But none of the anti-Crosby arguments are good. The guy is and was a solid kicker that you can rely on, and that's exactly what you want if you are trying to win games.

Actually all the numbers support the notion that Crosby was a below average kicker for most of his career.

It has been my recollection over time that the kicks Crosby has missed over the years were generally:

1) Really tough;
2) Coming during one of his mini-slumps (which were often brought on by him missing a really tough kick); or
3) A random odd missed kick here or there.

In my mind, 1 and 2 are acceptable (2 only if the slumps never last long which in his case they don't).

Crosby struggled for long stretches over his career which in my opinion shouldn't be acceptable.

Aaron Jones should have gone because it’s stupid to pay RBs but he’s on track to make $17M.

The Packers only save less than $5 million in cap space by moving on from Jones next season though. Therefore I expect him to be around as long as his production doesn't drop off significantly in 2023.

[TheSkeptic]

The Packers only save less than $5 million in cap space by moving on from Jones next season though. Therefore I expect him to be around as long as his production doesn't drop off significantly in 2023.

Production being yards per snap, not yards per game.

Jones has not had to take a beating. He has split snaps with Dillon and others. His age is not important, it is the number of hits and injuries. He is good for another 3-4 seasons at his present pace. And if the Packers have a legitimate 3rd RB who can play every down and distance situation, it gets even better. They might even want to just give Jones a week off in December 2024 just to prepare for the SB run.

[Yoop]

The thing about Crosby's "low" FG percentages throughout his career is that we generally gave him tougher kicks, like I remember that one really bad season he had, most of his misses were from 50+ and barely missed. Plus the random 5 missed FG games he would have brought down the numbers in general.

That year, 2012, Crosby hit 71% on FGA 30-39 yards. He hit 75% on attempts 40-49 yards. And yes, over 50 yards he was also atrociously bad (2 of 9). His combined attempts under 50 yards, he hit on 14 of 19, or 73%. Blaming his bad year on “tougher kicks” is excuse making. He was bad all-around.

He's still as solid as ever, just with a weaker leg.

Sure, he was solid last year. Not elite by any means, but solid. Not so much the year before. It’s been the story of his career: up one year, down the next. Now he’s another year older and his kickoffs, which rarely make it even to the 5 yd line anymore, ain’t getting any deeper.

“Solid” isn’t difficult to find. If the Packers can’t find a younger, stronger, and cheaper “solid” kicker, then the problem lies with the scouts and/or coaching staff. Bringing back Crosby won’t fix that and chances are his performance, if history and age are any indication, will render it a fruitless endeavor anyway.

if solid is so easy to find why have our GM's kept Crosby around? simple, consistently being a 80% plus kicker for all these years, having a strong leg which is needed to be a outside kicker, and a great team mate, continuity matters, and Crosby has delivered that in spades.
ya just don't try and fix what isn't broken, we could go years now attempting to replace the consistency of Crosby, just like we could go decades to replace our HOF QB, thats why GM's are not as quick triggered as some of us.

It's like some here that would never sign a RB to a second contract even though he supplies a 1/4th of the total yrds, arm chair GM's are never held accountable, never get kicked out of the chair when there decisions blow up, and think everyone is easily replaced, when all fails they get up, go to the fridge and grab another brewski

[Yoop]

The Packers only save less than $5 million in cap space by moving on from Jones next season though. Therefore I expect him to be around as long as his production doesn't drop off significantly in 2023.

Production being yards per snap, not yards per game.

Jones has not had to take a beating. He has split snaps with Dillon and others. His age is not important, it is the number of hits and injuries. He is good for another 3-4 seasons at his present pace. And if the Packers have a legitimate 3rd RB who can play every down and distance situation, it gets even better. They might even want to just give Jones a week off in December 2024 just to prepare for the SB run.

records are made to be broken, that doesn't happen unless a team keeps a player around long enough to break them.

I agree, jones could eventually be used more as a gadget RB/WR versus a featured RB, keep pilling up the yrdage, keep moving the chains, scoring TD's, on a minimal 2 or 3 mil contract