2023 Packers 53-man roster predictions

[BSA]

is it worth a gamble on a similar player with a potentially higher ceiling?

Let's say there are 32 teams, each needing at least (2) CBs capable of playing in the slot. That suggests you're looking at the 65th -75th best slot CB coming available post-cutdowns. That player with upside potential doesn't know the defense and your pro personnel guys don't know him as well as they know Gaines. Its a tough spot for sure. You can probably cut Gaines and go the PS route as you suggested, but what are the odds of finding a better one in September ? And can you get the new guy up to speed quickly in case he's needed ?

Too lazy to go through all of last years' cuts to see which slot CBs were available, but here's the full listing for reference

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootba ... wn-tracker

[YoHoChecko]

Maybe they get lucky and find a slot CB on the open market.. but that's a tall order.

I guess that is where my struggle is. If you've had Gaines for 2+ seasons and don't feel great about him as CB5, is it worth a gamble on a similar player with a potentially higher ceiling? I just don't see Gaines as a player they are afraid to lose by releasing him. He might make sense on the PS, again, where he can be elevated on game days when needed. Same thing with Corey Ballentine and few other of these guys.

My sense was that Gaines was ahead of SJC as Nixon's backup prior to his injury, and is a more valuable ST player than SJC.

But the injury wiped out a lot of time to show that off. Interesting to see if he can re-assert that position in his limited remaining time.

I agree that they could easily release Gaines (and/or SJC) without losing them to waivers, but having a 2-deep at nickelback and a STer seems worth a roster spot most likely. I dunno, I have struggled to adapt my roster expectations to the 16-man multiple-in-season elevations PS reality of roster management, so I get a lot of these types of assertions wrong these days.

[paco]

Who are some guys who were pretty much thought of as roster guys, but maybe that’s flipped the past few weeks.

For me, Toure, Rhyan, and Hollins.

I was thinking about Daguara, but the Tyler Davis injury changed that.

I could see them keeping Dubose and Heath over Toure. None of them likely to get meaningful WR snaps, so stick with ST and upside. Not sure how they all stack up there, but you kind of already know what Toure is.

Rhyan, just haven’t seen a thing yet. Don’t think he’s gunna suit all year unless we are getting real thin. Not sure we have someone more preferable to keep, but maybe.

If Gary is back, guess I don’t see where Hollins fits in with Enegbare having an awesome camp and LVN in there too. I’d probably go with Cox in this case.

Toure for sure. I thought he was going to be the guy to break out in camp. I haven't seen anything at WR to make me say wow and he's been tough to watch on ST (as a returner anyway).

Hollins possibily too with Cox's emergence.

Here's my shot at a final 53. I'm not guessing at who's on the initial 53 and then reverts to IR the next day and all those games. So this is a Game 1 53.

Offense (23)
QB - Love, Clifford
RB - Jones, Dillon
TE/FB - Musgrave, Kraft, Allen, Deguara
WR - Watson, Doubs, Reed, Wicks, Heath, DuBose
OL - Bakhtiari, Jenkins, Myers, Runyan, Tom, Nijman, Walker, Rhyan, Newman

Defense (26)
DL - Clark, Wyatt, T.J. Slaton, Brooks, Wooden, Ford
Edge - Smith, Gary, Van Ness, Enagbare, Cox
LB - Campbell, McDuffie, Walker, Wilson, Phillips
CB - Alexander, Douglas, Nixon, Valentine, Thomas
S - Savage, Ford, Owens, Johnson Jr, Leavitt

ST (3)
K - Carlson
P - O'Donnell
LS - Orzech

Notes...
*I left 1 spot open for a free agent. But it could also be filled by McGough if we carry a 3rd QB, another DB, Carpenter (added ILB depth with Campbell hurt).
*I don't have a 3rd RB. Only way they carry one is for ST. I believe the 3rd RB got something like 12 carries all of last year.
*Stokes stays on the PUP.
*If Pearson is healthy, he may take Deguara's spot
*Not sure I like carrying 9 OL. Newman or Rhyan may be out. Or a surprise Nijman trade.
*O'Donnell gets the nod over Whelan only because we paid him a decent roster bonus already.
*Tried to account for ST snaps with guys like Wilson, especially with Davis out.
*Have a feeling Balentine is probably on there day 1. Might be between him, Thomas, and Gaines for a spot.

[BSA]

*If Pearson is healthy, he may take Deguara's spot

I'd bet heavily against that one.
Deguara makes the 53 and will get a lot of snaps in the Love-driven offense. He'll be 2nd in TE snaps behind Musgrave

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2023 ... rius-smith

[BSA]

* WR Heath is having a hard time assimilating the playbook and is a PS candidate to develop further.
MLF offense features a lot more 12 and 21 personnel which means fewer WRs on the field. Packers probably keep only 5 WR on the initial 53

The Heath comments came from a camp report I read - suggesting that Heath was doing very well in the vanilla preseason offense, but real games and real playbooks would be a bit more challenging for him. With the passage of time- not sure I agree with that assessment anymore - Heath has shown really well and earned a spot.

[paco]

*If Pearson is healthy, he may take Deguara's spot

I'd bet heavily against that one.
Deguara makes the 53 and will get a lot of snaps in the Love-driven offense. He'll be 2nd in TE snaps behind Musgrave

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2023 ... rius-smith

Don't doubt you are right. But he's done bupkis. Been waiting for him to break out and it hasn't happened. If not for a lack of TE's, I think he'd be off the roster. Might still be and they pick up someone else off the street. Slim pickings out there right now though. I'd say ride & die with Musgrave, Kraft and Allen.

[BSA]

But he's done bupkis.

Many fans don't understand his role and why MLF loves him, it appears you're in that same boat. Did you read the linked article ? Its an opportunity to illuminate your view of why he's a valued chess piece and why saying "he's done bupkis" is incorrect. Read the linked article and if you want more, I'm happy to oblige. He's never gonna light up the stat sheet, that's not his role in this offense
You'll get a better view this year as the Packers transition from the hybrid Rodgers-MLF offense to the full on MLF philosophy.

" The Green Bay Packers have found a new identity on offense thanks to their evolving run game, and tight end/fullback Josiah Deguara has played a key role in opening up the team’s rushing attack. It was a dominant performance from the Packers on Sunday, coming away with a 41-17 win over the Minnesota Vikings. Green Bay ran for 163 yards and two touchdowns as a team, averaging an impressive 4.9 yards per carry.

Deguara played a key role in that rushing attack. His 23 snaps were the most he’s played in a game since Week 9, along with a season-high 17 run-blocking snaps. After watching the film from the Week 17 win, it’s clear that Matt LaFleur and Adam Stenavich feel very comfortable rolling out more creative run concepts with the third-year tight end on the field."

[YoHoChecko]

Don't doubt you are right. But he's done bupkis. Been waiting for him to break out and it hasn't happened. If not for a lack of TE's, I think he'd be off the roster. Might still be and they pick up someone else off the street. Slim pickings out there right now though. I'd say ride & die with Musgrave, Kraft and Allen.

I gotta say, strong opinions on TE2 on a rookie contract "not doing enough" are just so strange to me.

Like this is so unimportant. Why would we cut TE depth that costs us basically the minimum because he hasn't developed into a starting-caliber TE? It's an expectations game. Like you've been "waiting for him to break out" so you're frustrated that he hasn't. But as a guy who can play FB and TE on a rookie contract and knows the offense, there's no real urgency to move on or get rid of him.

[Madcity_matt]

But he's done bupkis.

Many fans don't understand his role and why MLF loves him, it appears you're in that same boat. Did you read the linked article ? Its an opportunity to illuminate your view of why he's a valued chess piece and why saying "he's done bupkis" is incorrect. Read the linked article and if you want more, I'm happy to oblige. He's never gonna light up the stat sheet, that's not his role in this offense
You'll get a better view this year as the Packers transition from the hybrid Rodgers-MLF offense to the full on MLF philosophy.

" The Green Bay Packers have found a new identity on offense thanks to their evolving run game, and tight end/fullback Josiah Deguara has played a key role in opening up the team’s rushing attack. It was a dominant performance from the Packers on Sunday, coming away with a 41-17 win over the Minnesota Vikings. Green Bay ran for 163 yards and two touchdowns as a team, averaging an impressive 4.9 yards per carry.

Deguara played a key role in that rushing attack. His 23 snaps were the most he’s played in a game since Week 9, along with a season-high 17 run-blocking snaps. After watching the film from the Week 17 win, it’s clear that Matt LaFleur and Adam Stenavich feel very comfortable rolling out more creative run concepts with the third-year tight end on the field."

My sentiments as well but didn't have the time to engage. To understand the role need to not think of him as a Kittle but as a Juszczyk.

[paco]

Don't doubt you are right. But he's done bupkis. Been waiting for him to break out and it hasn't happened. If not for a lack of TE's, I think he'd be off the roster. Might still be and they pick up someone else off the street. Slim pickings out there right now though. I'd say ride & die with Musgrave, Kraft and Allen.

I gotta say, strong opinions on TE2 on a rookie contract "not doing enough" are just so strange to me.

Like this is so unimportant. Why would we cut TE depth that costs us basically the minimum because he hasn't developed into a starting-caliber TE? It's an expectations game. Like you've been "waiting for him to break out" so you're frustrated that he hasn't. But as a guy who can play FB and TE on a rookie contract and knows the offense, there's no real urgency to move on or get rid of him.

I understand that, and BSA's points. I've not expecting him to break out as a TE1. But I did expect a bit more than what he's given. At least be more available and consistent. Yes, he plays a role and has done some good things. He's also not been very healthy and he plays a role that can be found elsewhere as well.

How important is it compared to other roles on ST or at DB or someplace else? I don't know.

Plus, I really don't care what any player on this team did last year. It's all different with Love at the helm. You guys mistake my opinion on this as "Strong". It's just a musing for the most part. If he's there, he's there. But I pretty much equate that spot as a roster number 45-53 type decision. At that point, everyone is expendable and replaceable.

[paco]

But he's done bupkis.

Many fans don't understand his role and why MLF loves him, it appears you're in that same boat. Did you read the linked article ? Its an opportunity to illuminate your view of why he's a valued chess piece and why saying "he's done bupkis" is incorrect. Read the linked article and if you want more, I'm happy to oblige. He's never gonna light up the stat sheet, that's not his role in this offense
You'll get a better view this year as the Packers transition from the hybrid Rodgers-MLF offense to the full on MLF philosophy.

" The Green Bay Packers have found a new identity on offense thanks to their evolving run game, and tight end/fullback Josiah Deguara has played a key role in opening up the team’s rushing attack. It was a dominant performance from the Packers on Sunday, coming away with a 41-17 win over the Minnesota Vikings. Green Bay ran for 163 yards and two touchdowns as a team, averaging an impressive 4.9 yards per carry.

Deguara played a key role in that rushing attack. His 23 snaps were the most he’s played in a game since Week 9, along with a season-high 17 run-blocking snaps. After watching the film from the Week 17 win, it’s clear that Matt LaFleur and Adam Stenavich feel very comfortable rolling out more creative run concepts with the third-year tight end on the field."

My sentiments as well but didn't have the time to engage. To understand the role need to not think of him as a Kittle but as a Juszczyk.

And he certainly hasn't been Juszczyk either. If he was, I'd bang the table for him. Remember, I'm a guy who had and has continued to bang the table for Mercedes. Someone many thought should have been gone long ago for not providing anything on the field/stat sheet.

[Bogey]

That's why I mentioned Innes Gaines above, everybody else is better on the outside - while he has shown the ability to be a slot CB. Gaines is a bigger DB at 6'1 202 lbs and can handle the banging inside. He's a slightly more athletic Jarret Bush 2.0 with CB, S and ST skills. Not sure you're going to find a better option on cutdown day - his versatility is what you're looking for at the end of the roster.

[Bogey]

Offense (24)
QB: Love, Clifford
RB: Jones, Dillon
WR: Watson, Doubs, Reed, Toure, Heath, Wicks
TE: Musgrave, Kraft, Deguara, Allen
OT: Bak, Tom, Walker, Njiman, Jones
OG: Jenkins, Runyan, Rhyan, Newman
OC: Myers
Possible they keep 7 WRs with Dubose. If so, Newman gone. Tom can play T/G/C.

DEFENSE - 26
DL: Clark, Wyatt, Slaton, Wooden, Brooks, Ford
EDGE: Gary, Smith, Enagbare, Van Ness, Hollins, Cox
LB: Campbell, Walker, McDuffie, Carpenter
CB: Alexander, Douglas, Nixon, Valentine, Ballentine
S: Savage, Ford, Leavitt, Owens, Gaines

PUP: Stokes

I believe Thump Gaines (versatility: safety, slot, ST) gets the nod ahead of Moore -- and even ahead of Leavitt if it comes down to that.

[YoHoChecko]

It feels like a lot of people rostering Owens and it also seems like he's possibly been the worst of our safeties according to a couple sources here and there. Is it the Simone Biles effect? The run stop grade last year for Houston (even though it has not appeared as sound in camp/preseason this year)?

I feel like if I had to cut one safety from our crew, Owens would be the first to go; and we'll likely have to cut two.

[NCF]

I feel like if I had to cut one safety from our crew, Owens would be the first to go; and we'll likely have to cut two.

I have been beating that drum since we signed him. I had him on my initial 53, but I updated it this morning. He's out, Leavitt is back in.

[NCF]

I still think if Tarvarius Moore is healthy, he'll start next to Savage. Everyone is back on the Rudy wagon, but Moore is the better player.

[paco]

I still think if Tarvarius Moore is healthy, he'll start next to Savage. Everyone is back on the Rudy wagon, but Moore is the better player.

Moore's health was the main reason I rostered Owens. I honestly didn't look up his status before putting it together. Will he play tomorrow?

[BSA]

Moore is the better player.

This is an article written in 2019, really good info on Moore and how he was poised for a bigger role in the talented SF defense before his achilles injury

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-49ers-defe ... rius-moore

"During his time in college, Moore played 665 of his 1,022 defensive snaps at either free safety or in the box — roles in which he excelled. From his snaps at safety over that two-year stretch, Moore earned an 86.2 coverage grade and allowed just nine completions on 24 targets for 173 yards and one touchdown, logging five interceptions and two additional forced incompletions in the process. He allowed a passer rating of just 37.7 on throws into his coverage — the third-best mark among players with at least 20 targets in coverage from the safety position.
Moore’s skill set is tailor-made for the defensive approach that the 49ers would like to run in 2019. He has the size and skills to support the run and has the speed to cover deep. Now that he's being given the chance to play his natural position, the former Southern Mississippi safety has the chance to break out in 2019"
.

[BF004]

Who are some guys who were pretty much thought of as roster guys, but maybe that’s flipped the past few weeks.

For me, Toure, Rhyan, and Hollins.

I was thinking about Daguara, but the Tyler Davis injury changed that.

I could see them keeping Dubose and Heath over Toure. None of them likely to get meaningful WR snaps, so stick with ST and upside. Not sure how they all stack up there, but you kind of already know what Toure is.

Rhyan, just haven’t seen a thing yet. Don’t think he’s gunna suit all year unless we are getting real thin. Not sure we have someone more preferable to keep, but maybe.

If Gary is back, guess I don’t see where Hollins fits in with Enegbare having an awesome camp and LVN in there too. I’d probably go with Cox in this case.

Bout GD time, that’s a nice block.



I’m keeping Cox over Hollins at this point.

[BSA]

I’m keeping Cox over Hollins at this point.

I think both make the 53 and little chance Cox makes it to PS after his summer in Titletown.
Cox has been a model citizen since his arrival and that was the only thing holding him back, he has the skills/athleticism to play in the NFL