Rookies/First-Year Players

[NCF]

So, across the league, many rookies and first-year players are essentially preparing to red-shirt this season as they didn't get the reps/snaps necessary to be able to get ready to play. My question is, after the season and heading into the offseason, where do we expect these guys to be heading into training camp next year?

Do we have to almost treat them as rookies/first-year players all over again? Or will they have absorbed enough, even in their "red-shirt" year, that we should be able to consider them what we would normally consider our Year 2 jump guys? Just curious how far behind they will still be when we head into next season.

Will they be head and shoulders ahead of the new class of rookies or on pretty level playing field?

[YoHoChecko]

So, across the league, many rookies and first-year players are essentially preparing to red-shirt this season as they didn't get the reps/snaps necessary to be able to get ready to play. My question is, after the season and heading into the offseason, where do we expect these guys to be heading into training camp next year?

Do we have to almost treat them as rookies/first-year players all over again? Or will they have absorbed enough, even in their "red-shirt" year, that we should be able to consider them what we would normally consider our Year 2 jump guys? Just curious how far behind they will still be when we head into next season.

Will they be head and shoulders ahead of the new class of rookies or on pretty level playing field?

Interesting topic, I've been thinking about this a lot lately, actually.

I think this is an AWESOME year to be a rookie in the NFL, aside from the very few guys who were expected to make an impact right away (maybe like top 2-3 round type players on teams with open spots for them in the starting lineup).

There is nothing to do but football. The distractions are closed down, by and large. The "first time having money" impact that often sets people down the wrong course financially or in terms of prioritizing the game isn't going to be as big of a factor. You're basically going to spend the whole season in a training camp environment--all football all the time.

I think that guys like Love and Deguara and Kamal Martin are going to be entering year two ready to make HUGE second year leaps in terms of their understanding and ability to make the most of their opportunities for snaps next season. I think fans often really underestimate how much development happens through a season of pro-style practices, film study, and adaptation to the level.

[TheGreenMan]

Well, outside of how dedicated each player is in learning and absorbing the information this year in the limited playing time they're going to receive, I think a lot of them can fall behind. This definitely goes for those that were not drafted.

If you're not in a controlled teaching/football environment I definitely can see some guys start to slip. YoHo mentions that a lot of the distractions are closed, but I'm not so sure I can agree with this assessment. Pending on where you live maybe, but I don't know of a single business or entertainment venue that is closed because of the pandemic. It's all back to normal, outside of a mask requirement. Sounds like there's lots to do besides attending football related activities that don't allow the player to actually get any real game time (preseason).

Like what was said early, I think it's going to really depend on the player and just how dedicated they are in pursuing a career in football. Some are going to be just fine, but low draft guys and walk on's I can certainly see struggling.

Yeah, definitely don't think the players would find it "awesome" to be a football player right now.

[YoHoChecko]

If you're not in a controlled teaching/football environment I definitely can see some guys start to slip. YoHo mentions that a lot of the distractions are closed, but I'm not so sure I can agree with this assessment. Pending on where you live maybe, but I don't know of a single business or entertainment venue that is closed because of the pandemic. It's all back to normal, outside of a mask requirement. Sounds like there's lots to do besides attending football related activities that don't allow the player to actually get any real game time (preseason).

Every. single. player interview has talked about not doing the wrong things, not exposing the team to the virus and staying away from all of that.

I don't think the players are having, like, fun. I think that the all-football year where there is a player-driven focus on staying away from COVID and protecting each other will have massive benefits to the speed at which players who likely wouldn't get a lot of game time anyway can absorb and develop.

Remember that only 2 Packers rookies had 300+ snaps last year and most had less than 150. The VAST majority of rookies weren't going to get real game experience, anyway. It's a bad year to be a rookie who has to play a lot with minimal prep. It's a bad year to be a fringe roster guy who gets cut after two practices without a chance to prove it.

But for all the guys in between, who make the roster/PS, I think it is a very advantageous season to learn football.

[BF004]

My expectations wouldn't be very different for the rookies this year, if we had drafted any rookies in a position to be able to help, so hard to say. Maybe measured in weeks behind, but not a year behind.

Yeah, not really expecting much from any of them this year.

But one position I damn sure expect to see some return soon on is TE after back to back 3rd rounders.

[TheGreenMan]

If you're not in a controlled teaching/football environment I definitely can see some guys start to slip. YoHo mentions that a lot of the distractions are closed, but I'm not so sure I can agree with this assessment. Pending on where you live maybe, but I don't know of a single business or entertainment venue that is closed because of the pandemic. It's all back to normal, outside of a mask requirement. Sounds like there's lots to do besides attending football related activities that don't allow the player to actually get any real game time (preseason).

Every. single. player interview has talked about not doing the wrong things, not exposing the team to the virus and staying away from all of that.

I don't think the players are having, like, fun. I think that the all-football year where there is a player-driven focus on staying away from COVID and protecting each other will have massive benefits to the speed at which players who likely wouldn't get a lot of game time anyway can absorb and develop.

Remember that only 2 Packers rookies had 300+ snaps last year and most had less than 150. The VAST majority of rookies weren't going to get real game experience, anyway. It's a bad year to be a rookie who has to play a lot with minimal prep. It's a bad year to be a fringe roster guy who gets cut after two practices without a chance to prove it.

But for all the guys in between, who make the roster/PS, I think it is a very advantageous season to learn football.

I wouldn't expect any player with a mic in front of his face to not say they're doing the right things and staying away, I'm sure a lot of those MLB and NBA players are also saying the same things. NBA, easy. MLB - probably should have been easier than what they're facing right now. Just with the sheer amount of people needed to put on an NFL season, crew, field guys... much harder to stay away. I'm absolutely in the "I'll believe it when I see it" regards to how the NFL is going to do football.

But, yes, I wasn't expecting a whole lot from any rookie (lower half of draft) or walk on. That snap count is understandably low, but those guys had the opportunity to really fight and show they belong on a roster. Many, many guys are not getting those chances this year.

[Waldo]

How much value do you actually think players take from OTA's? The workload isn't that much lower in camp than typical; though they miss out on the game snaps, you're still talking about a workload that is a fraction of a regular game, and if anything it might help prevent the rookie wall burnout at the end of the year.

The mental side of things, digging into the playbook, and the physical side, working out to get in tip top shape, were not seriously hampered by Covid for most players. If anything players appear to be in better shape than usual, and all reports from camp early on were that mental mistakes are way down this year.

We as fans overemphasize the practice reps, marginalizing the study and physical side of things. These guys are world class athletes, adding 20 lbs to the squat bar and adding 10% to their FTP is going to translate to the field even more than a slightly better refinement on technique they've been working on for the last 10 years. And the mental side of the game is all about the classroom.

[YoHoChecko]

My expectations wouldn't be very different for the rookies this year, if we had drafted any rookies in a position to be able to help, so hard to say. Maybe measured in weeks behind, but not a year behind.

Yeah, not really expecting much from any of them this year.

But one position I damn sure expect to see some return soon on is TE after back to back 3rd rounders.

I was thinking NCF's original post was more about what to expect from them moving forward from this year; whether we'd think of them as "rookies all over again" or not.

And I am of the opinion that no, they will not be rookies all over again. I think they'll be regular second-year players, going through a full offseason program in a system for the first time just as regular 2nd-year players would... but with the added benefit that their practice habits, study habits, and mental processing and understanding may actually be ahead of a normal second year player because they were forced to focus so much on the mental side of the game thus year, they had relatively fewer distractions from football, and they have all the installs and practice meeting on replayable recorded formats where they can go back and review things they missed or weren't picking up.

I think that this season will force a lot of guys who normally rely first on athletic ability and second on processing to learn and develop and digest more of the processing than they normally would as rookies. That's all.

[NCF]

I was thinking NCF's original post was more about what to expect from them moving forward from this year; whether we'd think of them as "rookies all over again" or not.

And I am of the opinion that no, they will not be rookies all over again. I think they'll be regular second-year players, going through a full offseason program in a system for the first time just as regular 2nd-year players would... but with the added benefit that their practice habits, study habits, and mental processing and understanding may actually be ahead of a normal second year player because they were forced to focus so much on the mental side of the game thus year, they had relatively fewer distractions from football, and they have all the installs and practice meeting on replayable recorded formats where they can go back and review things they missed or weren't picking up.

Yeah, exactly. You seem to identify a few positives, but of course the big negative is no live game reps in preseason, and for most of the crop (hopefully) no game reps needed during the season. That is the big down side and I guess that is what I am trying to weigh. How valuable is the process without being able to "show it out" on the field against another team.

I tend to think its a big deal, but I am just not sure how much of a big deal it is. How quickly can they make up for those missing reps next year and how susceptible are they to having the next crop of kids steal their thunder?

[BF004]

My expectations wouldn't be very different for the rookies this year, if we had drafted any rookies in a position to be able to help, so hard to say. Maybe measured in weeks behind, but not a year behind.

Yeah, not really expecting much from any of them this year.

But one position I damn sure expect to see some return soon on is TE after back to back 3rd rounders.

I was thinking NCF's original post was more about what to expect from them moving forward from this year; whether we'd think of them as "rookies all over again" or not.

And I am of the opinion that no, they will not be rookies all over again. I think they'll be regular second-year players, going through a full offseason program in a system for the first time just as regular 2nd-year players would... but with the added benefit that their practice habits, study habits, and mental processing and understanding may actually be ahead of a normal second year player because they were forced to focus so much on the mental side of the game thus year, they had relatively fewer distractions from football, and they have all the installs and practice meeting on replayable recorded formats where they can go back and review things they missed or weren't picking up.

I think that this season will force a lot of guys who normally rely first on athletic ability and second on processing to learn and develop and digest more of the processing than they normally would as rookies. That's all.

Again, still going to be really hard to judge next year with this specific class. I mean short of us bombing this year and moving Aaron next offseason, should be no legitimate expectations for Love. Dillon is really the only one I can think of that will have real expectations of contribution next as he gets more comfortable in pass pro. Even a 3rd string TE/FB, hard to gauge that for Josiah. Not really a position of quick impact and a somewhat crowded TE room. Then just a bunch of late rounders that never have any real expectations at this point.

Between Martin and Scott, would be nice to get one of them to provide some quality snaps in the box, particularly against the run. Hopefully we end up with 1 average level starter from the 3 OL guys long term.

If some of our first 4 rounders were like RT, WR, ILB, CB, DT, etc. then I think this question could be answered better.

[Waldo]

How quickly can they make up for those missing reps next year and how susceptible are they to having the next crop of kids steal their thunder?

Next year's crop of kids is going to be WAY behind your typical rookies.

[YoHoChecko]

Yeah, exactly. You seem to identify a few positives, but of course the big negative is no live game reps in preseason, and for most of the crop (hopefully) no game reps needed during the season. That is the big down side and I guess that is what I am trying to weigh. How valuable is the process without being able to "show it out" on the field against another team.

I tend to think its a big deal, but I am just not sure how much of a big deal it is. How quickly can they make up for those missing reps next year and how susceptible are they to having the next crop of kids steal their thunder?

So I think I'm looking at it differently because of our draft class.

So we drafted Jordan Love in Round One. The idea was for him not to play at all this year. I think what he personally will learn from waiting a year that he was normally going to have to wait anyway, in an environment where he is basically spending the year inside learning football is very good.

And we drafted Josiah Deguara in Round Three, a TE, which is a position that almost never makes a major impact in year one because they have so much to learn to play sort of slot WR, TE, and FB with big learning curves in terms of the blocking they have to do compared to their college roles.

AJ Dillon is our only high-round pick at a position where a lot of rookies are super effective or we might expect a big role right away, otherwise.

So I dunno, I think we basically have a class of guys who were likely a year away anyway. So I like that they are spending their "redshirts" with a playbook-heavy, low key social year in the league.

[TheGreenMan]

How quickly can they make up for those missing reps next year and how susceptible are they to having the next crop of kids steal their thunder?

Next year's crop of kids is going to be WAY behind your typical rookies.

This is also a good point.

With college football definitely being questioned, if we think the rookies in the NFL now are going to have a hard time next year, than this class of kids coming up are really going to be behind.

What do you do as a college player, with no football.

[TheGreenMan]

I guess if you're strictly looking at this question from a Packers standpoint, you may feel different about it. If you're judging player/ position, and where they were taken in the draft, if at all, on another team... you might feel differently about the impact.

[YoHoChecko]

I guess if you're strictly looking at this question from a Packers standpoint, you may feel different about it. If you're judging player/ position, and where they were taken in the draft, if at all... you might feel differently about the impact.

Yeah, I specifically started thinking about this was it yesterday or the day before when Love, Dillon, and Deguara all had their media access. And having heard from the coaches about how especially Love and Deguara are big in the playbook and are doing a great job learning and doing what's asked... and then hearing each f them sort of talk about how they've really had nothing going on except learning football all summer... it just got me thinking that THESE TWO are going to benefit from this environment. If you love football and you play a position that is heavily mental/academic, this is going to be great for you.

I think that also applies to OLinemen, who are often among the smartest players ont he team. They obviously need reps and continuity to learn each other, but I feel like the extra focus on the mental aspect will be beneficial at that position, also.

In essence, I think we in particular, have a draft class full of guys with more complex mental jobs, aside from the RB--positions that generally develop a little more slowly and specifically with players who seem eager to use the time well. I think, especially the recorded, re-playable meetings, are really going to benefit those guys.

If you're a team that drafted 3 speedy WRs that need a lot of refinement (cough eagles cough) then this probably will hurt year one and not have much value impact at all in year two.

[YoHoChecko]

sort of a subject shift, but this thread seems as good a place as any....

Here's the Packers' #2 and #3 WRs compared to this year's crop of rookies we theoretically could have drafted with a reasonable trade-up, trade back, or staying put in either the 1st or second rounds.

image.png (22.8 KiB) Viewed 240 times

Justin Jefferson stormed into this comparison with a huge day in week 3. One more catch and 29 more yards than Lazard yesterday.

Ayiuk also had a rushing TD yesterday, which isn't shown here.