Week 3 games

[YoHoChecko]

OMG THE REFS CALL LEVERAGE ON A FG ATTEMPT AND THE RAIDERS KEEP THE DRIVE ALIVE

Can't really tell what's happening, but the rules guy says it's a legit foul (and he said Fitzpatrick's was a bad call, so i trust him)

[YoHoChecko]

Garoppolo has happy feet and nervous eyes.

For good reason, mind you, but he’s clearly bringing his eyes into the rush while passing.

Very much so

[APB]

That was another incredibly ticky-tack call on Pittsburgh. That “leverage” occurs on damn near every FG attempt.

[YoHoChecko]

That was another incredibly ticky-tack call on Pittsburgh. That “leverage” occurs on damn near every FG attempt.

Ended up making no difference except cost the Raiders more time

[APB]

I admit I’m no expert on the “analytics” decisions but I do not understand kicking the FG there.

Ended up making no difference except cost the Raiders more time

Yeah, ended up helping the Steelers. Weird.

[APB]

Good thing they kicked that FG with 2 minutes left. They lost…better.

[paco]

3 things I knew coming into this season (and so should've everyone else)....

Josh McDaniels is overrated.
Sean Payton is overrated.
Russell Wilson will never again be the answer (even if it isn't all his fault)

[YoHoChecko]

[YoHoChecko]

Patrick Peterson on the postgame show talking about how at this stage in his career he's focusing on having fun and without missing a beat a tv guy says "yeah but you gave up two TDs last week"

I died.

[APB]

Alan Lazard he is not…

[YoHoChecko]

I admit I’m no expert on the “analytics” decisions but I do not understand kicking the FG there.

I actually got to thinking about it and remember the logic behind it now.

Playing for 8 points is playing for a tie. Playing for 2 scores is playing for a win. I'll explain further.

(YoHo's note: I still prefer going for it, but it's more of a toss-up than I realized at first)

The scenario: It's 4th and 4 inside the ten, you're down 8. There's 2:20 or so left in the game and you have three time outs.

Ok, so let's play out the two scenarios in terms of what it takes to win the game from the point the decision is made:

If you Go for It, here's what you need to win the game:
- convert 4th and 4 successfully (single attempt point of failure)
- score a TD, perhaps on 4th and 4, perhaps on a subsequent play
- convert the 2-point conversion (single attempt point of failure)
- get a defensive stop to prevent an opposing FG/score in the final 2 minutes of the game
At this point you head to Overtime. You are subject to a coin toss which notably impacts the odds of winning. Regardless you still need:
- a score
- a defensive stop (likely, unless you win the toss and score a TD on the first drive)

If you Kick the FG, here's what you need to win the game:
- make the FG (single attempt point of failure, high likelihood)
- Get a 3 & out defensive stop
- Score a TD on the next drive


While the odds of getting a 3 & out and scoring a TD on the next drive may in fact be lower than the odds of going the other way (I'm not sure how it breaks down mathematically), kicking the FG gives you a much cleaner, clearer, simpler path to VICTORY (not a tie) than going for it on 4th and 4--and reduces the single-play point of failure.


Not to mention if you fail to convert the 4th and 4 or the 2-point conversion, you're left needing a 3 & out and an additional score anyway, just to tie, which is the same thing you need after the FG to win.


Again, I think the math is probably 60/40 or 55/45 toward going for it, if I had to guess (/if I recall from when MLF did this). But the path to victory rather than a tie is much more well-known. It's an information advantage of knowing exactly what you need and a reduction of variables involved. Similar to how Waldron's article APB posted in our post-game thread points out that going for 2 the first time gives you an informational advantage for the second score (but the math on that is a lot more obvious and cleaner than the math on this)


So yeah, the FG is a weird call; but not an indefensible one.

[YoHoChecko]

Fantastic image

[Pugger]

Vikings just lost a heart breaker 28-24. Cousins' pass got tipped twice and picked in the end zone.

Yeah, caught the end.

Staley has no business being a HC. The Chargers won despite his idiotic decisions.

Both of these HCs looked like morons.

[Pugger]

Cards telling Dallas it's still September ladies

We were watching NFL Red Zone and couldn't believe the way the Cards beat the girls. Very nice indeed.

[Pugger]

Between the Cowboys, Ravens, and Jaguars losses, half of my Survivor League got the boot today.

…including me. $%@# Jaguars…

After last season I thought the Jags would be better than what they are showing so far this year.

[Pugger]

The Dolphins had 726 yards of offense, holy f


70 could be a few random events coming together, 726 yards of offense is just very intentional. That it way more impressive to me than the points.

I don't think Denver has a chance of being top 20 in defense any more. Holy crap.

Remember when everyone kept insisting that Rodgers would go to Denver because their roster was Super Bowl ready aside from the QB and I was like "huh? What are you guys talking about? Their roster seems... fine? I guess " and they've been bottom ten in the NFL for a year and a half now?

That sentiment was the talk over on FF big time. lol

[Pugger]

Garoppolo just threw one of the dumbest panic interceptions I’ve ever seen. Holy Early Christmas, Batman…

I hope he plays like that when we play LV...

[Pugger]

Still so fun watching Davante play.

Miss that guy

I wonder if he is regretting his decision to go to Vegas now?

[Labrev]

Nah it's cool, Adams is closer to family.

[YoHoChecko]

I'd like to see a point of emphasis on no forward motion before the snap. It's technically a penalty but a lot of motion guys really push the limit.

No, not push the line. Break the rule. A ton of guys break the rule. And it bothers me. Just saw it by Cade Otten. Davante used to get away with it a lot for us. Didn't watch much of Miami, but I bet they have a ton of that, too