Love SZN: Official Thread of QB1.

[Yoop]

Hopefully this clears up my point. I’m not sure why my words are being continually misconstrued, and not only by you, but it’s become a thing lately.

I apologize for my reading difficulties, and enjoy most of your post, please keep sharing I'll try and do better

I think where all a bit thin skinned, and this family has been around a long time, so we tend to do that family thing at times and get on each others nerves, and I think losing brings out the worst in everyone, hopefully better games are in our future.

[Yoop]

copied from another source

Over Gute's first 6 seasons in charge of the draft, the Packers have drafted on average the 19.7th pick in the 1st round. Over Lynch's first 6 drafts, he averaged the 9.6th pick of the draft. That's 10 slots higher, and that includes 4 top-12 picks for San Francisco as opposed to just 1 for Green Bay.


I brought that in response that SF and GB's drafts have been similaire, a top 10 pick obviously increases the odds over anyone taken 10 slots later, and that holds true through every round.

I think the opinion that coaching is the difference may have some merit, but ya know thats going to lead me back to my pet topics. skill position value just springs to the fore front, when it gets to prime time PO games we always seem short handed, either we lose a guy, or defenses are able to scheme up better coverage then we where use to all season, while there offenses abuse our poorly prepared defense.

[LombardiTime]

History of 49ers draft classes.

The 49ers have not had the "banger drafts" like many believe them to have had. They have hit on a player or two in some years, just like many teams do, but to characterize their drafts as consistently exemplary is a serious stretch.

Anyway, I just wanted to share some perspective in light of seeing several posters singing the praises of the awesome 49ers and their awesome organization. They embraced the suck for many years to get to where they are now and are no more consistent in their drafts than anyone else.

I guess I’m just not communicating very effectively.

My post was directed specifically toward refuting a claim of recent 49er “banging” drafts made by a member.

I acknowledged some successes they’ve had in mid/late round picks. I also acknowledged hitting on the no. 2 overall pick a few years back. Hell, if it means that much to you to shine a light on Aiyuk’s 17 game barely 1k yd season, I’ll concede it. But you cannot deny they’ve had plenty of misses, and those misses have come from draft positions consistently within the top 10 of rounds over the past (near) decade.

One solid pick from the 5th round does not completely dismiss misses in rounds 1-4. One stud LB pick in R3 does not overshadow misses in every other round. When taken in whole, hits and misses, they’ve been no better than any other typical drafting team. Worse than several, actually, when you consider the position they were drafting from and the top end whiffs.

And yes, better than the Packers, who have missed completely on quite a few drafts lately albeit drafting from consistently unfavorable (low) draft positions. But I never said the Packer drafts (of late) compared favorably to those of the 49ers. Why was that comparison even brought up in your response?

Further, you went on to refute my post with other roster building moves the 49ers have recently made i.e. trades and FA signings. Again, I never even addressed those things. My post was aimed specifically to a distorted claim of 49er “banging” drafts.

Hopefully this clears up my point. I’m not sure why my words are being continually misconstrued, and not only by you, but it’s become a thing lately.

The original posts I read were about Green Bay's relative disadvantage when it came to acquiring free agents and that led to a discussion of how the 49ers built their roster on the offensive side of the ball. I guess that is why I compared the Packers drafting record to that of the 49ers on a chat board dedicated to the Green Bay Packers

In any event, to the extent your post was about the Niners not consistently "banging" their drafts in building their team, I absolutely concur and don't want to give any impression to the contrary.

To the extent that your post detailed that the Niners have had several recent premium round 1 picks, I also believe it was spot on.

And to the extent your post pointed out how the Niners "missed" on several top picks again I completely concur. The trade for Lance being the most glaring example.

However, to the extent the post was intended to provide some "perspective in light of seeing several posters singing the praises of the awesome 49ers and their awesome organization," it was, in my view, a skewed or at least incomplete presentation of the 49ers drafting record that I don't believe I misconstrued.

First, and to reiterate, the 49ers have selected a number of impact players outside of round 1 such as Samuel, Kittle, Warner, Greenlaw, and Purdy and thus I disagree with the premise that their drafting record is "tarnished" because they have "picked near the top of the draft."

But more to the point, a post pointing out the 49ers many drafting deficiencies in order to provide supposed needed "perspective" to other posters who are "singing the praises of the ... awesome 49ers organization" without acknowledging that SF obtained an All-Pro LT in a trade for 3rd and 5th round picks and perhaps the best RB in the game in exchange for 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th round picks is quite the omission.

The willingness to trade draft picks to obtain Williams and McCaffrey is, in my opinion, one of the key reasons to sing the praises of the 49ers organization. Those trades were a "bang up" use of those draft picks.

(For the record, you state that my post "went on to refute [your] post with other roster building moves the 49ers have recently made i.e. trades and FA signings. That is simply not true. I never mentioned any trades that did not involve 49er draft picks that were exchanged for players. I merely pointed out that your post criticizing the 49ers' drafting record did not account for the players the 49ers' obtained in exchange for draft picks. I also never mentioned any FA signings. None. Zero.)

In summary, I likewise hope my position is clarified in that I believe it vitally important in critiquing a team's "draft" history to consider not just the players actually selected by the team but also players obtained when those picks are traded away.

[APB]

In summary, I likewise hope my position is clarified in that I believe it vitally important in critiquing a team's "draft" history to consider not just the players actually selected by the team but also players obtained when those picks are traded away.

That’s fair enough, in the context of the argument you’re now making.

The statement I was refuting made no such argument. The argument made was their offense was built primarily through “banger” drafts. The players cited did not include Williams or CMC nor mention of any picks not actually made by the team (traded away).

A subsequent post has since shifted the goalposts in that argument but I think it clear, in the context of the specific statement I was replying to, that the perception of draft prowess of the 49er organization was being significantly distorted.

[Drj820]

In summary, I likewise hope my position is clarified in that I believe it vitally important in critiquing a team's "draft" history to consider not just the players actually selected by the team but also players obtained when those picks are traded away.

That’s fair enough, in the context of the argument you’re now making.

The statement I was refuting made no such argument. The argument made was their offense was built primarily through “banger” drafts. The players cited did not include Williams or CMC nor mention of any picks not actually made by the team (traded away).

A subsequent post has since shifted the goalposts in that argument but I think it clear, in the context of the specific statement I was replying to, that the perception of draft prowess of the 49er organization was being significantly distorted.

One can analyze each draft for hits and misses and score them all they want, but if you have the best roster in the league by far..and most of your best players were acquired through the draft…you’ve been very successful and you’ve been drafting bangers, and to nit pick otherwise is just being a hater. Like no one outside of people wanting to defend Guteys drafting record denies that the niners have found gold in late rounds and this has contributed to their dominant roster. I stand by my claim that if you find a TE in the 5th and he’s AP level, it doesn’t matter what happens in 1-4. You had a successful draft. Especially when you have so few needs going into each draft like the niners.

[Yoop]

I ( for quite while ) think it's much harder now to win just using the old tried and true method of drafting and developing, it takes to long to develop, and by the time given for that to happen two or more seasons are gone by, other prior talent is leaving in UFA ( ya can't afford everyone that is not much better then just starter talent, or have gotten so good ya can't afford them)

certain positions are just to hard to hit on, like DL, like safety, even CB, which have mostly been a revolving door for us, in the long and short, buying that talent, trading draft picks seems more productive to me.

we all have watched Belichick bring in older vets to shore up missed draft picks for 2 decades, and we've all watched Philly, SF, and others build power house teams fortifying in just that way, I know as a owner I'am willing to open the wallet for a OL man tomorrow,

[Yoop]

In summary, I likewise hope my position is clarified in that I believe it vitally important in critiquing a team's "draft" history to consider not just the players actually selected by the team but also players obtained when those picks are traded away.

That’s fair enough, in the context of the argument you’re now making.

The statement I was refuting made no such argument. The argument made was their offense was built primarily through “banger” drafts. The players cited did not include Williams or CMC nor mention of any picks not actually made by the team (traded away).

A subsequent post has since shifted the goalposts in that argument but I think it clear, in the context of the specific statement I was replying to, that the perception of draft prowess of the 49er organization was being significantly distorted.

One can analyze each draft for hits and misses and score them all they want, but if you have the best roster in the league by far..and most of your best players were acquired through the draft…you’ve been very successful and you’ve been drafting bangers, and to nit pick otherwise is just being a hater. Like no one outside of people wanting to defend Guteys drafting record denies that the niners have found gold in late rounds and this has contributed to their dominant roster. I stand by my claim that if you find a TE in the 5th and he’s AP level, it doesn’t matter what happens in 1-4. You had a successful draft. Especially when you have so few needs going into each draft like the niners.

just asking, but at what point (round) does the draft feel like a crap shoot to you?

for the record I think the crap shoot starts at slot 1 (ONE) of the first round, hitting on players at any slot is like playing darts from 30 yards out, and with each round ya back up 10 yrds

[Drj820]

That’s fair enough, in the context of the argument you’re now making.

The statement I was refuting made no such argument. The argument made was their offense was built primarily through “banger” drafts. The players cited did not include Williams or CMC nor mention of any picks not actually made by the team (traded away).

A subsequent post has since shifted the goalposts in that argument but I think it clear, in the context of the specific statement I was replying to, that the perception of draft prowess of the 49er organization was being significantly distorted.

One can analyze each draft for hits and misses and score them all they want, but if you have the best roster in the league by far..and most of your best players were acquired through the draft…you’ve been very successful and you’ve been drafting bangers, and to nit pick otherwise is just being a hater. Like no one outside of people wanting to defend Guteys drafting record denies that the niners have found gold in late rounds and this has contributed to their dominant roster. I stand by my claim that if you find a TE in the 5th and he’s AP level, it doesn’t matter what happens in 1-4. You had a successful draft. Especially when you have so few needs going into each draft like the niners.

just asking, but at what point (round) does the draft feel like a crap shoot to you?

for the record I think the crap shoot starts at slot 1 (ONE) of the first round, hitting on players at any slot is like playing darts from 30 yards out, and with each round ya back up 10 yrds

It’s a little random for everyone. How random and how quickly it becomes totally random depends on an orgs scouting department, their team philosophy, their draft philosophy, and the overall eye and skill of the GM. I think the niners knew they got someone Shanny could have a lot of fun with when they drafted Kittle.

[Yoop]

One can analyze each draft for hits and misses and score them all they want, but if you have the best roster in the league by far..and most of your best players were acquired through the draft…you’ve been very successful and you’ve been drafting bangers, and to nit pick otherwise is just being a hater. Like no one outside of people wanting to defend Guteys drafting record denies that the niners have found gold in late rounds and this has contributed to their dominant roster. I stand by my claim that if you find a TE in the 5th and he’s AP level, it doesn’t matter what happens in 1-4. You had a successful draft. Especially when you have so few needs going into each draft like the niners.

just asking, but at what point (round) does the draft feel like a crap shoot to you?

for the record I think the crap shoot starts at slot 1 (ONE) of the first round, hitting on players at any slot is like playing darts from 30 yards out, and with each round ya back up 10 yrds

It’s a little random for everyone. How random and how quickly it becomes totally random depends on an orgs scouting department, their team philosophy, their draft philosophy, and the overall eye and skill of the GM. I think the niners knew they got someone Shanny could have a lot of fun with when they drafted Kittle.

believe me the Niners had no more idea then most teams how a 5th round pick would turn out, sure some scouts are better at picking one position over another, have a better ability picking lineman over DB's, and obviously some coaches are better at developing players then others, teams. all teams throw a ton of resources going over prospects, and there paid handsomely to do it, and all miss on prospects because it is such a leap from college ball to the NFL level, it's why the bust rate is so high, for every drafted player there are probably a dozen that wont be drafted, another doz that wont be picked up as a UDFA either, these are guesses, to lazy to go look it up, but it's probably a very conservative estimate.

It's why tanking for draft slotting ( specially prior to the last couple games) never made sense to me.

[TheSkeptic]

In summary, I likewise hope my position is clarified in that I believe it vitally important in critiquing a team's "draft" history to consider not just the players actually selected by the team but also players obtained when those picks are traded away.

That’s fair enough, in the context of the argument you’re now making.

The statement I was refuting made no such argument. The argument made was their offense was built primarily through “banger” drafts. The players cited did not include Williams or CMC nor mention of any picks not actually made by the team (traded away).

A subsequent post has since shifted the goalposts in that argument but I think it clear, in the context of the specific statement I was replying to, that the perception of draft prowess of the 49er organization was being significantly distorted.

One can analyze each draft for hits and misses and score them all they want, but if you have the best roster in the league by far..and most of your best players were acquired through the draft…you’ve been very successful and you’ve been drafting bangers, and to nit pick otherwise is just being a hater. Like no one outside of people wanting to defend Guteys drafting record denies that the niners have found gold in late rounds and this has contributed to their dominant roster. I stand by my claim that if you find a TE in the 5th and he’s AP level, it doesn’t matter what happens in 1-4. You had a successful draft. Especially when you have so few needs going into each draft like the niners.

The Packers have had very good luck with Olineman. Imagine finding a starting LT in the 7th round last year, yet that is apparently what the Packers have done. And in this year's draft, Brooks in the 6th and Valentine in the 7th appear to be big time hits.

[Half Empty]

Starting because they want to start him or starting because they have to start him?

[BF004]

I stand by my claim that if you find a TE in the 5th and he’s AP level, it doesn’t matter what happens in 1-4. You had a successful draft.

Lupe gunna come at you hard if he reads this. He thinks 2018 is a trash juice draft class, getting an all-pro CB, considerably more important position, and a quality #2 WR.

[bud fox]

I stand by my claim that if you find a TE in the 5th and he’s AP level, it doesn’t matter what happens in 1-4. You had a successful draft.

Lupe gunna come at you hard if he reads this. He thinks 2018 is a trash juice draft class, getting an all-pro CB, considerably more important position, and a quality #2 WR.

Is MVS the quality number 2? Man - he didnt even get a second contract. He has 7 receptions through 6 games this year.

Jaire has been great but he was also the 2nd cb taken in the draft and we needed cbs.

[BF004]

I stand by my claim that if you find a TE in the 5th and he’s AP level, it doesn’t matter what happens in 1-4. You had a successful draft.

Lupe gunna come at you hard if he reads this. He thinks 2018 is a trash juice draft class, getting an all-pro CB, considerably more important position, and a quality #2 WR.

Is MVS the quality number 2? Man - he didnt even get a second contract. He has 7 receptions through 6 games this year.

Jaire has been great but he was also the 2nd cb taken in the draft and we needed cbs.

Yeah, MVS based off contract and impact, non statistical impact. We all know how he stretches the field, Mahomes still 2nd in passing yards.

No idea why it matters Jaire was the 2nd CB taken and we needed a CB. Is that good or bad? Not sure your point there

My point is a decent starting WR and all-pro CB would have to be considered better than just a all-pro TE, right?

Just looking for consensus on what determines a good draft. Just one says the former is a bum sauce, another says the latter is a banger.

[lupedafiasco]

53 players on a roster and you want to tell me coming away with a single player regardless of accolades is a good draft?

It’s completely unsustainable as I’ve been saying for 3 years now and here we are with a really bad roster because there isn’t any veteran presence on it.

[TheSkeptic]

53 players on a roster and you want to tell me coming away with a single player regardless of accolades is a good draft?

It’s completely unsustainable as I’ve been saying for 3 years now and here we are with a really bad roster because there isn’t any veteran presence on it.

Next year they will all be veterans.

Maybe you are not old enough to remember the packers of the late 1950's. A bunch of rookies and second year players that someone like you would have cut and hire washed up 30+ year old veterans instead. All they needed was a coach and then Vince came to town and the run did not end until the late 1960's. This is a really GOOD roster. The jury, however, is still out on the HC and his subordinate coaches. From what I have read, asking Newman, JRJ and Jenkins with his knee to be pulling guards is not the mark of an offensive genius.

[Drj820]

That’s fair enough, in the context of the argument you’re now making.

The statement I was refuting made no such argument. The argument made was their offense was built primarily through “banger” drafts. The players cited did not include Williams or CMC nor mention of any picks not actually made by the team (traded away).

A subsequent post has since shifted the goalposts in that argument but I think it clear, in the context of the specific statement I was replying to, that the perception of draft prowess of the 49er organization was being significantly distorted.

One can analyze each draft for hits and misses and score them all they want, but if you have the best roster in the league by far..and most of your best players were acquired through the draft…you’ve been very successful and you’ve been drafting bangers, and to nit pick otherwise is just being a hater. Like no one outside of people wanting to defend Guteys drafting record denies that the niners have found gold in late rounds and this has contributed to their dominant roster. I stand by my claim that if you find a TE in the 5th and he’s AP level, it doesn’t matter what happens in 1-4. You had a successful draft. Especially when you have so few needs going into each draft like the niners.

The Packers have had very good luck with Olineman. Imagine finding a starting LT in the 7th round last year, yet that is apparently what the Packers have done. And in this year's draft, Brooks in the 6th and Valentine in the 7th appear to be big time hits.

If any of those guys become all pros and potential hall of famers, I will happily say it was a great draft.

[bud fox]

Lupe gunna come at you hard if he reads this. He thinks 2018 is a trash juice draft class, getting an all-pro CB, considerably more important position, and a quality #2 WR.

Is MVS the quality number 2? Man - he didnt even get a second contract. He has 7 receptions through 6 games this year.

Jaire has been great but he was also the 2nd cb taken in the draft and we needed cbs.

Yeah, MVS based off contract and impact, non statistical impact. We all know how he stretches the field, Mahomes still 2nd in passing yards.

No idea why it matters Jaire was the 2nd CB taken and we needed a CB. Is that good or bad? Not sure your point there

My point is a decent starting WR and all-pro CB would have to be considered better than just a all-pro TE, right?

Just looking for consensus on what determines a good draft. Just one says the former is a bum sauce, another says the latter is a banger.

All pro cb is better than a AP TE.

I guess Jaire is part of the draft class so has to be counted but my point was that if you need a CB and you pick the 2nd CB in the draft it isn't really a special pick.

I don't think MVS is a quality 2 receiver.

[Drj820]

53 players on a roster and you want to tell me coming away with a single player regardless of accolades is a good draft?

It’s completely unsustainable as I’ve been saying for 3 years now and here we are with a really bad roster because there isn’t any veteran presence on it.

Really depends on what the roster already looks like. If the roster is loaded and you have a specific need of TE and you draft one in the 5th and he becomes and all pro, then yes..mission accomplished.

If you are a gm on the way out like Trent balke or say, ted Thompson, and you leave the next GM with a George kittle or say Aaron Jones in the 5th, Kenny Clark, or David balhtiary..they ya, you did a very good deed for the next man.

Now, if you are totally rebuilding and need tons of average players because you have no good players, then your draft would have different goals.

But anytime you walk away from a draft with a top player at a position in the whole league, then you did fine.

[Drj820]

There is a big difference between finding a great player in the 1st and finding a great player in the 5th.

Drafting Aaron Jones in the 5th for Thompson is awesome and something no hater can take away.

Same for kittle in the 5th.

Hitting a HR that late is special work

MVS is no where near the type of player I am speaking of lol