Papa's 3 Tiers of NFL QB

[Papa John]

I don't like to complicate things. Several notable players and coaches have gone on record saying that the margin of talent in this league is actually pretty small. In my mind, there are 3 tiers of NFL QB's.

First Tier
These guys are typically the future Hall of Famers and in some cases the fringe Hall of Famers. QB's in this tier have the talent and competence to be able to make an average or even a below average roster contend for the playoffs. Below average rosters do not win championships regardless of QB.

Current starting QB's in this tier:

Patrick Mahomes
Joe Burrow
Josh Allen

Second Tier
These are QB's who are good enough to contend for a Super Bowl if they are surrounded by high-caliber talent. They will not ruin your team's chances but they also aren't capable of carrying a below average team and making them competitive on their own. Most NFL starting QB's will fall into this tier.

Trevor Lawrence
Aaron Rodgers
Lamar Jackson
Justin Herbert
Matthew Stafford
Jalen Hurts
Jared Goff
Tua Tagovailoa
Dak Prescott
CJ Stroud
Brock Purdy
Kirk Cousins
Jimmy Garropolo
Russell Wilson
DeShaun Watson
Daniel Jones
Jameis Winston
Jordan Love
Bryce Young
Geno Smith

Third Tier
The guys who just don't have it. They make too many mistakes and thus could not be relied upon to lead any team to a championship. Whether it is because of inferior physical ability or some sort of mental issue, these guys don't get it done.

Mac Jones
Sam Howell
Gardner Minshew
Baker Mayfield
Kenny Pickett
Desmond Ridder


Thoughts? Do you disagree with there being 3 tiers? If not, who is in the wrong tier? I tried to list the names in order of how I see their ability.

[lupedafiasco]

If tier two is truly that big I don’t think QB would be as sought after as it is.

To me you have tier one rightish. I would personally put Herbert in there. I think he’s been significantly screwed by a dog &%$@ coach.

Tier two to me should be in no order Jackson, Hurts, Tua, Stroud, Rodgers, Goff, and Dak.

Then there’s a pretty large group of tier three players and then you have a small number of a tier four that should be guys we clearly know can’t play.

[GJPackerBacker]

I don't like to complicate things. Several notable players and coaches have gone on record saying that the margin of talent in this league is actually pretty small. In my mind, there are 3 tiers of NFL QB's.

First Tier
Current starting QB's in this tier:

Patrick Mahomes
Joe Burrow
Josh Allen

Second Tier
Trevor Lawrence
Aaron Rodgers
Lamar Jackson
Justin Herbert
Matthew Stafford
Jalen Hurts
Jared Goff
Tua Tagovailoa
Dak Prescott
CJ Stroud
Brock Purdy
Kirk Cousins
Jimmy Garropolo
Russell Wilson
DeShaun Watson
Daniel Jones
Jameis Winston
Jordan Love
Bryce Young
Geno Smith

Third Tier
Mac Jones
Sam Howell
Gardner Minshew
Baker Mayfield
Kenny Pickett
Desmond Ridder

Just for grins, I have to ask, why was Justin Fields left off the list?
Different sub tier?
Recent injury?

Reasonable list here. I think one important evaluation factor must be consistency of performance.

Thanks for your efforts.

[Papa John]

If tier two is truly that big I don’t think QB would be as sought after as it is.

To me you have tier one rightish. I would personally put Herbert in there. I think he’s been significantly screwed by a dog &%$@ coach.

Tier two to me should be in no order Jackson, Hurts, Tua, Stroud, Rodgers, Goff, and Dak.

Then there’s a pretty large group of tier three players and then you have a small number of a tier four that should be guys we clearly know can’t play.

Fair enough. I don't hate this line of thinking. Curious- which tier would you put Trevor Lawrence in?

[Papa John]

Just for grins, I have to ask, why was Justin Fields left off the list?
Different sub tier?
Recent injury?

Reasonable list here. I think one important evaluation factor must be consistency of performance.

Thanks for your efforts.

I completely forgot about Fields. Guess I also could have included Derek Carr. From what I have seen of Fields he is low end 2nd tier. Carr is a little better but still lowish second tier.

[lupedafiasco]

If tier two is truly that big I don’t think QB would be as sought after as it is.

To me you have tier one rightish. I would personally put Herbert in there. I think he’s been significantly screwed by a dog &%$@ coach.

Tier two to me should be in no order Jackson, Hurts, Tua, Stroud, Rodgers, Goff, and Dak.

Then there’s a pretty large group of tier three players and then you have a small number of a tier four that should be guys we clearly know can’t play.

Fair enough. I don't hate this line of thinking. Curious- which tier would you put Trevor Lawrence in?

Lawrence would be in my third tier. If he was my QB I wouldn’t resign him and to me that’s where all the 3rd tier guys go. The teams that get stuck in the Ryan Tannenhill, Andy Dalton, Daniel Jones traps set themselves so far back.

[Trudge]

I think you have some more categories. Make it 5-6 quarterbacks just cause there are so much between Hurts and Daniel Jones.

[APB]

I think you have some more categories. Make it 5-6 quarterbacks just cause there are so much between Hurts and Daniel Jones.

Yeah, I agree. Three tiers not nearly enough. I’m having a hard time placing Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert in the same tier as Jimmy Garropolo and Daniel Jones.

[Trudge]

I don't like to complicate things. Several notable players and coaches have gone on record saying that the margin of talent in this league is actually pretty small. In my mind, there are 3 tiers of NFL QB's.

First Tier
These guys are typically the future Hall of Famers and in some cases the fringe Hall of Famers. QB's in this tier have the talent and competence to be able to make an average or even a below average roster contend for the playoffs. Below average rosters do not win championships regardless of QB.

Current starting QB's in this tier:

Patrick Mahomes
Joe Burrow
Josh Allen

Second Tier
These are QB's who are good enough to contend for a Super Bowl if they are surrounded by high-caliber talent. They will not ruin your team's chances but they also aren't capable of carrying a below average team and making them competitive on their own. Most NFL starting QB's will fall into this tier.

Trevor Lawrence
Aaron Rodgers
Lamar Jackson
Justin Herbert
Matthew Stafford
Jalen Hurts
Jared Goff
Tua Tagovailoa
Dak Prescott
CJ Stroud
Brock Purdy
Kirk Cousins
Jimmy Garropolo
Russell Wilson
DeShaun Watson
Daniel Jones
Jameis Winston
Jordan Love
Bryce Young
Geno Smith

Third Tier
The guys who just don't have it. They make too many mistakes and thus could not be relied upon to lead any team to a championship. Whether it is because of inferior physical ability or some sort of mental issue, these guys don't get it done.

Mac Jones
Sam Howell
Gardner Minshew
Baker Mayfield
Kenny Pickett
Desmond Ridderwa


Thoughts? Do you disagree with there being 3 tiers? If not, who is in the wrong tier? I tried to list the names in order of how I see their ability.

Let's try this out.

Current starting QB's in this tier:

Patrick Mahomes
Joe Burrow
Josh Allen

Nothing wrong with that.

Trevor Lawrence
Aaron Rodgers
Lamar Jackson
Justin Herbert
Matthew Stafford
Jalen Hurts
Jared Goff
Tua Tagovailoa
Dak Prescott
CJ Stroud
Brock Purdy
Kirk Cousins
Jimmy Garropolo
Russell Wilson
DeShaun Watson
Daniel Jones
Jameis Winston
Jordan Love
Bryce Young
Geno Smith

Here's the problem...

Tier 2
Trevor Lawrence
Lamar Jackson
Justin Herbert
Jalen Hurts
Jared Goff
Tua Tagovailoa
Russell Wilson

Tier 3
Aaron Rodgers
Kirk Cousins
Dak Prescott
Matt Stafford

Tier 4
CJ Stroud
Brock Purdy
Jordan Love
Bryce Young

Teir 5
Geno Smith
DeShaun Watson
Daniel Jones
Jameis Winston
Jimmy Garropolo

Teir 6

Mac Jones
Sam Howell
Gardner Minshew
Baker Mayfield
Kenny Pickett
Desmond Ridder

Does that look a bit better?

[texas]

I agree, Justin Herbert just looks good, but every time I watch him, his throws seem pretty indistinguishable from those of Jordan Love. He looks way more decisive and the offense seems to move a lot better, but idk I just see several throws with poor accuracy whenever I happen to watch him. Eye test checks out in a major way for him though, but idk why.

[Madcity_matt]

Trudge I'm not going to quote that but I think that's about right. Really just breaking apart the middle tier into sub tiers, but I'd generally agree. Bryce Young might be a tier high, as well as Jameis but overall agree.

[Papa John]

I think you have some more categories. Make it 5-6 quarterbacks just cause there are so much between Hurts and Daniel Jones.

Yeah, I agree. Three tiers not nearly enough. I’m having a hard time placing Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert in the same tier as Jimmy Garropolo and Daniel Jones.

My reasoning behind tier 2 is that I think all of those guys are going to require roughly the same amount of supporting talent in order to compete for a championship. Right now in the NFL, I just don't think that the level of talent at the QB position is very high, overall. I think Lamar Jackson is overrated and for some odd reason, nobody is allowed to blame Justin Herbert for anything that goes wrong with his team, ever. Basically, my criteria for tier 2 is- can this guy be a Super Bowl winning QB? Because that's what it's all about at the end of the day anyway.

[Pugger]

I don't like to complicate things. Several notable players and coaches have gone on record saying that the margin of talent in this league is actually pretty small. In my mind, there are 3 tiers of NFL QB's.

First Tier
These guys are typically the future Hall of Famers and in some cases the fringe Hall of Famers. QB's in this tier have the talent and competence to be able to make an average or even a below average roster contend for the playoffs. Below average rosters do not win championships regardless of QB.

Current starting QB's in this tier:

Patrick Mahomes
Joe Burrow
Josh Allen

Second Tier
These are QB's who are good enough to contend for a Super Bowl if they are surrounded by high-caliber talent. They will not ruin your team's chances but they also aren't capable of carrying a below average team and making them competitive on their own. Most NFL starting QB's will fall into this tier.

Trevor Lawrence
Aaron Rodgers
Lamar Jackson
Justin Herbert
Matthew Stafford
Jalen Hurts
Jared Goff
Tua Tagovailoa
Dak Prescott
CJ Stroud
Brock Purdy
Kirk Cousins
Jimmy Garropolo
Russell Wilson
DeShaun Watson
Daniel Jones
Jameis Winston
Jordan Love
Bryce Young
Geno Smith

Third Tier
The guys who just don't have it. They make too many mistakes and thus could not be relied upon to lead any team to a championship. Whether it is because of inferior physical ability or some sort of mental issue, these guys don't get it done.

Mac Jones
Sam Howell
Gardner Minshew
Baker Mayfield
Kenny Pickett
Desmond Ridderwa


Thoughts? Do you disagree with there being 3 tiers? If not, who is in the wrong tier? I tried to list the names in order of how I see their ability.

Let's try this out.

Current starting QB's in this tier:

Patrick Mahomes
Joe Burrow
Josh Allen

Nothing wrong with that.

Trevor Lawrence
Aaron Rodgers
Lamar Jackson
Justin Herbert
Matthew Stafford
Jalen Hurts
Jared Goff
Tua Tagovailoa
Dak Prescott
CJ Stroud
Brock Purdy
Kirk Cousins
Jimmy Garropolo
Russell Wilson
DeShaun Watson
Daniel Jones
Jameis Winston
Jordan Love
Bryce Young
Geno Smith

Here's the problem...

Tier 2
Trevor Lawrence
Lamar Jackson
Justin Herbert
Jalen Hurts
Jared Goff
Tua Tagovailoa
Russell Wilson

Tier 3
Aaron Rodgers
Kirk Cousins
Dak Prescott
Matt Stafford

Tier 4
CJ Stroud
Brock Purdy
Jordan Love
Bryce Young

Teir 5
Geno Smith
DeShaun Watson
Daniel Jones
Jameis Winston
Jimmy Garropolo

Teir 6

Mac Jones
Sam Howell
Gardner Minshew
Baker Mayfield
Kenny Pickett
Desmond Ridder

Does that look a bit better?

For starters Stroud is a hell of lot better than Love.

[Pugger]

I agree, Justin Herbert just looks good, but every time I watch him, his throws seem pretty indistinguishable from those of Jordan Love. He looks way more decisive and the offense seems to move a lot better, but idk I just see several throws with poor accuracy whenever I happen to watch him. Eye test checks out in a major way for him though, but idk why.

Herbert has a lot more NFL starts under his belt than Love does right now and that IMO why he looks better.

[Trudge]

Love, Stroud and Young all have roughly the same amount of starts. What would you give Stroud over Love?

[williewasgreat]

Love, Stroud and Young all have roughly the same amount of starts. What would you give Stroud over Love?

Stroud hasn't proven anything yet either, other than he shows poise. There have been a number of QBs who have looked good in their rookie years only to flounder given time.

[MY_TAKE]

First Tier
These guys are typically the future Hall of Famers and in some cases the fringe Hall of Famers. QB's in this tier have the talent and competence to be able to make an average or even a below average roster contend for the playoffs. Below average rosters do not win championships regardless of QB.

Current starting QB's in this tier:

Patrick Mahomes
Joe Burrow
Josh Allen

I did a little statistical research for fun. I used QBR as the main stat using ESPN data back to 2020 season. Yes, I know stats are not everything but they certainly can help prove a point. Most of the QBS you expect to be in the top 5 are there. Guys like Mahomes, Josh Allen and such.

Going on that data Burrow is super overrated and he arguably has kickass recievers. The numbers say he doesn't belong in that tier.

Incidentally, the QBR leader in 2020, and 2021 was Aaron Rodgers. Them two years the QB's second in QBR was Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady.

This years top 6
RK
NAME
1

Brock Purdy
SF
2

Dak Prescott
DAL
3

Justin Herbert
LAC
4

Josh Allen
BUF
5

Patrick Mahomes
KC
6

Jalen Hurts
PHI
Jordon Love this year is 18th in QBR (currently), but moving up. Burrow is 17th and yes I know he has been injured abit, but he sucked bad in a few games.
Anyway just thought I would weigh in on this. Night shifts can get boring now and then.

I did forget to mention that A. Rodgers QBR fell of dramatically 2022 and he finished 24th in QBR.

[Yoop]

the very best QB's will struggle, or flourish depending on supporting cast, we saw what happens when a QB has very inexperienced receivers or OL blocking issues, Rodger fall last year was the same as what Love dealt with most of this season.

so many variables involved, strength of schedule, talent, poor matchups against some teams because of injury's, coaching, the best QB's can obviously over come much of this as long as they still have a key receiver or two, lesser QB's can't even with that help.

Shanahan, Lafleur, McVay etc. are said to have QB friendly passing, great at scheming receivers open, I think this last game highlighted that with Love, also think Purdy benefits from that, and why he tops your list, anyway imho it's not so much just the QB's that make there selves house hold names or garner the best stats, Mahomes numbers aren't down imo because of his declining play, rather the decline of his receiver room.

thanks for your work, very interesting

[Papa John]

Going on that data Burrow is super overrated and he arguably has kickass recievers. The numbers say he doesn't belong in that tier.

That makes sense to me. Burrow has never been a guy I would expect to consistently show up big on the stat sheet. But IMO his ability to rise to the occasion during clutch situations makes him top tier. He seems Eli-esque in that regard.

[MY_TAKE]

Going on that data Burrow is super overrated and he arguably has kickass recievers. The numbers say he doesn't belong in that tier.

That makes sense to me. Burrow has never been a guy I would expect to consistently show up big on the stat sheet. But IMO his ability to rise to the occasion during clutch situations makes him top tier. He seems Eli-esque in that regard.

He sure has won big games and went deep into the playoffs/superbowl.! He gets bumped up in peoples minds for that fact alone I would imagine.