2020 Packer Offense: Predictions

[YoHoChecko]

I mean we have enjoyed basically a top 5 (for sure top 10) offensive line every year basically for the last what... 13 years?

We can get by with a not-so stellar offensive line if the ball comes out in a normal 3 seconds or less and MLF's system of complexity is actually successful.

But I agree that Oline could be a tough thing for us. We have just taken that group for granted so long because we have been able to.

Yeah, I know a 4th round pick is, ya know, just a 4th round pick or whatever....

But the issue I had with the Love pick was losing that 4th rounder to move up more so than the decision to take Love... had we spent that 4th on, say, Jack Driscoll from Auburn or maaaybe Colton McKivitz, though I wasn't high on him; I'd feel a lot better about the OT situation right now... Turner and Wagner competing for the starting spot, but a promising rookie for depth and development rather than... Alex Light. I'd even feel better if Runyan was practicing at RT instead of exclusively at LG.

I think OT is a reasonable concern--especially if injury or COVID strike the position at all. But yeah, we've been spoiled and you can make it work with some average players in there, but not the way we're used to.

[Drj820]

I know somebody available that would make me feel better about the position.

[BSA]

Article from ACME on Packers OL

For several seasons, the Green Bay Packers’ offensive line has been steady in its statistical running game measures, according to Football Outsiders (FO). The unit’s adjusted line yards metric, in particular, has ranked in the top seven of the NFL for at least the past three seasons. But in 2019, the line showed a notable increase in its pass protection, specifically in terms of sacks and pressures.

Overall, the Packers allowed significantly fewer sacks last season, cutting down their total from 53 to 36 from 2018 to 2019.

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/by-t ... y-in-2019?
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[Pckfn23]

We have had talks on this in the past. Has been about how the amount of sacks in a given year are just as much about the QB/offensive philosophy, as they are about the pass blockers. That plays out when you look at sack totals for the last 10 seasons.

2019 - 36
2018 - 53
2017 - 51
2016 - 35
2015 - 47
2014 - 30
2013 - 45
2012 - 51
2011 - 41
2010 - 38

[BSA]

from PackersWire on Jamaal Williams pass catching improvements

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2020/0 ... g-threat/

“That’s been the biggest thing he’s improved,” Sirmans said Wednesday. “Jamaal did a great job throughout the offseason improving his overall quickness and ability as a receiver. Those things have shown up big time so far in camp.”

At exit meetings following the Packers’ loss to the San Francisco 49ers last January, Sirmans told Williams – who caught a career-high 39 passes in 2019 – that he wanted him to become quicker and more explosive as a receiver.

“That’s one of the focal points that we talked about last year at the end of the season, an area where I wanted to see him was just his overall quickness and agility against man coverage. He’s really worked hard in the offseason,” Sirmans said.

[YoHoChecko]

At exit meetings following the Packers’ loss to the San Francisco 49ers last January, Sirmans told Williams – who caught a career-high 39 passes in 2019 – that he wanted him to become quicker and more explosive as a receiver.

I wouldn't mind him becoming quicker and more explosive as a runner, either

[Drj820]

from PackersWire on Jamaal Williams pass catching improvements

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2020/0 ... g-threat/

“That’s been the biggest thing he’s improved,” Sirmans said Wednesday. “Jamaal did a great job throughout the offseason improving his overall quickness and ability as a receiver. Those things have shown up big time so far in camp.”

At exit meetings following the Packers’ loss to the San Francisco 49ers last January, Sirmans told Williams – who caught a career-high 39 passes in 2019 – that he wanted him to become quicker and more explosive as a receiver.

“That’s one of the focal points that we talked about last year at the end of the season, an area where I wanted to see him was just his overall quickness and agility against man coverage. He’s really worked hard in the offseason,” Sirmans said.

love to hear this. He was looking great in the offseason videos i saw.

[BF004]

If Jones and Williams are both effective as WR's, to the point of splitting them out, I see no reason why we can't have multiple RB's on the field on a few plays. I would probably even trust Williams with a limited blocking responsibilities for Dillon or Jones.


Would be a tough first step for the LB's with Dillon in the backfield and Aaron Jones coming in a jet sweep motion.

[YoHoChecko]

If Jones and Williams are both effective as WR's, to the point of splitting them out, I see no reason why we can't have multiple RB's on the field on a few plays. I would probably even trust Williams with a limited blocking responsibilities for Dillon or Jones.


Would be a tough first step for the LB's with Dillon in the backfield and Aaron Jones coming in a jet sweep motion.

I mean, we already had 2 RBs on the field on 15+% of their snaps and I'm sure not all of those were Vitale FB snaps.

The Packers also were one of the only teams to run 3 RB plays, and they were 3 for 3 on those plays in terms of scoring TDs in the red zone. One of those plays was an empty backfield spread with 3-RB personnel that resulted in Rodgers' miracle throw to Williams against the Chiefs (though that was actually a terrible play by Rodgers who had Jones WIDE open in the end zone right in front of him a split second after the snap... and I actually still believe that it was a bad throw intended for Graham not a perfect throw intended to Jamal Williams in the back corner, but bygones, I guess).

[BSA]

CheesheadTV with some great work here. Cut ups and review on EQ route running from 2018

https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/equanimeo ... unning-504

"We just looked at 14 plays showing EQ's route-running ability. Of the 14 plays, he was targeted 5 times, catching all 5 for 140 yards. Even on the plays he wasn't targeted, he was consistently creating space on a variety of routes, lined up in different spots. We saw him beat defenders off the line, in small spaces close to the line of scrimmage and down the field."
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EQ !

[YoHoChecko]

CheesheadTV with some great work here. Cut ups and review on EQ route running from 2018

https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/equanimeo ... unning-504

"We just looked at 14 plays showing EQ's route-running ability. Of the 14 plays, he was targeted 5 times, catching all 5 for 140 yards. Even on the plays he wasn't targeted, he was consistently creating space on a variety of routes, lined up in different spots. We saw him beat defenders off the line, in small spaces close to the line of scrimmage and down the field."
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EQ !

I don't know if this is the right place for this, but the WR coach today was talking about MVS (or maybe it was Hackett, now that I think about it).

The gist of it was the details were wrong; that even when he "won his rep" and beat his man, he was making the cut at 18 yards that should be at 22, things like that. So that if you watched the film, you'd see him create space and win--but if you k new the play, you'd realize that he wasn't quite in the right place and had messed up the timing of the play and the rep with the QB.

I could imagine, given the way Rodgers grouped the young WRs together when he gave those lectures the year before last, it wouldn't surprise me if some of that happened with EQ as well.

If one of them pops, it'd be big. If both of them turn out to be progressing and worthwhile, it'd be huge. I'm rooting for EQ because he's been a personal fave for a while, but I'll take either guy.

[BSA]

The gist of it was the details were wrong; that even when he "won his rep" and beat his man, he was making the cut at 18 yards that should be at 22, things like that. So that if you watched the film, you'd see him create space and win--but if you k new the play, you'd realize that he wasn't quite in the right place and had messed up the timing of the play and the rep with the QB.

I could imagine, given the way Rodgers grouped the young WRs together when he gave those lectures the year before last,
it wouldn't surprise me if some of that happened with EQ as well.

It did. And it was an issue. There was a reported blow up at practice one day .The previous WR coach was David Raih - and the WRs complained that what he taught was different than what AR preferred, hence AR's lectures about details. Things turned south and during 2018, the WRs just ignored Coach Raih and went to Davante for tutelage on the finer points of playing WR in GB. Raih then went to AZ with Kingsbury and MLF tabbed Vrable for WR coach in GB

[BSA]

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Reporters aren't allowed to say anything but I think the team photographer captured the starting OL at Lambeau the other day
I'd guess that means Turner backs up the right side and Lucas Patrick covers OC and LG. Who's LT2 ?
(teams will now have 8 OL active on Sunday)

[go pak go]

There are a lot of reports including from Andy Herman who said he would ultimately be surprised if Wagner starts and that Turner at least during his time at camp looked better at RT. Now. Wagner has two weeks to knock the rust off from his injury.

But I think your Active 8 Olinemen are the following:

1. Bak
2. Jenkins
3. Linsley
4. Taylor
5. Wagner
6. Backup Right Side = Turner
7. Backup Center = Patrick
8. Backup LG = Runyan/Patrick

And Elgton Jenkins takes the LT spot if necessary during a game. Likely even long term because we wouldn't have any other choice.

I think we keep 9 Olinemen. I think we try and keep a guy like Yosh or Light on Psquad as well.

There are also rumors that maybe the Packers would shop Taylor which I think the stupidest thing I have heard. The dude is way more valuable on the Packers.

[lupedafiasco]

I just can’t imagine Turner being a starting tackle. He couldn’t handle pass rushers at guard. How is he going to handle some of the leagues best rushers from the edge.

[NCF]

I just can’t imagine Turner being a starting tackle. He couldn’t handle pass rushers at guard. How is he going to handle some of the leagues best rushers from the edge.

Get them on their heels with the running game. Like, if the PA game is clicking, I could see him thriving. But, if teams are able to shut down our run and we have to go to more of a drop back style offense, yeah, he's toast.

[NCF]

There are also rumors that maybe the Packers would shop Taylor which I think the stupidest thing I have heard. The dude is way more valuable on the Packers.

That isn't even a valid rumor, it is Nagler thinking out loud and, I agree, it would be absolutely stupid and in the video you linked, Andy Herman also said as much.

[BSA]

well- done article on shanahans use of 21 personnel in both run and pass game. Offers some hints about the Packers 2020 offense

https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2020 ... personnel/

"...If the goal of 21 personnel is to get the defense into a base personnel package and then throw against it, it calls into question the wisdom of then running the football against the base defensive unit. But what Shanahan and the 49ers are able to do is use that second running back – Juszczyk in most cases – to create an additional gap that the defense must account for."
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[BSA]

Here's an article that talks about all of the pre-snap motion...the latest rage in the NFL. Its been around for a long time, but OCs are figuring out new ways to create an advantage in both the pass game and the run game. I put this in here because MLF has certainly embraced it in his offense and we'll probably see even more of it in 2020

https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2020 ... -the-snap/

"When talking about the specific schematic advantages of pre-snap motion, most people will point to the ability of the quarterback to read man versus zone coverage based on the motion defender. If the defender follows the motion receiver through the formation, it’s generally man. If the defender stays put and hands the responsibility through the formation, it’s generally zone.

But defenses are starting to show dummy man/zone looks, and as Orlovsky told me, that’s not the ultimate advantage for quarterbacks —
or, for that matter, anybody on the offensive side of the ball.

“Yeah, I think we’re all past man vs. zone,” he told me. “We’re kind of beyond that.
The big thing was creating leverage on certain players. That’s a big deal. You could get certain guys – when you line up in your formation, and you’re moving your personnel, you can get certain [defenders] to move where you want them. When you use motion, and you kind of know how your opponent will respond, you will call certain plays to be run at certain guys.

“We’re seeing more coaches understand that… motion doesn’t have to be married to man/zone. It could be to try and get your run game to be run at certain people. Or, to try and get your passing game directed at certain people, whether it’s man or zone. Because if that nickel defender doesn’t kick over to trips, you can have your slot receiver working on a safety. So now, just off motion, even if it’s against a zone defense, you have really created an advantage. That safety really wants to play the run more than he wants to play the pass. So, it’s really about trying to create advantages, whether it’s via leverage, or via fits in the run game. I think we’ve seen great growth on that in the NFL.”

Pre-snap motion also creates specific advantages in the run game — it’s a big reason the Ravens had the NFL’s most schematically evil rushing attack in the NFL last season."
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[YoHoChecko]

I am tracking my predictions as compared to full-season projections throughout the season and I'll start to post updates about it here, but through two games, our offense is SO insane that the full-season projections look totally broken. In fact, if you project it out as if they've already played 3 games, instead of 2, it's closer to my predictions than the real thing--especially the rushing game. So I'll make this a bye week project to start.

As an example, we're "on pace" to break the single season yardage record by more than 600 yards.