2023 Packers Defense Expectations?

[Yoop]

the defense has been bad for so long it's hard to blame any one thing, this is a interesting read in that, there are solutions, but ya need the players that can make it happen, a coach willing to make adjustments, and health of the star players

Bleacher report wont allow dragging the link, so I brought the whole article, not so much to defend Capers, well sorta, but mostly to high lite that stopping the run and having front 7 dominance seems just as important and even more so now than 8 years ago when this was written.

Green Bay Packers Defense Evolving Under Defensive Coordinator Dom Capers
MICHELLE BRUTONX.com Logo
OCTOBER 8, 2015

Green Bay Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers talks with Clay Matthews, left, and Sam Barrington during NFL football training camp, Saturday, Aug. 1 , 2015, in Green Bay, Wis. (AP Photo/Mike Roemer)
Mike Roemer/Associated Press
In seven seasons as defensive coordinator of the Green Bay Packers, longtime NFL coach Dom Capers has become known for his 3-4 zone-blitz scheme.

He's also been on the receiving end of a good amount of frustration and ire by Packers fans when the team's defense doesn't perform to expectations.

In 2015, however, there's a lot less to be frustrated about. The Packers defense looks different this season, and much of the time, it doesn't even play in base 3-4. Though he's become known for one scheme, Capers, in his 30th year of coaching in the NFL, is innovating.

Heading into Week 5, Green Bay is No. 9 in the league in total defense, allowing an average of 312 yards per game.

In scoring defense, it ranks even higher—No. 3, having allowed an average of just 17.8 points per game through four weeks.

At its core, a good defense comes down to two parts: scheme and execution.

When the Packers defense has struggled in recent seasons, some have pointed the finger to Capers' scheme. Others have insisted that general manger Ted Thompson either wasn't drafting the right players for it or that those players weren't measuring up to expectations.

This season, however, those two elements seem to have clicked, and Capers himself has played a big role in that.

In the offseason, Capers began the process of simplifying the team's playbook with the aim of reducing mistakes as well as making its play more uptempo. The aim was to at once slow things down for the players—so that they weren't spending time thinking rather than executing—as well as speed up the level of play on the field.

Capers summed up the impetus behind the changes to Michael Cohen of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

When these teams are going to go, go, go and they're trying to run as many plays as possible, you have to adapt and adjust. If it's a fast-break offense, you've got to be a fast-break defense. What you don't want is guys sitting there and waiting around and confusion, and they're at the line of scrimmage coming at you.

Now, according to Capers, six- or seven-word plays have been reduced to one or two words, with a hand signal to match, per Cohen.

Apparently the change in the system was at least partially motivated by feedback from the players. Mental mistakes have been an unfortunate fixture in the landscape of Green Bay's defense for the past few seasons.

In terms of missed tackles, cornerback Sam Shields ranked 12th in them in 2014, with 11 on the season, per Pro Football Focus. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix was 15th among safeties, with 15. Julius Peppers' 10 missed tackles on the season put him at fourth among outside linebackers.

Mental errors and penalties were also an issue during the season. Now it sounds like those mistakes at least partly stemmed from complicated play calls, as cornerback Casey Hayward told Cohen:

We had a long call one time and we were like, 'Yo, what was that again?' They took a couple of those calls out, so there's less thinking. That's some of the things we talk about in our exit interviews. The coaches, they listen to those things. And we've been able to do a good job this year and have a lot less mental errors than what we normally have.

The improvement this season has been remarkable. In its Week 4 shutdown of the San Francisco 49ers, the defense had only five missed tackles between every player, per Pro Football Focus.

It also had a whopping seven sacks, following up on a six-sack game against Kansas City the previous week. Heading into Week 5, the Packers are now tied with their opponent in that upcoming matchup, the St. Louis Rams, at second in the league in sacks, with 17.

Per ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky, those 13 sacks tie for "their most in a two-game span since sacks became an official stat in 1982; and it's the first time they have ever had at least six sacks in consecutive games."


Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press
It's a beautiful thing when a defense improves in one area, and that, in turn, elevates the play of the other areas, as well. This season, Capers feels that the improvement in the run defense has also boosted the pass rush, per Demovsky:

If you can play the run well, then you get in more predictable situations. I’ve always felt that if we can get people in predictable situations that we can have some disruption of the quarterback because we have some guys who can rush the passer. Yesterday we did it with four-man, five-man and six-man [rushes].

Though the first game of the season against the Chicago Bears, in which the Packers allowed 189 yards on the ground, was inauspicious for the run defense, it has played at a level approaching elite over the following three weeks.

In that span, the unit has allowed just 90.3 rushing yards per game.

And then, to continue the cycle of improvement, a strong pass rush can also help the secondary. Putting constant pressure on an opposing quarterback can give defensive backs the time they need to get a step on an opposing receiver or get into position to make an interception when a quarterback is forced into a bad throw.

This year's defense knows something about that. The Packers have four interceptions on the season through four games, which is tied for the ninth-most in the league.


On a more micro level from play-call changes, some personnel decisions have had a positive effect on the unit as a whole.

Capers and head coach Mike McCarthy's decision to use Clay Matthews as an inside linebacker has opened opportunities for other edge-rushers on those plays where Matthews is inside, and they have flourished as a result. Capers discussed this, per Demovksy:

We've been trying to rotate them because we have confidence in all those guys out there and they've all produced. The more you play, the more opportunities you get, the better you get. Here the last couple games we've been able to work Clay a little bit out there like we planned on early on before we had the injuries. We like that combination.

The Packers' 17 sacks are spread out between eight players: Peppers (3.5), Matthews (3), Nick Perry (3), Mike Daniels (2.5), Jayrone Elliott (2.0), Mike Neal (1.5), Joe Thomas (1.0) and B.J. Raji (.5).


Matt Ludtke/Associated Press
One of the best parts about the systemic changes and the success of the 2015 defense is that players who were approaching "bust" territory, such as 2012 first-round selection Nick Perry, are redeeming themselves.

Green Bay's defense has also been helped this year in another surprising way: the Packers' more methodical offense. The Packers are averaging 32 minutes, 52 seconds in time of possession this season, per TeamRankings.com, and in Week 4 against the 49ers it was as high as 36:34. In 2014, it was 30:33.

When the offense works down the field quickly, either by scoring through quick strikes or going three-and-out, it brings the defense back onto the field more frequently—with less rest. With an offense that can take time off the clock, the defense can take the field prepared and without being exhausted.

In mid-June, around the time of Packers OTAs—when, as we now know, Capers was beginning to implement all these changes—Capers told Demovsky about one of the keys to finding continued success, and work, in the ever-changing NFL.

"I think you have to constantly challenge yourself," Capers said. "It's a changing league. I can't tell you how much it's changed in the last 30 years."

So for those who have been frustrated by the product Capers' units have put on the field in recent seasons, realize that he has been, too. And in his seventh year with the Packers, after listening to feedback from his players, he made some macro-level changes.

And they're paying off big time.

[APB]

Joe Barry called a good game against Minny but, let’s be honest, it wasn’t all Joe Barry and the Packer defense…

[APB]

I’m sure game script played a role in the call but this crap drives me crazy no matter what the scoreboard says.

[texas]

This year was supposed to be a preparation year for a SB run next season.

lol according to who

[Labrev]

Starting Hall was a critical error by McConnell. Mullens was bad last night but he came in having to erase a big deficit so he could never really get into a groove. If he starts from the beginning, I think this game is a lot closer than it was. Mullens isn't a starter in this league but he has enough ability to exploit a Barry defense, and did so a few times in the half he played.

I really wonder if McConnell made this decision because of how badly Barry's defenses were getting killed by JAG QBs and thought this was a good opportunity to start the high-upside young QB. But there's a floor for how bad a QB can be and still succeed, even against a Joe Barry defense. All jokes aside, no, not literally anyone can play QB against and succeed; ask Brett Rypien.

[MY_TAKE]

Starting Hall was a critical error by McConnell.

Completely agree. That to me is one of the dumbest moves yet by a head coach this year.

On another note, can someone please go get Chicago Bear practice video this week and email it to Barry?

[lupedafiasco]

I am of the thinking that if you aren’t winning a SB find out what you have in a young guy. The Vikings know Dobbs and Mullins isn’t the guy and Cousins is likely done. See if Hall is a gamer or not.

[MY_TAKE]

I am of the thinking that if you aren’t winning a SB find out what you have in a young guy. The Vikings know Dobbs and Mullins isn’t the guy and Cousins is likely done. See if Hall is a gamer or not.

I think you play to win the game if your still in the hunt, whether your a long shot or not. Besides, he was a deer in headlights every time I saw him take a snap this year. That was a give away to me. Just my opinion. He also threw the worst pass I have seen all year. The kids confidence may never recover now. But its the vikings, so I couldn't care less about their future prospects not looking good.

[LombardiTime]

I don't know how, or why, the D started playing aggressively last week in MInnesota and carried that over today against the Bears.

However, giving up just 19 points in those two games by taking the action to the opposition is something I thought could be accomplished this season given the talent on the defense.

Again, I have no idea why the change has occurred, but I certainly hope it continues next week and into the 2024 season no matter who the DC is.

[Pckfn23]

That we played man with Walker as a spy as much as we did, dumbfounded me. I honestly didn't think Barry would do it. I believe that was the main reason we held them to 9 points. It confused Fields into holding the ball and Walker as the spy limited his scrambling. It was great!

[Yoop]

I love man under zone coverage, which is what I think I saw mostly last night, as long as the man is tight enough till the pass rush forces the QB to avoid the pressure, and if 4 rushers isn't enough, then bring more, this to me is why we see improvement from the defense.

to me this has to continue.

[wallyuwl]

Some fan

[Scott4Pack]

I don't know how, or why, the D started playing aggressively last week in MInnesota and carried that over today against the Bears.

However, giving up just 19 points in those two games by taking the action to the opposition is something I thought could be accomplished this season given the talent on the defense.

Again, I have no idea why the change has occurred, but I certainly hope it continues next week and into the 2024 season no matter who the DC is.

Please rewind the tapes to last year and the prior year. You'll find the same cycle. Scheme the D to suck until December and then cut them loose to make things happen. Three years running now. I'm tired of it. If we keep Joe, it'll be the same next year.

[APB]

How many expected Wyatt to take the leap he has this season? At least from an interior pass rush standpoint?





If he ever figures out how to play the run with any consistency, look out!

[MY_TAKE]

How many expected Wyatt to take the leap he has this season? At least from an interior pass rush standpoint?





If he ever figures out how to play the run with any consistency, look out!

I had heard rumblings this preseason about him flahshing his tools (lol) but your right, I didnt predict this.

Now however, I picked him for "here's johnny" because of the impact he could have on this game and making Dak very uncomfortable. He has that blue chip pedigree. It is time! Him and Quay need to get that Georgia national championship Mojo going again.

[YoHoChecko]

ha, whoops; just posted that in the Packers thread before checking in on the defense thread

[Scott4Pack]

I can't help but think that our D will shut down Dallas this Sunday and even play well all the way to the Superb Owl. Then, MLF will absolutely give Joe B a new, high-paying contract for the next three years.

:-)

[lupedafiasco]

I think Wyatt is going to really be a force next season. It always takes IDL a few years to put it all together. We rotated him still quite a bit this year. And if Van Ness can put it together next season too!

[YoHoChecko]

Film junkies love Clark

Clark and Wyatt could really be something in the coming years. Not to mention Brooks

[Scott4Pack]

I am 100% good on firing Joe. Have been since 2022. That said, this is my reasoning.

I am for firing Joe because he schemes his defense to be too conservative. That's it. His version of "bend but don't break" allows other teams to control too much yardage and time. And it usually gives up too many points anyhow. And that's been it since 2022, for me.

I don't get so cranked because our D under-performs. They certainly do most of the time. I expect them to under-perform. But they under-perform because they seem to have much more talent than their performance level, as a unit, would indicate.

I want a DC hired that convinces the team and the fans that all of his coaches and players give 100% to operate in a UNIT above expectations.