I've posted a lot less about the draft this year than normal. Usually around the all star games I start my own thread of draft thoughts and early prospect lists and update as I have thoughts throughout. Because I didn't this year, most of my thoughts haven't been written down but I'm gonna try to put things here in a big @$$ post, so feel free to scroll on by and continue other conversations, but I need my takes in a quotable form so I can brag about my hits and bemoan my misses for years to come
Pick 25
I have found myself REALLY wanting either Cooper Dejean or Graham Barton (or Fautanu or Fuaga--but they'll likely be longer-gone)
My thinking is that we have multiple needs on the OL and in the secondary. On the OLine, we likely need a starting-caliber C and a starting-caliber RG within the next 2 years. We need depth at OT and possible competition for our starters. In the secondary, we need competition for a starting nickel CB, we need a starting S, we need depth at every position.
And so using a top-caliber player with insane versatility to potentially fill ANY of those needs. And then as you move through the draft, the players who have less top-end ability can fill in the slots and putting out a complete, cohesive unit is that much easier.
So a 3-5 position OL and a versatile secondary piece really appeal to me, but as I look at the draft order, 20-24 are a murderers' row of teams that need help on the OL and in the secondary. For that reason, I would be VERY willing to trade either pick 88 or 91 to move from 25 to 20 or 19 to secure one of those two guys. That is very against my grain, but the 4/5-pick difference in player caliber we can get really feels steep to me. So it could be worth the cost... which is saying something because I LOVE the 3rd round this year (As Usual)
The Third(ish) Round: Some Names
The third round is a great time to grab the sleeper prospects at whatever big need position we miss out on with the first 2-3 picks. So I'm looking at safeties, OL, corners, and LBs that are in that 3rd/4th round
OFFENSIVE LINE
I've recently fallen in love with
Brandon Coleman as a Packers prospect. Legit OT/OG versatility, hits our athletic thresholds, toughness and grit, pretty raw as he didn't start playing football until he was almost done with high school. Might be more like a late second but his value varies--could go between 55 and 85 I'd say.
Kiran Amegadjie out of Yale couldn't test because of injury but appears to have all of the athletic traits we would need; big competition jump and developmental needs combine with lack of testing make him a gamble, but that's why he'll likely be there in the 3rd. Some see him as a guard prospect, so potential developmental versatility.
Roger Rosengarten was a RT but for a left-handed QB in college. He hit all the athletic threshholds, though some tape grinders were surprised by his testing; that said, his movement skills are universally praised. Probably a tackle only, but could play either side. Kiper keeps putting him at the end of the 1st, but everywhere else I see has him in that 55 to 90 kind of range.
Blake Fisheris that young, athletic swing tackle that really screams Packers pick. Bet on the youth and upside. The tape was solid.
Mason McCormickis an interior versatile athletic player who fits Packers draft prospects to a tee on paper. He was said to dominate his lower level competition and has a great play demeanor. That said, his tape sounds like it shows a lot more stiffness than the athletic testing indicates. That has come up from a couple evaluators and worries me. I like him more in the 4th than in the 3rd for that reason.
Taylor Bordolini is measurably a carbon copy of Zach Tom except that his arms are 1.5 inches shorter. Same height, 4 pounds difference in weight. Bordolini a hair better on the insanely good agility tests (Packers definitely care about OL short shuttle). Bordolini allows us to, instead of moving a high-level OT inside to C, we can just draft his C-focused clone, who has a length issue to keep him inside. Plus he's a Packers fan.
LINEBACKERS
Honestly most of these guys are probably closer to 4th rounders than 3rd rounders. Maybe even some 5th. But these are the guys I like if we miss out on the top tier or want to double up
Jordan Magee out of Temple is My Guy at this position. He's a bit undersized in the McDuffie range (6013, 228) but runs a 4.55 and is REALLY smart. All the evaluators comment on his football IQ. I can't overstate how important I think it is to have a football IQ guy next to Walker to ensure both of their success. Walker can't be our green dot guy; he needs to think less, not more. Magee gives us the smarts without sacrificing athleticism, at the expense of size but that's the league trend. I would take him at 88 or 91 even though the people would call it a reach.
The only knock I can really see on
Edefuan Ulofoshio out of Washington is that he's a bit of a 1-year wonder with an injury history. But he seems to have the smarts and athleticism (4.56) to match solid film with some playmaking. Some people think that he might be maxed out, but he's a high-floor player who would be a valuable special teamer if nothing else, but I really see a steady starting quality player here.
Cedric Gray from UNC is a pretty standard sleeper candidate for LB with good run and chase film and good enough NFL athleticism. I like him a lot, too.
Jalyx Hunt should be a 5th round flier as a developmental EDGE but the scuttlebutt keeps bringing him up making me think he might go top 100 or 120. But why do I have him with linebackers? Well, he's a former safety who ran the same times as Cedric Gray and other LBs like that. And he's not a very good pass rusher yet. He's a raw ball of clay. I like the idea of having a strongside LB who plays a limited role (as a 4-2-5 will be our primary alignment) but is also an edge option. Off ball with edge capability appeals to me more than edge with off ball capabilities for the new scheme. And at pick 126, I could see us taking on a conversion project; though pick 169(5th) would be a lot more exciting.
(The rest of my LB sleepers are solidly day 3 guys, so I won't go there)
SAFETIES
Malik Mustapha out of Wake Forest has been rising on some boards but with others caveating that the rise may overlook some coverage concerns. Mustapha would be a good complement to McKinney but would not give us the swap-ability with safeties. He's a big striker but not always the best wrapper. But he has instincts and downhill ability.
Kitan Oladapo has been mentioned here because he had a visit. He's another complement, but with a little bit better athleticism and sound tackling than Mustapha. Feels like a high floor guy.
Dadrian Taylor-Demerson gives us more of the McKinney-style rangy ball-hawk for the back end. He's another guy that's been talked about on the board already; feels like a skillset we value.
Tykee Smith from UGA remains one of my favorite slot/safety options. Good football IQ, good physicality. Feels like a good guy to have on the field if you're looking to improve run support out of nickel personnel.
CORNERBACK
Mostly focusing on nickel CBs in this stretch for no real reason--probably hoping that we get a boundary CB for depth earlier, but also because our nickel CB need is more clearly immediate, given Valentine's play last year and the potential for a Stokes bounce-back as he's further-removed from his injuries (I have strong doubts he becomes what he could have become given the delay in his development and the importance of speed to his game, but it would also be silly to write him off entirely)
My favorite 3rd/4th round nickel prospect is probably
Jarvis Brownlee out of Louisville because he's got that dog in him. A little shorter but thicker, mediocre (but good enough) speed (4.51) but good quicks. Lots of plays on the ball throughout his career.
Kris Abrams-Draine is too thin (179/183) and played primarily outside, but I think his fit in the NFL will be in the slot and to work on his functional strength. A former high school QB, sees the game well, makes a lot of plays on the ball--like, a LOT.
Myles Harden from South Dakota is like a later-round version of Brownlee in terms of size and speed and NFL role. The competition jump and shorter arms and less ball skills push him down a bit, but a good alternative in the 5th (I'm straying from the 3rd/4th round premise here, huh?)
If I were to pick an outside corner in this range, it might be
Cam Hart from Notre Dame. He's a bigger more physical corner that reminds me a bit of Rasul as a good matchup for an opposing team's most physical WR. He's been on my radar since a strong showing at the Senior Bowl.
I also can't leave this section without mentioning Elijah Jones, who probably shouldn't go until Day Three but if Hafley liked him at BC (and he was called one of the team's smartest players) he has the requisite size and athleticism to be an NFL DB. He needs to get stronger and I think in general the "college coach picks his own players in the NFL" dynamic is a bit overrated, it would make some sense to have a familiar guy who is smart and athletic in the building for a secondary transition.
Some Other Nuggets
- I like Zach Frazier of West Virginia a LOT, but as a center-only prospect, it's hard for me to value him in the top 75
- Jackson Powers-Johnson is falling in the league rumor mill and there seems to be smoke that there is "a reason" but no one I've heard has said if it's injury, character, or just the media got too carried away on him? Mixed opinions on whether he's a center-only or has guard capabilities, as well as how he'd fit in more of a zone scheme versus a power/gap scheme. But if he's there at 41, he'd be tough to pass up (assuming we did not already take Barton).
- If we take a TE I would like a Day Three pick on Jaheem Bell and putting him in the Deguara role. His YAC ability would be sweet to be a FB/Hback short game role. He'd need to improve as a lead blocker, but that's easy to do.
- I want to wait for Day Three at RB. I LOVE Tyrone Tracey, could go for Blake Watson--both former WRs. Isaac Guerendo, as well, as a complementary piece. Gurrendo sorta reminds me of Pachecko in terms of a big straight-line fast physical late rounder.
- If we don't get the speed guy at RB, Ray Davis, Isiah Davis, Cody Schroeder, and Dylan Laube could be day three pieces. But I prefer the former group.
- Day Three linebackers I like include Tyrice Knight from UTEP who I think has real upside; and Marist Liufau out of Notre Dame who I think is more a safe pick; plus a potential conversion from safety that has been talked about on the board for a safety like Jaylon Carlies.
- Day Three safeties I like include Sione Vaki from Utah and Trey Taylor from Air Force.
- I'm generally out on DL as a position to take in the draft this year. I understand the Slaton/Clark contract situations, but right now we have a full room and a young room. It'd be hard to kick someone off the roster for a rookie who won't contribute much this year. So if Johnny Newton or Murphy fall to 25 and we take them, so be it. But otherwise, I'm passing until next year.
- This is sort of a buried early-draft take, but I'm warming to the notion that if we take a top-tier LB, I want it to be Junior Colston to ensure we have a field general in there--lack of testing and uncertain athleticism makes that a scary prospect--but he's the surest bet there.
- Day Three athletic developmental OTs I like include Frank Crum from Wyoming, Garrett Greenfield from South Dakota St
- Day Three Centers that I could get behind include Beaux Limmer (maybe should be in the 3rd/4th section here) and maybe Dylan McMahon though he's small.
- The Guards I like completely dry up by the end of round three, I think. There are some OT to G convert prospects on Day three, but not many that are our athletic profile
- If we go RB on Day Two, I want Trey Benson or Jalen Wright. The other guys are fine but don't move the needle for me
- I haven't mentioned EDGE rushers because I haven't studied them much because the class isn't that good but I really don't love the class even though I could see adding a guy making sense. I like Jonah Ellis (3rd/4th) from Utah or Eric Watts from UConn (very late). I'm sure I'll talk myself into whoever we take there. OH, Adisa Isaac seems to be better than his media draft stock, so I could see that if he's there for us in round 3, but I think he goes earlier.
Ok, I think that's enough for now.
