Packers in Fantasy Football

[lupedafiasco]

What's everyone's thought on Packers players ADP's so far this year in fantasy? I think we are ripe for a ton of steals. Might not work much for those in the GB area or with a circle of GB friends in their drafts but for me who lives away from the area my drafts have been booming with Packers players late in the draft.

Using ESPN ADP our first player is Josh Jacobs at 39.4. Its astounding to me that he is RB16 below the likes of Pacheco, Etienne, Mixon, and White. He was inefficient last season but in a much better situation where I would argue everyone else on this list is in a worse position.

Love is QB10 at 89.5 ADP. Ive been waiting in all my drafts to get a QB late if I'm getting Love that late. Especially when you can just double up late on Love and Purdy, Herbert, Goff, Rodgers, or Tua.

At WR Reed is WR37 at 98.1 and Watson WR41 at 105.8. I think both offer the opportunity to be a really good flex with WR2 potential and possibly league winners this deep in the draft. Wicks is WR69 at 169.2 that Ive been just taking with one of my last picks because I believe if Watson does get hurt again you have a legitimate league winner at WR or he can just straight up beat out Watson or Doubs as the primary boundary WR.

At TE Musgrave is TE21 and Kraft TE30 with 169.3 and 169.8 ADP respectively. I am not ready to draft either one of them yet until I see a little bit of how camp goes.

[NCF]

Wicks is WR69 at 169.2 that Ive been just taking with one of my last picks because I believe if Watson does get hurt again you have a legitimate league winner at WR or he can just straight up beat out Watson or Doubs as the primary boundary WR.

I'm with you 100% without the Watson injury qualifier. I think where Doubs was Love's security blanket last year, due to a season of polish, Wicks can step into that role this year. He pretty much did towards the end of last season, anyway. I am a hard sucker for size/speed WR's, but I have realized more and more lately that route running and release technique get you further in today's NFL. Combine some of those traits together and those are today's best WR's.

[mnkcarp]

Love seems like the surest bet and best value in redraft. I started a dynasty league this year elsewhere because I wanted a shot at these Packers which are expensive in Packer fan leagues. I still had Love swiped before I could draft him.

The WRs are a crapshoot but worth it at the price. Reed was WR 25 in PPR last season, and when Watson was out and Love was on fire, he was in top ten WR territory. The problem is we don't know how it all shakes out for target share among all of these guys. Any one of them has a legit path to being a fantasy stud this year, but they won't all do it.

I think Jacobs/Lloyd will be very interesting this year. I hear that Jacobs wants to catch the ball more, which would be fantastic for his value. I'm taking him in the third round in a lot of mocks right now and would be happy to get him there, and then take Lloyd ten rounds later or so for insurance.

Both TEs have a legit shot too, which makes each one less valuable.

[go pak go]

I don't play fantasty by everyone who asks of advice from me I simply tell them.

I'm gonna give you a darkhorse. DO NOT DRAFT HIM. You will not need to draft him but pick him up after the draft and just stash him on your team and you very well may have a stretch during the season where your league is envious you have him and question how the heck you every heard of him as he is putting up 100+ yard and 2 TD games.

Bo Melton.

[Acrobat]

My leagues !@#$ me off because everyone drafts Packers players too early, so I usually don't end up with any on my team.

[NCF]

[BSA]

.
I haven't played fantasy since 1991...but if I did...the only way I'd draft a GB WR is if I drafted all of them.
Just too hard to predict snaps/stats for such a deep group and a QB who runs the offense as designed- spreading it around

Here's snap counts for 2023, the variability among the WRs is really quite amazing. ( Doubs was most consistent week-week in snap counts)

https://www.footballguys.com/stats/snap ... &year=2023

lowest % vs highest % snaps played for WRs (ignoring the 0's when they were out injured)

Doubs... 18- 90%
Watson... 46 - 88 %
Reed... 39-73 %
Wicks... 22-78 %
Heath... 14-77 %
Melton...4-75%

The other part that makes Packers WRs tough to value in FF is the presence of 2 stud TEs and MLF's desire to run a lot of 12 personnel.
That means only 2 WRs on the field for about 25 % of the plays. 11 personnel was "only" deployed about 63 % last year and that limits Reed's snaps.
The Packers offense will be prolific, but they're probably gonna be super frustrating for FF players.

[Acrobat]

We should just turn this into a fantasy football thread:

If you had the choice to keep 1 for the following value, which would you keep (PPR)?

Devon Achane - 10th rd pick

Tank Dell - 17th rd pick


I'm leaning towards Achane just because I feel like he does have a chance to be a league winner this year based on his potential. Tank was really good last year and his value is fantastic but I'm afraid of not keeping Achane and then he just blows the league up this year.

[NCF]

I'm leaning towards Achane just because I feel like he does have a chance to be a league winner this year based on his potential. Tank was really good last year and his value is fantastic but I'm afraid of not keeping Achane and then he just blows the league up this year.

Tank Dell, hands down. Achane was so beat up last year, he may be a bit of a China doll. Not only that, but he is part of a crowded backfield and in an offense with a ton of mouths to feed. Mostert rushed for 20+ TD's last year and they used another high draft pick on a RB this season. I get the potential concern, but Tank Dell is a baller with a clear role in that offense.

[Acrobat]

I'm leaning towards Achane just because I feel like he does have a chance to be a league winner this year based on his potential. Tank was really good last year and his value is fantastic but I'm afraid of not keeping Achane and then he just blows the league up this year.

Tank Dell, hands down. Achane was so beat up last year, he may be a bit of a China doll. Not only that, but he is part of a crowded backfield and in an offense with a ton of mouths to feed. Mostert rushed for 20+ TD's last year and they used another high draft pick on a RB this season. I get the potential concern, but Tank Dell is a baller with a clear role in that offense.

It's funny you say that because I was heels dug in the ground on Achane but the coach's comment the other day of "why stop at 2 starting RB's" had me worried. I do like that they are lining Achane up at WR thought.

But yeah I hear you. Tank Dell was so good and he'll see plenty of targets even with Diggs and Collins in the mix. And that 17th round value helps.

[APB]

In one of my leagues, I have Love and Justin Herbert as my 1/2 QBs. We all know Love’s status, and now Herbert has also apparently suffered some level of injury. Still unknown whether it'll impact his availability this week. Derek Carr is available on the wire, though, and every indication is he's thriving under Klint Kubiak's new system. I also have the top waiver priority to grab him.

Easy fix, right?

Well, this past weekend, one of our members dropped Puka Nakua to fill a roster injury vacancy. My understanding is Nakua will be back in 5-7 weeks. Adding him could be like getting another R1 pick for the stretch run.

Waivers process tonight, like in most leagues.

So I'm torn between addressing the immediate concern and assuring continued QB production or grabbing a potential stretch run difference maker at WR. Nukua will likely be snagged before my waiver priority came back around.

Thoughts?

[lupedafiasco]

I’d drop Herbert for Puka. That’ll set you up for a deep playoff run. Analytically it’s never a good thing to keep more than 1 QB. You’re better off holding onto a teams backup RB in the event the starter gets hurt.

[APB]

I’d drop Herbert for Puka. That’ll set you up for a deep playoff run. Analytically it’s never a good thing to keep more than 1 QB. You’re better off holding onto a teams backup RB in the event the starter gets hurt.

I generally agree with the 1 QB sentiment but only later in the season once the chosen guy shows he can consistently deliver and to safeguard against an early injury derailing the entire season. Mid-season I’ll look to add another position player but not now. I have another bench level player I’ll dump if that’s the route I go.

If I go with Puka and miss out on Carr, I can still get a Minshew level player to tie me over if Love sits another week. Think I’m leaning toward Puka and the long term benefit.

[mnkcarp]

I’d drop Herbert for Puka. That’ll set you up for a deep playoff run. Analytically it’s never a good thing to keep more than 1 QB. You’re better off holding onto a teams backup RB in the event the starter gets hurt.

If I go with Puka and miss out on Carr, I can still get a Minshew level player to tie me over if Love sits another week. Think I’m leaning toward Puka and the long term benefit.

This is what makes it a clear Puka for me. If you had lost a starting QB for the season, it'd be Carr, but Love will be back and you'll be all happy there.

[Scott4Pack]

PUka is probably the best choice here. The problem is that more and more QBs are getting hurt and missing time. Are you willing to risk whomever is on the waiver wire when your starting QB goes down?

[lupedafiasco]

There are so many viable fantasy QBs right now. If you didn’t land one of the elite rushing QBs there isn’t much fall off between a mediocre rushing QB and a good passing QB. Depending on scoring settings of course. That’s why Fields and Richardson are great fantasy QBs but &%$@ in real life.

[APB]

I used Kraft this week as a fantasy TE bye week filler for Dallas Goedert in two of my leagues.

#winning

[APB]

I am undefeated and top scoring team in one of my leagues. Playing the no. 2 team this week, also undefeated.

I was up by 12 or so pts going into SNF with CeeDee Lamb still to play. He had Jake Ferguson, George Pickens, and Brandon Aubrey.

I held a 1.4 pt lead as the final Dallas drive began. CeeDee caught a ball, then Ferguson did too which pretty much negated the points gained by each of us. Then Dallas scores on 4th down and Aubrey (eventually) kicks the XP after multiple offsides calls on Pittsburgh. I was hollering at McCarthy to go for two with the ball now at the half yard line but to no avail. Despite that, I'm up by less than a half point and feeling somewhat relieved.

Then the $%@# Steelers have the final play and attempt the "hot potato" play that starts with Fields completing the pass to George $%@# Pickens for 6ish yards, and he subsequently tosses it back to whoever and it's eventually fumbled away.

That final completion to Pickens cost me the week. I am going to be the second highest scoring team for the week but lose to the highest scoring because of that damn final garbage time play.

Sometimes I hate fantasy football.

[APB]

I have Jordan Love as my primary QB in all three of my fantasy leagues this season. I just pulled him from my lineup in every league in favor of Sam Darnold (home vs Colts) and Matthew Stafford (@Seahawks).

I just don’t trust there will be much in the way of passing offense with the weather forecast to be a rainy mess.

Anybody else pulling their Packer players?