Packers @ Vikings GDT: Sun., Dec. 29th, 3:25 PM CST

[Pckfn23]

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings


Sunday, December 29th, 3:25 PM CST
Spread: Green Bay Packers +1
Over/Under: 48.5

Stadium

US Bank Stadium


Injury Report


Broadcast (FOX)
https://506sports.com/nfl.php?yr=2024&wk=17

On The Call
Kevin Burkhardt, Tom Brady


Dope Sheet

https://www.packers.com/news/dope-sheet ... wk-17-2024

The Green Bay Packers head a state over to take on the Minnesota Vikings.

It marks the first time in the 64-year history of the series that both teams will enter the game with 11-plus wins. The 24 combined wins are the most ever in a meeting between the two teams.
It marks the fourth straight season that the two teams will meet in Week 17.
Green Bay is 65-58-3 (.528) all-time against Minnesota in the regular season.
The Packers' 65 wins are eight more then any other NFL team has against the Vikings.
Of the past 21 regular-season meetings in Minnesota between the teams, 14 have been decided by single digits.
The Packers have a 31-31 record in away games against the Vikings, including wins at Minnesota in three of the last five seasons.
Since 2000, the Packers are 28-19-2 (.602) in regular-season contests versus the Vikings.
Under Head Coach Matt LaFleur, the Packers are 6-5 against the Vikings and have scored 21-plus points in nine of the 11 contests.
Green Bay's six wins over Minnesota since 2019 are the most in the NFL (Detroit is No. 2 with five).
Of the past 44 regular-season meetings between the teams, 26 of those games have been decided by seven points or less.
Before the two-point win by Minnesota in Week 4 this season, the series saw five straight games with a scoring margin of 14-plus points. It was the most consecutive games in the series decided by 14-plus points, surpassing four-game streaks from 1961 to 1962 and 1990 to 1991 (STATS). Prior to that five-game stretch, six of the seven games were decided by single digits, including a tie.
The two teams have split the season series in each of the last four years (2020-23), marking the longest stretch in series history. Last season, each team won on the road.
Green Bay has scored 30-plus points in three of the last four road games, including 33 in a win last season.
Since realignment in 2002, the Packers (12) and Vikings (five) have accounted for 17 of the 22 NFC North titles.
It is the first non-prime-time game for the Packers since Nov. 24.
The Packers' streak of five straight road NFC North victories ended in Week 14. Since realignment in 2002, that five-game road winning streak tied for the second longest by Green Bay against NFC North teams behind only a seven-game winning streak from 2019-21 (the first seven road NFC North contests of LaFleur's head-coaching career).
For the fourth straight season and the fifth time in the last six years, the Packers finish the regular season with back-to-back NFC North contests. After the game in Minnesota, Green Bay returns home to face the Bears in the season finale on a date and time to be determined.
WITH THE CALL

FOX Sports, now in its 31st season as an NFL network television partner, will broadcast the game.

Play-by-play man Kevin Burkhardt joins analyst Tom Brady and sideline reporters Erin Andrews and Tom Rinaldi.


The game is also available through NFL Sunday Ticket by YouTube.

All Packers games can be heard on the Packers Radio Network, which is made up of 54 stations in Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois and North and South Dakota. 97.3 The Game – WRNW-Milwaukee begins its third season as the flagship station of the Packers Radio Network. For a map and full listing of radio affiliates, go to packers.com/video/radio-network. Wayne Larrivee (play-by-play) and two-time Packers Pro Bowler Larry McCarren (analyst) call the action. McCarren first joined the team's broadcasts in 1995 and enters his 30th season calling Packers games. After originally being paired together in 1999, McCarren and Larrivee enter their 26th season of broadcasts together. They surpassed Jim Irwin and Max McGee for the most regular-season and postseason games broadcast for the Packers with 313 at the 2018 season opener against Chicago.

The broadcast is also available on Sirius Satellite Radio on channel 111 or 384 or through the app (Packers Radio Network feed).

Sports USA Radio will be broadcasting the game to a national audience with Ted Robinson (play-by-play) and Brandon Noble (analyst) on the call.

This is an abbreviated version of the Dope Sheet. Read the full version here (PDF).


THE DOPE ON THIS WEEK'S OPPONENT

Packers at Vikings:

All-time, regular season: 65-58-3
All-time, postseason: 1-1
All-time, at Minnesota (regular season): 31-31
Streaks: Green Bay and Minnesota have split the last six regular-season games played.
Last meeting, regular season: Sept. 29, 2024, Lambeau Field, Vikings won, 31-29
COACHES CAPSULES

Matt LaFleur: 67-31-0, .684; (3-4 postseason); 6th NFL season
Kevin O'Connell: 33-16-0, .673; (0-1 postseason); 3rd NFL season
Head to Head: LaFleur 2-3 vs. O'Connell
vs. Opponent: LaFleur 6-5 vs. Vikings; O'Connell 3-2 vs. Packers

MATT LaFLEUR…In his sixth season as the Packers' 15th head coach.

Is in his 16th season in the NFL, having previously served as an offensive coordinator for two seasons (Los Angeles Rams, 2017; Tennessee Titans, 2018), a quarterbacks coach for six seasons (Washington Redskins, 2010-13; Atlanta Falcons, 2015-16), and an offensive assistant for two seasons (Houston Texans, 2008-09).

In his first six seasons leading the Packers, has authored one of the greatest starts to a head-coaching career in NFL history. Per the Elias Sports Bureau, his 67 wins are the second most in league history by a head coach in his first six seasons in the NFL, trailing only George Seifert (75 in 1989-94).

Became the first coach in NFL history to post 13-plus wins in three straight seasons and his 39 wins from 2019-21 passed Seifert (38) for the most wins by an NFL head coach in his first three seasons in the league (Elias). His 39 wins are also tied for the second most by a coach over any three-season span in league history, trailing only Andy Reid's 40 wins with the Kansas City Chiefs from 2020-22 and Mike Ditka's 40 wins with the Chicago Bears from 1985-87 (Elias).

In his first season leading the Packers in 2019, became the first coach in club history to lead the team to the playoffs in his debut season. Also led the largest one-year win improvement in team history (plus-seven wins).


KEVIN O'CONNELL…In his third season as the Vikings' 10th head coach.

Is in his 10th season as an NFL coach, having previously spent time with the Los Angeles Rams (2020-21), Washington Redskins (2017-19), San Francisco 49ers (2016) and Cleveland Browns (2015).

Led the Vikings to 13 wins in 2022, the most by any first-year head coach in franchise history, earning the club's first division title since 2017.

Had seven players win Player of the Week awards in 2022, the most by a first-year head coach in franchise history. Seven notched Pro Bowl berths and three earned Associated Press All-Pro honors as well.

Helped coach QB Matthew Stafford and the Rams to a victory in Super Bowl LVI during the 2021 season.


This is an abbreviated version of the Dope Sheet. Read the full version here (PDF).

THE PACKERS-VIKINGS SERIES

The all-time series began in 1961 with the Packers rattling off six wins in a row (1961-63) before the Vikings took 22 of the next 32 contests from 1964-79.

From 1979 to 1990, Green Bay had a run of its own, winning 16 of 21 games. Since 2000, the Packers are 28-18-2 (.604) in regular-season games against the Vikings.

Green Bay and Minnesota have met twice in the playoffs. Both times were in an NFC Wild Card game, the Vikings winning the first matchup in 2004 before the Packers returned the favor in 2012.


The Packers and Vikings have split the season series each of the last four seasons (2020-23). Green Bay was the last team to win both games in the same season in 2019. The Vikings won back-to-back games in 2020-21.

Weather

Packers 38
Vikings 17

[go pak go]

Really thought Jaire Alexander was going to be a go for this one.

What the heck is going on with him?

He never plays. We pay him a lot of money to only play a Wildcard game.

[BSA]

.
Here is Total DVOA for the current week

https://ftnfantasy.com/dvoa/nfl/team-total-dvoa


Packers are at # 3 team overall
vikings are # 6

And here is how the bettors see it - with a historical change in spread

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/big-hist ... jg35z7azx6

"After the Minnesota Vikings beat the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday to improve to 13-2, they were 2-point favorites for this week’s game against the Green Bay Packers. By Christmas morning, the Packers (11-4) had moved to a 1-point favorite.
After shifting back in Minnesota’s direction, Green Bay was a 1-point favorite as of Friday night. The line was 1.5-point favorites at some sportsbooks, including at FanDuel, where 59 percent of the money is on Green Bay even though 52 percent of the bets are on Minnesota.

According to Ed Salmons, the vice president of risk management for SuperBook Sports, sharp money has pushed the line Green Bay’s way.

“Professional money is slowly moving the Packers to the favorite,” Salmons said.
“For the most part,” he added, “I think the Packers are much more thought of than the Vikings from our part of the world.”
.

[BSA]

.
In the first matchup back in September, the top 3 CBs by snap count were Nixon, Stokes and Ballentine.
Both Jaire and Valentine were out. At Safety, Evan Williams only played 10 snaps
Preston Smith played 44 snaps, those will now be taken by Wooden, Cox, Mosby

Offense was mostly intact, Watson went down after only 9 snaps
Narveson whiffed 2 FGs and the Packers turned the ball over 4 times (!) They average 1.1/game

https://www.footballguys.com/stats/snap ... &year=2024

[BSA]

.
Vikings defense and DC are lauded for being aggressive, creative, and bringing guys from all over.
They're a real handful for the OL to figure out. vikes have delivered 44 sacks on the year, from 11 different players

The Packers defense has delivered 43 sacks on the year, delivered by 16 different players.

[APB]

Vikings defense and DC are lauded for being aggressive, creative, and bringing guys from all over.
They're a real handful for the OL to figure out. vikes have delivered 44 sacks on the year, from 11 different players

The Packers defense has delivered 43 sacks on the year, delivered by 16 different players.

That is interesting to note. You hear about Flores and his whirlwind scheme producing so much chaos...but nary a peep outside of WI about Hafley and the job he's done. Well, until recently anyway.

[NCF]

Aaron Jones second half fumble leads the Pack to victory.

[BSA]

Aaron Jones

Jones and ILB Jamin Davis from our PS are the only former Packers in minny these days

https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/MIN

Packers have Eric Wilson who spent 3-4 years in minny

https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/GB

[go pak go]

Very, very interested to see how the Nixon/Vallentine/Stokes trio does this Sunday.

A lot of comments on how strong this group has been since the bye week but this will be their toughest test yet. They failed the exam the first go around. My hope is Edge Cooper's presence will reduce the ability to attack the middle of the field as much the Lions did a couple weeks ago. The next obvious areas to exploit is the CBs and Zayne Anderson.

I have been pleased with Zayne this year. He is actually a competent 4th safety (I now understand why they kept him over Anthony Johnson Jr) but he is going to be tested strongly. My ultimate fear is I believe the type of WRs that can exploit this CB the most is your smaller/shiftier guys and that is Jefferson and Addison.

Another thing to keep an eye on is Elgton Jenkins. We have had ridiculous consistency on the Oline this year. Jenkins out could hurt but I will say that Telford performed far better in his limited snaps than I feared he would when forced to play in Seattle.

image.png (46.76 KiB) Viewed 538 times

[BSA]

.
ACME Packing with some notes on the game: How to attack the vikes D

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2024 ... -red-zone

"The Vikings have a good defense this year, currently ranked the 5th defense in the league by FTN’s DVOA. A good overall defense doesn’t always mean a good red zone defense, and that certainly holds here. While they have a top 5 defense overall, the Vikings are 13th in opponent red zone TD rate, allowing a TD on 54.8% of opponent drives (per TeamRankings). The Vikings being 13th in red zone defense isn’t bad, but the Packers have been rolling. Over the last 3 weeks, they’ve faced the 14th-best red zone defense (Saints), 10th-best (Seahawks) and 7th-best (Lions) and scored touchdowns on 76.9% of their trips to the red zone in those games"

[go pak go]

.
ACME Packing with some notes on the game: How to attack the vikes D

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2024 ... -red-zone

"The Vikings have a good defense this year, currently ranked the 5th defense in the league by FTN’s DVOA. A good overall defense doesn’t always mean a good red zone defense, and that certainly holds here. While they have a top 5 defense overall, the Vikings are 13th in opponent red zone TD rate, allowing a TD on 54.8% of opponent drives (per TeamRankings). The Vikings being 13th in red zone defense isn’t bad, but the Packers have been rolling. Over the last 3 weeks, they’ve faced the 14th-best red zone defense (Saints), 10th-best (Seahawks) and 7th-best (Lions) and scored touchdowns on 76.9% of their trips to the red zone in those games"

Our run game is such a weapon inside the RZ. Absolutely scoring TDs and forcing them to FGs will be a huge key to the game.

[BSA]

from The Ringer

https://www.theringer.com/2024/12/27/nf ... rs-vikings

Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings

"The market is treating the 11-4 Packers as a better team than the 13-2 Vikings with this line as essentially a tossup in Minnesota. I agree with the sentiment that the Packers have a higher power rating, but I don’t think there’s a ton of betting value on either side in this matchup. A Green Bay loss could bump them down to the seven seed if the Commanders win Sunday. A Green Bay win would leave them more likely than not to pass the Vikings for the five seed in Week 18. That could be the difference between a first-round trip to Philadelphia or Atlanta, so this game absolutely matters for Green Bay. Meanwhile, Minnesota still controls its own destiny for the first seed in the NFC playoffs.

Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores did an excellent job in the first matchup of bringing pressure and speeding up Jordan Love’s processing. As a result, Love made multiple early mistakes that dug the Packers into a huge hole. Green Bay fought its way back into the game and was able to generate consistent explosive plays throughout, which would suggest that there could be plenty of points in this game regardless of whether it’s close or one team grabs a multiple-score lead.

These two defenses will let you move the ball on them, but they’re both excellent at locking down on third downs and the red zone. As a result, both the Packers and Vikings are top five in EPA per drive allowed in the second half of the season.

When great offenses match up against great defenses indoors, I usually tend to side with the offenses. This is especially true with two units as good at forcing turnovers as Green Bay and Minnesota have been this year. That sets up potential short fields. These two offenses also rank top six in explosive play rate, so the ball will constantly be moving up and down the field.

I expect points in this matchup, and the kind of game where the last team with the ball wins "

Verdict: Lean Over 48.5 points

[BF004]

Vikings playing for a lot, Packers can be lose and take some chances. Wouldn't be shocked to see a coupla trick plays, putting some crazy stuff out there for D's to have to prepare for in the playoffs. Might end up getting a couple free first downs or even a TD out of it. Same on D, few random exotic blitzes.

Just come in and play hard and fast, play to win. Gunna get hit either way each play, might as well be the hammer.

Sucks probably no Jaire, Williams, or Bullard again, 3 of your top 5 DBacks continually out sucks ass, but this unit has been building some chemistry. I'd expect Minny to find a way to stretch out Zayne Anderson's responsibilities and make him a frequent target.

Pass rush would go a long ways for helping that unit out.

Kind of hate helping out Detroit, but Minnesota is the enemy this week, so hope they get everything we can throw at them.

[BSA]

.
Here are the Sagarin Ratings for current week. These are score-based rankings used for betting purposes

http://sagarin.com/sports/nflsend.htm

Packers have climbed all the way up to number 2, sandwiched between Lions & Bills
vikes are at number 6

The Packers strength of schedule has dropped to number 8
The vikings strength of schedule is at number 24

[BF004]

Verdict: Lean Over 48.5 points

Feeling like this will be another. 34-31 type of game. But this is the #2 and #6 scoring D’s in the league.

But I’d lean over 48.5 too.

[Acrobat]

Vikings are a crap organization and have crap fans. I hope they all get AIDS.

Go Pack!

[go pak go]

Verdict: Lean Over 48.5 points

Feeling like this will be another. 34-31 type of game. But this is the #2 and #6 scoring D’s in the league.

But I’d lean over 48.5 too.

Yeah I'd be shocked if the combined score is under 50 points to be honest.

[BSA]

from The Dope Sheet

Green Bay is 65-58-3 (.528) all-time against Minnesota in the regular season.

The Packers' 65 wins are 8 more then any other NFL team has against the Vikings.

The Packers have a 31-31 record in away games against the Vikings, including wins at Minnesota in 3 of the last 5 seasons.

Since 2000, the Packers are 28-19-2 (.602) in regular-season contests versus the Vikings.

[BSA]

.
I didn't realize that The Angry Bald Man was coaching for the vikes...

[APB]

Williams has been ruled out but it appears Bullard has got a shot.