Cheese Curds - News Around the League 2024

[musclestang]

I didn't watch a single snap of Christmas day football. Ridiculous for the turnaround time, it's not a normal NFL day, Football is not a part of "Christmas" so I don't see a need to force it, and i'm pretty much against streaming only games. The more they force me to make decisions the more I find I don't miss it as much as I thought it would. Tread lightly NFL, I think they're making a lot of stupid long term decisions for some short term gain.

They got 65 million views with bad games.

They're doing fine. Your reservations are going to age out of the desired market. The NFL beats everything else when it comes to eyeballs on screens. Regular degular games beat MLB playoff games and NBA playoff games. They do run a risk of oversaturation. But streaming-only is not a problem. It's no different than when they jumped to cable-only by giving ESPN games and similar "warnings" about treading lightly were raised. Same as when they made the NFL Network host a few exclusive games.

Every time, a generation says "be careful" and the younger generation tunes in even more.

I fully realize i'm no longer part of their targeted demo. They are doing fantastic, right now. It has taken ESPN a decade plus to get Monday night Football in front of as many eyes as it once had despite many more tv's devices and people to broadcast to. In fact it wasn't until they expanded where they showed the game they started to recover from when they took it over. The majority of NFL fans enjoy the NFL without ever watching the NFL network. Exposure is better for the league than limitation, short term and long term. Fantasy and gambling won't carry the league too far when the chips are down. Those fans are pretty fickle and not very loyal.

[YoHoChecko]

Fantasy and gambling won't carry the league too far when the chips are down.

Yeah this is where we differ. I think it will. It's massively expanding interest right now. Every year in my own extended circles I watch people who didn't care about football "discover" how much fun it is, mostly because of fantasy and gambling. Sure, 70% of those new fans might fall off. But consistently getting growth while already at the top is QUITE a feat.

There's obviously room for any champion to fall from grace and I have several ideas about what needs to happen to ensure the long-term success of the league (but I also have no stake in that so who cares). But streaming-only games are not going to kill the golden goose. That's not the problem. Streaming services NEED the NFL. Live content is so rare these days and the NFL is the best live content money can buy. The need puts the league in such a strong negotiating position that every streaming only game is going to be more than worth any loss of eyeballs or resentment it may cause (and it doesn't seem to be causing a lack of eyeballs yet)

[BSA]

Yeah that is a non-starter. The NFL would lose buckets of money by taking full weeks off. That's like an opening negotiating ask by a players' union but it runs the risk of being so far out that it doesn't even merit a counter-offer. That's a proposition that solves only one party's problems and not only fails to address the other party, but harms them. Negotiating non-starter. Dead end. That's the kind of ask that leads to a strike, not to a new collective bargaining agreement.

I don't disagree with your comments- but I will say this: Its $%@# pathetic that player health gets lip service from the fat ass old owners, but the reality is that setting a schedule that enhances player health is considered an absurd, non-starter & fightin words.

The schedule produced by an NFL MD with 3 decades in the game is summarily tossed out because we need to enrich 31 billionaires even more ?

Dear NFL owners:

[go pak go]

Fantasy and gambling won't carry the league too far when the chips are down. Those fans are pretty fickle and not very loyal.

Fantasy has carried the explosive growth for 15 years.

Gambling will do the same and more.

I think Fantasty and Gambling are part of the reason I don't like the product as much becaues I am a game purist and don't partake in the fantasy games. But to the casual fan this is everything. Fantasy and Gambling has been and will likely always be the reason that live sports will forever dominate the entertainment world. And it's only going to get even more valuable because there just aren't any other live entertainment events out there.

Take NASCAR as an example. They used to have full tracks each week with over 100,000 fans for both the premier event and Busch Series. Now they limit capacity to under 40,000 at a lot of tracks to avoid the TV showing the track is only 30% full. Popularity has plummeted. All the B2C companies have exited as sponsors (Home Depot, Lowes, M&Ms, Pepsi, Holiday Inn, Kellogg's, General Mills, etc.) because nobody is watching. A sport that used to get over 15 million views a race now struggles to get 2 million views.

And yet...their new TV deals are signifincatly larger (I mean 2 fold, 2 fold, 4 fold, etc) than they were 15 years ago and it is all because there just isn't any options for TV and streaming platforms to offer live events anymore. Sports is all there is.

[YoHoChecko]

Yeah that is a non-starter. The NFL would lose buckets of money by taking full weeks off. That's like an opening negotiating ask by a players' union but it runs the risk of being so far out that it doesn't even merit a counter-offer. That's a proposition that solves only one party's problems and not only fails to address the other party, but harms them. Negotiating non-starter. Dead end. That's the kind of ask that leads to a strike, not to a new collective bargaining agreement.

I don't disagree with your comments- but I will say this: Its $%@# pathetic that player health gets lip service from the fat ass old owners, but the reality is that setting a schedule that enhances player health is considered an absurd, non-starter & fightin words.

The schedule produced by an NFL MD with 3 decades in the game is summarily tossed out because we need to enrich 31 billionaires even more ?

I hear you, really. But I think player safety is so much more complicated than "players vs. owners." Most of the safety initiatives the owners have added to the NFL rules are opposed by players and/or coaches. The restrictions and enhanced punishments for vicious hits are routinely the target of vitriol from player comments and certain coaches (usually defensive-minded). "How can we even play the game?" they say.

Practice restrictions are delightful for players but coaches hate them.

The scandal around keeping concussion data secret for so long that was the subject of a lot of righteous anger toward the league when the cover-up was discovered... but it was completely with the complicity of the NFLPA and Gene Upshaw.

Not to mention that every time safety measures are on the negotiating table, the players tend to negotiate larger shares of revenue at the expense of negotiating better safety or post-career health care (last negotiation finally got a lot more for the latter)

Players claim that the reason they don't want 18 games is player safety; but then they fight changes to the game itself that make it safer. Owners claim they change the rules for player safety, but then they force these short weeks on players that run counter to it. Neither side is consistent or in the right. You can talk about the owners choosing money over safety, but the players, through their negotiations, make the same decision about their own safety time and again.

There's a lot that needs to improve about player safety, but it is not as clean and clear as "the owners are screwing the players." The players use their negotiating power to enhance their dollar share, too, rather than enhance safety, when push comes to shove.

[musclestang]

Fantasy and gambling won't carry the league too far when the chips are down.

Yeah this is where we differ. I think it will. It's massively expanding interest right now. Every year in my own extended circles I watch people who didn't care about football "discover" how much fun it is, mostly because of fantasy and gambling. Sure, 70% of those new fans might fall off. But consistently getting growth while already at the top is QUITE a feat.

There's obviously room for any champion to fall from grace and I have several ideas about what needs to happen to ensure the long-term success of the league (but I also have no stake in that so who cares). But streaming-only games are not going to kill the golden goose. That's not the problem. Streaming services NEED the NFL. Live content is so rare these days and the NFL is the best live content money can buy. The need puts the league in such a strong negotiating position that every streaming only game is going to be more than worth any loss of eyeballs or resentment it may cause (and it doesn't seem to be causing a lack of eyeballs yet)

it is massive, right now. It's like youth sports. It's going to kill youth sports in the end. It's not built on the right stuff. It's not built on love of game, it's exciting because it's new and gambling, and though that has been around forever, it's popular activity of the day waxes and wanes all over the place.

[Pckfn23]

The downfall of the NFL has been predict for 2 decades now...

[YoHoChecko]

The downfall of the NFL has been predict for 2 decades now...

It WILL be interesting to see what happens as the flag football and 7 on 7 generation becomes the majority of the guys filling the league. Youth contact is definitely on the decline, and OL play might suffer, which damages the game (and may already be happening).

I think the league will continue to adapt and thrive, but I am curious to see what happens and how.

[BSA]

The players use their negotiating power to enhance their dollar share, too, rather than enhance safety, when push comes to shove.

Excellent post above.
One point of clarification on the NFL players and NFLPA. The veteran players vote one way, the youngsters vote another.

There are vastly more youngsters on rookie deals - and many of them won't see a 2nd contract. So they always vote for mo' money now and don't care about longevity. And the owners figured this part out when negotiating- the sheer number of players with a short- term $$$ view outweighs the number players with a long-term health point of view. So they pander to those points

The NFLPA decisions/negotiations with regard to player health are being decided by the least-qualified "voters"

I'll also note that player health is a slightly different topic than player safety ( individual brutal hits in a game.)
Its more about # rest days between games and number of games/season. Wear & tear vs game day injuries.

None of the players wants to play a Thurs game, but some of the players want the added bump in their paycheck
.

[Pckfn23]

The downfall of the NFL has been predict for 2 decades now...

It WILL be interesting to see what happens as the flag football and 7 on 7 generation becomes the majority of the guys filling the league. Youth contact is definitely on the decline, and OL play might suffer, which damages the game (and may already be happening).

I think the league will continue to adapt and thrive, but I am curious to see what happens and how.

Eleven-player football remained the most popular boys sport with the total climbing back over one million participants. The total of 1,028,761 participants marks an increase of 54,969 and 5.6 percent from the previous year. Not only did 11-player football top the one million mark, this year’s increase was the first in the sport since 2013 and only the second increase since the all-time high of 1,112,303 in 2008-09.

https://www.wissports.net/news_article/show/1282862

I wouldn't be so sure it is on the decline. Those numbers in the midst of a shrinking youth demographic as a whole seems to point to football amongst high schoolers being as popular as ever.

7 on 7 is basically AAU for football. Don't get me started on "non-profit" youth sports...

[YoHoChecko]

I wouldn't be so sure it is on the decline. Those numbers in the midst of a shrinking youth demographic as a whole seems to point to football amongst high schoolers being as popular as ever.

From the article you linked:

" Not only did 11-player football top the one million mark, this year’s increase was the first in the sport since 2013 and only the second increase since the all-time high of 1,112,303 in 2008-09"

Two years of increase amidst 15 years of data does, indeed, point to a decline.

[YoHoChecko]

The players use their negotiating power to enhance their dollar share, too, rather than enhance safety, when push comes to shove.

Excellent post above.
One point of clarification on the NFL players and NFLPA. The veteran players vote one way, the youngsters vote another.

There are vastly more youngsters on rookie deals - and many of them won't see a 2nd contract. So they always vote for mo' money now and don't care about longevity. And the owners figured this part out when negotiating- the sheer number of players with a short- term $$$ view outweighs the number players with a long-term health point of view. So they pander to those points

The NFLPA decisions/negotiations with regard to player health are being decided by the least-qualified "voters"

I'll also note that player health is a slightly different topic than player safety ( individual brutal hits in a game.)
Its more about # rest days between games and number of games/season. Wear & tear vs game day injuries.

None of the players wants to play a Thurs game, but some of the players want the added bump in their paycheck
.

Yeah, the caveat on the young player/old player is that expanding the pie typically benefits the superstars and hurts the mid-level contract guys; guys who are borderline not getting second contracts because they can be replaced more cheaply. There are elements (vet minimum contracts counting less against the cap than the dollars they are paid, for instance), and the minimum levels did get a bump this round, as well, so maybe it's changing. But typically, if you don't implement a maximum individual contract level (likely as a cap percentage), then expanding the player pie will continue to concentrate the benefits to the league's elite players rather than its lower-middle class.

It will be very interesting to see how negotiating changes in a more union-friendly national culture, which we have entered over the past 4-6 years by almost any measure. But I don't want to steer this away from football politics to politic politics. But the asks might be different from the younger generation of player leadership than it has been in quite some time.

[Pckfn23]

I wouldn't be so sure it is on the decline. Those numbers in the midst of a shrinking youth demographic as a whole seems to point to football amongst high schoolers being as popular as ever.

From the article you linked:

" Not only did 11-player football top the one million mark, this year’s increase was the first in the sport since 2013 and only the second increase since the all-time high of 1,112,303 in 2008-09"

Two years of increase amidst 15 years of data does, indeed, point to a decline.

Like I said, you have to take it relative to the shrinking youth population:

Between 2000 and 2020, the number of children age 17 and younger decreased 60%

The popularity of contact football is not declining, the number of children is. In other words kids/parents aren't shying away from contact football in favor of flag football.

[musclestang]

The downfall of the NFL has been predict for 2 decades now...

I’m not predicting its downfall tomorrow.

But I have seen things come and go. And I’ve seen football spring off a solid foundation and grow and grow and grow. I didn’t see signs 20 years ago of failing.

I see things today that could take things sideways and downhill if they’re not careful moving forward.

[musclestang]

I wouldn't be so sure it is on the decline. Those numbers in the midst of a shrinking youth demographic as a whole seems to point to football amongst high schoolers being as popular as ever.

From the article you linked:

" Not only did 11-player football top the one million mark, this year’s increase was the first in the sport since 2013 and only the second increase since the all-time high of 1,112,303 in 2008-09"

Two years of increase amidst 15 years of data does, indeed, point to a decline.

Like I said, you have to take it relative to the shrinking youth population:

Between 2000 and 2020, the number of children age 17 and younger decreased 60%

The popularity of contact football is not declining, the number of children is. In other words kids/parents aren't shying away from contact football in favor of flag football.

I started in my career field in 2003. In that time I’ve seen a drastic shift in parents who want their kids to play football. I’ve also seen a massive shift in parents who will and have forbade their kids from playing football.

School enrollments are up all over here and I can think of 2 schools who have total middle school numbers out for football that would be common for a single grade in the middle school.

[BF004]

We should find a way to trade for Rome Odunze, he should be putting up 80/1200/10 on a decent team already. Convince the bares he’s a bust.

[Pckfn23]

From the article you linked:

" Not only did 11-player football top the one million mark, this year’s increase was the first in the sport since 2013 and only the second increase since the all-time high of 1,112,303 in 2008-09"

Two years of increase amidst 15 years of data does, indeed, point to a decline.

Like I said, you have to take it relative to the shrinking youth population:

Between 2000 and 2020, the number of children age 17 and younger decreased 60%

The popularity of contact football is not declining, the number of children is. In other words kids/parents aren't shying away from contact football in favor of flag football.

I started in my career field in 2003. In that time I’ve seen a drastic shift in parents who want their kids to play football. I’ve also seen a massive shift in parents who will and have forbade their kids from playing football.

School enrollments are up all over here and I can think of 2 schools who have total middle school numbers out for football that would be common for a single grade in the middle school.

A single school or district or even area is not a trend for entire states or the nation. The school aged child population is down a decent amount over the last 20 years.

The number of kids in football is proportionally unchanged.

There was talk at the outset of the concussion research that it would kill football and loads of parents wouldn't want their kids in football. That is how it remained, just talk.

I started coaching football almost 20 years ago had have seen nothing like you described happening in WI or MN.

[APB]

Sad news.

Always liked Greg as a broadcaster and play-by-play announcer. Much more likable than his brother.

[musclestang]

A single school or district or even area is not a trend for entire states or the nation. The school aged child population is down a decent amount over the last 20 years.

The number of kids in football is proportionally unchanged.

There was talk at the outset of the concussion research that it would kill football and loads of parents wouldn't want their kids in football. That is how it remained, just talk.

I started coaching football almost 20 years ago had have seen nothing like you described happening in WI or MN.

I don't coach, I take care of athletes, parents and coaches. They talk about it. I have friends working districts in FL, IN, WI a couple at the pro level Saints, and another UW Madison. We talk about it too. It's not just concussions, in fact that isn't talked about hardly at all by parents anymore unless their child actually has one.

it's not one district and it's not just numbers of players. Outside of some bigger programs, stands across the state were filled with football fans on a Friday night 20 years ago. Even the tiny districts with 3-400 kids in total high school enrollment. Many of them don't even have a team any more and go check out a homecoming game where 20-30 years ago was standing room only with smaller kids playing their own football games around the open spaces. Go today and see some parents a a few handfuls of students. Interest is down in many places and it's not just smaller enrollments.

We went back for a 30- year reunion on just such a night. Homecoming and it was going to decide the conference title. Beautiful night. Back in the day, we were never ever better than a .500 team. One year in 4 we had a chance to make the playoffs and lost on a 3 way tie coin flip and our stands were always packed and then some. On this night with a team that actually made it to state semi finals for first time in school history against a conference rival? if we hadn't have been having a reunion there i'm not sure the spectators would have reached 150 total across both schools. I couldn't believe it.

The big schools still bring them in with 10x's the enrollment, maybe they don't notice as much. But unless they've grown substantially, They aren't covering the losses at the rest. It doesn't have to be happening everywhere, but it is happening on more than just a limited scale.

Just for fun I did some looking to see because I have nothing to go buy other than my conversations and what I see, but it seems to back it up.

This article said we've had a 25% drop in participation from 09-19. I'd imagine that spiked even more since Covid as enrollments also had their sharpets declines then too.

https://www.wpr.org/sports/wisconsin-sa ... g-creative

According to this from 09-present, which includes covid drop offs not shown in above data, Districts have lost about 8% of enrollments over that time. But that's public school data, many of those kids went to private instead or charter. Many private still have football programs so not all enrollments lost to public schools should automatically be assumed to not participate in football because of that reason. But even if, 8% decrease, doesn't explain a 25% drop

https://www.badgerinstitute.org/numbers ... nrollment/

[Yoop]

it seems that the drop off is with the younger ages kids, 70% drop out of school sports by the time they enter 8th grade, look at the #2 reason, sports simply are not as much fun as they use to be

What percentage of high school football players get CTE?
But the frequency of these symptoms didn't differ between those with and without CTE. “This study clearly shows that the pathology of CTE starts early,” McKee says. “The fact that over 40% of young contact and collision sport athletes in the UNITE Brain Bank have CTE is remarkable.”Sep 12, 2023

another blip from google

5 Huge Problems with Youth Sports in the US
#5: Kids Are Quitting Too Soon. Research shows that 50% of kids quit youth sports by age 11 and that 70% quit by age 13. ...
#4: Early Specialization Pressure. ...
#3: It's Too Expensive. ...
#2: Too Much Stress, Not Enough Fun. ...
#1: The Wrong Goals. ...
How do we fix these problems?
Jan 22, 2020