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We have very few active threads and this content has been slipping into them, and I thought it might be more approachable to sort of have a repository for things like...
our odds of making the Super Bowl.
The matchups against teams we might face on the way.
It seems to fit neither in the game threads nor the general news threads, but it's taken place in both.
So I figured it's late enough in the season to get this going.
Here is the FPI (ESPN/538/Elo-based football power index) odds for the ten teams most likely to win the Super Bowl
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Here's the vastly different Football Outsiders top-ten odds:
I actually texted a friend saying I'd rather face the Chiefs without Hill than the Chiefs without Mahomes.
Last year when we beat the Chiefs with Matt Moore, we played defense in a way that infuriated everyone--holding safeties back, passively avoiding big plays. We did that because of Tyreek Hill. You can't leave him single covered for a single play. It's an absurd field-tilting effect.
Mahomes is a god. But if we can cover his receivers, we can hold up.
yep, and the thing is both, that you designate to cover Hill, have to be very good, other wise he'll have those two defenders running into each other, I saw him do it the couple times I watched him this year, guy has great body control, I agree if you can limit Hill, get a good pass rush going, and I think our defense would fare ok, I'd use Jaire and Savage or the next best CB not named King.
I actually wouldn’t be that concerned with Hill. Obviously it’s a tough cover for Alexander but it’s a least a close matchup in terms of athleticism and physicality.
The concern is Kelce for me. I’m not sure how we cover him.
Obviously Hill is a good player. I’m not saying he’s not. I just think our strength is our secondary in pass coverage. We dont have the linebackers to cover Kelce. I’ll trust Alexander in an all pro year over Kirksey, Martin, Amos, or Greene covering Kelce one on one.
That's the thing. You literally can't go "one on one" in this game. You HAVE to keep your safeties back. You have to play defense differently. And that's because of Hill.
If you mess up with Kelce, he'll make you pay, certainly.
If you mess up with Hill, he'll make you pay with a TD from anywhere on the field.
Same. I actually think Tyreek Hill is more important to that offense than Mahomes. I actually think that Mahomes is largely a product of his supporting cast plus Andy Reid. However, without all that he would still be a top 10 or even top 5 QB. He just wouldn't be the legend that he is currently.
I can't talk myself into feeling like the Saints should be considered this big of a favorite in the NFC right now.
I can't either, and I'm surprised it's that dramatic (esp. Football Outsiders)
But then again, I'm surprised FPI is so low on the Rams.
Yeah, I think NO/GB/LAR should be pretty close right now (maybe give a slight edge to NO since they are currently leading for HFA). I think those are the three best teams in the NFC right now though; gonna be interesting to watch it unfold since NO/LAR are both strong defensive teams with good offenses, and the Packers are an elite offense with an average defense.
I'm not sure that I trust Goff or Brees in the playoffs, but I almost certainly don't trust our defense either.
Yeah now way should the probability of the Saints be 3 times the probability of the Packers.
I think the Rams should be favored between them over SEA but I wouldn't be surprised one bit if the Hawks win the division. Their schedule is easier than the Rams and they can easily split the series in Seattle to win the division. I just think the Giants knocking off the Hawks was so huge for the Packers chances at the top seed.
I have been watching a lot of Saints games because of focus on the NFC top seed.
Their defense is legit. I didn't think they were for a long time but they are a top defense in this league. Are they an historic defense like the 49ers were last year or the legion of boom was in 2013/2014?....I don't think they are.
Generally Rodgers struggles vs the really high end defenses with the exception of the Falcons 2016 defense stopping us pretty good. That being said, the Saints offense also doesn't petrify me. They have two elite weapons like the Packers do at the WR and RB spot. Taysom Hill actually throws the ball better than I think the public gave credit for. He put out some good balls vs Atlanta. Brees will likely be your guy in January though which means we probably don't have to worry as much getting beat over the top.
I simply don't think the Saints can keep up with the Packers if Rodgers, Adams and Jones are rolling.
The Rams on the other hand have a younger QB, albiet not as football wise, but younger and they can move the ball a lot faster down the field. Their defense is also legit. Let's just say I really hope we have Corey Linsley at full strength by the time we play Aaron Donald.
I think my ultimate hope is the Rams take an early exit because I think they are the toughest matchup vs us.
It will be also be interesting if we hope to play a Giants team in the divisional round or another team in the divisional round.
I have been watching a lot of Saints games because of focus on the NFC top seed.
Their defense is legit. I didn't think they were for a long time but they are a top defense in this league. Are they an historic defense like the 49ers were last year or the legion of boom was in 2013/2014?....I don't think they are.
Do you think their defense is better now than it was in week 3?
I have been watching a lot of Saints games because of focus on the NFC top seed.
Their defense is legit. I didn't think they were for a long time but they are a top defense in this league. Are they an historic defense like the 49ers were last year or the legion of boom was in 2013/2014?....I don't think they are.
Do you think their defense is better now than it was in week 3?
I do and it is primarily because Cameron Jordan and Damario Davis are better than they were in Week 3.
Damario Davis is playing out of his absolute freaking mind. He is the best inside linebacker in the league this year. I mean he is doing what the two Bucs ILBs did to us on a week in and week out basis. I haven't seen Malcom Jenkins light teams like he did in week 3. But that front 7 of the Saints is clearly dominating the games they are playing in.
Their secondary is incredibly aggressive. They tow the line and honestly get away with a lot of stuff. You need physical players to beat that and maybe that is why Lazard had the success he had.
I'm really curious to see how the Saints respond at KC. They definitely seem to be a dome team who plays in only warm games. So it will be interesting to see if their energy is the same outdoors.
I can't talk myself into feeling like the Saints should be considered this big of a favorite in the NFC right now.
I can't either, and I'm surprised it's that dramatic (esp. Football Outsiders)
But then again, I'm surprised FPI is so low on the Rams.
Seems to be dependent on the #1 seed. I would think we would flip odds if we end up with it. Maybe historical data supports that, but I think we have seen by now, home field isn't what it once was for this season.
Is there any advantage to home field so far this season? I mean across the league.
I don't know what the numbers say, but obviously sleep in your own bed, avoid air travel and hotels, etc. Routine and comfort are always the advantage there.
I could keep going back, but last year looks like a big anomaly, and this year there is essentially no home field advantage.
2897-2197 is the home team record the last 20 years before this year.
Palmy - "Very few have the ability to truly excel regardless of system. For many the system is the difference between being just a guy or an NFL starter. Fact is, everyone is talented at this level."
The bye is the much bigger aspect than the homefield, I think, when making these odds.
Even if you're 75% likely to win your first game, applying that extra percentage to the odds of winning the next couple games will have a bit of an exponential impact
Home team in the Divisional Round wins 70% of the time the last 20 years.
Wild Card Round the home team wins 56.3%.
Championship Round the home team wins 67.5%.
Palmy - "Very few have the ability to truly excel regardless of system. For many the system is the difference between being just a guy or an NFL starter. Fact is, everyone is talented at this level."
I have been watching a lot of Saints games because of focus on the NFC top seed.
Their defense is legit. I didn't think they were for a long time but they are a top defense in this league. Are they an historic defense like the 49ers were last year or the legion of boom was in 2013/2014?....I don't think they are.
Do you think their defense is better now than it was in week 3?
I do and it is primarily because Cameron Jordan and Damario Davis are better than they were in Week 3.
Damario Davis is playing out of his absolute freaking mind. He is the best inside linebacker in the league this year. I mean he is doing what the two Bucs ILBs did to us on a week in and week out basis. I haven't seen Malcom Jenkins light teams like he did in week 3. But that front 7 of the Saints is clearly dominating the games they are playing in.
Their secondary is incredibly aggressive. They tow the line and honestly get away with a lot of stuff. You need physical players to beat that and maybe that is why Lazard had the success he had.
I'm really curious to see how the Saints respond at KC. They definitely seem to be a dome team who plays in only warm games. So it will be interesting to see if their energy is the same outdoors.
this will show how little I know of other teams rosters, however prior to reading this post of yours, my first thought concerning WHO Rodgers struggles against is teams with excellent lbers, they stop the run and cover the short zones forcing Rodgers to hold the ball longer, Lafluer has been a lot better at figuring out better matchups to beat them, but we are short on ammunition, we need ERvin back, and have to hope Austin still has some gas in the tank, course Jones and Williams will help to, but every time we struggle it's because of superior ILB talent.
Their position coach is former DB, Aaron Glenn, and The Athletic has a great article on him - saying he is a really really good coach and will be a HC someday soon. Bill Parcells is one of his mentors and Parcells was busting his chops for losing to the Packers. Bill told him he has to work on the eye discipline for his DBs and that the Packers offense gave his crew too much eye candy.
Their position coach is former DB, Aaron Glenn, and The Athletic has a great article on him - saying he is a really really good coach and will be a HC someday soon. Bill Parcells is one of his mentors and Parcells was busting his chops for losing to the Packers. Bill told him he has to work on the eye discipline for his DBs and that the Packers offense gave his crew too much eye candy.
Probably has to be a DC... somewhere before he can be a head coach....
I'm a little bitter about letting Patrick Graham get away. He really wowed me in his year here as LB coach, but reasonably left to join Flores' staff as DC when he had the chance, and now is the architect of the Giants' D that has allowed that team a winning streak despite not having an offense.
Just names to consider for later; I don't get much into whether or not anyone needs to be replaced in the midst of good seasons.
Probably has to be a DC... somewhere before he can be a head coach....
Perfect comment because in the article, Aaron Glenn said he wanted to get into coaching when he retired from the league
And Parcells told him: " Nope. You have to go and learn how to be a scout first, then you can coach."
All things in their time. But GB is likely to face that secondary again in the playoffs unless somebody else knocks them out, like in 2019
It's pretty unreal how similar the Packers and Chiefs are.
We know Rodgers and Mahomes are the 2 front-runners for MVP (and are the two most talented QBs known to man). Let's take a look.
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So that's neck and neck
Let's look at the advanced analytics from Football Outsiders.
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I think people look more critically at their own team than others around the league. The Packers beat the Saints. They perform at nearly identical levels as the Chiefs.
We have one of the best teams in the league. With solid Super Bowl championship probability
