End of Season Standing

[YoHoChecko]

So now that the regular season has ended, I thought it'd be fun to use the bye week to sort of look back and see how we stand in various categories.

We've already mentioned, elsewhere, the basics:

Offense: 5th in yards, 1st in points

Defense: 9th in yards, 13th in points

Let's go a little deeper:

DVOA:

Total: 3rd
- weighted: 4th (puts more emphasis on more recent performances and less on earlier season results)

Offense: 1st
- weighted: 1st
- passing: 1st
- rushing: 5th

Defense: 17th
- weighted: 14th
- passing: 15th
- rushing: 18th

Special Teams: 25th

Drive stats

Offense:
- 2nd in yards per drive (40.93)
- 1st in points per drive (3.22)

Defense:
- 14th in yards allowed per drive (34.25)
- 17th in points allowed per drive (2.22)

[YoHoChecko]

3rd Downs

Offense:
- 2nd in conversion rate
- fewest 3rd downs in the league

Defense:
- 10th in conversion rate allowed
- fewest 3rd downs allowed in the league


Number of 3rd downs can be good or bad, as an isolated stat. If you're stopping a lot of drives on defense, you will face fewer third downs because they have fewer sustained drives. But also, if you're really bad on defense, you let them convert a lot on 1st and 2nd down. Combined with our drive stats, I'd say defensively, having the fewest 3rd downs allowed is a combination of our good and our bad. We either get a stop or allow easy drives.

Based on drive stats on offense, attempting the fewest 3rd downs means we're converting a ton of first downs before we even get to 3rd down. Good stuff.

[YoHoChecko]

Turnovers

7th in turnover margin: +7
26th in takeaways: 18
1st in giveaways: 11

[YoHoChecko]

We've already mentioned, elsewhere, the basics:

Offense: 5th in yards, 1st in points

Defense: 9th in yards, 13th in points

Further breakdown of the non-advanced stats:

Offense: 5th in yards, 1st in points:
- rushing: 8th in yards/game, 7th in yards per carry
- passing: 9th in yards per game, 3rd in yards per play

Defense: 9th in yards, 13th in points
- rushing: 13th in yards allowed per game, 21st in yards per carry
- passing: 7th in yards allowed, 12th in yards per play

[go pak go]

Thank you for this.

Honestly it spells out how it looks.

Our offense is ridiculously efficient and our defense is frustrating to watch. The expectation I believe needs to be 30 points from the offense. There are likely opponents such as Washington, Chicago or even the Rams where this could be dropped to say 24 points...but by and large I believe our formula is 1 turnover or less and 30 points.

Our defense is playing better. The Titans game was definitely positive and limiting the Bears to 13 points helped too.

I think we all kind of see this team not being like the 2019 Chiefs though. We can't get down by more than two scores. Our team is not built that way.

What we have been able to hang our hat on is our offense generally gets at least 10 points its first two drives. Our offense is also amazing in the 2nd quarter and then we usually crack in the 3rd quarter only to seal the game in the 4th quarter.

Our exceptions to this was Tampa where we allowed 28 points in the 2nd quarter (lost huge) and didn't do enough in the 4th quarter to MN and IND to escape with the win.

[YoHoChecko]

DVOA:

Total: 3rd
- weighted: 4th (puts more emphasis on more recent performances and less on earlier season results)

Also, worth pointing out that we did not get less efficient in recent weeks; our weighted DVOA is higher than our full-season DVOA. But our rank drops a bit because the Bills' weighted DVOA is awesome. So we've been improved lately, but the Bills just improved more.

[Packfntk]

Offense- Insane
Defense- Doing just enough

[YoHoChecko]

Offense- Insane
Defense- Doing just enough

Yes.

I do think it is worth noting that it is a great offense and a mediocre/average defense, rather than a great offense and a bad defense.

[Packfntk]

Right. This defense needs a ball hawk. We need more turnovers in a bad way. Also need to get to the QB more often. But overall, this defense is far from bad. They bend, a lot. But they don't completely break often. Gary needs to be on the field even more.

[go pak go]

Offense- Insane
Defense- Doing just enough

Yes.

I do think it is worth noting that it is a great offense and a mediocre/average defense, rather than a great offense and a bad defense.

Yeah. Our defense is far better than 2011. Our defense is nowhere near the level of any of our championship teams. Our defense is also starting to rise at the proper time like it did in 2014.

Our defense has the ability and the playmakers to make those "heroic" moments in January.

But these next three games come down to our offense and our MVP. If there is any three game stretch where we need reliable production from 12, 33, and 17....this is it.

[Packfntk]

[Pckfn23]

Over the final 6 weeks of the season the Packers defense ranked 6th in both points allowed and total yards. If we back that up to the final 8 games it is 9th in points allowed and 7th in total yards.

This is better than an average or mediocre defense. This is a good defense.

[BF004]

Over the final 6 weeks of the season the Packers defense ranked 6th in both points allowed and total yards. If we back that up to the final 8 games it is 9th in points allowed and 7th in total yards.

This is better than an average or mediocre defense. This is a good defense.

5th defense in EPA/play the last 9 weeks (8 games for us).

Weaker schedule to end than we started with, but I''ll take it. I would put us top 10 defense in the league. Where I kind of felt was necessary to get to have a very real shot.

[YoHoChecko]

5th defense in EPA/play the last 9 weeks (8 games for us).

Weaker schedule to end than we started with, but I''ll take it. I would put us top 10 defense in the league. Where I kind of felt was necessary to get to have a very real shot.

Oh that's interesting; Post some more EPA and EPA/play stats!

The conventional ones already basically put as as a top ten D, for the whole season (13th in scoring but literally 1 TD allowed away from 9th and enough non-D points to feel like we're right there)

But DVOA, even weighting recent success more heavily, still has us around the middle of the pack.

I'd love to have multiple sets of analytics in here

[BF004]

[kyle.mccarroll]

Over the final 6 weeks of the season the Packers defense ranked 6th in both points allowed and total yards. If we back that up to the final 8 games it is 9th in points allowed and 7th in total yards.

This is better than an average or mediocre defense. This is a good defense.

5th defense in EPA/play the last 9 weeks (8 games for us).

Weaker schedule to end than we started with, but I''ll take it. I would put us top 10 defense in the league. Where I kind of felt was necessary to get to have a very real shot.

Yeah, it's hard for me to get on board with 13 defenses playing better than us right now. I don't think we are a top 5 defense, but top ten sounds about right.

Also, It's interesting because I feel like [mention]go pak go[/mention] has been one of the most positive people on the board this season, at least for our defense. But something in the last few weeks has taken the wind out of your sails. Maybe the Bak injury? I dunno, just feels like you do not believe in this defense at all. Or maybe I'm misinterpreting it?

[go pak go]

Over the final 6 weeks of the season the Packers defense ranked 6th in both points allowed and total yards. If we back that up to the final 8 games it is 9th in points allowed and 7th in total yards.

This is better than an average or mediocre defense. This is a good defense.

5th defense in EPA/play the last 9 weeks (8 games for us).

Weaker schedule to end than we started with, but I''ll take it. I would put us top 10 defense in the league. Where I kind of felt was necessary to get to have a very real shot.

Yeah, it's hard for me to get on board with 13 defenses playing better than us right now. I don't think we are a top 5 defense, but top ten sounds about right.

Also, It's interesting because I feel like @go pak go has been one of the most positive people on the board this season, at least for our defense. But something in the last few weeks has taken the wind out of your sails. Maybe the Bak injury? I dunno, just feels like you do not believe in this defense at all. Or maybe I'm misinterpreting it?

I think top 10 is fair. This defense is hard to judge to be quite honest. I really, really wanted to see a game or two of holding an opponent under 10 and we never did that. I thought we had the ability to do that in December vs weaker opponents. However, I think the showing we did vs TEN should give us a lot of confidence. They certainly didn't deteriorate that confidence vs Chicago which is good.

I have learned to temper my expectations entering January because of being let down so often. I also believe for us to achieve what we want to achieve, we will need to rely on who we are which is a top end offense. Our top end offensive playmakers need to consistently bring it these 3 last games. Or at the very least, two of our 3 top 3 offensive playmakers need to bring it.

So yeah I think we have a good shot. I think we have the best shot in the NFC and I think we can hang with anyone in the AFC. But I also think we can lay a dumper. It's not likely but that shot is there.

2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2019 were all seasons that our offense did not live up to its bargain in January and therefore we ended up losing. None of those years did our offense surpass 24 points in its last game. And this year offenses seem to have about a touchdown more per game than historical performance.

And I do think the Bak injury really hurts; particularly if we are in a game where Rodgers needs to sit in the pocket and sling it. Bak's injury just makes us have less ability IMO to overcome shortfalls if they occur.

So yeah. I think need to expect to put up 30 these last 3 games. And we should expect that. That is the makeup of our team.

[Packfntk]

I think top 10 is fair. This defense is hard to judge to be quite honest. I really, really wanted to see a game or two of holding an opponent under 10 and we never did that. I thought we had the ability to do that in December vs weaker opponents. However, I think the showing we did vs TEN should give us a lot of confidence. They certainly didn't deteriorate that confidence vs Chicago which is good.

Under 10 is hard in today's NFL. Teams scored less than 10, 32 times this year (out of 512 possible scores). With the rules the way they are, it simply doesn't happen often. If you hold a team to 20 points or less in today's NFL, you should win. The Packers did that 8 times this year. The other thing to take into consideration is the Packers offense. We blasted so many points and scored so many TD's, that our D was on the field a lot, and teams had to move the ball.

There is definitely room for improvement, but the D is not bad. You are right about the Tennessee game being promising. That is a good offense that we basically would not let in the game.

[go pak go]

I think top 10 is fair. This defense is hard to judge to be quite honest. I really, really wanted to see a game or two of holding an opponent under 10 and we never did that. I thought we had the ability to do that in December vs weaker opponents. However, I think the showing we did vs TEN should give us a lot of confidence. They certainly didn't deteriorate that confidence vs Chicago which is good.

Under 10 is hard in today's NFL. Teams scored less than 10, 32 times this year (out of 512 possible scores). With the rules the way they are, it simply doesn't happen often. If you hold a team to 20 points or less in today's NFL, you should win. The Packers did that 8 times this year. The other thing to take into consideration is the Packers offense. We blasted so many points and scored so many TD's, that our D was on the field a lot, and teams had to move the ball.

There is definitely room for improvement, but the D is not bad. You are right about the Tennessee game being promising. That is a good offense that we basically would not let in the game.

I actually think because our offense is so good at hanging onto the ball that our defense has actually been helped in that line this year.

And I get that holding teams under 10 is hard. But there are also defenses in the NFC playoffs who can do it and have done it. The Saints. The Rams. The Bucs. All these defenses did it multiple times this year to some decent offenses too. Or least teams that we also played.

Again. I think top 10 is fair for our defense when they are playing well. But there is also a clear tier above us as far as defense is concerned and we will be playing 1 possibly two of them this month.

So our offense will need to find a way to put up points vs these units.

[Packfntk]

For sure. I believe we can, and will. That Bucs game, everything that could have went wrong, went wrong. Can't wait to get another crack at them.

Our team is definitely built different than all of those teams you mentioned. All of them have decent offenses, we have a better unit. I think that we can beat any of them, especially in the cold and iced over Lambeau. Would be fantastic to get the Saints here. Drew may not make it through the game, and Taysom would not save them.