RFA Discussion (Split From Wagner/Kirskey Thread)

[NCF]

There are problems with Sternberger. In 2 years he has been active for 18 games. In 2 years he has 12 catches for 114 yards.

Tonyan had 14 for 177 in his first two years. I do think Sternberger will end up a bust and the head injuries are super concerning, but TE's do take time. Maybe more so than any other position on offense.

[Yoop]

There is a problem with Mercedes Lewis. He will be 37 years old in May. So 27 is a problem for Tonyan but 37 is not for Lewis?

There are problems with Sternberger. In 2 years he has been active for 18 games. In 2 years he has 12 catches for 114 yards. In the playoffs, Sternberger was a healthy scratch. And he has dropped too many passes.

There are 2 problems with Deguara. #1 is that he is coming off an ACL. #2 is that he is not a Tight End. He is an H-back. He is only 6'2".

As for Tonyan not being a great athlete
"He is an absolutely insane athlete" ~ Kittle, with whom he works out in the offseason.
Kittle and Tonyan have the same agent. That agent got Kittle 5 years and 75 mil.

you've made a great case for Tonyan, in the end you could very well be right, we tend to look at him as a un drafted, lower ceiling guy that was able to take advantage of Lafluer schemes and the best QB in the league throwing to him, but I think he could play the same under a different coach and QB, he earned his stripes.

Sternberger hasn't shown us much of anything, DEquara is a complete question mark, and Lewis while a good blocker and check down receiver is bound to hit the wall at some point, Tonyan is our best hope for production at the TE position.

every GM has seen his skills, I'am pretty sure we'll see teams ready to offer a 2nd rounder for him

[Pckfn23]

As for Tonyan not being a great athlete
"He is an absolutely insane athlete" ~ Kittle, with whom he works out in the offseason.

Oh, really? His buddy said good things about him. I'm shocked.

I may have sold him short a bit, but he is certainly not a special athlete.

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/robert-tonyan/

I think you sold him short, more than a bit:

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/travis-kelce/

[NCF]

As for Tonyan not being a great athlete
"He is an absolutely insane athlete" ~ Kittle, with whom he works out in the offseason.

Oh, really? His buddy said good things about him. I'm shocked.

I may have sold him short a bit, but he is certainly not a special athlete.

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/robert-tonyan/

I think you sold him short, more than a bit:

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/travis-kelce/

Depends on what specific traits you are looking at, but looking at the SPARQ-x score (which isn't available for Kelce), Tonyan measures in the 51st percentile. Kittle, comparatively, 90th percentile.

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/george-kittle/

[lupedafiasco]

I agree with Pckfn. I think Tonyan is elite or on the cusp of being elite. Rodgers like to spread the ball around (unless it's Davante). If Tonyan were the focal point, he would be in the running for all pro 1st team. I don't think he's the league's top TE, but he's one of only a few names who you could see being on the radar. Especially after Kelce was sort of exposed in the Super Bowl

He was very, very productive last year and very efficient too. What, exactly, would you consider elite about him, though? He's a very average blocker. Given what the TE position is around the league he is a very average athlete. He is an elite try-hard, but so are a lot of guys. Just curious if anyone can actually explain what it is about him that has everyone so terrified of losing him.

Exactly. Like I said he’s a good player but he is not elite. I don’t think anyone in their right mind would put him in the categories or Kelce or Kittle or Waller. A lot of what he got done last year was scheme related. I have no doubt in my mind you could put any athletic TE in that role and they will do the same thing. The Rams have been churning out yards with average TEs for years because of scheme.

[YoHoChecko]

I think the main point here is that Tonyon wasn't undrafted because he's a low-ceiling TE; He was undrafted because he was a small school WR without much speed. He was not evaluated as a TE, nor was he ready to be one at the time of the draft.

Darren Waller (who is both taller and faster than Tonyan, not trying to compare) took like 4 years to make the transition (his suspensions didn't help) and was drafted in, I think, the 6th round. He was 6'6", ran a 4.38 and was drafted in the sixth. Because as a WR, people just didn't see the right traits developing.

But if you have the frame to add weight and the mentality to want to be a great TE, those guys can convert. And Tonyan did. His ceiling was never low. His athleticism for a TE is not a big detriment. The question was could he learn to block, could he add some size without sacrificing athleticism, and would he dedicate himself to these tasks. Those questions seem to have been answered in the affirmative.

But a lot of people seem to have type cast him based on height/weight and draft status as some sort of low-ceiling plodder. And he never was.

[Pckfn23]

Oh, really? His buddy said good things about him. I'm shocked.

I may have sold him short a bit, but he is certainly not a special athlete.

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/robert-tonyan/

I think you sold him short, more than a bit:

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/travis-kelce/

Depends on what specific traits you are looking at, but looking at the SPARQ-x score (which isn't available for Kelce), Tonyan measures in the 51st percentile. Kittle, comparatively, 90th percentile.

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/george-kittle/

And I would bet you that Kelce's SPARQ is close to Tonyan's.

That Kittle is the top of the top for TE athlete's doesn't mean Kelce and Tonyan are not athletic TEs.

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/rob-gronkowski/
I find it weird that the SPARQ-x score and workout metrics tell different stories. Makes me question this site's metric.

[YoHoChecko]

Feeling pretty good about my strong "Kevin King is not good enough to get paid big money" take from week 17, and the subsequent avatar bet that was made

[Yoop]

I think the main point here is that Tonyon wasn't undrafted because he's a low-ceiling TE; He was undrafted because he was a small school WR without much speed. He was not evaluated as a TE, nor was he ready to be one at the time of the draft.

Darren Waller (who is both taller and faster than Tonyan, not trying to compare) took like 4 years to make the transition (his suspensions didn't help) and was drafted in, I think, the 6th round. He was 6'6", ran a 4.38 and was drafted in the sixth. Because as a WR, people just didn't see the right traits developing.

But if you have the frame to add weight and the mentality to want to be a great TE, those guys can convert. And Tonyan did. His ceiling was never low. His athleticism for a TE is not a big detriment. The question was could he learn to block, could he add some size without sacrificing athleticism, and would he dedicate himself to these tasks. Those questions seem to have been answered in the affirmative.

But a lot of people seem to have type cast him based on height/weight and draft status as some sort of low-ceiling plodder. And he never was.

right, low ceiling isn't a good description of Tonyan, I think when ya look at the pay scales of TE's last year, Tonyan is in for a big pay raise and easily worth a 2nd round pick, as I said I don't think he'll be over looked as Te's are in higher demand in todays offenses, he's still young and his apprenticeship is over, he's ready to do what he did last year and more for any team, lis I hope you and others are right and we can keep him.

[Pckfn23]

Feeling pretty good about my strong "Kevin King is not good enough to get paid big money" take from week 17, and the subsequent avatar bet that was made

Said it in the game thread. That game $%@# me!

[texas]

I agree with Pckfn. I think Tonyan is elite or on the cusp of being elite. Rodgers like to spread the ball around (unless it's Davante). If Tonyan were the focal point, he would be in the running for all pro 1st team. I don't think he's the league's top TE, but he's one of only a few names who you could see being on the radar. Especially after Kelce was sort of exposed in the Super Bowl

He was very, very productive last year and very efficient too. What, exactly, would you consider elite about him, though? He's a very average blocker. Given what the TE position is around the league he is a very average athlete. He is an elite try-hard, but so are a lot of guys. Just curious if anyone can actually explain what it is about him that has everyone so terrified of losing him.

Eye Test. I mean just look at him out there. If he's not Elite then he's knocking on Elite's door.

[lupedafiasco]

Half the games this season he had 3 or few receptions. Only once he had more than 80 yards. He never cracked 100 on the year.

Good player. Not elite. He does well for what the system asks of him.

[Drj820]

I’m ñot gonna belittle Tonyan. I think he had a very good year. He Did have very good hands and Rodgers was always looking for him or Adams in the end zone. It’s almost like Rodgers was helping him get paid...but Rodgers also might have just trusted him to catch the ball more than other options.

However, I think he did his part..but he popped bc of scheme near the end zone. Like Lupe said, he didn’t have close to elite production outside of the red zone. Now the red zone is super important, but I do think Lafleur could make several guys look like Tonyan did this year.

I want to keep him, but he’s no “keep at all cost” to me.

[YoHoChecko]

I view Tonyan as a player who may still be ascending, so I'm inclined to pay him to stick around if I can; but I certainly am satisfied with a second round tender and being willing to match if a reasonable offer sheet is signed or let him go for that good compensation if we can't match an offer. Win some, lose some, ya know?

But I definitely think we've jumped a step from we have a good TE who we should keep to "he is considered elite and will be too rich for us."

It may be that we can't afford him if he signs an offer sheet this year or that we can't afford him next year if he has a good or better year--but that has more to do with the fact that we have a top-3 QB contract, the top LT contract, a top-5 DT contract, and will owe Jaire and Davante top-3 contracts at WR and CB next year than Tonyan himself getting some sort of top-3 TE contract (which could happen if he has an Austin Hooper-like contract year or something)

[TheSkeptic]

I view Tonyan as a player who may still be ascending, so I'm inclined to pay him to stick around if I can; but I certainly am satisfied with a second round tender and being willing to match if a reasonable offer sheet is signed or let him go for that good compensation if we can't match an offer. Win some, lose some, ya know?

But I definitely think we've jumped a step from we have a good TE who we should keep to "he is considered elite and will be too rich for us."

It may be that we can't afford him if he signs an offer sheet this year or that we can't afford him next year if he has a good or better year--but that has more to do with the fact that we have a top-3 QB contract, the top LT contract, a top-5 DT contract, and will owe Jaire and Davante top-3 contracts at WR and CB next year than Tonyan himself getting some sort of top-3 TE contract (which could happen if he has an Austin Hooper-like contract year or something)

Correct me if I am wrong. If the Packers put a 2nd round tender on him, they have to pay him just under 4 mil and if someone wants to pay him more then the Packers can match and keep him. But if someone wants him and has the cap they can offer him 5 mil, for example and all the Packers get for an ascending starter who led the league in TD's and many other metrics is a 2nd round pick. If that someone is the Bubs, all the Packers get is the last 2nd round pick in the draft.

But if the Packers put a 1st round tender on him, they have to pay him just under 5 mil. Now if the Bucs want him for 5 mil and the Packers can't match that, at least the Packers get a decent draft pick for him.

So why would the Packers choose to get a 2nd round pick for him when they can get a 1st round pick for him? In either case he is gone and the Packers don't have to pay him anything. For a team like the Bucs that are losing Gronk and need a good TE and have 28 mil in cap space, 5 mil is chump change, they are going to pay him unless they already have a replacement for Gronk that they have confidence in. In that case someone else is likely to pay him.

[lupedafiasco]

I view Tonyan as a player who may still be ascending, so I'm inclined to pay him to stick around if I can; but I certainly am satisfied with a second round tender and being willing to match if a reasonable offer sheet is signed or let him go for that good compensation if we can't match an offer. Win some, lose some, ya know?

But I definitely think we've jumped a step from we have a good TE who we should keep to "he is considered elite and will be too rich for us."

It may be that we can't afford him if he signs an offer sheet this year or that we can't afford him next year if he has a good or better year--but that has more to do with the fact that we have a top-3 QB contract, the top LT contract, a top-5 DT contract, and will owe Jaire and Davante top-3 contracts at WR and CB next year than Tonyan himself getting some sort of top-3 TE contract (which could happen if he has an Austin Hooper-like contract year or something)

Correct me if I am wrong. If the Packers put a 2nd round tender on him, they have to pay him just under 4 mil and if someone wants to pay him more then the Packers can match and keep him. But if someone wants him and has the cap they can offer him 5 mil, for example and all the Packers get for an ascending starter who led the league in TD's and many other metrics is a 2nd round pick. If that someone is the Bubs, all the Packers get is the last 2nd round pick in the draft.

But if the Packers put a 1st round tender on him, they have to pay him just under 5 mil. Now if the Bucs want him for 5 mil and the Packers can't match that, at least the Packers get a decent draft pick for him.

So why would the Packers choose to get a 2nd round pick for him when they can get a 1st round pick for him? In either case he is gone and the Packers don't have to pay him anything. For a team like the Bucs that are losing Gronk and need a good TE and have 28 mil in cap space, 5 mil is chump change, they are going to pay him unless they already have a replacement for Gronk that they have confidence in. In that case someone else is likely to pay him.

A 2nd round pick for Tonyan is a steal for us.

[TheSkeptic]

A 2nd round pick for Tonyan is a steal for us.

And there is where we disagree. IMO a 2nd round pick plus 5 mil is a steal for every other team in the league.
IMO, the most important stat for any WR or TE is the QB rating when targeted. Tonyan led the league in this
IMO the 2nd most important stat for a TE is TD catches. That is a TE's primary job, to catch short yardage passes under pressure. Tonyan was tied for the league in this.
IMO the most important athletic skill for a TE is hand eye co-ordination so he does not drop passes. Tonyan led the league in this
IMO the second most important athletic skill for a TE is to be a hands catcher so he has a wide catch radius. AR specifically spoke of this with regard to Tonyan.
IMO the third most important attribute for a TE is to be smart and run good routes, to get open. Most college QB's are smart and Tonyan was a college QB. AR has specifically said that Tonyan runs good routes.

And then there is this:
According to Kent Lee Platte’s Relative Athletic Score (RAS) system, Tonyan is considered an “Elite” athlete—the highest designation. He ran a 4.58 40-yard dash at his Pro Day in 2017 and had Elite 20- and 10-yard splits. He also boasts Elite vertical and broad jump numbers. His only “Poor” measurements come from his weight and bench, only weighing in at 236 and putting up 16 bench reps. Both these attributes can be remedied at the NFL level, though, when training with professional staff (indeed, Tonyan is surely bigger than his listed 237-pound weight).
https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2020 ... ckers-2020

So what is/was his weakness? Blocking. Should this surprise you? No, college QB's are not taught to block. Tonyan was only a starting college QB for a few games, then he switched to being his team's primary WR. WR's who lead their team in receiving are seldom taught to block either. Nobody ever said that Tonyan wasn't willing and at 6'5" and a probable 245 now, he certainly is big enough. Odds are pretty good that he is an average blocker for a TE now. Being an average blocker for the starting TE position is good enough if he is elite as a receiver - which he is.

As a TE, Tonyan is elite. With regard to bang for the buck, Tonyan is the best TE in the game. You would have to spend a top 10 draft pick to replace him or pay a veteran $14 mil a year to replace him. Letting him go for a late 2nd round draft choice, if that is what the Packers do, we will be talking about this for 10 years, as we do about Hayward and Hyde.

[lupedafiasco]

36.63 yards per game.

You people need to relax with the elite talk. An elite TE would get double that with poor QB play. Good player but a product of being wide open.

[TheSkeptic]

36.63 yards per game.

You people need to relax with the elite talk. An elite TE would get double that with poor QB play. Good player but a product of being wide open.

And how is yards per game relevant?

So you would advocate taking targets away from Adams? Completely ignoring Lazard and MVS? When he was targeted, he produced. At an unusually high % too. In the 2 playoff games, he was targeted 8 times and caught all 8 passes for 82 yards and a TD.

He is not the QB and he is not the coach, he does not get to say that he should get more targets and he would not, because he is a team player and not a glory hound.

Oh, one more thing. He never fumbled all season including the playoffs.

[lupedafiasco]

36.63 yards per game.

You people need to relax with the elite talk. An elite TE would get double that with poor QB play. Good player but a product of being wide open.

And how is yards per game relevant?

So you would advocate taking targets away from Adams? Completely ignoring Lazard and MVS? When he was targeted, he produced. At an unusually high % too. In the 2 playoff games, he was targeted 8 times and caught all 8 passes for 82 yards and a TD.

He is not the QB and he is not the coach, he does not get to say that he should get more targets and he would not, because he is a team player and not a glory hound.

Oh, one more thing. He never fumbled all season including the playoffs.

Adams gets all those balls because he’s elite.

A coach gets the ball into his best players hands. That’s why Kelce catches 100 passes despite the weapons around him. You look over the years of true elite play from the TE position they have huge production years because they’re special players. Tonyan is good but he isn’t even in the conversation for elite.

You people are acting like insane homers. How many elite TEs do you think are in the league?