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Lot of discussion lately on the forum surrounding both Aaron Jones and JJ Watt with a lot of scenarios being put forth on how we can retain/sign one of them as it relates to current cap restrictions. The Packers are currently around $13 mil over the projected cap as it stands today (I'm stealing that number from a post [mention]go pak go[/mention] recently put forth; gonna trust the accountant's math ) and that precludes expected Tonyan and draft choice contracts.
There are moves the front office can make in regards to restructures and extensions that give some breathing room in terms of the cap relief but I think the overall consensus is the Packers can afford one major signing - but that's it. Not with the other roster obligations still looming, anyway. Let's assume for a moment that is true.
So who makes the cut, so to speak? Do you retain Jones and his dynamic running/pass catching abilities in this high powered offense? Or do you bring in Watt and solidify a defensive front that is likely to be impactful to the entirety of the defense? Or is there somebody else out there as the best fit/option?
You're the GM for a day - make your move and tell us why?
If JJ takes a reasonable offer that we can actually make work, I am going JJ Watt.
We have an opportunity at getting a dominant front 4 that has shown in the past of dominant front 4's winning SB's.
Add to that, if we make a hit at say ILB (Zaven) and have solid ILB's, we could have a dominant front 7, an All Pro CB and dominant safeties.
I just don't see how that couldn't make anyone excited.
Give me that opportunity of having a top 5 defense. I will always have hope our offense can figure it out. When you have All Pro's at every position level on offense, it is easier to hide weaknesses than when you have All Pro's at the levels on defense but liabilities elsewhere.
Only dumbo teams sign RBs to huge 2nd and 3rd contracts.
It isn't hard to find a RB who fits your particular system of blocking and passing. Combine that RB with blocking and competent QB play and that RB will be productive.
There is no reason to pay any particular RB big money.
If your RBs aren't producing, then your blocking sucks, your play calling is formulaic, or you have mismatched your RBs skill sets to your offensive philosophy.
Let some &%$@ team pay Jones 15 million per year or whatever.
Only dumbo teams sign RBs to huge 2nd and 3rd contracts.
It isn't hard to find a RB who fits your particular system of blocking and passing. Combine that RB with blocking and competent QB play and that RB will be productive.
There is no reason to pay any particular RB big money.
If your RBs aren't producing, then your blocking sucks, your play calling is formulaic, or you have mismatched your RBs skill sets to your offensive philosophy.
Let some &%$@ team pay Jones 15 million per year or whatever.
I mean Jones is a dynamic player that creates production when production is not there. I actually wouldn't be against retaining Jones as I don't look at him like I do other RBs.
RBs who are special absolutely deserve their value when they are select RBs. Dalvin Cook is worth it. AP was worth it. Marshawn Lynch was worth it. Alvin Kamara was worth it.
Never follow rules of absolutes. Aaron Jones is a player I would be happy to keep, but I think in our particular situation with the opportunity of signing JJ Watt, a high priced and high caliber FA who has reason to want to play in GB....you have to chase that first.
it's all about production, both are impact players that can change the outcome of a game, I agree absolutes skews the conversation, plenty of RB's have played very well on 2nd contracts, specially low mileage RB's like Jones, and Jones wont get 15 mil. either, in fact his tag price is half what it will probably cost to sign Watts.
Minus Watts and this is still a very good D front, Our biggest problem is the same one we've had for years now, ILB, fix that and the DL improves as a result.
we throttled down Jones with both run touch and pass last year and he still produced 1500 yrds, Can Dillon produce that, or can we make it up some other way.
I've accepted that we are likely to lose Jones, and that it's going to take some financial manuevering to bring Watt aboard, I'am unfortunatly leaning towards we lose out on both.
I've actually been thinking about how the RB Franchise tag (~8.5M), the cap savings of cutting Preston Smith (~8.1M), and the potential cap cost for JJ Watt on a multi-year deal that keeps costs low in year one are all about the same, and how deciding which of those three we want is a pretty viable and realistic decision point.
If we only get one of the three... I would rather
- sign Watt, cut Preston Smith, and let Aaron Jones walk than...
- tag Jones, cut Preston Smith and miss out on Watt or...
- keep Preston Smith, let Aaron Jones walk, and miss out on Watt
If we get two of the three, I'd rather
- sign Watt, tag Aaron Jones, and cut Preston Smith than...
- keep Preston Smith, tag Aaron Jones, and miss out on Watt or...
- sign Watt, keep Preston Smith, and let Aaron Jones walk
After further review ........ I am thinking the only window is 2021 now. 2022 is so far off it really doesn't matter right now. That being said......I say mortgage the future now. Losing an All-Pro like Linsley weakens the offense already, not to mention waiting for Bakh to mend weakens the offense even more. Our offensive tackle positions are tenuous at best right now. So I think there is no choice but to keep Aaron Jones ---- he's our Kamara like Hornung was our Gifford. And do whatever you can to keep Tonyan.
Just do whatever you can to strengthen the defense. Draft offensive line first, and then defense. CB, ILB and Defensive Line. Maybe 2 CBs and 2 ILBs, and another interior defensive lineman.
I am now of the mindset to think more about finishing strong and not worrying about sprinting out of the blocks, over even getting the #1 seed. Go for it all in 2021. Give Bakh time to mend. Gutey needs to do a lot more besides land JJ Watt.
I think keeping Aaron Jones is more important to achieving success in 2021 (than landing JJ Watt).
Last edited by RingoCStarrQB on 28 Feb 2021 07:20, edited 4 times in total.
Only dumbo teams sign RBs to huge 2nd and 3rd contracts.
It isn't hard to find a RB who fits your particular system of blocking and passing. Combine that RB with blocking and competent QB play and that RB will be productive.
There is no reason to pay any particular RB big money.
If your RBs aren't producing, then your blocking sucks, your play calling is formulaic, or you have mismatched your RBs skill sets to your offensive philosophy.
Let some &%$@ team pay Jones 15 million per year or whatever.
I just wanna see that cap bounce to like 200 after some ‘agreements’ and such, and add JJ, Linsley and Jones that same afternoon. And Preston still go.
I love Corey Linsley, but no matter what the cap is, he is the easy one to let go, for me. Preston Smith seems like a no brainer, but when I start to play out the scenarios, he is the one I think we might regret more when he is gone. You just need those pass rushers and 4 still isn't even ever enough.
I just wanna see that cap bounce to like 200 after some ‘agreements’ and such, and add JJ, Linsley and Jones that same afternoon. And Preston still go.
I mean if the cap goes up to $200 million....the player's values will also go up because our competitors are also going to be flush with cash.
If it comes down to Watt or Jones, I would also take Jones. As much as I want a better defense, Jones is a special runner and while Watt is very very good, he's a major injury risk.
“We didn’t lose the game; we just ran out of time.”
- Vince Lombardi
I just wanna see that cap bounce to like 200 after some ‘agreements’ and such, and add JJ, Linsley and Jones that same afternoon. And Preston still go.
I mean if the cap goes up to $200 million....the player's values will also go up because our competitors are also going to be flush with cash.
Not really, there is still like a 30-40 million sinkhole, per team, that part won’t change even if it’s spread out. Unless we are talking 17 game season, that might change revenue projections.
Players salaries haven’t been reflecting this cap challenge.... yet.
Gunna be some unbelievable bargains about 3 weeks into
FA, imo.
If you are saying dont pay Jones because of what happened to the Rams and Todd Gurley I can see how that would be a go to example. But the situations really are not the same at all.
Gurley had a major knee injury in college. He then had more touches in his ROOKIE year with the Rams than Jones had in his first two years in the league. At this point Gurley has double the amount of rushes as Jones and almost double the amount of receptions.
Most of the "dont pay a running back" wisdom comes down to teams completely using the rb up for all they are worth during their rookie contracts. It happened to Gurley, Zeke, Jordan Howard, Ajayi...i mean it would be the norm situation. Teams get these guys for cheap and wear them down.
That is not the story of Aaron Jones. He has always been in a time share, and his first two years he had a coach that had no idea how to use a rb of his style. Sean Payton got Kamara and made him useful even though he was not the best pass blocker yet, Jones lack of touches are a knock on MM and not Jones IMO.
Jones still has his best years in front of him IMO. I think his next two years can be great.
For you guys who prefer JJ, just tell me that you are accepting that he is a risk to miss a significant part of the season due to injury/wear and tear. He isn't getting any younger. He is still an incredible talent. But you have to admit that it's a risk to sign him, that he won't be injured again and miss 4-8 games.
I just don't see that the comparison between keeping JJ and AJ is equal, as this injury risk for JJ is much higher than for AJ.
I'm not saying to stay away from JJ. I'm just saying that the injury history on him is a significant factor in how you make your decision.
As much as I'd LOVE to have JJ, I have a hard time getting past his injuries now. I'd rather have that cog on defense. But I'll take AJ on this one. If this would've been a (hypothetical) consideration five years ago, I'd be on the JJ train all day.
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) and that precludes expected Tonyan and draft choice contracts.
