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If you are saying dont pay Jones because of what happened to the Rams and Todd Gurley I can see how that would be a go to example. But the situations really are not the same at all.
Gurley had a major knee injury in college. He then had more touches in his ROOKIE year with the Rams than Jones had in his first two years in the league. At this point Gurley has double the amount of rushes as Jones and almost double the amount of receptions.
Most of the "dont pay a running back" wisdom comes down to teams completely using the rb up for all they are worth during their rookie contracts. It happened to Gurley, Zeke, Jordan Howard, Ajayi...i mean it would be the norm situation. Teams get these guys for cheap and wear them down.
That is not the story of Aaron Jones. He has always been in a time share, and his first two years he had a coach that had no idea how to use a rb of his style. Sean Payton got Kamara and made him useful even though he was not the best pass blocker yet, Jones lack of touches are a knock on MM and not Jones IMO.
Jones still has his best years in front of him IMO. I think his next two years can be great.
well said Dr J, as I said, this dont sign RB's to second contracts has become a cliche, and unless you look at each RB individually then the comment lacks real truth.
RB is a position players are usually able to start and do well early, often by the 4th or 5th game of there rookie year or so, not so much on pure passing downs, but certainly 1st and 2nd down, even Rodgers complained that we where not running enough.
McCarthy was famous for curtailing run touches, he did it with Lacy and every RB he ever had here, I contend to it playing a part with Lacy becoming complacent and gaining so much weight, it almost seemed like a tactic to keep the RB production in check helping to lower the cost of a second contract, basically going as s backwards of the standard norm of maxing out production during first contract and starting the process over every 4 to 5 seasons with a new RB, it was mind boggling to me anyway.
either way I agree, I think the last 2 seasons of Jones is just a prelude to what we can expect for the next 2 or 3 years, imo McCarthy wasted Jones first two seasons of cheap production, says a hell of a lot about our RB coach at the time to for putting up with that stupidity.
In the scenario where Aaron Jones is not in our long term plans, how about a possible tag and trade of Jones? Maybe could get a late 2nd or early 3rd, rather than a 2022 4th comp pick.
Any smart way to do that without the temporary carry of his tag dollars hurting us elsewhere?
I just don't see that the comparison between keeping JJ and AJ is equal, as this injury risk for JJ is much higher than for AJ.
Is it?
J.J. Watt has started all 16 games 2 of the last 3 seasons. Aaron Jones has started 16 games 1 of the last 3 seasons.
I would be OK with saying J.J. Watt is a bit more of an injury risk due to his age, but definitely not much higher.
Palmy - "Very few have the ability to truly excel regardless of system. For many the system is the difference between being just a guy or an NFL starter. Fact is, everyone is talented at this level."
I have to say that I am generally a "don't pay RBs" person, and the reason I'm making an exception for Jones in advocating for a tag, particularly is not because Jones is some sort of generational kind of guy, but because we are a team that works rookies in slowly and our roster currently does not have someone to replicate his explosive traits both rushing and receiving out of the backfield.
Williams is not that guy and Dillon is not that guy. We can win without that sort of guy, but it's easier not to. The low tag value this year is a gift of compromise. The draft has several backs that stand a chance at replacing that dynamic with a year of seasoning.
I have to say that I am generally a "don't pay RBs" person, and the reason I'm making an exception for Jones in advocating for a tag, particularly is not because Jones is some sort of generational kind of guy, but because we are a team that works rookies in slowly and our roster currently does not have someone to replicate his explosive traits both rushing and receiving out of the backfield.
Williams is not that guy and Dillon is not that guy. We can win without that sort of guy, but it's easier not to. The low tag value this year is a gift of compromise. The draft has several backs that stand a chance at replacing that dynamic with a year of seasoning.
That's where I stand.
What makes me less concerned about the rookie situation is rookie RBs can come in and have success. The pass block thing is an absolute concern.
But the theory of MLF not playing rookies and therefore a rookie running back won't have impact could change mighty quick if we don't have another choice. For example, if Dillon had to play in 2020 because of an injury and there were no other choices (think the TEN game), the rookie RB did quite well. If there is no choice but to play the rookie, the rookie will be played and the rookie could do a fine job of doing it.
What makes me less concerned about the rookie situation is rookie RBs can come in and have success. The pass block thing is an absolute concern.
But the theory of MLF not playing rookies and therefore a rookie running back won't have impact could change mighty quick if we don't have another choice. For example, if Dillon had to play in 2020 because of an injury and there were no other choices (think the TEN game), the rookie RB did quite well. If there is no choice but to play the rookie, the rookie will be played and the rookie could do a fine job of doing it.
I absolutely know that rookie RBs can have success, but I also know that none can replace Jones' seamless fit into our offense in year one. I really like Dillon, so I'm not the most concerned... but if we're looking at a RB room with 2 rookie contracts, we can afford to put a little money into someone else. Williams would be nice for continuity, but if we go with Williams and Dillon then we NEED a playmaking dynamic aspect to at least sprinkle in through the draft.
It just seems like the easiest way to maintain high-level offense is to keep Jones for a year and then draft a Day Three guy with similar traits and explosiveness to be his eventual replacement
if the trade-off is Jones-Dillon in the backfield or Watt-Z-Clark-Gary as our front 4, I'm gonna take that front 4 and figure out the RB situation.
What I DO think is that if we don't keep Jones we absolutely have to prioritize dynamic playmaking ability in this draft (from anywhere on offense, not just necessarily RB). The offense has all the pieces to be consistent and function within the system, but we need playmakers to sprinkle in, and if Jones is gone, we're down one from last year
What makes me less concerned about the rookie situation is rookie RBs can come in and have success. The pass block thing is an absolute concern.
But the theory of MLF not playing rookies and therefore a rookie running back won't have impact could change mighty quick if we don't have another choice. For example, if Dillon had to play in 2020 because of an injury and there were no other choices (think the TEN game), the rookie RB did quite well. If there is no choice but to play the rookie, the rookie will be played and the rookie could do a fine job of doing it.
I absolutely know that rookie RBs can have success, but I also know that none can replace Jones' seamless fit into our offense in year one. I really like Dillon, so I'm not the most concerned... but if we're looking at a RB room with 2 rookie contracts, we can afford to put a little money into someone else. Williams would be nice for continuity, but if we go with Williams and Dillon then we NEED a playmaking dynamic aspect to at least sprinkle in through the draft.
It just seems like the easiest way to maintain high-level offense is to keep Jones for a year and then draft a Day Three guy with similar traits and explosiveness to be his eventual replacement
Oh I agree.
I think Gute has a hell of a battle on this 2021 roster. A lot of tough decisions need to be made and I don't know which ones are honestly the best.
I kept telling myself in January that 2021 was going to be a difficult offseason but if we can win a ring...it will make it a lot more fun.
Now ring chasing is high pressure with not many resources. When you got 6 to 7 sizeable holes or improvement spots to fill....that's tough on any offseason. We have that in RB, OT, Center, DL, ILB, CB, WR. And we don't have that many bullets in the gun to take care of them all.
Also, for my own sanity as a frequent reader of Packers storylines and fan reactions, I want something that excites people again so I don't have to fend off the negativity we all feel after a disappointing end to a very fun and hopeful season. While I don't want the team making decisions based on that, I'd be lying if I didn't admit it plays a factor in what I want right now. I want other people who are doubtful or skeptical to feel excited and hopeful and optimistic about the upcoming season.
What makes me less concerned about the rookie situation is rookie RBs can come in and have success. The pass block thing is an absolute concern.
But the theory of MLF not playing rookies and therefore a rookie running back won't have impact could change mighty quick if we don't have another choice. For example, if Dillon had to play in 2020 because of an injury and there were no other choices (think the TEN game), the rookie RB did quite well. If there is no choice but to play the rookie, the rookie will be played and the rookie could do a fine job of doing it.
I absolutely know that rookie RBs can have success, but I also know that none can replace Jones' seamless fit into our offense in year one. I really like Dillon, so I'm not the most concerned... but if we're looking at a RB room with 2 rookie contracts, we can afford to put a little money into someone else. Williams would be nice for continuity, but if we go with Williams and Dillon then we NEED a playmaking dynamic aspect to at least sprinkle in through the draft.
It just seems like the easiest way to maintain high-level offense is to keep Jones for a year and then draft a Day Three guy with similar traits and explosiveness to be his eventual replacement
well we've probably drafted a doz RB's in this last decade, we got ONE Jones, and Lacy who was given 19 touches a game as a rookie and cut back to 14 his 2nd season (how insane is that) so rookies can obviously run it well, just can't be trusted to pick up blitzers and such. so ya, you could say Jones is a generational RB since we've only been able to find one in a decade or more.
I do think 004 made a good point, we should at minimum tag the guy, then see what the draft produces and trade him if thats possible. sure beats just letting him walk.
Last edited by Yoop on 01 Mar 2021 10:42, edited 1 time in total.
Also, for my own sanity as a frequent reader of Packers storylines and fan reactions, I want something that excites people again so I don't have to fend off the negativity we all feel after a disappointing end to a very fun and hopeful season. While I don't want the team making decisions based on that, I'd be lying if I didn't admit it plays a factor in what I want right now. I want other people who are doubtful or skeptical to feel excited and hopeful and optimistic about the upcoming season.
I am definitely optimistic and excited for the 2021 - 2022 Green Bay Packers.
I think this is a 10-6 to 12-4 football team (likely currently closer to that 10-6/11-5) the next few years. So because of the roster we have and because our QB is playing again at a high level...naturally I am excited. I think we got a shot and if things go our way this offseason, we could have a serious run again.
However I also think it is important to be objective and honest with ourselves of where this Packers football team is. I'm not going to be a Vikings fan and brag how we are one player away when we aren't. I truthfully believe this football team is likely the leader of the North for 2021 and will likely get that 3 seed as the NFC East will likely again have a 4 seed.
I get skeptical when saying we are the top NFC team. Now having said that, I can't count many NFC teams that are clearly above us. Tampa and San Fran are likely most obvious. Rams could be too.
But I appreciate the challenge that Gute has this offseason and I primarily appreciate it because he did honestly do what he needed to do in 2020. He built a 2020 roster good enough for it all and he also built a roster that was being readied for the transition of 2023 and beyond.
It's the players who screwed it up in January and that has to be incredibly frustrating as a GM when you know you built a team good enough to do it and you didn't. And oh by the way...now these players want more money and are likely gone.
That being said, I have the perfect offseason in my head....and if we do it my way. We are guaranteed a Super Bowl.
What I DO think is that if we don't keep Jones we absolutely have to prioritize dynamic playmaking ability in this draft (from anywhere on offense, not just necessarily RB). The offense has all the pieces to be consistent and function within the system, but we need playmakers to sprinkle in, and if Jones is gone, we're down one from last year
Not to mention that if we are looking beyond 2021, MVS is a likely goner after the season, too. I cannot see paying him a second contract unless he just absolutely explodes and becomes quasi-#1 WR, but I think we might have already made a decision on Adams, too, by then, so I just see this as MVS' last season pretty much no matter what happens.
we Know, you have made it perfectly clear that your fine sending 1500 yrds of production elsewhere for basically
what amounts to a 5 th round pick, how do you expect to replace that for 8 mil bucks.
What I DO think is that if we don't keep Jones we absolutely have to prioritize dynamic playmaking ability in this draft (from anywhere on offense, not just necessarily RB). The offense has all the pieces to be consistent and function within the system, but we need playmakers to sprinkle in, and if Jones is gone, we're down one from last year
Not to mention that if we are looking beyond 2021, MVS is a likely goner after the season, too. I cannot see paying him a second contract unless he just absolutely explodes and becomes quasi-#1 WR, but I think we might have already made a decision on Adams, too, by then, so I just see this as MVS' last season pretty much no matter what happens.
we Know, you have made it perfectly clear that your fine sending 1500 yrds of production elsewhere for basically
what amounts to a 5 th round pick, how do you expect to replace that for 8 mil bucks.
With Dillon and a draft pick or UDFA.
Jones really isn't special. We're just do used to mediocre we think he is.
we Know, you have made it perfectly clear that your fine sending 1500 yrds of production elsewhere for basically
what amounts to a 5 th round pick, how do you expect to replace that for 8 mil bucks.
With Dillon and a draft pick or UDFA.
Jones really isn't special. We're just do used to mediocre we think he is.
