NFL sets 2021 salary cap at $182.5 million

[wallyuwl]

Welp, I was wrong, really thought it was going to get bumped up.

I think it is about time the league and NFLPA realize the gravy train won't go on forever.

[paco]

Welp, I was wrong, really thought it was going to get bumped up.

I think it is about time the league and NFLPA realize the gravy train won't go on forever.

They have absolutely no reason to think it won't. Look at the new tv deals. Nothing has happened to show that they are on any sort of downward trend. Business would have boomed again in 2020 had Covid not happened.

[wallyuwl]

New TV deals usually/often lead to 20-25% increases in a single year, even if the increases are spread out over multiple years. Losing $15-20 million to the 2020 losses will be dwarfed by what is gained, especially considering we're coming off an anomaly on the downside. MAYBE it'll take until '23 depedning on the structure since not all the deals are up (though it sounds like all are on the verge of extension right now). But my money is on 2022 seeing a 20% increase over 2020 cap number, then minus the losses from 2020 revenues

It all depends. Viewership is still down (peaked in 2015), and that is what drives tv contracts. Advertisers are promised a certain audience by the networks, both in total number and key demographics. Networks use that anticipated revenue in bidding for the tv contracts with the league. But if the viewers are not there as promised, the networks need to pay back some money to the advertisers. If the networks anticipate a reduced tv audience, that means they can expect fewer advertising dollars, which means they won't/can't bid as high for the contract, which effects the cap in a big way.

They have absolutely no reason to think it won't. Look at the new tv deals. Nothing has happened to show that they are on any sort of downward trend. Business would have boomed again in 2020 had Covid not happened.

Disagree. If anything, COVID should have increased viewership to record levels. It did not. The NFL is losing consumers of its product. Stadium revenue is a drop in the bucket to tv revenue.

[paco]

New TV deals usually/often lead to 20-25% increases in a single year, even if the increases are spread out over multiple years. Losing $15-20 million to the 2020 losses will be dwarfed by what is gained, especially considering we're coming off an anomaly on the downside. MAYBE it'll take until '23 depedning on the structure since not all the deals are up (though it sounds like all are on the verge of extension right now). But my money is on 2022 seeing a 20% increase over 2020 cap number, then minus the losses from 2020 revenues

It all depends. Viewership is still down (peaked in 2015), and that is what drives tv contracts. Advertisers are promised a certain audience by the networks, both in total number and key demographics. Networks use that anticipated revenue in bidding for the tv contracts with the league. But if the viewers are not there as promised, the networks need to pay back some money to the advertisers. If the networks anticipate a reduced tv audience, that means they can expect fewer advertising dollars, which means they won't/can't bid as high for the contract, which effects the cap in a big way.

They have absolutely no reason to think it won't. Look at the new tv deals. Nothing has happened to show that they are on any sort of downward trend. Business would have boomed again in 2020 had Covid not happened.

Disagree. If anything, COVID should have increased viewership to record levels. It did not. The NFL is losing consumers of its product. Stadium revenue is a drop in the bucket to tv revenue.

People are finding new ways to watch that aren't always measured the same way. And the NFL stopped caring as much about consumers years ago. Sure viewship is dropping, but not by a significant sum. It is still the most watched thing on tv when it is on. The NFL cares about sponsors, tv deals, and the big companies buying up suites. You can even see in Green Bay so much of the focus is shifting outside the stadium to bring in more money from visitors outside rather than in.

Nope, NFL is doing just fine. Business shifting a bit, but still booming.

[NCF]

They milked the DirecTV monopoly for a long, long time. I think the upcoming deals will also include getting with the times and allowing more users to access NFL content via streaming which, IMO, will bring back a lot of viewership that may have been lost due to cord-cutting/satellite refusal.

[paco]

They milked the DirecTV monopoly for a long, long time. I think the upcoming deals will also include getting with the times and allowing more users to access NFL content via streaming which, IMO, will bring back a lot of viewership that may have been lost due to cord-cutting/satellite refusal.

And so many of those people are still watching. Just doing it through illegal streams. I've watched a few PPV boxing and UFC matches as well as Brewers and Bucks games that were out of market that way. Come at me feds. So many options to still watch whatever you went, whenever you want, however you want.

[BF004]

wally is still just trying to convince himself and others the NFL is losing business by not taking a harder stance against people kneeling for the anthem.

Everyone's always gotta stick to the narrative.

[Ghost_Lombardi]

I haven't had a tv or cable for 2 decades. I never miss a game.

[Yoop]

wally is still just trying to convince himself and others the NFL is losing business by not taking a harder stance against people kneeling for the anthem.

Everyone's always gotta stick to the narrative.

[YoHoChecko]

The NFL currently gets about $7.5 billion per year from the TV networks and DirecTV.

The rumors of the next deals, which are to be announced immanently, START at $10 billion per year and range up to $14 billion per year. It's literally going to increase 67-100% in revenues.

Anyone thinking the cap or the NFL or the market is in any trouble is empirically and emphatically incorrect and always has been. There has never been a whiff of trouble. Not even an ounce of it.

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[go pak go]

And more importantly, Sunday Ticket will no longer be a thing right? Amazon Prime is rumored to have a deal in place which I would be all for rather than needing to pay AT&T for Sunday Ticket.

Though I will give AT&T credit (even though I think they are now selling DirecTV), their online streaming option of Sunday Ticket they offered without needing DirecTV itself the last 3 to 5 years has been awesome.

[BSA]

And more importantly, Sunday Ticket will no longer be a thing right?

one more year, unfortunately. They are talking about what's going to happen, streaming options etc, but the Sunday Ticket deal wasn't synced up with the networks on the contract side - so we have to suffer one more season. AT&T already said they are out

[Yoop]

Welp, I was wrong, really thought it was going to get bumped up.

I think it is about time the league and NFLPA realize the gravy train won't go on forever.

Jerry Jones isn't listening, just gave his QB more money then Proctor and Gambles CEO's get annually

[APB]

No, it's the $182.5M Here's every team per overthecap.com
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That's weird, but you are correct. Spotrac had the Packers around that -$9,679,306 number with the projected $185 million cap. Now they are at $-8,346,117. I'll take less!

Does our carryover make up the difference?

Not according to Ryan Wood:



Pretty sure he's a bit off, tho. He's the only one I've see reporting a $5ish mil cap overage. As others have said in his comments, looks like he may have overlooked the dead cap charge and we're sitting around $9.5 mil over.

[go pak go]

That NFLPA picture makes absolutely zero sense to me.

[paco]

That NFLPA picture makes absolutely zero sense to me.

It's fairly simple. Take the $182.5M everyone gets (which is the floor) then add each team's 2020 carryover. Some teams had a lot to carry over from last season. This is the amount each team has to spend on in cap space for the 2021 season.

[Waldo]

Looking at the cap numbers for teams and the massive contract shedding going on, I'd guess we're going to see a dramatic shift in the relative quality of teams.

There will certainly be a 90's Packers to emerge from this. Some teams have a huge amount of space and free agency will definitely be a buyers market.

[YoHoChecko]

Looking at the cap numbers for teams and the massive contract shedding going on, I'd guess we're going to see a dramatic shift in the relative quality of teams.

There will certainly be a 90's Packers to emerge from this. Some teams have a huge amount of space and free agency will definitely be a buyers market.

Yeah if I'm the Jaguars, for instance, I may splurge on a couple frontloaded big ticket items and then leave myself about $30 million to collect later-free-agency bargain veterans who have no other option and are perfectly good players. If those teams with resources choose to conserve them until after the first or second wave, they can pretty much take their pick of the remaining free agents. And by front-loading the bit-ticket contracts and drafting a rookie QB, you can likely keep it together moving forward even if you add guys on one-year prove-it deals at the time

[Waldo]

With regards to the other argument, about viewership and contracts.

The NFL is losing viewers, but it has absolutely nothing to do with the anthem (if anything that would help KEEP the group they are losing). The NFL has a huge problem with the under-25 demographic, who simply do not consume TV type entertainment on a forum the NFL is a part of. Which the NFL recognizes, given that it leaked that the NFL is willing to lose money (not take the highest bid IOW) in order to get on Youtube, which is where many of those missing eyes are. Illegal streams suck, are way too much work, they are basically for hardcore fans only (same argument there used to be with "import" records).

Unfortunately the NFL is still an old TV stalwart in a world where old TV is dying fast. Disney's massive move restructing around Disney+ was the end for old TV. All the best content is streamed and commercial free now. The media ecosystem is reorganizing rapidly around content producers. Except the NFL.

The NFL's entry point into the new media ecosystem is way, way behind due to their dreadful agreement with DirecTV. Sports in general is hemorrhaging viewership, maybe the NFL makes a big move into the new media ecosystem to stop that trend. And the real killer hasn't even emerged yet. There will be an esport that is basically made for TV that all sports will have to contend with; it just hasn't been made yet. Remember, same demographic NFL (and all sports) have an issue with, the under-25's, are almost 100% of esports consumers.

The wife an I are considering ditching directv and just taking a break from the NFL until they find their way into the 21st century. We realized that we pay for a service that maybe gets used 20 minutes a day to watch hgtv. Except for football games. Done subsidizing Faux and their ilk.

[YoHoChecko]

The NFL's entry point into the new media ecosystem is way, way behind due to their dreadful agreement with DirecTV. Sports in general is hemorrhaging viewership, maybe the NFL makes a big move into the new media ecosystem to stop that trend. And the real killer hasn't even emerged yet. There will be an esport that is basically made for TV that all sports will have to contend with; it just hasn't been made yet. Remember, same demographic NFL (and all sports) have an issue with, the under-25's, are almost 100% of esports consumers.

I mean, sports is hemorrhaging viewership but non-streaming TV in general is, also. Sports, due to the benefits of wanting to watch it live, still command the biggest audiences of any show, routinely. Usually the NFL has 45ish of the top-50 shows each year.

And the numbers leaking out of the new TV negotiations point that out. Not only are they finally wising up to allow more streaming (Amazon's game watching experience is awesome; you can pause and watch replays with NextGen stats included), but even after losing some money, the major Networks are still INCREASING their offers. For the NFL, that makes viewership a long-term concern and not a short-term one. There's simply no sign of anything to fear for the next 8-10 years in terms of TV revenue growth., given that the next deal will be 7-10 years