General Packer News 2021

[Scott4Pack]

Last second “predictions” for the Packers, as we head into silly week.

1. I think that this weekend will be quiet on the Aaron Jones front. He will test the market. The only offers that will “wow” him will be from teams that he doesn’t want to play with. So, sometime after Monday, he will sign a contract with GB that works for him and for us. (I could easily be wrong about this. But hey, I have to throw it out there with some wishful thinking.)

2. Linsley gets his money. This is the guy that I see being lost first. Teams want a guy like him, in his prime, to anchor their OLine. I’m shocked if he isn’t gone this weekend.

3. Green Bay will actually sign a FA. I only wish that I knew who it will be. I’d love Gilmore. Ertz might be good. A capable ILB.

4. I hate to stop at 3 points, so I need to add one more. What seems reasonable is about Z Smith getting a restructured contract. If the Pack does ADD anybody this weekend, it’ll only occur with their knowledge that Z’s contract helps to facilitate that. (And maybe a little help from Aaron Rogers too.)

[BF004]

Packers Coaches: we don’t care about sacks, it’s about pressures and affecting the quarterback

Packers Front Office: we are gunna base your pay off how many sacks you get.

[BF004]

[go pak go]

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[go pak go]

We should now be under the Cap.

I believe we also have effectively deferred around $7.5 to $9 million of 2021 cap into 2022 based on the moves we have done so far this offseason. (really depends on what Turner's actual numbers are. I am hearing conflicting reports)

How we shaved the cap:
Cut - saved 9.9 million by cutting Wagner and Kirksey
Pay Cut - saved 2.75 million by having Preston take a pay cut
Total shave from cuts = $12.6 million

Cap Deferral
Preston Smith = deferred $3.25 million into next year
Adrian Amos = Sounds like deferred $1 million into next year
Billy Turner = deferred $2.1 million into next year
Total shave from deferring cap into 2022 = $6.35 million

Total Shaved so far = roughly $19 million.

One thing to note on Preston's contract is he has incentives of $1.25 million that should hit his immediate cap of having "8 sacks". I believe this will get hit immediately because he has history of reaching that target before and therefore the Packers must accrue for it immediately.

[Ghost_Lombardi]

Packers Coaches: we don’t care about sacks, it’s about pressures and affecting the quarterback

Packers Front Office: we are gunna base your pay off how many sacks you get.

Packer fans: why are we not cutting a guy who was paid 3 million per sack when we have a cheaper, better version on the roster.

[Christo]

Packers Coaches: we don’t care about sacks, it’s about pressures and affecting the quarterback

Packers Front Office: we are gunna base your pay off how many sacks you get.

Packer fans: why are we not cutting a guy who was paid 3 million per sack when we have a cheaper, better version on the roster.

This Packer fan is really only concerned with wins. I don't care about stats. This team has won 28 games the past 2 seasons, Preston Smith was part of that. Cutting him would leave a huge hole in the defense, who's next in line after Gary to pick up that slack?

[paco]

I think there is a good chance we don't touch Rodgers' contract. And Packers fans will flip out.

[Ghost_Lombardi]

Packers Coaches: we don’t care about sacks, it’s about pressures and affecting the quarterback

Packers Front Office: we are gunna base your pay off how many sacks you get.

Packer fans: why are we not cutting a guy who was paid 3 million per sack when we have a cheaper, better version on the roster.

This Packer fan is really only concerned with wins. I don't care about stats. This team has won 28 games the past 2 seasons, Preston Smith was part of that. Cutting him would leave a huge hole in the defense, who's next in line after Gary to pick up that slack?

Preston Smith was responsible for the wins this year in the same sense that Jordan and Roy Sparrow once won 67 games.

[salmar80]

Packer fans: why are we not cutting a guy who was paid 3 million per sack when we have a cheaper, better version on the roster.

This Packer fan is really only concerned with wins. I don't care about stats. This team has won 28 games the past 2 seasons, Preston Smith was part of that. Cutting him would leave a huge hole in the defense, who's next in line after Gary to pick up that slack?

Preston Smith was responsible for the wins this year in the same sense that Jordan and Roy Sparrow once won 67 games.

I can think of a few reasons:

The front office believe Preston can once again have an effective pass rushing season like the 12-sack effort a year before. Has everyone forgotten his 2019 season? Our new DC probably wanted to keep him around. Without Preston, we'd have awful depth at pass rusher - Folks who think "Z and Gary is all you need" simply assume zero injuries and that those two would never get tired. That's video game thinking. For me, Garvin, Ramsey and maybe a rookie would be dubious depth at best. We don't wanna use a high pick on a pass rusher (again). If Z keeps moving around, three OLBs see the field at the same time regularly. Having a rotation of pass rushers keeps 'em fresher for late game. Preston is good vs the run...

[Yoop]

This Packer fan is really only concerned with wins. I don't care about stats. This team has won 28 games the past 2 seasons, Preston Smith was part of that. Cutting him would leave a huge hole in the defense, who's next in line after Gary to pick up that slack?

Preston Smith was responsible for the wins this year in the same sense that Jordan and Roy Sparrow once won 67 games.

I can think of a few reasons:

The front office believe Preston can once again have an effective pass rushing season like the 12-sack effort a year before. Has everyone forgotten his 2019 season? Our new DC probably wanted to keep him around. Without Preston, we'd have awful depth at pass rusher - Folks who think "Z and Gary is all you need" simply assume zero injuries and that those two would never get tired. That's video game thinking. For me, Garvin, Ramsey and maybe a rookie would be dubious depth at best. We don't wanna use a high pick on a pass rusher (again). If Z keeps moving around, three OLBs see the field at the same time regularly. Having a rotation of pass rushers keeps 'em fresher for late game. Preston is good vs the run...

Z had 55 total pressures, Preston and Gary had 44, Preston dropped into coverage over 150 times, thats 150 less snaps devoted to rushing the QB, I was fine with letting Preston go till I read these stats.

doubtful we'd ever replace Prestons production, and we need all the pass rush we can get.

[go pak go]

Depth isn't a bad thing.

It gets really annoying listening to fans wanting to cut Player X because we don't need him and then b*tch in October on how we don't have any depth.

Last year it was right tackle and how much of a waste it was to have 3 starting tackles....until we needed them.

The Packers may also know something about Preston Smith that we don't during the 2020 season. Perhaps an injury or something. I feel very good about Preston being on the Packers if he produces like he did in 2019. If we see the same 2020 Preston Smith however in 2021, then yes...it will be a poor decision.

He was that bad last year.

[Yoop]

Depth isn't a bad thing.

It gets really annoying listening to fans wanting to cut Player X because we don't need him and then b*tch in October on how we don't have any depth.

Last year it was right tackle and how much of a waste it was to have 3 starting tackles....until we needed them.

The Packers may also know something about Preston Smith that we don't during the 2020 season. Perhaps an injury or something. I feel very good about Preston being on the Packers if he produces like he did in 2019. If we see the same 2020 Preston Smith however in 2021, then yes...it will be a poor decision.

He was that bad last year.

No he wasn't, I just pointed out that he only had 10 or so less pressures then Z and he dropped into coverage 150+ times, with I'am thinking about 37 tackles, so how is that sooooooo bad?

[BSA]

Packer fans: why are we not cutting a guy who was paid 3 million per sack when we have a cheaper, better version on the roster.

OtherPackerfans: We're glad to have P. Smith back in the fold because we know that with 1000 defensive snaps per season and (2) OLB roles- you need to allocate those 2000 snaps strategically to maximize the effectiveness of those OLBs. Without suffering a huge dropoff in performance.
In the ideal world, you'd have 4 studs at OLB and they'd all play 500 snaps a season. But in the real world,you have limited talent spread across 32 teams and a salary cap preventing the ideal scenario from happening. Because those EDGEs are hard to find and expensive to pay.

So what you're after is having your stars playing 600-650 snaps/ season and if you're really really good at roster building - you'll have 3 stars to work with - thus limiting the dropoff when resting the others.This is exceptionally important is because there is a "tiredness threshold" when it comes to intense athletic performance. Once you dip below that threshold in a game, it doesn't matter how much rest you get - you're not getting max performance the rest of that game. So you can't play your stars too many snaps without a dropoff in their performance.

And if you think about the OLB position in a 3-4, they're often over matched and have to work really hard. Versus the run, they're taking on a guy who is 35-40 lbs heavier than them. On a pass rush, they're facing a guy with a loner wingspan, more height and heavier weight. When dropping into coverage, they are facing guys who are faster and more agile. These OLBs get tired so you need more of them. The concept of "starter" and "back-up" is meaningless in the modern NFL where they sub constantly.

Given the constraints of roster building, salary cap and performance fatigue - it's an incredible challenge to manage all of this across a game or a season. What the Packers did in grabbing (2) FAs AND drafting Gary - is give themselves 3 OLBs they can count on - and one can sub for the other without a major dropoff. That's huge and many teams don't even have 2 good ones. The other part about the Packers strategy at OLB is that Gary gets to develop while watching and learning from both of the Smith players (and coach Smith too). This doubles the value of those FA acquisitions because they are going to play well and teach the next generation. They've staggered the talent, the age and the compensation in a really favorable manner. That's good roster management

There's more to it, but I hoped to shine a little light on the decision-making process and why the Packers did what they did. They need at least 3 and you're not going to find cheaper/better on the open market. Some fans got down on Preston - but that decision was made by the HC, the DC who worked with Preston before and the FO who scours the league daily looking at every possible option before pulling the trigger on this move.
.

.

[Labrev]

Bringing Preston back keeps the rotation considerably stronger than it would be without him. In that sense, I am glad we held onto him.

That said, I kinda regret that we built our defense around the EDGE position and basically "have" to make this move, whereas I think being strong in the secondary and/or DL is a way smarter path to building a strong defense.

[Ghost_Lombardi]

Bringing Preston back keeps the rotation considerably stronger than it would be without him. In that sense, I am glad we held onto him.

That said, I kinda regret that we built our defense around the EDGE position and basically "have" to make this move, whereas I think being strong in the secondary and/or DL is a way smarter path to building a strong defense.

If KC goes down this defense stops no one. GB is soft at DB and DL.

All while the last two #1s watch from the side line.

The money allocated to PSmith needed to go elsewhere.

[Labrev]

The money allocated to PSmith needed to go elsewhere.

I kind of agree, but at this point, I doubt the money is enough to get us an appreciably better player.

But cap stuff is a bit wonky to me.

[Yoop]

Bringing Preston back keeps the rotation considerably stronger than it would be without him. In that sense, I am glad we held onto him.

That said, I kinda regret that we built our defense around the EDGE position and basically "have" to make this move, whereas I think being strong in the secondary and/or DL is a way smarter path to building a strong defense.

everyone builds there defense like this now days, simply put even the best secondary's now days can not hold up long against these high power offenses, and it is easier to aquire a couple excellent pass rushers then it is get 5 very good secondary players.

and for the money we are saving with Prest5on we can pick up a Snacks Harrison, or some other gap plugger.

when ya look around the league last year all pass pressures declined, so it's not just P Smith, Z's went south to, on Gary's increased, but then the only direction they could go was UP.

this wasn't so hard to get under the cap, and we havn't even reworked Rodgers contract yet, Guty said he would do what ever he had to do to be active with UFA this year, I expect a few signings to shore up a few weak spots.

so much doom and gloom in Packer land this off season, with a good draft, a few UFA hires and we'll be dancing in January as usual, and if we can buy off the refs as Tampa did last year we can also be the last dancers when the music stops, GPG

[go pak go]

Depth isn't a bad thing.

It gets really annoying listening to fans wanting to cut Player X because we don't need him and then b*tch in October on how we don't have any depth.

Last year it was right tackle and how much of a waste it was to have 3 starting tackles....until we needed them.

The Packers may also know something about Preston Smith that we don't during the 2020 season. Perhaps an injury or something. I feel very good about Preston being on the Packers if he produces like he did in 2019. If we see the same 2020 Preston Smith however in 2021, then yes...it will be a poor decision.

He was that bad last year.

No he wasn't, I just pointed out that he only had 10 or so less pressures then Z and he dropped into coverage 150+ times, with I'am thinking about 37 tackles, so how is that sooooooo bad?

He was bad. He graded very, very poorly by Andy Herman and I believe it.

He usually week in and week out was in the bottom 3 worst graded Packers in defense.

It's fun during the off-season to try and sugar coat player performances but that is not the case with Preston.

He had a very poor 2020.

And Z Smith didn't have a great 2020 either. I felt like Z got bailed out by some easy sacks to make his top line stat look respectable, but he really didn't have much impact either.

[paco]