YoHo's "One Month More" Mock

[YoHoChecko]

The draft is in a month.

THE DRAFT is IN a MONTH.

Ok, here's a mock.

Round 1, Pick 29:
Traded to Jets for 34 and 107 (640 to 640 on the trade value chart)

Round 2, Pick 34: Rashod Bateman
WR Minnesota 6'2" 210
When I think about a real #1 WR, I'm looking for a player that can create their own separation at any depth of target. Deep threats can generate separation with long speed or good double moves, but often don't have the quickness or footwork to create separation on a slant, comeback, or in-breaking route. A #1 WR, left in man coverage, should be expected to win the majority of those snaps, regardless of what the play is asking of them, and thus this player draws double teams. A number two is someone who probably has a trait or two that gives them specific advantages for specific route concepts in man coverage, and can use those advantages to win sometimes, taking advantage of the coverage being devoted to the #1 and making the opposing team pay. MOST of the receivers in this class are #2 or slot/gadget guys. Rashod Bateman can be a #1. He can win the same ways Davante can win. The only question is will he devote himself to being great and eventually challenge Adams to be our top target, or will he just be good, and cement his status as our #2WR alongside Davante.

Round 2, Pick 62: Paulsen Adebo
CB Stanford 6'1" 198, 4.42 40, 6.70 3-cone, 4.09 shuttle, 36.5 vert, 18 reps
I have no idea where to put this kid. If he's there are 62, I'm thrilled. If he's not, well, gosh, I guess we have to settle for a Tyson Camppbell or a Melifonwu or maybe it's because a Greg Newsome or Asante Samuel Jr fell instead... but let's talk about Adebo. He's the ideal build to play CB with enough size and length to play outside but enough quickness to play inside. He's smart and was considered to be a relatively high 2020 draft prospect but returned to school and then sat out the covid year. If he's out-of-sight, out-of-mind enough, we can get a steal. If he's not, imagine we trade up for him or something. Or swap him with Bateman and pick your fave WR here. Adebo would challenge King from day one and adds the ability to play that "STAR" we talk about.


Round 3, Pick 92: Marvin Wilson
DT Florida St. 6'4" 303, 33 3/8 arms, 5.12 40, 25.5 vert, 23 reps
I'm stretching a bit here for a post-hype sleeper candidate. IF the shine has worn on Wilson so much that he falls to the end of the 3rd (where I have seen him in some lists), I'm in. He never developed that second gear to become a pass rusher in college, but he is a high-motor, almost ideally-constructed DL who can immediately help fill the roles Lancaster and Montravius Adams disappointed in for us. Too many analysts have gone from "I don't see anything special worth taking early" to "not a very good player" on this kid, and I think they've gone too far. But because this is an unlikely-available stretch, I'm proposing an alternative plan: if Wilson is gone, I'm really into this Osa Odighizuwa kid from UCLA. Totally different player, at 6'3" 286--more of an undersized penetrator who moves along the line and plays the matchups; more competition for Keke than replacement for Adams or Lancaster


Round 4, Pick 107: Milton Williams
DT La Tech 6'3" 284, 31 1/2 arms, 4.62 40, 6.87 3-cone, 38.5 vert, 34 reps
A lot of people have put Williams into Day 2 after his unreal Pro Day. Williams is a small schooler who played EDGE until this past year. They decided as he was growing, to move him inside and he became just a constant disruptor. His level of competition, lack of ideal bulk, and limited experience playing inside gives him too many questions to take on Day 2 for me, but if he's here in the early 100s, he could be a real gem with continued physical development. It's not just the workout numbers. Tape hunters have been talking about this guy for several weeks now. IF the Wilson pick didn't fall for us in round three and we took Osa, a similarly long, underweight penetrator, I would switch this pick to Jonathan Marshall, a 6'3" 310 stout defender from Arkansas.

Round 4, Pick 135: Amari Rodgers
WR Clemson 5'10" 212, 4.51 40, 7.12 3-cone, 33 vert, 24 reps
On one hand, Rodgers running in the low 4.5s was disappointing for me; he seemed faster on tape. On the other hand, perhaps that cooled all the Day Two talk for a slot guy and I can put him where I actually want to take him--the 4th. His thickness adds extra versatility, as he can play out of the backfield. He's a high-level return man and STs, and he's just reliable as all get-out working the middle of the field. And he's STRONG, which suits our offense and sets him apart from the other sot guys in this draft. That's a RB body with slot WR skills.

Round 4, Pick 142:Benjamin St-Juste
CB Minnesota, 6'3" 200
I'm not saying St-Juste is a better player than Melifonwu, but they were both at the Senior Bowl, are both similarly built players (St-Juste is thinner), and St-Juste drew better reviews from what I heard. I listened to some people talk, and I waited for it--when are they going to caveat that he doesn't flip his hips because of his height? It never came. In fact, he had surprisingly fluid hips! Minnesota's Pro Day is later this week, so maybe I'll have more or less to say then, but for now this is my mid-round favorite to take knowing he might even be able to play STAR or inside/outside with development and experience for us. He has the effort and physicality for me to envision him making it work inside (especially if his long speed comes into question at this week's Pro Day)

Round 5, Pick 173: Derrick Barnes
LB Purdue 6'0" 238, 4.57 40, 37" vert, 29 reps
This might be too low for Barnes; maybe he goes in round 4. Then again, maybe St-Juste goes here in round 5? It's a tough year to project. Barnes is a favorite sleeper of a couple of board dwellers, if I recall, and is absolutely a movable piece with plenty of instincts and athletic ability for the D. He's available late because having moved around a bit, his strengths (blitz/pass rush) and his size (smallish) don't align in a way that makes his usage entirely obvious. His move to playing all off-ball is more recent and thus less developed and less studied. In short, we get a bargain because Purdue didn't have a plan for their best defender.


Round 5, Pick 178: Brady Christensen
OT BYU 6'6" 302, 32 1/2 arms, 4.89 40, 7.33 3-cone, 4.46 shuttle, 34 vert, 28 reps
Christensen is an absolutely perfect developmental OT for a zone-heavy run scheme. I mean perfect. He' athletic, he's proficient, he's technically sound, but he needs to add weight and play strength. Our OL picks under Gutey have gone a bit heavier and less athletic than in the past, so I wouldn't be surprised if I'm missing the boat on this projection and we instead go for more of a road grader. But I'm HOPING we stick with what worked for years in finding athletic Day Three guys to develop and fit the scheme.

Round 6, Pick 214: Jimmy Morrissey
C Pitt 6'3" 303, 32 1/8 arms, 7.48 3-cone, 4.46 shuttle, 31 vert, 26 reps
Morrissey appears to have added a little weight for the pre-draft process trying to shed the "undersized" label, but he's a technically-sound C-only prospect who can likely plug and play pretty early in his career. His bust potential is very low; the question is whether he's solid enough to be your top backup or solid consistently enough to be your starter. But low risk OL help at this point in the draft is great. If he's not available I like Drake Jackson and Cole Banwart as Cs that need to add some strength but are very smart and sound at the position.


Round 6, Pick 220: Chris Evans
RB Michigan 5'11" 211, 4.44 40, 6.56 3-cone, 4.14 shuttle, 40.5 vert, 20 reps
Chris Evans is Antonio Gibson--very very few reps, almost nothing on tape. That's because after he broke out as a freshman, he was suspended his sophomore year for something to do with academics, and then split time with Karan Higdon upon his return. But he is DYNAMIC, especially in the passing game. He's nowhere on the lists, so I don't know if this is the right draft stock for a guy like this, but he boosted hs profile a bit at the Senior Bowl and with a lights out Pro Day.


Round 7, Pick 256: Avery Williams
CB/ST Boise St 5'9" 190
Williams may only be a depth piece at nickel corner, but he's the best special teams player in the draft. He won Mountain West ST player of the year in back to back years. I believe he has 8 career TDs on returns, plus at least 2 blocked kicks, a recovered fumble, and a forced fumble. He doesn't look like a 4.2/4.3 blazer, he just sees the field well and has a knack for the teams. If you want to get better on STs, you have to bring in the best.


Undrafted Free Agents
WR/ST Jalen Camp: 6'2" 226, 4.43 40, 7.02 3-cone, 4.16 shuttle, 40 vert, 30 reps - core 4 ST at Georgia Tech and WR in a run-first O
LB/ST Nick Nieman: 6'3" 234, 4.45 40, 6.67 3-cone, 4.14 shuttle, 33.5 vert, 19 reps - developmental all-around LB flashed on D at Iowa
RB Kene Nwangwu: 6'0" 212, 4.29 40, 6.75 3-cone, 4.15 shuttle, 37 vert, 22 reps - achiles injury left him in a reserve role; bigtime leadership and traits

[YoHoChecko]

I didn't include any here, but if we had an extra 4th or 5th, I'd take a swing on an EDGE project like Chauncey Golston or Ellerson Smith. Smith's ceiling is sky high but has a lot of work... he would be a 3rd Smith brother, though, which is fun. Golston's scouting report reads like Za'Darius Smith's and their measurables are almost identical. He's a high-motor over-sized pass rusher who lines up inside and out and is firey and good at hand fighting, but isn't an elite speed-and-bend around-the-corner type. I'd love to develop Smith's replacement with such a similar prospect while Gary becomes his own beast.

If I wanted to add some picks there are some interesting trades I like (which I know is weird but sometimes I just spot a nice value)

Trading out of the first if we're willing to go back as far as 41 to the Lions and the inter-division orgs can work together, I LOVE the idea of giving our 1st and our later 5th (178) to get 41 (2nd), 101 (comp 3rd), and 112 (4th) to really max out that late 3rd/early 4th spot in the draft.


I like the idea of dropping out of late round 2 (62) into early round 3 (70) with the Eagles for the Dolphins' 4th (123)

Both deals work out almost perfectly. Things to think about.

[Labrev]

Nice. I like using early picks on WR and CB and double/triple-dipping on them later. I like Bateman a lot; he looks like a guy who can be the complete package. Adebo is a really intriguing prospect that I would be excited to see here.

I don't really know much about those other prospects, but I like the allocation by position: DL relatively early and mid/late value picks at OL make a lot of sense.

[YoHoChecko]

Nice. I like using early picks on WR and CB and double/triple-dipping on them later. I like Bateman a lot; he looks like a guy who can be the complete package. Adebo is a really intriguing prospect that I would be excited to see here.

I don't really know much about those other prospects, but I like the allocation by position: DL relatively early and mid/late value picks at OL make a lot of sense.

Thanks!

I'm about 3 more videos on Bateman from moving from trading out of the first and still getting him to being willing to move up a little. I am really liking him. Like you said: total package.

And yeah, I love mid/late OL picks. No need to break from it at present.

[TheSkeptic]

I thought that the goal this year was to not have our #1 pick warm the pine all season. Maybe I am wrong but this kid you are advocating at #34 has zero chance of replacing Adams, baring Adams going on season ending IR.

And he has slim chance of starting at WR#2 also because he is not big enough and likely does not know how to block in the running game. You are going to ask him to block a LB or a safety as Lazard routinely does - really?

In the slot? But I thought the goal was to have the Packers base be 2 TE's? Or a TE and an H-back and then there is no slot.

Stay at #29 and draft Zaven Collins or Alex Leatherwood or Sam Cosmi No problems with the rest of your mock but this frees you up to take another CB instead of a lineman later in your draft if you want.

[Packfntk]

I thought that the goal this year was to not have our #1 pick warm the pine all season. Maybe I am wrong but this kid you are advocating at #34 has zero chance of replacing Adams, baring Adams going on season ending IR.

And he has slim chance of starting at WR#2 also because he is not big enough and likely does not know how to block in the running game. You are going to ask him to block a LB or a safety as Lazard routinely does - really?

In the slot? But I thought the goal was to have the Packers base be 2 TE's? Or a TE and an H-back and then there is no slot.

Stay at #29 and draft Zaven Collins or Alex Leatherwood or Sam Cosmi

Yeah, I highly disagree with this. Bateman starts day 1 if he is a Packer.

[go pak go]

Insert *I don't like the position with the first pick*

I think Bateman is on my list of players of "absolutely take if he is there at 29"

This guy is a 1st round grade WR in my books. He also gives the Packers huge leverage going into 2022 as at least having a WR who is returning.

I have such a crush on the Washington DT and Jay Tufele that anyone else at this point just sounds dirty. I have bought into the Wilson is a bust hype so I am glad you pulled me from the ledge and took him round 3.

I looooove Adebo in round 2. I think Adebo and Newsome are my top two realistic picks for the Packers top CB taken in the draft at this point.

[TheSkeptic]

I thought that the goal this year was to not have our #1 pick warm the pine all season. Maybe I am wrong but this kid you are advocating at #34 has zero chance of replacing Adams, baring Adams going on season ending IR.

And he has slim chance of starting at WR#2 also because he is not big enough and likely does not know how to block in the running game. You are going to ask him to block a LB or a safety as Lazard routinely does - really?

In the slot? But I thought the goal was to have the Packers base be 2 TE's? Or a TE and an H-back and then there is no slot.

Stay at #29 and draft Zaven Collins or Alex Leatherwood or Sam Cosmi

Yeah, I highly disagree with this. Bateman starts day 1 if he is a Packer.

So you are advocating benching Adams??? Or trading him? AR might not like that idea. And what was the point of resigning Aaron Jones and drafting Dillon if the Packers are going back to being a pure passing team?

[go pak go]

I thought that the goal this year was to not have our #1 pick warm the pine all season. Maybe I am wrong but this kid you are advocating at #34 has zero chance of replacing Adams, baring Adams going on season ending IR.

And he has slim chance of starting at WR#2 also because he is not big enough and likely does not know how to block in the running game. You are going to ask him to block a LB or a safety as Lazard routinely does - really?

In the slot? But I thought the goal was to have the Packers base be 2 TE's? Or a TE and an H-back and then there is no slot.

Stay at #29 and draft Zaven Collins or Alex Leatherwood or Sam Cosmi

Yeah, I highly disagree with this. Bateman starts day 1 if he is a Packer.

So you are advocating benching Adams??? Or trading him? AR might not like that idea. And what was the point of resigning Aaron Jones and drafting Dillon if the Packers are going back to being a pure passing team?

And why are you only looking at the draft pick on a 1st year basis?

The amount of WRs on the Packers who are currently under contract in 2022

1.

That's why getting a WR isn't bad idea. I would invite a top end CB at that first pick more and if the Packers actually go ILB I will be elated because they actually went ILB....but nothing wrong with getting a WR who I believe is a legitimate 1st round WR.

But most importantly, Round 1 especially, just draft good players. Don't let the position group dictate your decision. The most important thing for Round 1 is not that you drafted a player at a needed position, but instead that you have a player who is going to be successful for your team. We especially need that. I would say the biggest fault of the 2010's Green Bay Packers is our 1st round hit rate wasn't good enough. So if we draft a Bateman and he just sits and learns in 2021 but then sees increased production in 2022 and takes off in 2023....that's a hit and that's about as successful of a pick as anyone can ask.

[go pak go]

The Packers since their SB has essentially two players I would call successful picks in the 1st round.

1. Kenny Clark
2. Jaire Alexander

The only other player who was offered a legitimate 2nd contract (let's call it a 2.5 contract) was Nick Perry. Overall I can't chaulk that selection up to a bad pick, but how they handled Nick with that 1 year prove it deal when Nick said he would have accepted a 2 year for $10 million was stupid.

But we got to do better than essentially a 20% - 30% hit rate in 8 - 9 years.

That is why Gary and Savage are so important to the Packers success in 2021. Because if they end up hits, you are then looking at 4 out of 5 hits of 1st round picks in 4 years.

[BSA]

I would say the biggest fault of the 2010's Green Bay Packers is our 1st round hit rate wasn't good enough.

Some hits and some misses for sure.
Here's one spreadsheet I came across that shows Approximate Value expected and achieved. This one is set for the seasons 2010 -2020 and you click on Packers in the Team dropdown box. Packers were over the predicted AV in 6 drafts, under in 3 and 2020 is unknown at this early stage. Just an interesting way look at it - and you can click on the individual year and it will bring up the draft class for that season so you can see how each player did in terms of expected/ achieved AV. Packers average rank in that time frame was 11.7 out of 32

https://danmorse.shinyapps.io/nfl-draft ... pectation/

[Backthepack4ever]

I thought that the goal this year was to not have our #1 pick warm the pine all season. Maybe I am wrong but this kid you are advocating at #34 has zero chance of replacing Adams, baring Adams going on season ending IR.

And he has slim chance of starting at WR#2 also because he is not big enough and likely does not know how to block in the running game. You are going to ask him to block a LB or a safety as Lazard routinely does - really?

In the slot? But I thought the goal was to have the Packers base be 2 TE's? Or a TE and an H-back and then there is no slot.

Stay at #29 and draft Zaven Collins or Alex Leatherwood or Sam Cosmi No problems with the rest of your mock but this frees you up to take another CB instead of a lineman later in your draft if you want.

Huh.

Why would Bateman warm the pine. Ive never seen the packers deploy 1 we all game. Why would the pick have to force adams out?? I guess you really lost me. This wr2 stuff is so over blown. Who was the wr2 on the chiefs or bucs. Give me a room full of guys that can play and be threats. Bateman plays on any and every team year 1


Now I like some other guys more but I agree thst hes a future stud and his game mirrors adams. Not the mist explosive or homerun guy but dang he will just slowly eat you alive. The footwork and body control in year 3 will be pro bowler

Moving along

Adebo is so hit and miss right now. He could be a long time starter. I dont see great but like a t will type. Or he could be what Josh Jackson is. Some tape hes grabby but i think the tools arw there

Wilson is again all upside. 5 star guy that didnt get it done....yet. He hustles so maybe he clicks

After that if Rodgers is a packer I'll do unspeakable things ha

Christensen might be a second-rounder he's getting buzzed right now but what a steal

Great mock Yoho. Homerun.

[go pak go]

A few key words I am saying no to on prospects this year.

1. Tight hips.
2. Hot and cold motor. The coaches will need work to get him "inspired" or whatever.

I am so done with those types of players. I do like that about Wilson. Motor never seemed to be an issue of why he didn't succeed.

[texas]

Gutekunst should be inquiring about Isaiah Simmons. Arizona drafted him #8 overall and then largely had him fill in as a backup, which you wouldn't think they would do for someone as talented as that, so maybe they don't like him for whatever reason.

That's my mock offseason plan. That and sign Richard Sherman.

[YoHoChecko]

A few key words I am saying no to on prospects this year.

1. Tight hips.
2. Hot and cold motor. The coaches will need work to get him "inspired" or whatever.

I am so done with those types of players. I do like that about Wilson. Motor never seemed to be an issue of why he didn't succeed.

Did you see my shoutout to your #1 rule in the St-Juste write-up?

And yes, I think the Wilson talk here has been responsible, but elsewhere it gets a little fuzzy. When you look at a big man who had a lot of hype but never put it together, the initial thought is that he's a) all tools or b) lazy/not motivated.

But this is a big man who plays hard as heck. And in the run game, his technique isn't a red flag or anything. He's just a guy that never developed a pass rush. And in the late third round, I'm fine if he doesn't develop one and we're in luck if he does.

I think we've got such a top-heavy, star-laden roster that I, too, am looking a bit at some lunch pail types, in terms of gritty work ethic and playing style--who could develop into more but have solid role-playing floors. Avoiding motor questions. That's why a guy like Jalen Camp stood out to me as a late round flier or FA--his coach talks up how badly he wants to be a core-4 guy at the next level. There's an undersized CB named Dicaprio Bootle that I feel the same way about. So these things are on my radar.

I feel like our roster and window are at the point where focusing on STs-savvy players makes a ton of sense. Great way for young players to make a positive contribution we have little room for from scrimmage, and lost of future needs at athletic positions like CB and WR that can develop.

[YoHoChecko]

After that if Rodgers is a packer I'll do unspeakable things ha

Christensen might be a second-rounder he's getting buzzed right now but what a steal

Great mock Yoho. Homerun.

I genuinely can't figure out the OTs. There are like 15 guys who could start at RT in this draft and every few weeks the right people mention that "so and so is an obvious starter at the next level but is available on day 3?" the player gets buzz and now maybe they're out of reach.

They can't all go.

I will say I think this draft is a stretch. It was a way to stake my claim on guys I really like while expressing the value where I would be happy to take them. So I err on the side of "what a steal!"

[go pak go]

A few key words I am saying no to on prospects this year.

1. Tight hips.
2. Hot and cold motor. The coaches will need work to get him "inspired" or whatever.

I am so done with those types of players. I do like that about Wilson. Motor never seemed to be an issue of why he didn't succeed.

Did you see my shoutout to your #1 rule in the St-Juste write-up?

Hahaha. Oh you know I did. The Draft Network hates St Juste or they at least say "tight hips" so I wrote him off a few weeks ago. Then you came here a few weeks ago and keep singing his praises and how he is looser in the hips.

You get me really excited about him. I think especially if we can get some guys who can play that Raven Greene or STAR role....I am all in.

[YoHoChecko]

Hahaha. Oh you know I did. The Draft Network hates St Juste or they at least say "tight hips" so I wrote him off a few weeks ago. Then you came here a few weeks ago and keep singing his praises and how he is looser in the hips.

Most of what I have heard on him was from Senior Bowl week, admittedly--and of course the people who comment say they've gone back and watched more. But they said they didn't see the his tightness they expected at that size.

My main concern about this draft is that with King, Jackson, Hollman, Adebo, and St-Juste I'm not SURE we have anyone who can play inside. Like maybe to both of the guys I drafted. But can't do much better than maybe on them. If there was an Elijah Molden-type or even our board fave Asante Samuel Jr, it's easy to see it work. Both of these guys I'm projecting more.

And that Boise St guy is depth on defense. Admittedly the only tape I could find of him at CB was from two years ago but it was...not good. That's a ST pick and depth. It would shock me if he develops into a starter even inside based on what I saw.

[YoHoChecko]

I thought that the goal this year was to not have our #1 pick warm the pine all season. Maybe I am wrong but this kid you are advocating at #34 has zero chance of replacing Adams, baring Adams going on season ending IR.

And he has slim chance of starting at WR#2 also because he is not big enough and likely does not know how to block in the running game. You are going to ask him to block a LB or a safety as Lazard routinely does - really?

In the slot? But I thought the goal was to have the Packers base be 2 TE's? Or a TE and an H-back and then there is no slot.

All these comments have been a wild wild ride, but just to address it...

...yeah the #1WR/#2WR thing I talked about in my description was like a broad view of what I need to see from a WR prospect to think he can be a head guy and center of an offensive passing game. I was saying Bateman has that upside.

The role on the team and talk about "challenging Adams to be our top target" was over time. Like in 2025 Adams is on the decline and Bateman is hitting his prime, who is better? I think that could be a conversation.

But also, Lazard wasn't even our "#2" last year. He mostly worked as a big slot and MVS worked outside. And Bateman is MUCH better than both of those guys. Both of them. All he needs is to learn the offense.

Furthermore, I have NEVER said the idea was to have first rounders who start right away. I've explicitly said that I don;'t care and we shouldn't count on first-year starters.

But since WRs are on the field 1 to 4 at a time, and injuries happen, a rookie WR would obviously see the field some for our team. And his impact will just be a matter of time if he hits. And like everyone said, we have literally zero WRs under contract 12 months from right now. Zero.

[go pak go]

My main concern about this draft is that with King, Jackson, Hollman, Adebo, and St-Juste I'm not SURE we have anyone who can play inside. Like maybe to both of the guys I drafted. But can't do much better than maybe on them. If there was an Elijah Molden-type or even our board fave Asante Samuel Jr, it's easy to see it work. Both of these guys I'm projecting more.

And that Boise St guy is depth on defense. Admittedly the only tape I could find of him at CB was from two years ago but it was...not good. That's a ST pick and depth. It would shock me if he develops into a starter even inside based on what I saw.

Yeah I mean Molden, Aaron Robinson and Samuel seem like the best fits for that interior spot. But Samual is weird for me after his pro day. Like Adebo kicked him out of the park in the agility and speed drills. So just because Samuel is short...why would I think he should be this great interior corner?

I do like Samuel's attitude though. Again I go back to attitude with these guys. I want another annoying Jaire Alexander.

I have watched more of St Juste's film. He doesn't look terrible, but he certainly doesn't look fluid enough for me. I look at St Juste as more of that 3rd safety role than a corner for us. I'm not as high on him as you are. But this could also just be me overreacting because I want fluidity like nothing else this draft in the 2ndary.