Aaron Freaking Rodgers

[Yoop]

As I said in the "Who's The 2nd Best QB in NFCN" thread, Love has nice tools and is in an ideal situation to realize his upside/potential.

The problem with the pick for me is... we in all likelihood have cut Rodgers' time here short by making it. And that aspect of the pick is what keeps me from liking it where I feel like I otherwise would. Oh, and we gave up a 4th to do it, so it's not even like he just "fell in our lap."

And to the general refrain that you don't know that, maybe we will keep Rodgers and trade Love away... Andrew Brandt said it best, you do not make that pick not to start the guy sometime down the line; I doubt this is a Garoppolo situation. Also, Jimmy G was a 2nd, not a 1st. Even if we do, likely no move that we make will recoup the value of a 1st & 4th (which we used while entering a SB window).

I did not expect Rodgers to bounce back as dramatically as he did this past season, but I did think we would get a better idea of what we could expect of him going forward after another year fully-adjusted to MLF's system.

Yet even if Rodgers did not return to MVP form, I think there is great value in a QB who is at the point in his career when he transitions his "prime" -- where his loads of talent sets him apart -- to the savvy craftsmanship where he wins with his brains, and I thought that Rodgers' very mistake-free game would allow him (with help of a coach better than Mac) to transition into that role nicely.

Now, if he'd stayed at his 2017-2019 level, I think you would have had a real compelling argument that Rodgers is more valuable to this team as trade bait than its starting QB and that it's time to clear the way for a replacement. But, here we are.

what led you to believe Rodgers wouldn't regain the form thats made him one of the best in the league after the first year learning a scheme he'd never QB'd before, he had to go through the old dog new tricks time frame, who wouldn't?

prior to 019 he dealt with almost a full rookie cast of impact players on offense, young Rb's, and a bunch of young mid talent WR's, a lesser QB and we would have been lucky to win more then a few games.

I think people take having one of the very best QB's in the game for granted, any time the team fails it's Rodgers fault, he had a receiver open, or he didn't throw a great pass, thing is Rodgers does these things less then just about any other QB in the league, still being less then perfect is not allowed for Rodgers, I listen to this stuff wondering what people will be saying when he's gone, maybe Love will be a smooth transition, but the QB position is as much a mental thing as athletic, thats why only about 2 out of 5 amount to much in the NFL, anyone that thinks LOve has it, the odds are against it, and we wont know that till the bullets are flying

[Drj820]

Aaron Rodgers has made a lot of people very rich in GB. Lots of people that wouldnt have lasted very long made generational wealth because Rodgers won divisions of what would be 4 win teams without him. Putting him through a situation where the team waits and sees who they think is better between him and Love in 2023 is how he spends the rest of his career beating us in Chicago.

[go pak go]

Actually, there is one foreseeable event that does make the Love pick defensible: our cap situation gets VERY tight next offseason (and the next). So we may have to choose between a talented young roster -or- an elite QB, and having a good QB waiting in the wings helps make that decision easier.

The Packers really don't have any incentive on cutting Rodgers in 2022. Even for cap space. Like it is just not really a factor.

Next year Rodgers will hit $37 million on the cap and $17 million dead cap. Yes we can save $22 million by outright cutting Rodgers, but we can also punt $12.5 million into 2023 by converting base salary to signing bonus; which I guarantee we will do.

The only reason we move on from Rodgers after the 2021 season is because Jordan Love is absolutely ready and every fan knows it.

We still have plenty of flexibility next year (as long as the cap jumps as we need it) to where we should be able to get by. 2023 on the other hand....that's the year where we likely have to answer for or decisions.

[YoHoChecko]

I hate hearing logic when it goes against my desire to draft Justin Jefferson

I mean, not to open this can of worms, but my logic doesn't refute you.

It's perfectly valid to look at the draft and say "had we traded a 3rd to move up to 19 or 20 instead of a 4th to move up to 26, we could have taken Justin Jefferson and a late 4th rounder... I dunno Jack Driscoll or Amik Robertson or Brycen Hopkins or Kolton McKivitz... instead of Love and Deguara.

And we undeniably would have been better off in 2020 with Justin Jefferson on the team at the expense of Love and Deguara.

But we also have to accept that a) hindsight plays a large role in that. And b) we did not do that, so there is no "undoing." There is no "we should try to revert back to a world in which we did not draft Love by trading him and committing to Rodgers for the next 4 years and call it a day."

For hindsight:
1) we did not know where we'd have to move to get Jefferson
2) We could not know that Jefferson would be everything he was advertised to be and more while Ayiuk and Reagor were... not
3) We could not know that Rodgers' play would be 20-30% better in 2020 than it was in 2018 or 2019
4) We could not know that Deguara would be injured and miss most of his rookie season

It's ALWAYS easy to go back and say "I wish we had taken player X when he was available" especially when you wanted that player in the first place. But when you do so with a move that involves having to have made a trade, you're ALWAYS dealing with a lot of guesswork that only seems simple after-the-fact. You're also assuming trade partners were available to us.

But the broader point is not that you shouldn't wish we drafted Jefferson. It's that we didn't. And a year has passed now. And I have no problem reminding people of my opinions that proved to be right nor should anyone else here. But there's also a need to move into reality. The reality in which we did draft Jordan Love, it has put several options on the table for the future of our QB position over the next several years, and those options and decisions do not need to be made (nor can they be made on an informed basis) for another year or two.

So huge debates and threads and accusations of disrespect or mismanagement just don't seem to make a ton of sense right now. Once the pick was made, we entered a reality where the debate won't be "active" or relevant until sometime during the 2022 season when we start to look forward from there. And the amount of time and energy and analysis being devoted to it now will not solve anything, nor should it.

[Pugger]

I hate hearing logic when it goes against my desire to draft Justin Jefferson

I mean, not to open this can of worms, but my logic doesn't refute you.

It's perfectly valid to look at the draft and say "had we traded a 3rd to move up to 19 or 20 instead of a 4th to move up to 26, we could have taken Justin Jefferson and a late 4th rounder... I dunno Jack Driscoll or Amik Robertson or Brycen Hopkins or Kolton McKivitz... instead of Love and Deguara.

And we undeniably would have been better off in 2020 with Justin Jefferson on the team at the expense of Love and Deguara.

But we also have to accept that a) hindsight plays a large role in that. And b) we did not do that, so there is no "undoing." There is no "we should try to revert back to a world in which we did not draft Love by trading him and committing to Rodgers for the next 4 years and call it a day."

For hindsight:
1) we did not know where we'd have to move to get Jefferson
2) We could not know that Jefferson would be everything he was advertised to be and more while Ayiuk and Reagor were... not
3) We could not know that Rodgers' play would be 20-30% better in 2020 than it was in 2018 or 2019
4) We could not know that Deguara would be injured and miss most of his rookie season

It's ALWAYS easy to go back and say "I wish we had taken player X when he was available" especially when you wanted that player in the first place. But when you do so with a move that involves having to have made a trade, you're ALWAYS dealing with a lot of guesswork that only seems simple after-the-fact. You're also assuming trade partners were available to us.

But the broader point is not that you shouldn't wish we drafted Jefferson. It's that we didn't. And a year has passed now. And I have no problem reminding people of my opinions that proved to be right nor should anyone else here. But there's also a need to move into reality. The reality in which we did draft Jordan Love, it has put several options on the table for the future of our QB position over the next several years, and those options and decisions do not need to be made (nor can they be made on an informed basis) for another year or two.

So huge debates and threads and accusations of disrespect or mismanagement just don't seem to make a ton of sense right now. Once the pick was made, we entered a reality where the debate won't be "active" or relevant until sometime during the 2022 season when we start to look forward from there. And the amount of time and energy and analysis being devoted to it now will not solve anything, nor should it.

We would have had to give MN a lot more than a 3rd to move up 8 slots to take Jefferson. I can't imagine MN would be eager to make a deal with a divisional rival like that.

[go pak go]

We would have had to give MN a lot more than a 3rd to move up 8 slots to take Jefferson. I can't imagine MN would be eager to make a deal with a divisional rival like that.

That's why you would have to jump MN and not trade with them. We likely would have had to trade with Jacksonville. Maybe Philly.

[paco]

Don't forget to break out your VCRs and TIVOs!

[Labrev]

what led you to believe Rodgers wouldn't regain the form thats made him one of the best in the league after the first year learning a scheme he'd never QB'd before

I didn't think that he definitely wouldn't regain MVP form, I just did not see it as a sure thing.

I thought a more reasonable projection would have been improvement from "good enough, middle-of-the-road" to "very good, Top 10 QB."

He exceeded that expectation, to which I am pleasantly surprised, but not shocked, because I never believed that reversion to MVP form was improbable, either.

[go pak go]

what led you to believe Rodgers wouldn't regain the form thats made him one of the best in the league after the first year learning a scheme he'd never QB'd before

I didn't think that he definitely wouldn't regain MVP form, I just did not see it as a sure thing.

I thought a more reasonable projection would have been improvement from "good enough, middle-of-the-road" to "very good, Top 10 QB."

He exceeded that expectation, to which I am pleasantly surprised, but not shocked, because I never believed that reversion to MVP form was improbable, either.

Agreed.

If we put ourselves at the end of 2019, we were at a time where we only saw "old prime Aaron Rodgers" for basically a 6 to 7 game stretch (end of 2016) out of essentially a 6 year window.

[Yoop]

I hate hearing logic when it goes against my desire to draft Justin Jefferson

the laughing emoticon was added to show that Logic was indeed accounted for, it was meant to be a joke obviously I know I was working from hindsight, and I've accepted the Love pick, as you say it's been a year, but I still don't agree with the pick, and I've mentioned why.

and NO one knows what it would have taken to move up and take JJ, NO one, could have ended up being a 3rd and a 6th or 7th, or a player, funny how Guty would trade a 4th for HIS QB, but unwilling to spend a little more for a player that would make a difference in his rookie contract.

[Yoop]

what led you to believe Rodgers wouldn't regain the form thats made him one of the best in the league after the first year learning a scheme he'd never QB'd before

I didn't think that he definitely wouldn't regain MVP form, I just did not see it as a sure thing.

I thought a more reasonable projection would have been improvement from "good enough, middle-of-the-road" to "very good, Top 10 QB."

He exceeded that expectation, to which I am pleasantly surprised, but not shocked, because I never believed that reversion to MVP form was improbable, either.

Agreed.

If we put ourselves at the end of 2019, we were at a time where we only saw "old prime Aaron Rodgers" for basically a 6 to 7 game stretch (end of 2016) out of essentially a 6 year window.

you have never accepted the reason for the Rodgers decline from 016 through 019, and I'am beyond tired of pointing out the reasons, except that it had very little to do with him, extending plays are most often the result of players not open on schedule, and just because one does clear later Rodgers can't focus 60 yrds wide,

[go pak go]

I didn't think that he definitely wouldn't regain MVP form, I just did not see it as a sure thing.

I thought a more reasonable projection would have been improvement from "good enough, middle-of-the-road" to "very good, Top 10 QB."

He exceeded that expectation, to which I am pleasantly surprised, but not shocked, because I never believed that reversion to MVP form was improbable, either.

Agreed.

If we put ourselves at the end of 2019, we were at a time where we only saw "old prime Aaron Rodgers" for basically a 6 to 7 game stretch (end of 2016) out of essentially a 6 year window.

you have never accepted the reason for the Rodgers decline from 016 through 019, and I'am beyond tired of pointing out the reasons, except that it had very little to do with him, extending plays are most often the result of players not open on schedule, and just because one does clear later Rodgers can't focus 60 yrds wide,

It actually pretty much was since December 2014 when he got hurt at Tampa until September 2020.

The "why" is irrelevant in this conversation. 1) - because we are talking about a span of 5 years (less basically a 7 game stretch in 2016) and 2) - I was only saying that as support to why it could be thought Rodgers would never get back to MVP level.

But he did. And he and all of his offensive support and coaching staff deserves so much accolades for getting back to that point. It was amazing watching that offense last year.

But if you are tired to pointing out the reasons why Rodgers was a top 8 to 12 QB in the league for 5 years....then don't. Because I'm not interested in talking about that either. That has been hashed out enough. And I think we all agree there are a multitude of variables that changed to bring back Rodgers to the top of the league.

[Yoop]

Agreed.

If we put ourselves at the end of 2019, we were at a time where we only saw "old prime Aaron Rodgers" for basically a 6 to 7 game stretch (end of 2016) out of essentially a 6 year window.

you have never accepted the reason for the Rodgers decline from 016 through 019, and I'am beyond tired of pointing out the reasons, except that it had very little to do with him, extending plays are most often the result of players not open on schedule, and just because one does clear later Rodgers can't focus 60 yrds wide,

It actually pretty much was since December 2014 when he got hurt at Tampa until September 2020.

The "why" is irrelevant in this conversation. 1) - because we are talking about a span of 5 years (less basically a 7 game stretch in 2016) and 2) - I was only saying that as support to why it could be thought Rodgers would never get back to MVP level.

But he did. And he and all of his offensive support and coaching staff deserves so much accolades for getting back to that point. It was amazing watching that offense last year.

But if you are tired to pointing out the reasons why Rodgers was a top 8 to 12 QB in the league for 5 years....then don't. Because I'm not interested in talking about that either. That has been hashed out enough. And I think we all agree there are a multitude of variables that changed to bring back Rodgers to the top of the league.

the only thing you can use to rate him a #8 to 12 QB are the stats which completely leaves out supporting cast,and imo that makes a big difference, plus McCarthys Schemes that didn't fit the players we did have.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/mv ... r-BB1dq9j9

[Acrobat]

you have never accepted the reason for the Rodgers decline from 016 through 019, and I'am beyond tired of pointing out the reasons, except that it had very little to do with him, extending plays are most often the result of players not open on schedule, and just because one does clear later Rodgers can't focus 60 yrds wide,

It actually pretty much was since December 2014 when he got hurt at Tampa until September 2020.

The "why" is irrelevant in this conversation. 1) - because we are talking about a span of 5 years (less basically a 7 game stretch in 2016) and 2) - I was only saying that as support to why it could be thought Rodgers would never get back to MVP level.

But he did. And he and all of his offensive support and coaching staff deserves so much accolades for getting back to that point. It was amazing watching that offense last year.

But if you are tired to pointing out the reasons why Rodgers was a top 8 to 12 QB in the league for 5 years....then don't. Because I'm not interested in talking about that either. That has been hashed out enough. And I think we all agree there are a multitude of variables that changed to bring back Rodgers to the top of the league.

the only thing you can use to rate him a #8 to 12 QB are the stats which completely leaves out supporting cast,and imo that makes a big difference, plus McCarthys Schemes that didn't fit the players we did have.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/mv ... r-BB1dq9j9

Yeah but Rodgers was also flat out missing wide open throws too.

[paco]

I set my DVR to record Jeopardy today. All set for the Rodgers run at hosting! Here's a story from Demovsky about it.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/311 ... guest-host

image.png (572.92 KiB) Viewed 466 times

[Drj820]

As bad as Rodgers looked during those years, we fired the GM for a reason. There had become massive holes in talent on the roster. Not sure the exact time frame we are talking about but I know Rodgers missed tons of time in ‘17 with an injury and we won 7 games, and played hurt the entire next year and we won 6 games. As bad as people want to remember it was the couple years before that we still went 10-6 and made the playoffs. Every team since the ‘14 team is probably a 5 win team tops without 12 carrying them based on roster talent and McCarthy talent. He may not have been MVP those years, but like I always say, you would hate to see the team for long without him.

[go pak go]

I always hate the "we would be terrible without X starting quarterback" argument because that same thing can be said for every team in the league.

News alert. If you don't have a good starting quarterback, you're probably going to suck outside of some outliers who were able to only be an outlier for one season.

Teams that come to mind are 2017 Jaguars, 2017, Eagles, 2017 Vikings (are you noticing a pattern here?), 2019 49ers, 2018 & 2020 LA Rams.

So either have a good roster during a season when all other teams with elite QBs stink or are hurt or be the LA Rams. The 49ers are where they are because of 8 years of top 5 picks and they got lucky with timing in 2018 to have their starter go out giving them the shot at Bosa.

I will also give a shoutout to the Saints. They actually were able to keep the train rolling with horrible or inconsistent quarterback play. They may be the best example honestly.

[go pak go]

[Yoop]

I always hate the "we would be terrible without X starting quarterback" argument because that same thing can be said for every team in the league.

News alert. If you don't have a good starting quarterback, you're probably going to suck outside of some outliers who were able to only be an outlier for one season.

Teams that come to mind are 2017 Jaguars, 2017, Eagles, 2017 Vikings (are you noticing a pattern here?), 2019 49ers, 2018 & 2020 LA Rams.

So either have a good roster during a season when all other teams with elite QBs stink or are hurt or be the LA Rams. The 49ers are where they are because of 8 years of top 5 picks and they got lucky with timing in 2018 to have their starter go out giving them the shot at Bosa.

I will also give a shoutout to the Saints. They actually were able to keep the train rolling with horrible or inconsistent quarterback play. They may be the best example honestly.

sure take the pitcher out of the game and no one gets a hit, we all get that, but some situations are different then others, obviously if you have a seasoned backup losing the starter may not cost you as many losses, Rodgers just joked in that video that teams need more then one backup, rather 3 or even 4, obvious comedy, but I've always thought a team should carry a backup and a groomer as we did last year.


the whole point here is that switching Rodgers with almost any other starter in the league and the rest of our offense (specially prior to last year, and we probably wouldn't have made the playoffs, or at least would have struggled more then we did.

Acrobat: please provide a list of QB's that don't throw air balls, sure some are obvious misses, others that appear to be could be the fault of the receiver, but every QB throws a errant ball.

[Drj820]

I always hate the "we would be terrible without X starting quarterback" argument because that same thing can be said for every team in the league.

News alert. If you don't have a good starting quarterback, you're probably going to suck outside of some outliers who were able to only be an outlier for one season.

Teams that come to mind are 2017 Jaguars, 2017, Eagles, 2017 Vikings (are you noticing a pattern here?), 2019 49ers, 2018 & 2020 LA Rams.

So either have a good roster during a season when all other teams with elite QBs stink or are hurt or be the LA Rams. The 49ers are where they are because of 8 years of top 5 picks and they got lucky with timing in 2018 to have their starter go out giving them the shot at Bosa.

I will also give a shoutout to the Saints. They actually were able to keep the train rolling with horrible or inconsistent quarterback play. They may be the best example honestly.

You can add the Patriots with ole Matt castle to your list too. I think your point actually helps my argument so thank you. Basically you say a good qb can save an incomplete roster (I agree). But then show how an elite qb can leave and teams can still win with a competent coach and roster (I agree). Pats, chiefs during mahommes knee injury, Eagles, Saints etc have all shown that a well run team outside of the qb can survive.

Because we could not, it shows how much 12 carries this team. Didnt expect that to be a controversial take.