2021 NFL Draft Discussion

[Labrev]

I like Bateman a lot as well, but I am thinking he may be more of a 2nd-round target than a 1st. Daniel Jeremiah has him ranked in the mid-40 range.

We have had pretty good success with WRs in that round, though.

[BF004]

Just putting it out there that I really hope people post a comprehensive big board before draft day.

Those are essential for non college followers like me to enjoy the draft (my favourite weekend of the season). Following along and crossing off the names is so much fun and it really gives you a sense of where the value might be at certain positions over the weekend.

I know @Waldo used to do them and last year there were a couple of other good ones.

Just wanted to flag this early. Many thanks from across the pond.

Here was last year's, I can try to update it for this year.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1221509688

[go pak go]

That would be awesome to get board Big Boards up again. It is getting that time.

[BF004]

I emailed Kent again and asked me if he can send me the total draft class with their RAS again, he has the past two years.

[mnpackerbacker]

Vikings Jeff Gladney arrested for assault on his girlfriend. Story looks pretty bad. He's probably out of Minny.

Could prompt the Vikes to draft a corner early, maybe one we covet, Peterson is on a one year deal. Hughes probably won't be there past next season.

[paco]

[mention]BF004[/mention] If you are updating big boards for this year, how about the draft contests? I assume there is interest in keeping that going.

[BF004]

Packers.com always does some decent writeups and videos each year.

https://www.packers.com/news/draft-dige ... wr-florida

Toney might just be my favorite player in the draft. Still need to dig in deeper and find reasons why he isn't a consensus top 10 pick right now, but not really seeing anything yet. Guy seems generationally electric.

Packers.com consulted more than a dozen mock drafts from reputable national outlets and compiled a list of players most frequently mocked as draft selections in the bottom third of the first round (picks 20-32).

Between now and draft day, when the Packers are slated to select at No. 29 overall, those players will be profiled with thumbnail sketches in a new series entitled "Draft Digest."

Today's player is …

Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida

Height/Weight: 5-11, 189


Key stats: Caught 70 passes for 984 yards and 10 TDs in 11 games in 2020, his lone season as a full-time starter. Added 580 rushing yards and two TDs over his college career.

College honors: Named first-team All-Southeastern Conference as an all-purpose player last season, and second-team All-SEC at wide receiver.

Background: A speedy, impressive athlete who was a dual-threat QB during high school in Alabama, Toney came to Florida as an all-around offensive weapon who broke out as a receiver last season. An unclogged depth chart combined with the emergence of Florida QB Kyle Trask helped produce the standout year. After missing six games due to injury in 2019, Toney played every contest in 2020 until sitting out Florida's bowl game to prepare for the draft. He's an explosive playmaker with yards-after-catch ability who most analysts say needs to become a more refined route-runner, not unusual for a player relatively new to the position. He reportedly clocked a 4.38-second time in the 40-yard dash at Florida's pro day. Toney also brings plenty of skill in the return game, having brought back a punt for a TD last season.

Potential fit with Packers: Head Coach Matt LaFleur's offense has a place for a prototypical slot receiver who can run jet sweeps as well as intermediate and deep routes. But no one currently on the roster is filling the role previously manned by Tyler Ervin and Tavon Austin, who are both unrestricted free agents. Toney is the type of athlete with whom offensive coaches can get creative, and there's plenty of development in his game that can be refined. He'd also bring an instant upgrade to the Packers' return game, which has struggled the past two years except for the stretch run in 2019 when Ervin arrived.

[BF004]

Right on queue.

[YoHoChecko]

It's very strange to me.

I LOVE guys like Waddle, Toney, and Elijah Moore--these dynamic slot guys who can be gadgets and chain-movers, but who are undersized injury risks with limited roles.

But that last part--the limited roles and undersized aspects.... to me they push them out of top consideration. I know Tyreek Hill is a full-fledged top receiver statistically these days, but a) not all of these guys are him and b) he is in the perfect offense to take advantage of that.

Generally speaking, in terms of draft stock, I would place far more value on guys who are all-around good. I know Smith has a thin frame, but Chase Young, Davonta Smith and Rashod Bateman are my top 3 DRAFT receivers. I like Dyami Brown or Amon-Ra St Brown as being draftable higher than I like Elijah Moore or Kadarius Toney. I wouldn't really want a Waddle, Elijah Moore, Rondale Moore, or Toney before early round two, but preferably a bit later. I'd LOVE to have a guy like that on the team, but the value of a limited player that early scares me off a bit.

I think this is a flaw in my own thinking more than my thinking revealing a flaw in the system, but it's how I feel. It's reminiscent of how last year I had the uncomfortable mental position of watching the team I root for draft players I genuinely like and wanted (Runyan, Deguara, and Dillon) and a QB I don't have qualms with... but felt overwhelmingly like the value (losing a 4th to trade up for the QB, a 2nd on Dillon rather than a 3rd; a 3rd on Deguara rather than a 5th) was lousy. In the long run, we got players I want. In the short run, though, I felt our resources had been mis-used. So I'm torn. Anyway...

I feel like a dynamic slot + gadget receiver should be a 3rd-4th round fit. I know Tyreek Hill fell to round 5 because he beat the snot out of his pregnant girlfriend not because he is "a 5th rounder," but I also think he wouldn't have gone above round 3 or maaaybe mid-round two anyway. I think his success has turned that paradigm on its head a little, but it's left a lot of teams chasing the type of player who will very rarely yield returns of a fulltime player.

I mean think of Percy Harvin or Cordarelle Patteson or Tavon Austin--all had some pretty dynamic flashes in the league but all were eventually relegated to a limited role making their first round status feel like a stretch.

Meanwhile, you look at Randall Cobb or Tyler Lockett--two of my favorite slot receivers in the drafts of the past decade--and they slid into the end of round two, right where I feel like they belong.

Meanwhile, when you look at these guys who are excelling in the league with an all-around game that blends solid-but-not-awesome size, solid-but-not-awesome speed, a drive to be great, and the ability to separate in short areas--think Michael Thomas, Davonte Adams, Deandre Hopkins... they all went in that 25-50 range because... they ran in the 4.5s I guess?

Anyway, that's my long answer to "why Kadarius Toney doesn't belong as a consensus first rounder, but neither maybe does Jalen Waddle"

[Labrev]

Although I doubt it would be very practical in the long-term, I would love to get Toney, if for no other reason than how a weapon like him could make the offense even more lethal while our "window" is still open.

In truth, I have vaguely wanted a guy like that, someone who can make some splash plays in those moments when the O just can't quite seem to get it going (like the first half and Q4 vs. Tampa).

[YoHoChecko]

Although I doubt it would be very practical in the long-term, I would love to get Toney, if for no other reason than how a weapon like him could make the offense even more lethal while our "window" is still open.

In truth, I have vaguely wanted a guy like that, someone who can make some splash plays in those moments when the O just can't quite seem to get it going (like the first half and Q4 vs. Tampa).

Myself and [mention]mnkcarp[/mention] have been advocating for a dynamic "juice" roleplayer either from the RB position or the slot position or both since the comparison of choice involved Bryan Westbrook and Darren Sproles... maybe two forums ago, even. I felt like we got one, sorta, in Cobb. But I yearn for greater and more explicit examples of them, let alone a higher quantity of them.

[go pak go]

Shoutout to my Austin Watkins UAB WR draft pick I selected in the 6th round of my draft.

But this is a great video for names of Packers fits beyond the top 25 Mel Kiper guys.

[BF004]

It's very strange to me.

I LOVE guys like Waddle, Toney, and Elijah Moore--these dynamic slot guys who can be gadgets and chain-movers, but who are undersized injury risks with limited roles.

But that last part--the limited roles and undersized aspects.... to me they push them out of top consideration. I know Tyreek Hill is a full-fledged top receiver statistically these days, but a) not all of these guys are him and b) he is in the perfect offense to take advantage of that.

I also guess I don't agree with the 'slot' receiver usage. I don't think its a real thing, guys can line up anywhere, on the line or off, inside or outside, backfield, whatever, I think it's too simplistic a term.

Also for Toney, I think he has the size and strength to play against bump and run right on the line. Couple that with his COD and speed, no one gunna play him right at the LOS unless its 2 deep. No one would question if Bateman could play outside, but he is nearly the same size as Toney, similar game strength, similar speed, less COD. Toney is 5'11 1/2", 193, Bateman is 6' 0 3/8" and 190. Guess I don't get why one is a consensus 1st rounder, big enough to play outside and the other is a small gadget only guy not worthy of the 1st round.

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I guess I definitely don't just see a jet sweep gadget guy, I definitely see pure, raw, all around WR potential, I don't see anything he lacks, size, speed, hands, what have you.

[YoHoChecko]

Also for Toney, I think he has the size and strength to play against bump and run right on the line. Couple that with his COD and speed, no one gunna play him right at the LOS unless its 2 deep. No one would question if Bateman could play outside, but he is nearly the same size as Toney, similar game strength, similar speed, less COD. Toney is 5'11 1/2", 193, Bateman is 6' 0 3/8" and 190. Guess I don't get why one is a consensus 1st rounder, big enough to play outside and the other is a small gadget only guy not worthy of the 1st round.

I guess I see it a bit less in measurables (though legit response since I referenced them extensively) and more in role and ability.

Toney is not a refined route runner and through his early years at Florida was unable to really stand out. It wasn't until they schemed for him that he took the next step and jumped onto everyone's radar.

To me, a top WR, as I outlined in my mock commentary, is a receiver who can create separation on his own, draw and defeat double teams, and succeed in almost any scheme. That has to do a ton with c.o.d. for sure, but also with refinement, experience, understanding, instincts, and feel.

Bateman has operated as a primary target who plays round the field, contributes in the short, intermediate, and long game, and creates his own opportunities.

Toney has been successful mostly through scheme and exposing 1-on-1 matchups. Same with Waddle and Rondale Moore. MAYBE they can be and do more. Hopefully they can. But the routes they have put on tape and the usage--lots of motions and off-the-l.o.s. releases--has not expressed that they will one day be that player. And with Toney especially, you are left to wonder why the breakout didn't occur earlier, which analytics people have found to be oddly predictive in the WR position (younger breakout age).

The thing about our offense is that we already have a #1 WR and we DO have a coach who can scheme maximal opportunities for a gadget player. So for our team, these guys would be natural fits and would absolutely be a windfall to us. But if MLF dies of COVID next month and Rodgers goes to be the Jeopardy host in 2022 and Adams takes to free agency and gets the eff out.... I'd rather move forward with Bateman on a rookie contract and full schematic flexibility than with Toney and know that the next coach may only be able to extract maximum value from that player in certain schematic ways.

[YoHoChecko]

I guess I definitely don't just see a jet sweep gadget guy, I definitely see pure, raw, all around WR potential, I don't see anything he lacks, size, speed, hands, what have you.

My final note in response to this post is that, yes, there is all-around WR potential. POTENTIAL. And it is raw. That, to me, is not where you invest a first round pick on a WR. I want a more-finished product at THIS position, that early. The supply of WRs is so high these days that you can be picky with the demand. EQSB also has the potential to be a good all-around WR. MVS, too. They went in the 5th and 6th because there was so much work to be done to get them there.

That's not apples to apples, and Toney's pure talent gives him a pretty solid floor where even if he fails to develop as a refined WR, he can still play a useful role. That's good. But I, personally, feel like the draft should be a place where you get these total packages early and developmental role players later (at WR). Because there are so many guys who can do some of the things.

[YoHoChecko]

OK, one more. FWIW, I think Toney would be an amazing addition to our team and if we take him in round 1, even over my new pet favorite Bateman, I will be excited.

[Yoop]

OK, one more. FWIW, I think Toney would be an amazing addition to our team and if we take him in round 1, even over my new pet favorite Bateman, I will be excited.

woha, that was the quickest trip from pan fried noodles, to chicken and stir fry veggies I ever took

all through the read I kept thinking how happy Rodgers would be with either player, and how he and Lafluer would turn them into STAR players, not associated with the Star position I was so engrossed with yesterday lol.

I can't imagine Guty allowing Rodgers to retire never having a first round WR, real close with Jordy, we traded out of round one and still made him our first pick, I guess that sorta counts, these are the two receivers I like that I think we may have a chance to pick, nice comments guys.

[YoHoChecko]

I can't imagine Guty allowing Rodgers to retire never having a first round WR, real close with Jordy, we traded out of round one and still made him our first pick, I guess that sorta counts, these are the two receivers I like that I think we may have a chance to pick, nice comments guys.

The whole "1st round receiver" thing is a really silly talking point when there have been 4 Pro Bowl WRs for the Packers taken in the second round in Rodgers' career (Jennings, Jordy, Cobb, and Adams). You don't NEED a first round WR when you're batting 1.000 in the second round.

The Packers could have taken WR Devin Smith (picked 37th) in the 2015 draft instead of CB Damarius Randall and we would have "taken a first round WR for Rodgers" and the team would be no better off. They could have taken WR Zay Jones (37th) in 2017 instead of trading back for King and would have been worse off. Or maybe N'Keal Harry (32nd) in 2019 instead of trading up for Savage (much worse off).

Taking a WR in the first round is not the mark of whether or not the team/QB has good receivers. How good their receivers are is the mark. And it's really tough to argue with the results of Jennings, Jordy, Cobb, and Adams. It would be difficult to find a team that has drafted better WRs in the first few rounds in the past 15 years than that.

[Yoop]

I can't imagine Guty allowing Rodgers to retire never having a first round WR, real close with Jordy, we traded out of round one and still made him our first pick, I guess that sorta counts, these are the two receivers I like that I think we may have a chance to pick, nice comments guys.

The whole "1st round receiver" thing is a really silly talking point when there have been 4 Pro Bowl WRs for the Packers taken in the second round in Rodgers' career (Jennings, Jordy, Cobb, and Adams). You don't NEED a first round WR when you're batting 1.000 in the second round.

The Packers could have taken WR Devin Smith (picked 37th) in the 2015 draft instead of CB Damarius Randall and we would have "taken a first round WR for Rodgers" and the team would be no better off. They could have taken WR Zay Jones (37th) in 2017 instead of trading back for King and would have been worse off. Or maybe N'Keal Harry (32nd) in 2019 instead of trading up for Savage (much worse off).

Taking a WR in the first round is not the mark of whether or not the team/QB has good receivers. How good their receivers are is the mark. And it's really tough to argue with the results of Jennings, Jordy, Cobb, and Adams. It would be difficult to find a team that has drafted better WRs in the first few rounds in the past 15 years than that.

good point, I should have added that Ted's 2nd round WR have been better then most first rounders, more importantly though is that we havn't taken one of them in the last 6 years either, time to restock that position, either one of Toney or Bateman would do obviously, both though could be gone when we pick, from what I saw there are a few slot receivers later that sound interesting, we'll see.

[go pak go]

I can't imagine Guty allowing Rodgers to retire never having a first round WR, real close with Jordy, we traded out of round one and still made him our first pick, I guess that sorta counts, these are the two receivers I like that I think we may have a chance to pick, nice comments guys.

The whole "1st round receiver" thing is a really silly talking point when there have been 4 Pro Bowl WRs for the Packers taken in the second round in Rodgers' career (Jennings, Jordy, Cobb, and Adams). You don't NEED a first round WR when you're batting 1.000 in the second round.

The Packers could have taken WR Devin Smith (picked 37th) in the 2015 draft instead of CB Damarius Randall and we would have "taken a first round WR for Rodgers" and the team would be no better off. They could have taken WR Zay Jones (37th) in 2017 instead of trading back for King and would have been worse off. Or maybe N'Keal Harry (32nd) in 2019 instead of trading up for Savage (much worse off).

Taking a WR in the first round is not the mark of whether or not the team/QB has good receivers. How good their receivers are is the mark. And it's really tough to argue with the results of Jennings, Jordy, Cobb, and Adams. It would be difficult to find a team that has drafted better WRs in the first few rounds in the past 15 years than that.

good point, I should have added that Ted's 2nd round WR have been better then most first rounders, more importantly though is that we havn't taken one of them in the last 6 years either, time to restock that position, either one of Toney or Bateman would do obviously, both though could be gone when we pick, from what I saw there are a few slot receivers later that sound interesting, we'll see.

Honest question.

Were there any Wide Receivers that you actually knew about before Ted Thompson selected them in the 2nd/3rd round?

The only WR I believe I actually knew and targeted before the draft was Randle Cobb. Otherwise every WR we ever talked about on here was never picked. I think EQSB was another WR that we talked about on a forum and actually picked.

But I didn't know Jennings. I didn't know Jones, Nelson, Adams. And maybe it was because I wasn't as savvy and the info wasn't as available back then. But I just didn't know any of em.