BF004 wrote: ↑27 May 2021 19:09
I don't see how anyone can answer this question without seeing him throw a football in a Packers uniform yet.
I mean, sure I can flip coins too, but I would just have absolutely nothing I am basing my decision off of.
I can sure tell you I'm gunna be his biggest fan when he gets his shot and I'm gunna root for him hard. But I have zero clue.
The same way we evaluate QBs before the draft and discuss them.
It's pretty easy to have an opinion.
I'm torn on my answer because more than almost anyone I know in football fandom, I am a very firm believer that there is a LOT to learn before and without stepping foot on an NFL gameday field. I think that any QB not taken in the top 3 should sit for a year--definitely those taken outside of the top 10. I think that a rookie's "success" may often come at the expense of their future development because your body and motor skill memory trains under stress and reverts back to the lessons learned under stress when re-experiencing stress. I've learned that in the Army and in kineseology-based courses in my sports studies curriculum at UGA.
When a QB comes into the league with an assortment of bad habits, it is essential to unlearn and re-work those habits before they perform in a live setting with high-pressure. Sometimes, a QB has less to "unlearn" and less to "learn," then they can make those adjustments relatively quickly--say a season on the bench. But sometimes, a guy has some really rough mechanics (or really specific, overly mechanical ones like, say, a Tedford system QB). For those players, I think 2 years is the right amount of time to first unlearn the habits and adjust to the speed of the NFL, and then re-build good habits and gain experience in processing the scheme as it rolls out in front of him on the field.
I always viewed Jordan Love as a 2-year guy. The reason I did was because after showing IMMENSE natural talent as a sophomore, when everything changed (his coach, Gary Anderson of Wisconsin infamy; his whole OL; 2 of his top 4 WRs; his TE; his RB), he reverted to a ton of REALLY bad habits. He admits it. He forced too much; tried to make every play on his own. Basically he played with a Favre 2005 mentality (that was the 29-INT year, right?). Basically thinking "I don't know these guys; we aren't on the same page; the scheme stinks; we're underdogs in every game... let's go out there and wing it"
A former QB coach is his head coach; a former QB coach is his OC; and he has a QB coach. That is how it's been in Green Bay for a long time. We focus on the QB position and we focus on development. We believe in taking time to develop them. Under Ron Wolf, we moved late round guys like Matt Hasselbeck and Aaron Brooks and Mark Brunell for higher picks after developing them and teaching them our system.
Under MM, we got a pretty decent comp pick for developing 7th rounder Matt Flynn into a guy who could compete for a starting job in the league briefly.
Under MLF, TBLS got a contract with a division rival as a backup without ever having shown anything on the football field.
And as I have shown many times, the odds of a QB becoming ELITE--like truly HoF possibilities--seems obviously higher for QBs that don't start as rookies, such as Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Rivers, and Mahomes. As opposed to Wilson, P. Manning and Roethlisberger.
So I believe in the process. And I believe that Love has the talent. I am genuinely concerned with whether or not Love has had enough time in the process to enter a starting lineup without potentially negative impacts on his ceiling. I think he had a lot to unlearn; and a lot to learn. If Love became the Packers starter in 2022, I predict a career that reaches multiple pro bowls. If he starts in 2021, I'm not sure. Success, but I'm not sure.