Round 2 (62) - A.J. Dillon, RB Boston College

[paco]

Jaire, you remember this one?

[YoHoChecko]

I like him as much as I liked Eddie Lacy

[NCF]

Measurables : Height: 6’0’’ | Weight: 247 lbs.

In a nutshell: Dillon was highly productive as a three-year starter at Boston College, eclipsing the 1,000-yard mark three seasons in a row. Leading the ACC in rushing in 2019 with 1,685 yards on the ground, Dillon garnered national attention as one of the top tailbacks in the nation. The Connecticut native is a physical downhill runner who should be a great mid-round option for a team looking to find a reliable halfback in a powerrunning scheme.

[bud fox]

I like him as much as I liked Eddie Lacy

Lacy has good quickness for his size - Dillon doesn't. Speed and quickness different.

[TheGreenMan]

I like him as much as I liked Eddie Lacy

Lacy has good quickness for his size - Dillon doesn't. Speed and quickness different.

Where are you seeing slowness? Because I'm not seeing it. I definitely get the Lacy comparisons.

[YoHoChecko]

I like him as much as I liked Eddie Lacy

Lacy has good quickness for his size - Dillon doesn't. Speed and quickness different.

Where are you seeing slowness? Because I'm not seeing it. I definitely get the Lacy comparisons.

Dillon has a very slow spin move; Lacy had a fast spin move.
Dillon has good pull-away speed; Lacy had no pull-away speed.
They both have nimble feet to make subtle moves while running.
Dillon has more size/bulk/mass; Lacy ran like he had more size/bulk/mass

[bud fox]

Lacy has good quickness for his size - Dillon doesn't. Speed and quickness different.

Where are you seeing slowness? Because I'm not seeing it. I definitely get the Lacy comparisons.

Dillon has a very slow spin move; Lacy had a fast spin move.
Dillon has good pull-away speed; Lacy had no pull-away speed.
They both have nimble feet to make subtle moves while running.
Dillon has more size/bulk/mass; Lacy ran like he had more size/bulk/mass

Not seeing the bold at all - agree that he has pull away speed. He slows so much when he cuts or has to change direction. Lacy had a weird quickness to him but was overall slow.

[lupedafiasco]

Horrible pick. I thought he was a day 3 guy. Maybe 4th round. Couldnt have had a more useless first 2 picks unless you went kicker punter.

[TheGreenMan]

Lacy has good quickness for his size - Dillon doesn't. Speed and quickness different.

Where are you seeing slowness? Because I'm not seeing it. I definitely get the Lacy comparisons.

Dillon has a very slow spin move; Lacy had a fast spin move.
Dillon has good pull-away speed; Lacy had no pull-away speed.
They both have nimble feet to make subtle moves while running.
Dillon has more size/bulk/mass; Lacy ran like he had more size/bulk/mass

Lacy ran like a freight train. Once he was downhill he scared me even from the couch.

[wallyuwl]

Horrible pick. I thought he was a day 3 guy. Maybe 4th round. Couldnt have had a more useless first 2 picks unless you went kicker punter.

The more I look at these two picks the more I think this, too.

[Freewheelingutey]

This is a typical ted type draft. Loaded at wr..so gets totally ignored. There won't be any available soon...fn chucky.

[YoHoChecko]

Some Football Outsiders Analytics ranked Dillon's pro stat projection second in this draft

BackCAST projects NFL running back success based on statistics that have correlated with success in the past. Historically, a college running back who has a good size-speed combination, gained a high average yards per carry, and represented a large percentage of his college team's running attack is more likely to succeed at the NFL level. BackCAST considers these factors and projects the degree to which the running back will exceed the NFL production of an "average" drafted running back during his first five years in the NFL. For example, a running back with a +50% BackCAST is projected to gain 50% more yards than the "average" drafted running back. BackCAST also projects whether each running back is likely to be heavily involved in the receiving game or is more of a "ground-and-pound" back.

BackCAST is based on a statistical analysis of all of the Division I halfbacks drafted between 1998 and 2018, and measures the following:

The prospect's weight at the NFL combine.
The prospect's 40-yard dash at the NFL combine. If he did not run at the combine, BackCAST uses his pro day time.
The prospect's collegiate yards per attempt, with an adjustment for running backs who had fewer career carries than an average drafted running back.
The prospect's "AOEPS," which measures how much, on average, the prospect's team used him in the running game during his career relative to the usage of an average drafted running back during the same year of eligibility.
The prospect's receiving yards per game in his college career.

1. Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin
BackCAST Score: +196.9%
RecIndex: -0.21
Similar Historical Prospects: Saquon Barkley, LaDainian Tomlinson

Jonathan Taylor excels in every metric that BackCAST measures. First, the obvious: Taylor is big and fast. Taylor is a big back at 226 pounds who somehow managed to run the 40-yard dash in a blistering 4.39 seconds. Taylor's performance at the combine is roughly equivalent to that of Barkley, who ran a 4.40-second 40-yard dash at 233 pounds.

Where Taylor edges Barkley is in the production department. Like Barkley, Taylor grabbed a stranglehold on his team's backfield and never looked back. While Taylor was in the lineup, Wisconsin fed over 50% of its carries to him. Barkley also soaked up a large number of Penn State's carries, although not quite to the extent that Taylor did at Wisconsin. However, where Taylor really beats Barkley is in yards per attempt. The weak point of Barkley's projection was that he "only" averaged 5.7 yards per attempt in college. Taylor averaged nearly 6.7 yards per carry. It's rare for a prospect to produce so much on a per-play basis while carrying a workload like Taylor's, and no prospect in BackCAST's database has done it as well as Taylor. It's an incredible feat.

Some might hesitate on Taylor because of the draft history of Wisconsin running backs. Ron Dayne, for example (who BackCAST missed on), was a failure despite big numbers at Wisconsin. It's questionable whether NFL decision-makers should put much weight on the failure of a running back who was drafted two decades ago. For what it's worth, Dayne was a highly unusual prospect. Dayne weighed 259 pounds and was not fast in an absolute sense (he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.65 seconds). Taylor is a much more conventional prospect in terms of size.

Of course, the best reason to doubt Taylor's prospects is that he is simply not rated as a top prospect by the draftnik community. ESPN's Scouts, Inc., for example, has Taylor rated as a late first-, early second-round pick. BackCAST is not the be-all-end-all of running back evaluation, and it's absolutely legitimate to question whether the scouts may have picked up problems with Taylor's game that are not identified by Taylor's combine measureables and college production. However, the possibility that the numbers might be right about Taylor makes him an intriguing option for any team that could use an upgrade at the running back position.

2. AJ Dillon, Boston College
BackCAST Score: +111.4%
RecIndex: -0.51
Similar Historical Prospects: Steven Jackson, LenDale White

AJ Dillon could be the perfect fit for a team that is looking for a bargain-basement running back pick with upside. Like Taylor, Dillon has a good size-speed combination -- his 4.53-second 40-yard time is impressive given his 247-pound size. Dillon also consistently dominated his backfield at Boston College, although not to quite the extent that Taylor dominated Wisconsin's.

Dillon's only "bad" metric is his low (for a drafted running back) 5.2 yards per attempt. It would have been better if Dillon had been more productive on a per-play basis, but there is also precedent for running backs with lower yards per attempt finding success in the NFL. Steven Jackson, for example, averaged only 4.9 yards per attempt at Oregon State, and had a strong BackCAST projection and a good career in the NFL.

[Pckfn23]

His quickness is horrible - shockingly slow feet.

Hopefully our oline does a good job because I think he is going to need early holes to get through.

I wouldn't say that at all. He looks quick through the hole and explosive. That also plays out in his incredible 10' 11" vertical and 7.19 3 Cone.

[bud fox]

His quickness is horrible - shockingly slow feet.

Hopefully our oline does a good job because I think he is going to need early holes to get through.

I wouldn't say that at all. He looks quick through the hole and explosive. That also plays out in his incredible 10' 11" vertical and 7.19 3 Cone.

When he is down hill - not after a cut - sorry doesn't show on tape. Lacy was a quick big. This guy is a fast big.

[Pckfn23]

I like him as much as I liked Eddie Lacy

Lacy has good quickness for his size - Dillon doesn't. Speed and quickness different.

Where are you seeing slowness? Because I'm not seeing it. I definitely get the Lacy comparisons.

Agreed. I don't see this insistence that he is not quick.

[Pckfn23]

His quickness is horrible - shockingly slow feet.

Hopefully our oline does a good job because I think he is going to need early holes to get through.

I wouldn't say that at all. He looks quick through the hole and explosive. That also plays out in his incredible 10' 11" vertical and 7.19 3 Cone.

When he is down hill - not after a cut - sorry doesn't show on tape. Lacy was a quick big. This guy is a fast big.

No, not just when he is down hill...

I wouldn't call him shifty at all, but he sticks his foot in the ground and quickly gets up to speed. Sort of like not-fat Lacy.

[bud fox]

I wouldn't say that at all. He looks quick through the hole and explosive. That also plays out in his incredible 10' 11" vertical and 7.19 3 Cone.

When he is down hill - not after a cut - sorry doesn't show on tape. Lacy was a quick big. This guy is a fast big.

No, not just when he is down hill...

I wouldn't call him shifty at all, but he sticks his foot in the group and quickly gets up to speed. Sort of like not-fat Lacy.

Lacy could bounce and spin was a strange how quick he was for his size.

I guess we will just wait to see how he produces this year.

[Pckfn23]

When he is down hill - not after a cut - sorry doesn't show on tape. Lacy was a quick big. This guy is a fast big.

No, not just when he is down hill...

I wouldn't call him shifty at all, but he sticks his foot in the group and quickly gets up to speed. Sort of like not-fat Lacy.

Lacy could bounce and spin was a strange how quick he was for his size.

I guess we will just wait to see how he produces this year.

Ya, Lacy used his spin move early on and paid for it later. A spin move is not a good technique in the NFL. It gets the ball carrier killed. So basically I don't give a &%$@ if Lacy had a spin move.

Dillon beats out Lacy in every measurable. I think you may need to clear you head and rewatch.

[bud fox]

No, not just when he is down hill...

I wouldn't call him shifty at all, but he sticks his foot in the group and quickly gets up to speed. Sort of like not-fat Lacy.

Lacy could bounce and spin was a strange how quick he was for his size.

I guess we will just wait to see how he produces this year.

Ya, Lacy used his spin move early on and paid for it later. A spin move is not a good technique in the NFL. It gets the ball carrier killed. So basically I don't give a &%$@ if Lacy had a spin move.

Dillon beats out Lacy in every measurable. I think you may need to clear you head and rewatch.

Talk about your combine numbers like there important but Lacy was quicker any one can see that on tape. A spin move shows quickness not that it is a great move. He had good bounce etc.

This guy doesn't have it but hey lets wait and see how he produces this year - maybe his slow feet will deceive opposing teams.

[Pckfn23]

Lacy could bounce and spin was a strange how quick he was for his size.

I guess we will just wait to see how he produces this year.

Ya, Lacy used his spin move early on and paid for it later. A spin move is not a good technique in the NFL. It gets the ball carrier killed. So basically I don't give a &%$@ if Lacy had a spin move.

Dillon beats out Lacy in every measurable. I think you may need to clear you head and rewatch.

Talk about your combine numbers like there important but Lacy was quicker any one can see that on tape. A spin move shows quickness not that it is a great move. He had good bounce etc.

This guy doesn't have it but hey lets wait and see how he produces this year - maybe his slow feet will deceive opposing teams.

Apparently you are the only one that doesn't see the quickness Dillon shows...

It's really weird to just make up that DIllon isn't quick.