2021 Post Draft Discussion

[Yoop]

"I ran the wrong route and luckily scored," Cobb said. "I'm going to hear about that in meeting tomorrow and probably get a negative [grade] for it. But we just made a play. That was the big thing."

I wasn't attacking your theory yoop. I was just saying why Mac made the decision he probably made and then put in the funny story of Cobb's first TD catch being on the hands of running the wrong route. It was supposed to be FUNNY!! Because the result was he scored!

As far as Cobb over Driver. I agree. Cobb should have gotten more snaps. But it was also DONALD DRIVER. Packers Legend. And we are talking about playing time between the #4 and #5 WR.

Like who cares?

no one seems to, the point is Rookies do start and play often, and Cobb running the wrong route from the slot is something even vets do, the route a slot receiver takes is determined upon coverages the defense shows, we often talk about the problems TE's have as rookies, the routes they take are often determined the same way.

Rodgers gets that, his anger with Finley was that Jer mike was still screwing it up in his 3rd season, Cobb rarely did it that I remember.
sorry I'am so used to people attacking every word I say I guess I was on the defensive.

[go pak go]

Rodgers gets that, his anger with Finley was that Jer mike was still screwing it up in his 3rd season, Cobb rarely did it that I remember.
sorry I'am so used to people attacking every word I say I guess I was on the defensive.

Oh you relayed to the ole defense tactic "prove it. Look up the quote" pretty quick.

I think the answer is more though, "some rookies play and an even smaller amount are good right away"

Most rookies don't play right away and most rookies aren't very good. If I were to guess, you are probably looking at 25 to 40 rookies who see any significant role and probably 10 to 15 rookies who actually play well each season league wide.

It's usually that Year 2 and especially Year 3 when you see players really start to come into their own. If the player isn't showing something by Year 3, it usually means their time with the team is over.

So when I look at our Year 3 guys....I'm expecting a big year.

[Yoop]

Rodgers gets that, his anger with Finley was that Jer mike was still screwing it up in his 3rd season, Cobb rarely did it that I remember.
sorry I'am so used to people attacking every word I say I guess I was on the defensive.

Oh you relayed to the ole defense tactic "prove it. Look up the quote" pretty quick.

I think the answer is more though, "some rookies play and an even smaller amount are good right away"

Most rookies don't play right away and most rookies aren't very good. If I were to guess, you are probably looking at 25 to 40 rookies who see any significant role and probably 10 to 15 rookies who actually play well each season league wide.

It's usually that Year 2 and especially Year 3 when you see players really start to come into their own. If the player isn't showing something by Year 3, it usually means their time with the team is over.

So when I look at our Year 3 guys....I'm expecting a big year.

well obviously ya expect more in years two and 3, but rookies start and do well year one every season, I just named 4 or 5, but we've had far more then that do well as rookies, just not as good as they do there 2nd and 3rd year.

obviously if you have a well stocked roster it will be harder for a rookie to start, but very few teams have that luxury, your top picks have to be able to play.

we didn't have that luxury when we took Gary, we needed to fill a weaker position somehow, ya don't win anything having high picks like that riding pine and leaving DT, ILB, etc maned up by street FA jags, same with taking Jarred Love, in this era ya have to use those high picks on players that are ready to produce even though there not yet at there ceiling, thing is there almost always better then who ya now have taking the snaps, for instance Randal as a rookie wasn't very good, but he was still our best CB, just like Cobb should have gotten a lot more of the snaps that went to Driver.

[YoHoChecko]

I really wish that Pro Football Reference didn't paywall their customized leaderboards because I'd love to bring some rookie scrimmage snap count data to this conversation so that each of you can use that data as you interpret it to prove your point.

[go pak go]

I really wish that Pro Football Reference didn't paywall their customized leaderboards because I'd love to bring some rookie scrimmage snap count data to this conversation so that each of you can use that data as you interpret it to prove your point.

I'm still trying to figure out what the conversation is even about.

[YoHoChecko]

I'm still trying to figure out what the conversation is even about.

Oh easy. Yoop believes that high draft picks should be used to fill needs. He feels that when you draft a player highly who fills an immediate need, that player will get on the field right away, thus improving your team right away.

Go Pack Go believes that even if a rookie gets onto the field right away, that player may not improve the team.

Yoop feels like any player worth being selected high should be ready to play and be good enough to improve the team.

Go Pack Go thinks that even highly-drafted players sometimes don't pan out or just need some development, and that even highly successful rookies are rarely better than average by NFL standards, and that only 10-15 players per year defy that--not nearly enough players to set the standard for First Round Picks--and especially not Day Two picks.

That's most of the conversations, really.

FWIW, I am of the opinion that Go Pack Go is completely correct.

[Yoop]

I'm still trying to figure out what the conversation is even about.

Oh easy. Yoop believes that high draft picks should be used to fill needs. He feels that when you draft a player highly who fills an immediate need, that player will get on the field right away, thus improving your team right away.

Go Pack Go believes that even if a rookie gets onto the field right away, that player may not improve the team.

Yoop feels like any player worth being selected high should be ready to play and be good enough to improve the team.

Go Pack Go thinks that even highly-drafted players sometimes don't pan out or just need some development, and that even highly successful rookies are rarely better than average by NFL standards, and that only 10-15 players per year defy that--not nearly enough players to set the standard for First Round Picks--and especially not Day Two picks.

That's most of the conversations, really.

FWIW, I am of the opinion that Go Pack Go is completely correct.

I didn't say every high pick will be that much better then a average vet, just that many are, and you don't need to do anything besides look at the high draft picks we've used and watche3d them start early as rookies, Dix, Randal, Adams, Bak, Clark, Raji, Mathews, Savage, King, Jenkins, etc.


you made it sound as though Lafluer doesn't start rookies, yet after a few games he does move them to start, thats the point, ya don't need to groom players for 2 and 3 years, what Smith said concerning Gary is coach talk for we paid millions for the Smiths and Gary was cheap, so to defend the actions of our GM we'll sit Gary and use him in a backup roll, now you may want to accept that, but I wont, Gary should have started every game last year, and if played his first year would have sped up his learning curve, for Smith to say what he did was just defending that pick, nothing more.

your opinion is noted.

[go pak go]

I'm still trying to figure out what the conversation is even about.

Oh easy. Yoop believes that high draft picks should be used to fill needs. He feels that when you draft a player highly who fills an immediate need, that player will get on the field right away, thus improving your team right away.

Go Pack Go believes that even if a rookie gets onto the field right away, that player may not improve the team.

Yoop feels like any player worth being selected high should be ready to play and be good enough to improve the team.

Go Pack Go thinks that even highly-drafted players sometimes don't pan out or just need some development, and that even highly successful rookies are rarely better than average by NFL standards, and that only 10-15 players per year defy that--not nearly enough players to set the standard for First Round Picks--and especially not Day Two picks.

That's most of the conversations, really.

When you know me more than I know me.

That's spot on at least from my perspective. Only thing I would add is the rookie may not only not improve the team, but the rookie often truly has no idea what he is doing and that being out there too early hurts development, confidence and lead to more rookie mistakes.

What's more, I actually feel putting a highly drafted player out too early is more dangerous than putting a lower drafted player in early because confidence, ego and expectations are at a different level for players with high draft grades. You ultimately want your highly picked and highly talented players to pan out and not necessarily just plug a hole. Whereas lower drafted players (day 3 guys) are more about just plugging a hole.

[go pak go]

I didn't say every high pick will be that much better then a average vet, just that many are, and you don't need to do anything besides look at the high draft picks we've used and watche3d them start early as rookies, Dix, Randal, Adams, Bak, Clark, Raji, Mathews, Savage, King, Jenkins, etc.

Dix flamed out early in his career
Randal flamed out early in his career

Adams hardly played (less than 500 yards receiving)
Clark and Raji hardly played as rookies

Bak and Jenkins played due to injury and did very well. Both weren't likely drafted to be immediate starters

Clay didn't start right away but you could tell immediately he was a player

King played but then got hurt pretty much immediately

Savage played. He played okay. He definitely took the 2nd year jump and I hope it continues into year 3.

I think Matthews, Bak, Jenkins, King Dix and maybe Randle showed they were better than an average vet their rookie seasons when in the game. Adams had two memorable catches but MVS honestly had more his rookie season. Half went to have great careers. Half went to have terrible careers.

[Yoop]

I'm still trying to figure out what the conversation is even about.

Oh easy. Yoop believes that high draft picks should be used to fill needs. He feels that when you draft a player highly who fills an immediate need, that player will get on the field right away, thus improving your team right away.

Go Pack Go believes that even if a rookie gets onto the field right away, that player may not improve the team.

Yoop feels like any player worth being selected high should be ready to play and be good enough to improve the team.

Go Pack Go thinks that even highly-drafted players sometimes don't pan out or just need some development, and that even highly successful rookies are rarely better than average by NFL standards, and that only 10-15 players per year defy that--not nearly enough players to set the standard for First Round Picks--and especially not Day Two picks.

That's most of the conversations, really.

When you know me more than I know me.

That's spot on at least from my perspective. Only thing I would add is the rookie may not only not improve the team, but the rookie often truly has no idea what he is doing and that being out there too early hurts development, confidence and lead to more rookie mistakes.

What's more, I actually feel putting a highly drafted player out too early is more dangerous than putting a lower drafted player in early because confidence, ego and expectations are at a different level for players with high draft grades. You ultimately want your highly picked and highly talented players to pan out and not necessarily just plug a hole. Whereas lower drafted players (day 3 guys) are more about just plugging a hole.

so then you think it's better to groom up and protect the Gary's of the nfl, only to watch them bloom and become to costly to resign, once you do start them, basically you just coached up and Groom a high pick to play there best for some other team.

I can't believe you guys are dogging me on this stuff, each and every year as you said there are any where from 25 to 40 rookies that start at some point there first season, and do well enough that they are a improvement over the previous starter, we've been averaging 2 starters a draft class that tend to start some where every season, they may not become all pro, but they have been better then the talent we had prior.

this argument for grooming players a year or so sounds great, but it's not feasible, GM have to draft for positional needs, and use high draft picks to do so, even then it's impossible to fill every position with starter talent, and it really shows on defense where one or two weak positions turns a good defense into a 30 ranked unit.

some players take a little longer to become mistake free, Nelson took a year or so, but Greg Jennings was pretty good right away, just like Cobb, JUst like Mathews and Raji, and King and Alexander, or Dix ( u people hate on him but he was solid his first two seasons).

obviously ya draft and develop, but that doesn't mean the develop part needs to take 2 and 3 years before the player is ready to start, thats insanity.

[Yoop]

I didn't say every high pick will be that much better then a average vet, just that many are, and you don't need to do anything besides look at the high draft picks we've used and watche3d them start early as rookies, Dix, Randal, Adams, Bak, Clark, Raji, Mathews, Savage, King, Jenkins, etc.

Dix flamed out early in his career
Randal flamed out early in his career

Adams hardly played (less than 500 yards receiving)
Clark and Raji hardly played as rookies

Bak and Jenkins played due to injury and did very well. Both weren't likely drafted to be immediate starters

Clay didn't start right away but you could tell immediately he was a player

King played but then got hurt pretty much immediately

Savage played. He played okay. He definitely took the 2nd year jump and I hope it continues into year 3.

I think Matthews, Bak, Jenkins, King Dix and maybe Randle showed they were better than an average vet their rookie seasons when in the game. Adams had two memorable catches but MVS honestly had more his rookie season. Half went to have great careers. Half went to have terrible careers.

did Dix flame out? or did the schemes and surrounding talent flame out, Dix made the PB his second season, and Dix in 7 seasons has over 550 tackles and 20 picks, he was just invited to try out for some team, I expect he'll get that job.

Mathews started third game as a rookie, had 10 sacks and a ton of pressures, Raji started quickly as a rookie, point is Rookies DO start, point is teams rely on them to start, only mid to later round players should need to groom longer, players get slotted high because there expected to be ready to play, thats why there picked in the first round, it's mind boggling to think a 12 slotter needs to groom for 2 or 3 years, if thats the case he should have been available in the 3rd round.

[go pak go]

did Dix flame out? or did the schemes and surrounding talent flame out, Dix made the PB his second season, and Dix in 7 seasons has over 550 tackles and 20 picks, he was just invited to try out for some team, I expect he'll get that job.

You answered your own question at the end of this paragraph.

I don't know why you keep saying Raji started early as a rookie. Johnny Jolly and Ryan Pickett were the 2009 DT starters with Jenkins and Montgomery as the DE's. An issue with your conversations is you spew a lot of stuff that simply isn't true which then takes the conversations to other places.

I do agree that some rookies start and there are probably about 10 to 15 good rookies each year. But out of 259 draft picks, having only 10 to 15 good players is pretty rare. Do I want them? Absolutely! Do I expect it each year and if they don't contribute their rookie season does it mean it is a failure? Absolutely not.

Jordy Nelson was drafted in 2008. Didn't have more than 600 yards receiving until his 4th season. Hardly would call him a bad pick.
BJ Raji started 1 game his rookie season and had 25 tackles, 1 sack and a TFL. But it was his 2nd season that made him a legend in Packer lore.

The Packers approach is exactly the opposite approach of what you feel NFL teams should do when using high draft picks. You view high draft picks should be primed and ready to play right away. Little development needed. The Packers on the other hand view high draft picks as "let's go for the high risk, high reward players at a premium position"

Is it right or is it wrong? I don't know. I do know the Packers approach has won a lot of games but I also know the Packers approach has also held the team back a few times. I tend to lean towards the Packers approach more because I think you need great players playing great to be successful.

Minnesota on the other hand usually is the other end where they draft "what they are supposed to draft". If they have an Olineman or CB need....they always take one (keep in mind these positions for them also have a HUGE bust rate). I also can't help but remember when they traded away Moss and they obviously took a WR Rd1. The result for MN is they usually have a pretty "solid" team but they never have the star power at the premium positions to take them over the top and are usually fighting for 2nd place in the division as a result over the last 25 years (outside of 1998 2009 and 2017). 2009 and 1998 they had their star. 2017 was truly that outlier season.

Overall, I just want my high picks to be great, great players. AJ Hawk was a safe pick. AJ could play right away. But AJ Hawk was not really the player I wanted to get with a top 5 pick. I want field tilters because you need at least 2 - 4 of them on a team to be good. And field tilters are really hard to get. Last year we had 4 of them in Rodgers, Adams, Jones and Alexander. In 2019 we had 4 of them in Clark, Z, Aaron Jones and Alexander and probably Adams.

I want field tilters. If it takes until Year 2 or Year 3 to get it...I'll happily wait. Because if this 2021 Packers team comes together with Rodgers and Savage and Gary join that field tilter list....we are the best team in football.

[Pckfn23]

I really wish that Pro Football Reference didn't paywall their customized leaderboards because I'd love to bring some rookie scrimmage snap count data to this conversation so that each of you can use that data as you interpret it to prove your point.

What do you want? I gotcha.

[YoHoChecko]

I really wish that Pro Football Reference didn't paywall their customized leaderboards because I'd love to bring some rookie scrimmage snap count data to this conversation so that each of you can use that data as you interpret it to prove your point.

What do you want? I gotcha.

Oh, you bit the bullet and paid up? Awesome! Thanks.

Just like the top rookies snap counts, maybe as a percentage of offensive and defensive plays; maybe a top 25 list on each side of the ball from each of the past two or three years? Gosh that sounds like a lot; maybe I shouldn't have said "just."

Just wondering how many rookies wind up playing in, say, more than 50% of snaps from scrimmage, or if that's even a reasonable guesstimate for a cutoff. I dunno. Sorry, I'm rambling,. This weekend got off to an early start

[salmar80]

What I don't like about Yoop's take is that it's so mechanical. All players drafted at point X should require Y time before starting. As if all prospects were manufactured in a factory and fit on a simple single sliding quality scale.

Not all prospects get coached equally in college, nor are all colleges running equally NFL ready schemes. Some players switch positions and/or schools, have to work through scheme changes, or suffer injuries. Thus vast majority of prospects are varying degrees of raw at their NFL position.

Luckily NFL readiness and capability to start year one aren't the only considerations of teams. The "needs" thinking is a simplification perpetuated by draftniks because it makes writing and reading mocks oh so easy.

Yes, IDEALLY high picks would be both prodigiously athletic AND NFL ready. Unfortunately there are not enough cases like that even for one round.

When teams have to choose from imperfect prospects, high athletic ceiling can easily trump NFL readiness, even very high in the draft. I personally expect only top 10 picks (expect QBs) to start as rookies. Even then there may be cases where the player would benefit from being brought in slowly.

Gutey seems to seek insta-starters in the draft, and is willing to wheel and deal to move to positions to get them (Jaire and Savage) but he also will take "non-needs" when the board falls that way. Trades aren't automatic, so you can't always match need, ceiling and NFL readiness. In cases where he's stuck in a suboptimal situation, he'll take ceiling over need.

[Yoop]

59 rookies that started at least 8 games there rookie season, and another 30 or so that started at least 1 game, obviously the better teams had less rookie s start, and some teams that drafted for the future like us didn't have anyone start

this is just the 2020 draft, but I'd bet there all pretty close, and obviously some that did start weren't that good, simply forced into duty because the position was void of talent, but a bunch that did start where very good.

https://www.nfl.com/news/2020-nfl-rooki ... ss-1-to-32

[go pak go]

So roughly 1 - 2 rookie starters from each draft.

Let's look at the Packers drafts then:

2018 - two rookies started multiple games in Jaire Alexander and MVS
2019 - two rookies started multiple games in Darnell Savage and Elgton Jenkins
2020 - 1 rookie started in multiple games in Krys Barnes

So Gute's track record is kind of where you want it [mention]Yoop[/mention]. He is in line with the league average.

[Yoop]

So roughly 1 - 2 rookie starters from each draft.

Let's look at the Packers drafts then:

2018 - two rookies started multiple games in Jaire Alexander and MVS
2019 - two rookies started multiple games in Darnell Savage and Elgton Jenkins
2020 - 1 rookie started in multiple games in Krys Barnes

So Gute's track record is kind of where you want it @Yoop. He is in line with the league average.

well that was my point, I didn't even count guys like Barnes though, of which I think the article mentioned 8 UDFA that played more then 8 games, and as I said there where a bunch that started at least 5 games, didn't count them either, so ya there are at least 2 Rookies per team that start at least 8 games, and probably 1 or 2 others that rotate in a lot.

why you guys thought only 15 or 20 across the entire league start each year per draft class isn't even logical when simply looking right here at our team, reality is a about 60 rookies start each year and play better then the player they replaced.

draft and develop, and more developing is old school, even Yoho said it, far to much player turnover now versus years ago to groom players for years, your top picks have to play, granted they'll still be learning, but they still have to play, now coaches will give ya all kinds of reasons for them not playing, and some are valid, but mostly it's excuses as the one is about Gary.
and some positions are easier to start at then others, like Garys position is, or boundry CB, or even T or other man up positions.

[go pak go]

So roughly 1 - 2 rookie starters from each draft.

Let's look at the Packers drafts then:

2018 - two rookies started multiple games in Jaire Alexander and MVS
2019 - two rookies started multiple games in Darnell Savage and Elgton Jenkins
2020 - 1 rookie started in multiple games in Krys Barnes

So Gute's track record is kind of where you want it @Yoop. He is in line with the league average.

well that was my point, I didn't even count guys like Barnes though, of which I think the article mentioned 8 UDFA that played more then 8 games, and as I said there where a bunch that started at least 5 games, didn't count them either, so ya there are at least 2 Rookies per team that start at least 8 games, and probably 1 or 2 others that rotate in a lot.

why you guys thought only 15 or 20 across the entire league start each year per draft class isn't even logical when simply looking right here at our team, reality is a about 60 rookies start each year and play better then the player they replaced.

draft and develop, and more developing is old school, even Yoho said it, far to much player turnover now versus years ago to groom players for years, your top picks have to play, granted they'll still be learning, but they still have to play, now coaches will give ya all kinds of reasons for them not playing, and some are valid, but mostly it's excuses as the one is about Gary.
and some positions are easier to start at then others, like Garys position is, or boundry CB, or even T or other man up positions.

Yeah. Except I didn't say 15 or 20 rookies play each year. I said 25 to 40 rookies each year which was a guess I pulled out of my a$$ and I wasn't too terribly far away. Especially when you start defining "prominent role". Like if you move that meter to 12 games started I bet it drops significantly. My 10 to 15 quote was rookies who were actually GOOD.

Overall my position is simply this:

1. If they can start right away and are good players....awesome. I'm all for it. Every fan wants a Clay Matthews impact immediately and let it continue.

2. If they don't start right away it doesn't mean it is a bad pick in the slightest. It just means they maybe need to take more time to develop into their role.

3. High draft pick does not mean order of who should start sooner and contribute earlier. High draft pick to me means high ceiling and that's it. Now I will also say that the Packers are not very good at 1st round picks the last 10 years. From 2010 - 2018, the Packers have had success on 3.5 picks. Bulaga, Clark, Alexander and I will give King a half point. The rest have been failures. But I also think outside of Nick Perry, the Packers didn't stick to their "Packer way" when viewing 1st round picks. Randle and Jones just aren't that "high ceiling at a premium position" type pick.

4. Especially in Round 1, just draft a good player. I don't care about team need. Just draft a good player. Rosters turn every 2 - 3 years anyway. There will eventually be room for the player. Just draft the good player. You can never predict NFL rosters. Like we all thought that BJ Raji was the pick to take over for Ryan Pickett. When in reality BJ Raji ended up being the pick to take over for young Johnny Jolly because of purple drank. You just can't plan these rosters so just pick good players.

[Pckfn23]

65 Rookies started 8 or more games in 2020: https://stathead.com/tiny/vPso5

4 of those were undrafted.

8 of the 65 started all 16 games.

25 of those 65 were first round picks.

68 Rookies started 8 or more games in 2019: https://stathead.com/tiny/S3obR

3 of those were undrafted.

10 of the 68 started all 16 games.

19 of those 68 were first round picks.

65 Rookies started 8 or more games in 2018: https://stathead.com/tiny/Cz0I4

6 of those were undrafted.

14 of the 65 started all 16 games.

23 of those 65 were first round picks.

I can not find easily sortable date on rookie snap counts.