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We don't need stats to tell us that. It's a gamble and a risk. We get it.
I brought a link a week or so back that shows that all QB picks are 50/50, the only slot that has had success above the rest is the very first pick, the rest bust at about 50% and thats from slot 2 till the end of the draft class, 23 attempted to prove that info wrong, and didn't, more then half of his 111 are 2nd round or later picks.
I new something didn't jive with his data, I was just to stupid to figure it out, thanks to DSR for simplifying it so a dummy like me could get it.
Are you trying to say, or is your hypothesis that 50% of QBs taken after pick #1 all have the same rate of being unsuccessful?
That's not right yoop. A QB taken in Round 5 does not have the same success rate at being a quality player as one who is taken in the 1st round when you look at the selected player's probability of success.
ya, pretty much, and I was wrong the average success rate of QB's is barely 40%, with first round barely above some of the later rounds.
obviously more attention are paid to first round rated QB's, but they bust at almost the same rate as later round picks.
I've already brought a link to show this, heres another.
Trying to say Jordan Love is already likely to fail simply by pigeon holing him due to his draft position is crazy. While most draft picks don't live up to expectations regardless of position or draft slot. Almost a majority of successful QBs comes from the 1st round.
this is wrong, and your stats prove it's wrong, and why I challenged your findings, 54 from 111 are not a majority.
It isn't wrong... Look at the bold above, it says ALMOST a majority.
I brought a link a week or so back that shows that all QB picks are 50/50, the only slot that has had success above the rest is the very first pick, the rest bust at about 50% and thats from slot 2 till the end of the draft class, 23 attempted to prove that info wrong, and didn't, more then half of his 111 are 2nd round or later picks.
Again, you are not understanding what is going on. I never attempted to prove that info wrong, because that info was not wrong. I never even said it was wrong.
2nd round and beyond is also pulling from a much greater number of, hence the percentage of hitting is much lower.
Your link had some funky slotting that just didn't make a lot of sense and frankly it lacked any sort context. Of course many players fail. That is true regardless of position. It doesn't mean those positions should not be taken in round 1 or that there is just as good a chance to find one outside of round 1.
the point, my position, is that if your taking a guy and plan to groom him for 3 or 4 years why spend a first round pick on one, just take one in the 2nd, the third or later rounds, hell take a couple so they can compete, then trade one for peanuts or simply cut one, your investment is less and the bust rate is almost the same.
I brought a link a week or so back that shows that all QB picks are 50/50, the only slot that has had success above the rest is the very first pick, the rest bust at about 50% and thats from slot 2 till the end of the draft class, 23 attempted to prove that info wrong, and didn't, more then half of his 111 are 2nd round or later picks.
I new something didn't jive with his data, I was just to stupid to figure it out, thanks to DSR for simplifying it so a dummy like me could get it.
Are you trying to say, or is your hypothesis that 50% of QBs taken after pick #1 all have the same rate of being unsuccessful?
That's not right yoop. A QB taken in Round 5 does not have the same success rate at being a quality player as one who is taken in the 1st round when you look at the selected player's probability of success.
ya, pretty much, and I was wrong the average success rate of QB's is barely 40%, with first round barely above some of the later rounds.
obviously more attention are paid to first round rated QB's, but they bust at almost the same rate as later round picks.
I've already brought a link to show this, heres another.
So this too shows that Round 1 and Round 2 are about 75% better than Rounds 3 and lower. But the other thing to keep in mind is "Approximate Value in First 5 Seasons than those in MEDIAN DRAFT SLOT"
So a 6th rounder may actually have a 5% hit rate (I bet it's lower). But it's showing up as 37% on the chart because all 6th round QBs basically suck and fail. It does not mean that 37% of 6th round QBs selected are successful. The chart is is adjusted for others taken at its slot.
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Last edited by go pak go on 28 Jul 2021 10:18, edited 3 times in total.
obviously more attention are paid to first round rated QB's, but they bust at almost the same rate as later round picks.
The link you just brought does not show that. In fact it shows that rounds 1 and 2 have a significantly higher success rate, over the median, in the first 5 years compared to other rounds...
You are way out of your depth and aren't even understanding what you are looking at.
Last edited by Pckfn23 on 28 Jul 2021 10:20, edited 1 time in total.
Palmy - "Very few have the ability to truly excel regardless of system. For many the system is the difference between being just a guy or an NFL starter. Fact is, everyone is talented at this level."
the point, my position, is that if your taking a guy and plan to groom him for 3 or 4 years why spend a first round pick on one, just take one in the 2nd, the third or later rounds,
Because the chances of finding a good QB are better in round 1...
Palmy - "Very few have the ability to truly excel regardless of system. For many the system is the difference between being just a guy or an NFL starter. Fact is, everyone is talented at this level."
Are you trying to say, or is your hypothesis that 50% of QBs taken after pick #1 all have the same rate of being unsuccessful?
That's not right yoop. A QB taken in Round 5 does not have the same success rate at being a quality player as one who is taken in the 1st round when you look at the selected player's probability of success.
ya, pretty much, and I was wrong the average success rate of QB's is barely 40%, with first round barely above some of the later rounds.
obviously more attention are paid to first round rated QB's, but they bust at almost the same rate as later round picks.
I've already brought a link to show this, heres another.
So this too shows that Round 1 and Round 2 are about 75% better than Rounds 3 and lower. But the other thing to keep in mind is "Approximate Value in First 5 Seasons than those in MEDIAN DRAFT SLOT"
So a 6th rounder may actually have a 5% hit rate (I bet it's lower). But it's showing up as 37% on the chart because all 6th round QBs basically suck and fail. It does not mean that 37% of 6th round QBs selected are successful. The chart is is adjusted for others taken at its slot.
image.png
52% of all QB's bust or fail, most QB's are taken in the first couple rounds, and most of them fail.
as I told 23, if I'am drafting a QB to groom for almost half a decade why spend a high draft choice, take 2 in later rounds your odd are almost as good that one will just as good as the one taken late round one, if ya don't intend to groom then use a first, the point is we had intended (according to FO) to groom Love (raw as a fresh cut sirloin) for this year, next year, and beyond, so w2hy use a first?
but you win I'am tired of arguing about this, it matters nothing at this point
take 2 in later rounds your odd are almost as good that one will just as good as the one taken late round one
Your point is built around this, and this is false.
Palmy - "Very few have the ability to truly excel regardless of system. For many the system is the difference between being just a guy or an NFL starter. Fact is, everyone is talented at this level."
take 2 in later rounds your odd are almost as good that one will just as good as the one taken late round one
Your point is built around this, and this is false.
why, Wolf made a living drafting 2nd round or later QB's, Favre was a 2nd rounder, if your going to coach up QB's then it doesn't make sense to spend high draft capitol, if you plan to start one a season after drafting him, then OK use a first rounder, hell trade up as high as you can then, but I don't think that was the plan with Love.
Why? Because 1st round QBs have a better chance to be good than QBs drafted in later rounds...
The rest of you post was just nonsense &%$@.
Palmy - "Very few have the ability to truly excel regardless of system. For many the system is the difference between being just a guy or an NFL starter. Fact is, everyone is talented at this level."
why, Wolf made a living drafting 2nd round or later QB's, Favre was a 2nd rounder, if your going to coach up QB's then it doesn't make sense to spend high draft capitol, if you plan to start one a season after drafting him, then OK use a first rounder, hell trade up as high as you can then, but I don't think that was the plan with Love.
Your obsession with the Wolf strategy just doesn't serve your point well anymore. Wolf was doing that 20-30 years ago.
Look at the past 15-20 years, and you'll see that Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott are basically the only ones that worked out after round 2. You can get some decent spot duty, like a Gardner Minshew. QB drafting has been pushed up the draft; guys who have a lot of potential to do very well get scooped up earlier.
We'll see what happens with guys like Davis Mills and Kellen Mond and whatnot from this class. We'll see if Jacob Eason turns into the successor in Indy. But the odds of getting a starting QB after round 2 are incredibly low.
Ron Wolf's ability to find talent and Holmgren/Reid/Mariota's ability to develop them spoiled us in the 90s. We started thinking we could always find an Aaron Brooks, Matt Hasselbeck, or Mark Brunell if we consistently drafted later-round guys and developed them patiently. Not to mention Ty Detmer and Doug Pederson types.
But that simply hasn't been replicated around the league since free agency really ramped up and veteran QB contracts got so expensive, while rookie QB contracts became totally manageable. If you can play, the teams scoop you up early. Trying to replicate what Wolf did in the 90s--when even other teams couldn't match that at the time--is to set you up for failure.
It's not that your ideas about QBs have always been false; but they have become false. The process of acquiring QBs has evolved, and so must out approach to it as a team.
take 2 in later rounds your odd are almost as good that one will just as good as the one taken late round one
Your point is built around this, and this is false.
why, Wolf made a living drafting 2nd round or later QB's, Favre was a 2nd rounder, if your going to coach up QB's then it doesn't make sense to spend high draft capitol, if you plan to start one a season after drafting him, then OK use a first rounder, hell trade up as high as you can then, but I don't think that was the plan with Love.
You know Wolf wanted to move up to get Favre and would've in the first if he could, right? And he gave up a 1st to get a considered to be crappy 2nd round QB.
So this too shows that Round 1 and Round 2 are about 75% better than Rounds 3 and lower. But the other thing to keep in mind is "Approximate Value in First 5 Seasons than those in MEDIAN DRAFT SLOT"
So a 6th rounder may actually have a 5% hit rate (I bet it's lower). But it's showing up as 37% on the chart because all 6th round QBs basically suck and fail. It does not mean that 37% of 6th round QBs selected are successful. The chart is is adjusted for others taken at its slot.
image.png
as I told 23, if I'am drafting a QB to groom for almost half a decade why spend a high draft choice, take 2 in later rounds your odd are almost as good that one will just as good as the one taken late round one, if ya don't intend to groom then use a first, the point is we had intended (according to FO) to groom Love (raw as a fresh cut sirloin) for this year, next year, and beyond, so w2hy use a first?
but you win I'am tired of arguing about this, it matters nothing at this point
If this were true yoop. If drafting a QB later simply meant, "they need more time" you would literally see every team take QBs late and you would see a LOT more successful QB's with Day 3 selections be in the league.
The data just doesn't support your theory.
If you saw a 50% bust rate no matter the position, (it just takes more time to develop), you would see a LOT more QBs in the league who are starting by now and drafted after round 2.
Says about players being treated on their way out; guys who were allowed to leave who were part of the core. LOOONNNG list of actual players. Says they were either not offered a contract, lowballed, or not "treated well"
Wanted to be involved in free agency recruiting; talks of training with other athletes and high draft picks around the league and passing on information that was "not used" and he wants to be a part of that conversation.
Said in February there was no commitment made past 2021; he wasn't being used as recruiting; and "in March" the conversation changed to "if you want to move on, go ahead and do it"
Thought there would be a conversation about an extension given his high cap numbers and high-level play.
They tried to "throw money" without an extension earlier. Then around May they came back and offered an extension, and by then he felt like it wasn't really the same feel; made some analogy about reporters.
Said he seriously considered retirement; enjoyed his time away (first time aside from covid or lockout)
Worked on himself, found growth, joy, and happiness in things off the field.
Still a big competitive pull; knows he can still play; wants to still play; should play if he can give 100% and he can
Acknowledged that there are a lot of moving pieces and expiring contracts on the team at the end of this year; a lot of tough decisions. So he'll see how it turns out.
Wasn't confident that he'd be back after '21 or maybe even after 2020.
Just focusing on this season. Still views Love as his replacement.
"I'm not a victim at all," "it's a business" "it's an incredible opportunity to play this game"
