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My thoughts are if, in general, 3 is considered success (the Ron Wolf mark), then the mean should be below 3... but maybe closer to 2 or 2.5. I don't know. Maybe split the difference of 20 and 12 and see where that gets you? If 1.375 per team is the criteria, then it seems more like lupe is right that none of these GM's is qualified to do their jobs.
Dropping it to 12 adds 14 more players. https://stathead.com/tiny/ObyMk Some at the bottom of the list though... Ugh, I would hesitate to call them quality starters.
Dropping starts to 24 and AV to 16 results in 11 more players: https://stathead.com/tiny/2zLp1 I can live with that list, but we are only looking at 1.75 for the list of quality starters per team, per draft.
12 AV and 24 starts nets us 78 total players which would be much closer to Ron Wolf criteria, but I think that adds some questionable starters like OJ Howard.
Yeah, I like the second list better, but maybe it's just because of some of the names (I'm not even going to say it out loud). We know some names are going to get in that we think shouldn't and some will be dropped that we think should be included. Just have to draw that line in the sand somewhere.
Sweet. Thanks.
I am going to do that and then exclude guys who were cut and include guys who were traded.
I am going to keep it at the first 4 years for each class and 24+ starts and 16+ AV. We might lose some late bloomers, but this might give us a good starting point at least.
Palmy - "Very few have the ability to truly excel regardless of system. For many the system is the difference between being just a guy or an NFL starter. Fact is, everyone is talented at this level."
Revised 2017 list of draft success. Criteria is first 4 years 24+ starts and 16+ AV from PFR. Player cut in the first 4 years does not count as a success.
Arizona - 2
Atlanta - 0
Baltimore - 1
Buffalo - 3
Carolina - 3
Chicago - 2
Cincinnati - 1
Cleveland - 2
Dallas - 1
Denver - 1
Detroit - 2
Green Bay - 1
Houston - 2
Indianapolis - 2
Jacksonville - 1
Kansas City - 2
LA Chargers - 4
LA Rams - 3
Las Vegas - 0
Miami - 0
Minnesota - 1
New England - 0
New Orleans - 4
NY Giants - 2
NY Jets - 2
Philadelphia - 1
Pittsburgh - 3
Seattle - 3
San Francisco - 2
Tampa Bay - 1
Tennessee - 2
Washington - 2
That is 56 total or 1.75 quality starters is the average per team. The mode is now 2 quality starters per team.
Here is the raw data: https://stathead.com/tiny/Dn0qh Desmond King and Jamal Adams were the 2 players not with their drafting teams but included as they were traded. The other 4 players not with their drafting team were cut and not included here.
I think this is a good place to start. Any other suggestions before I move on to 2016?
Last edited by Pckfn23 on 23 Sep 2021 13:33, edited 2 times in total.
Palmy - "Very few have the ability to truly excel regardless of system. For many the system is the difference between being just a guy or an NFL starter. Fact is, everyone is talented at this level."
2016 with quality starter equaling 24+ starts and an AV of 16+ in the first 4 years:
Arizona - 0
Atlanta - 4
Baltimore - 2
Buffalo - 0
Carolina - 2
Chicago - 3
Cincinnati - 3
Cleveland - 2
Dallas - 4
Denver - 2
Detroit - 3
Green Bay - 3
Houston - 3
Indianapolis - 2
Jacksonville - 3
Kansas City - 2
LV Raiders - 0
LA Chargers - 1
LA Rams - 1
Miami - 3
Minnesota - 0
New England - 3
New Orleans - 3
NY Giants - 2
NY Jets - 3
Philadelphia - 1
Pittsburgh - 2
Seattle - 2
San Francisco - 1
Tampa Bay - 0
Tennessee - 3
Washington - 1
64 players met this criteria meaning the average team drafted 2 quality starters in this draft. The mode is 3.
Only 2 guys on the list were cut - Austin Blythe and Carl Nassib
Last edited by Pckfn23 on 23 Sep 2021 13:30, edited 1 time in total.
Palmy - "Very few have the ability to truly excel regardless of system. For many the system is the difference between being just a guy or an NFL starter. Fact is, everyone is talented at this level."
Do the cutoffs made from the 2017 qualitative adjustments hold up in 2016?
I think so. 8 more guys qualified in 2016 than 2017. If something doesn't look right, let me know and we can adjust. I don't see anyone in there that just should not belong.
Palmy - "Very few have the ability to truly excel regardless of system. For many the system is the difference between being just a guy or an NFL starter. Fact is, everyone is talented at this level."
Here is the spreadsheet. I will continue to update.
Palmy - "Very few have the ability to truly excel regardless of system. For many the system is the difference between being just a guy or an NFL starter. Fact is, everyone is talented at this level."
2015:
Arizona - 1
Atlanta - 2
Baltimore - 0
Buffalo - 2
Carolina - 3
Chicago - 2
Cincinnati - 0
Cleveland - 2
Dallas - 1
Denver - 1
Detroit - 1
Green Bay - 1
Houston - 1
Indianapolis - 0
Jacksonville - 2
Kansas City - 2
LA Chargers - 3
LA Rams - 2
Las Vegas - 1
Miami - 1
Minnesota - 4
New England - 3
New Orleans - 2
NY Giants - 1
NY Jets - 1
Philadelphia - 2
Pittsburgh - 1
San Francisco - 1
Seattle - 2
Tampa Bay - 4
Tennessee - 1
Washington - 3
56 drafted players considered quality starters. 3 guys cut that did not count toward their teams' total - Jamon Brown, Ereck Flowers, Bobby Hart.
Palmy - "Very few have the ability to truly excel regardless of system. For many the system is the difference between being just a guy or an NFL starter. Fact is, everyone is talented at this level."
By this criteria, Green Bay was 19th in drafting quality starters or better from 2015 to 2017. I will keep going when I get the time.
Palmy - "Very few have the ability to truly excel regardless of system. For many the system is the difference between being just a guy or an NFL starter. Fact is, everyone is talented at this level."
You can definitely see that we were hit and miss at the end of the Thompson era, a bit above average though.
Some interesting tidbits in there.
Palmy - "Very few have the ability to truly excel regardless of system. For many the system is the difference between being just a guy or an NFL starter. Fact is, everyone is talented at this level."
You can definitely see that we were hit and miss at the end of the Thompson era, a bit above average though.
Some interesting tidbits in there.
Back in the day, I did AV -based analysis of TT's tenure, and his drafting just stood out among his peers (the computer that stuff was on got demolished, so no, I don't have that data). Others had higher highs, but over time his performance was great. Not great enough to warrant totally abandoning UFA, but still.
But there are systemic problems with using PFR's Career AV as a tool: It gives automatic points for starts, no matter the quality of play, and a draft-and-develop team (and teams in cap trouble) will start their picks more than teams with solid vet rosters and ones using UFAs.
You can definitely see that we were hit and miss at the end of the Thompson era, a bit above average though.
Some interesting tidbits in there.
Back in the day, I did AV -based analysis of TT's tenure, and his drafting just stood out among his peers (the computer that stuff was on got demolished, so no, I don't have that data). Others had higher highs, but over time his performance was great. Not great enough to warrant totally abandoning UFA, but still.
But there are systemic problems with using PFR's Career AV as a tool: It gives automatic points for starts, no matter the quality of play, and a draft-and-develop team (and teams in cap trouble) will start their picks more than teams with solid vet rosters and ones using UFAs.
Absolutely. There are some issues with using AV, starts counting toward AV being one of them. If we had a better metric, I would definitely use it.
Last edited by Pckfn23 on 04 Oct 2021 07:59, edited 1 time in total.
Palmy - "Very few have the ability to truly excel regardless of system. For many the system is the difference between being just a guy or an NFL starter. Fact is, everyone is talented at this level."
both Wolf and Thompson where pretty good when it came to spotting talent, Wolf averaged 2.9 starters per class, I new I read that years back, this compares round picks during there GM tenure.
