Supplemental Draft 2020

[YoHoChecko]

Ok, Let's make a thread for this. I don't have the power to move posts, so I'm gonna bring in some quotes from other threads.

So, 1: Why are we talking about the Supplemental Draft this year more than other years?

This year is going to be different. The supplemental draft is likely to be absolutely insane due to the serious potential of no or a reduced NCAA season. Its not going to be the typical scrub prospects and guys with questionable issues. Very real chance you are going to see many legit high pick guys.

The NCAA is going to be far, far more conservative than the NFL when it comes to playing games. While the NFL can certainly go to fan-less TV only, the NCAA is far less likely to do so. If it isn't certain the season is going to happen mostly normal by the time the supplemental deadline hits, there is going to be a massive surge of players declaring for it, and a decent % of the 2021 draft is going to happen in the 2020 supplemental draft.

While I haven't heard any discussions about it, its certainly possible that they will work out a deal that lets players keep eligibility even if they declare for the supplemental draft. In which case the whole senior class will declare for it.

So Waldo's on top of this. More from him in a bit. But WHY does Waldo think this? Here's the latest from The Athletic:

The league successfully completed the 2020 NFL Draft despite massive nationwide shutdowns because of the coronavirus pandemic, but now NFL officials, player agents and the scouting community are bracing for potentially significant disruptions to the 2021 draft process.

“It depends on college: Is college going to play, when will they play, what will that season look like?” a veteran NFL agent told The Athletic Sunday morning. “What if there’s no college football season? Then what? It’s going to be really strange and different.”

and

“Each week and each day we find out more and more information of where everything’s going. I would think with the situation that there is a possibility that there’d be more kids in the supplemental draft, especially kids that were thinking about coming out,” Broncos general manager John Elway said Saturday evening.

and

“Not to get, like, too far ahead of ourselves, but when the supplemental draft comes around, whether or not the result of what’s going to happen in the fall or later on in the year, (it) could potentially force some players to declare for the draft,” Patriots director of player personnel Nick Caserio told reporters over the weekend.

Ok, that's an unnamed agent, John Elway, and Nick Caserio. These are real people, not just media talking heads, bloggers, or forum posters openly speculating about the likelihood of a big uptick in the supplemental draft.

But who is eligible for it? Again, The Athletic

Typically, players are eligible for the supplemental draft only if they missed January’s filing date for the spring draft or the circumstances surrounding their collegiate eligibility changed. Most supplemental draft entrants fall into the latter camp because of academic or disciplinary issues.

It is unclear whether the NFL would approve petitions from players without eligibility issues seeking to enter the supplemental draft, but agents and NFL executives alike expect more college players to try to find out.

So what sorts of things could lead to the NFL seriously addressing this, and how might they respond?

Indeed, NFL officials will closely follow the developments in college sports and figure out what a delayed college season — especially if football were pushed to winter — would mean. Could the NFL delay the scouting combine, typically scheduled for the last week in February, or even the draft, scheduled for April 22-24 in Cleveland, to accommodate a spring college season?

“Right now, they’re all watching junior tape. If there’s no season, you would probably refresh on junior tape and then go back to sophomore tape because you want to see progression,” Jim Nagy, the executive director of the Senior Bowl, told The Athletic in a phone interview Sunday. “Then you cross your fingers there’s a Senior Bowl and the combine.”

And How does it work?
hat tip to 23 for the article quoted below:

When the NFL says "players whose eligibility has changed since the NFL Draft," it means players who are not able to return for their final seasons of college, typically due to academic issues or suspension. To be eligible to enter the supplemental draft, a player must be at least three years removed from high school and entering his final year of college eligibility

In the event two teams bid the same pick on a player in the supplemental draft, the NFL turns to a predetermined draft order based on a three-tiered system. The first tier consists of teams with five or fewer wins from last season. The second tier consists of teams with more than five wins but did not make the playoffs last season. The third tier consists of playoff teams from last season. Within each tier, a lottery system — which is just like the NBA Draft lottery — determines the order of the teams.

[YoHoChecko]

Here's some more, a deeper dive on why from Waldo

Patriots are the only other team to not draft any. Was considered a sizable need for them too. does that mean anything?

I still think people are waaaay underselling the supplemental draft, and I find it almost likely that GB's strategy in part involves that. Like it wasn't plan A, but its a real plan B where usually plan B is more like plan Z.

By the time FA rolled around, it was quite clear that there was very real potential that the 2020 season was going to be cancelled. If not cancelled, there was going to be a severe impact. The NFL is far more able to roll with those punches (play without fans for example) than the NCAA.

Gute clearly used a maximize comp pick strategy in free agency (they will get 2, possibly 3), as every guy they signed didn't count in the formula.

Green Bay has to be more strategic about Covid than the average team, lacking a deep pockets owner. They likely hashed out the scenarios in far more depth than the average team out of necessity. It was pretty clear from the get go that:

- Live (in-person) sports were the first to go
- Live (in-person) sports will be the last to reopen
- Full reopening is not likely without a widely available vaccine
- A widely available vaccine is very unlikely in 2020
- A widely available vaccine is ridiculously unlikely before labor day
- A widely available vaccine has zero chance before the supplemental draft cutoff

College seniors face the very real chance that their draft stock today will be exactly what it would be in 2021. If they get an extra year of eligibility and take it, there will be double the senior class, and there will be recruits nipping at their playing time. They also will be a year older (23-24) by draft day, which hurts their stock a bit. It is an incredibly sound business decision to enter the supplemental draft, and its quite possible the NCAA won't yank their eligibility if they do it.

Put yourself in the shoes of player that got a draftable grade from the DAC but decided to go back to improve it, but now facing the very real chance the season is going to be cancelled. Which gamble do you make, supplimental draft, extra year of eligibility, or that the season is still going to go on?

Now think about GB for a minute. Teams gorged themselves on WRs this weekend. Most teams aren't going to need more (NE being the other outlier). GB is well positioned for the suppliemental draft WR market, given their competition will be relatively low and they will have extra picks so they can afford to be aggressive. They also happened to take the one guy that if everything goes wrong this season and they end up in the "we need to replace the QB" market, its already taken care of, so they don't need to be trigger shy because of that.

Just saying. Since I heard Gil Brandt mention the supplemental phenomenon likely coming, GB has basically played their cards exactly as you'd expect to for a team looking to use it to their advantage. They lacked urgency to fill holes far more than they have under Gute. GB often talks about liking guys on tape (or in person) from years prior, and follows HS recruits they like. They are well prepared for it. They also know who got draftable grades from the DAC but went back.

[YoHoChecko]

And now, let's think about who might be available.

Imagine a supplemental draft with the likes of Travis Etienne, Najee Harris, Chuba Hubbard, entering the NFL?

OOoOoOoo more RBs!

Which WRs would this include? Many top tier (Waddle, Chase, Ross, Seth Williams, Rondale Moore) are still not eligible.

I think some guys like DeVonta Smith, Tylan Wallace, Sage Surrat, Tamorrion Terry, Tyler Vaughns

Interesting to see if this happens and how teams value it.

[YoHoChecko]

Now that I've done all that...


A 2nd or 3rd round supplemental pick on Tylan Wallace would totally appease me and bail us out of this lack of suddenness and playmakers at WR.

So far, that's my favorite.

A later pick on a Tyler Vaughns (you know my USC love) or Sage Surratt would also intrigue me.

But remember, now we sort of know Gutey's thinking on this. YES, He'd like to add a WR, but only one he views as a lock to make the team and upgrade over what we have. It sounds like he liked two 2nd round WRs a lot and sorta stopped trying for WRs after that.

So you want someone ready. Wallace is a rising senior whose decision about whether to enter the draft was monitored, so he should count in that group, while I'm not sure the more speculative other two would get there and compel Gutey to use a pick.

A lot of people would probably like the safety net of a DeVonta Smith, as he seems like a solid all-around player who is unlikely to bust, but I am definitely less high on him than most, and would probably value him below some of these other guys.

What is highly UNLIKELY here is that the top guys we've all heard of for next year's class--guys with less than 3 years from their graduation--would be included for some sort of special eligibility. So dreams of adding Ja'Marr Chase or Jalen Waddle should probably be left in the fantasy realm unless/until anyone hears anything concrete about rule changes.

Also worth remembering that we are at the bottom of the priority in the tier system. A tier three team with a lottery to determine order within that tier. So we'd be picking behind all the teams that didn't make the playoffs last year, at the least, in each round.

[Foosball]

YoHo, I just want to say Thank You for all the work you do pulling up info. Even going so far as to re-type complete articles In some cases. Awesome Dude!

I was just educating myself more on the supplemental draft. It’s not something I’ve paid too much attention.

There have been 6 players selected in the supplemental draft since 2009.

I hadn’t realized that Mike Wahle was drafted in the 2nd round of the 1998 supplemental draft.

I also did not know that it’s similar to a silent auction with the parameters that are explained in this thread.

And finally I learned if the submitted bid wins, then the team loses that pick in the next year’s regular draft.

So there is some strategy and a gamble involved in the process. Sounds right up Gute’s alley. And yes, with the unfortunate affect of the virus, there may be an influx of players which may give the Packers an opportunity to pick up a dynamic player.

Should be interesting.....

A comprehensive explanation here;
https://www.liveabout.com/supplemental- ... ss-1335579

[YoHoChecko]

https://nypost.com/2020/05/09/ncaa-no-c ... on-campus/

NCAA: No college sports until students are back on campus
By Zach Braziller May 9, 2020 | 12:58am

Bob Bowlsby and the unnamed commissioners who supported the idea of fall sports being played while schools offered online-only classes due to the novel coronavirus pandemic were shot down by NCAA president Mark Emmert on Friday night.

“College athletes are college students, and you can’t have college sports if you don’t have college [campuses] open and having students on them,” Emmert said on the NCAA’s Twitter channel. “You don’t want to ever put student-athletes at greater risk than the rest of the student body.”

Those comments came hours after Big East commissioner Val Ackerman said her conference had already decided fall sports would not be played if students aren’t allowed on campus. On Thursday, Bowlsby, the Big 12 commissioner, told Stadium online classes would be “satisfactory” to being able to bring student-athletes back to campus for fall sports. Other conference commissioners agreed with Bowlsby.

Yet, Emmert said every commissioner and president he has spoken to adheres to the belief that if regular students aren’t on campus, student-athletes can’t be, either. Something must have been lost in translation.

But what does a campus being open mean? What if there is a hybrid approach in which select students are brought back to campus because their coursework is dependent on them being there? Would student-athletes be included? There are Big East schools that are considering this approach.

“That doesn’t mean [schools have] to be up and running in the full normal model, but you’ve got to treat the health and well-being of the athletes at least as much as the regular students,” Emmert said. “So, if a school doesn’t reopen, then they’re not going to be playing sports. It’s really that simple.”

As for college basketball season, Ackerman said a decision would have to be made by Labor Day weekend if it will start on time. If the college football season is pushed back, which seems like a very realistic possibility, Ackerman said that could lead to basketball being delayed. But that hasn’t been discussed yet.

“We are proceeding right now as if it’s business as usual,” Ackerman said.

The Big East drew criticism for being the last high-major league to cancel its conference tournament. St. John’s and Creighton played a full half in an almost-empty Madison Square Garden before the tournament was canceled on March 12. Ackerman declined to say if the conference would have acted differently if it knew then what it knows now, with how prevalent the illness was in the city. But she reiterated that the league was working closely with local health and NCAA officials, and once it found out that large gatherings were going to be banned in the area, it made the decision to call off the tournament.

“Given what we knew at the moment, I think it was the best call we could’ve made,” she said.

[Foosball]

Doesn't look like it's going to happen...which I think is stupid.

Report: NFL won’t allow influx of players in supplemental draft.

Despite some talk that large numbers of college football players could enter this summer’s supplemental draft rather than wait to see if college football will be played at all, the NFL has no plans to let that happen.

The league has made it known in college football circles that it plans no significant changes to the supplemental draft to account for the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Pete Thamel of Yahoo.

That’s no surprise. As Florio noted on Sunday, the NFL isn’t eager to undermine college football, which provides the league with a free player development system that has been very successful and very lucrative for decades. An influx of players bolting from college football to the NFL this summer might benefit those players, but it doesn’t benefit either the NFL or the NCAA, and the NFL and NCAA aren’t going to make it easy for those players.

So the supplemental draft will go on as usual, with only a handful of players eligible.
(Report: NFL won’t allow influx of players in supplemental draft originally appeared on Pro Football Talk)

[Foosball]

Now that I think about it, this really is an idiotic decision if the league does not allow an influx of players in the supplemental.

If the League allowed would be seniors to enter the Supplemental Draft what would happen?

How it would affect the NCAA:
If the college players aren't playing this fall, then the loss of seniors would have no affect on the NCAA because they're not playing anyway!

How it would affect the NFL:
If the college players don't play, then the GMs wouldn't have 2020 film to grade and analyze the players for next years draft. So drafting a few seniors this summer would have no affect on the NFL. The only question is if it might have a small influence on the draft next year. With some of the players already being drafted. Other than that, there is no real negative here.

I would also think if the NCAA doesn't play this year, then some players that would have declared early might not due to inexperience and not having played their junior season. So that might affect next year's draft regardless.

[YoHoChecko]

Report: NFL won’t allow influx of players in supplemental draft.

Despite some talk that large numbers of college football players could enter this summer’s supplemental draft rather than wait to see if college football will be played at all, the NFL has no plans to let that happen.

The league has made it known in college football circles that it plans no significant changes to the supplemental draft to account for the COVID-19 pandemic, according to Pete Thamel of Yahoo.

I guess the next questions can surround what the words "influx" and "significant" mean to different people. Won't allow an "influx" and won't be making "significant" changes. What constitutes a significant change to the rules? Would a supplemental draft with, say, 20 prospects rather than the normal 2 or 3 be an "influx?"

I tend to take the league at it's reported word here, as I have long said I'll believe and rely on this when I see it... but a report with some vague terms certainly leaves room for a wide set of outcomes.

[Foosball]

Maybe the players who want to declare for the supplemental will be able to figure out a work around. Could even take the league to court.

[YoHoChecko]

Seemed relevant here, so I added it (with a small correction)

California state colleges are out for the fall. Which means no USC UCLA or Cal. Which means the odds that there is no college football in 2020 are now incredibly high.

The fact that they made a decision so early also puts some pressure on the NFL/NCAA to clarify the Supplemental Draft/College Eligibility questions for these schools and others.