Round 3 (94) - Josiah Deguara, TE Cincinnati

[YoHoChecko]

While I like Deguara, I think Moss would have given up MUCH better value. Deguara, while I like the players, might be the worst pick of 2020, IMO.

I definitely don't like the value in the 3rd. Like, ONLY if he becomes Delanie Walker does that feel good. Even if he's every ounce of these other guys I've compared it to, a 3rd feels rich. I mean, I guess Aaron Hernandez.

That said, as my years have advanced, I've come to see how few draft picks actually make it. So I'm a little more lenient with value.

It's tough, because I LOVED this player, but part of the love was that he'd be a Day Three guy that would be a sure bet to make the roster and be a versatile contributor... but always as just a guy that the fans could love. Like a Kuhn character--invaluable, well-liked, solid role, memorable big play impacts here and there, great fan reaction when he enters the game.

But that doesn't feel like the 3rd round. And being taken in the 3rd, especially as part of this "we don't have any weapons!" draft reaction mentality, likely negates his ability to be seen as a gritty fan favorite type rather than a "HE BETTER PRODUCE" type.

But in the end, I wanted this guy on our team. And now, he's on our team. So how upset can I really be about which pick it was, ya know? That just... feels silly.

[Pckfn23]

Oh ya, as far as the draft goes, this feels like the worst pick. Now that we have this player, I want him to kick ass and take names like he can!

[NCF]

Interesting thought here, where MM lived and died by 11 personnel, MLF does not. We still played a lot of 3 receivers last year, but less. If these guys that MLF clearly targeted for his offense are productive and on the field, even though we didn't get a WR in this draft... maybe we lessened the need by removing the 3rd WR from the field more often than not. Suddenly and it's Adams and Lazard/Funchess/MVS/EQ... it seems like it's less burdensome than trying to take two of those guys to fill two open spots.

Maybe Gute is stretching the truth when he says he likes the group, but maybe its just covering up the fact that it doesn't matter as much as it used to?

[YoHoChecko]

I am beginning to question your in the know status Yoho!

OHNO! haha

That surprises me! To be honest I didn't look a lot at Thaddeus Moss. Liked him in the college playoffs a lot, and definitely expected him to get drafted... but huh. I guess I didn't read up on him as much and played more off of assumptions from the playoff games. I wonder why I didn't dig more, in retrospect. Hopefully the Redskins enjoy him.

I solved this riddle!

Over-reliance on Dane Brugler and a lack of broader follow-up

185. Thaddeus Moss, TE, LSU (6-2, 250)
Moss displays athletic movements to stay smooth in and out of the drive phase, fluidly adjusting to throws with clamp hands to finish. As a blocker, he is physical and works hard to sustain or throw a shoulder but is more likely to end up on the ground than put a defender on the ground. Overall, Moss is a get-in-the-way blocker with the athletic catch point skills to be a steady short-to-intermediate target in the NFL, but his average speed and limitations should temper expectations

[British]

From leaked scouting report on Deguara

image.png (85.26 KiB) Viewed 565 times

Full piece: https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/josiah-de ... k-peek-213

[British]

While I like Deguara, I think Moss would have given up MUCH better value. Deguara, while I like the players, might be the worst pick of 2020, IMO.

I'm not sure why you think a guy who went undrafted by all 32 teams would have been better value than the Packers took in the 3rd round. Every single NFL front office deemed Moss not even worth a 7th. We know at least one decided Deguara was worth a 3rd.

If the Packers thought Moss was even comparable to Deguara one assume they would have used one of their two 7ths on him. But he wasn't even worth that.

[YoHoChecko]

From leaked scouting report on Deguara


image.png


Full piece: https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/josiah-de ... k-peek-213

Huh, that's fascinating. They say he runs like Kittle or Kelce, and is faster than Reed. I'll have to watch some things, I guess, but their timing certainly indicates that Deguara is more in the Jordan Reed range of speed than in the Kittle or Kelce range. He's also significantly shorter than the latter two. Whoever this scout is was VERY high on Deguara (probably a Packers scout, if you ask me).

Should be good to see him evolve and develop. Glad to hear his pass catching is worth much more than a typical FB type, though.

[Pckfn23]

While I like Deguara, I think Moss would have given up MUCH better value. Deguara, while I like the players, might be the worst pick of 2020, IMO.

I'm not sure why you think a guy who went undrafted by all 32 teams would have been better value than the Packers took in the 3rd round. Every single NFL front office deemed Moss not even worth a 7th. We know at least one decided Deguara was worth a 3rd.

If the Packers thought Moss was even comparable to Deguara one assume they would have used one of their two 7ths on him. But he wasn't even worth that.

Because what I see is that they offer pretty much the same thing. Good block, questionable athleticism and speed in the pass game. One was a 3rd rounder, one was a 7th.

I don't consider either a true TE, but more of a FB. That type doesn't get drafted high, almost ever. Another reason why I think bad value here.

[British]

While I like Deguara, I think Moss would have given up MUCH better value. Deguara, while I like the players, might be the worst pick of 2020, IMO.

I'm not sure why you think a guy who went undrafted by all 32 teams would have been better value than the Packers took in the 3rd round. Every single NFL front office deemed Moss not even worth a 7th. We know at least one decided Deguara was worth a 3rd.

If the Packers thought Moss was even comparable to Deguara one assume they would have used one of their two 7ths on him. But he wasn't even worth that.

Because what I see is that they offer pretty much the same thing. Good block, questionable athleticism and speed in the pass game. One was a 3rd rounder, one was a 7th.

I don't consider either a true TE, but more of a FB. That type doesn't get drafted high, almost ever. Another reason why I think bad value here.

Moss wasn't a 7th rounder. He went undrafted. This is why I think us fans need to be a bit more humble sometimes. You saw two guys who offered "pretty much the same thing". The professional scouts at the Packers front office saw a 3rd rounder and a guy they wouldn't even waste a 7th on. The entire league thought Moss was so bad they wouldn't touch him with any pick.

I think this demonstrates that fan's scouting thoughts are often not all that great.

[Pckfn23]

Sorry, yes, UDFA, not 7th. Mistyped that!

Once the Packers took Deguara, that cat was out of the bag, they weren't going to draft the same guy again. Or even sign him as an UDFA.

Now, here is what I was trying to understand in the first place. WHY? Why did Deguara go in the 3rd and Moss remained undrafted.

[Yoop]

I don't really care to much if Dequara ever catches a nfl pass, but he will, I also don't care if he ever runs the ball, but again, he will, what I do care about is that he can cut down DE's and lbers and spring our RB's for first down yardage, to me thats what we need from him the most, heck I thought thats why we picked him.

[YoHoChecko]

I'm not sure why you think a guy who went undrafted by all 32 teams would have been better value than the Packers took in the 3rd round. Every single NFL front office deemed Moss not even worth a 7th. We know at least one decided Deguara was worth a 3rd.

If the Packers thought Moss was even comparable to Deguara one assume they would have used one of their two 7ths on him. But he wasn't even worth that.

Because what I see is that they offer pretty much the same thing. Good block, questionable athleticism and speed in the pass game. One was a 3rd rounder, one was a 7th.

I don't consider either a true TE, but more of a FB. That type doesn't get drafted high, almost ever. Another reason why I think bad value here.

I'll say something here. I think there are degrees of "questionable speed." Deguara ran a 4.72, I think. You've personally pointed out that JerMichael FInley ran a 4.83. Zach Ertz, a top-quality TE, ran a 4.76. So Deguara, while not in the 4.6 range of Kelce or 4.5 range of Kittle or Evan Engram, he's still clearly in the "can be a top level contributor" range. The leaked scouting rport above mentions his speed as a plus, though I haven't seent hat widely.

Meanwhile, Moss's speed is mentioned as a minus, and he didn't run. He could have gone and tried to prove a doubt wrong. But he didn't. That's not necessarily his fault; a lot of championship game participants skipped the run, not knowing Pro Days might not exist. But the thing is that there's a difference between an acceptably-answered speed question and an unanswered speed question.

Without any sort of workout to address those concerns, Moss didn't make it. Maybe the scouts estimate him as closer to a 4.9 guy than a 4.7 guy.

[Pckfn23]

I still can't wrap my head around taking what is essentially a FB (William Henderson) in the 3rd. I love those guys, but I don't think the value is there that high.

[Waldo]

I still can't wrap my head around taking what is essentially a FB (William Henderson) in the 3rd. I love those guys, but I don't think the value is there that high.

Well incidentally...

Henderson was taken at the top of the 3rd

The Rams took their version of this guy, Gerald Everett, near the top of the 2nd.

[British]

Sorry, yes, UDFA, not 7th. Mistyped that!

Once the Packers took Deguara, that cat was out of the bag, they weren't going to draft the same guy again. Or even sign him as an UDFA.

Now, here is what I was trying to understand in the first place. WHY? Why did Deguara go in the 3rd and Moss remained undrafted.

If we're going to take the Occam's Razor approach, maybe it's because Deguara is a much better player than Moss?

And I don't buy that once the Packers took Deguara they took Moss off their board. We're told the H-Back is a vital part of the Packers new O. If they are similar why not give yourself the insurance of Moss in the 7th? What if Deguara gets injured in training camp? Or isn't that great? The you're without a key cog.

We've seen the Packers double dip at all kinds of positions and triple dip at IOL and WR the past two years.

If Moss was comparable to a their 3rd rounder at a position that is very valuable to this Packers team, they would have definitely taken Moss in the 7th.

[Drj820]

I still can't wrap my head around taking what is essentially a FB (William Henderson) in the 3rd. I love those guys, but I don't think the value is there that high.

No one else had him rated that high either. In fact, he didnt have himself rated that high..his entire family wasnt even in the room when he got the call! haha.

Im sure he can be helpful and maybe a great player for the Packers. But its okay to admit value wise, we got him way earlier than he would have been slotted to go. Now, i also agree that we probably just wanted him so bad we weren't willing to risk him not being around by the time the back of the 5th round rolled around. But that doesnt mean that we didnt reach. Sometimes reaching works out great and no one cares, but based on projections and positional value..we reached.

[YoHoChecko]

I still can't wrap my head around taking what is essentially a FB (William Henderson) in the 3rd. I love those guys, but I don't think the value is there that high.

Well incidentally...

Henderson was taken at the top of the 3rd

Ok, first, this is hilarious, but second [mention]Pckfn23[/mention], you don't understand because you're actively trying not to and ignoring the evidence being presented.

You asked about the difference between Moss and Deguara. British answered about the draft status and the simple solution that maybe Deguara is better, I pointed out that there is much greater speed risk with Moss because he didn't run, and perhaps you lumping "questional speed and athleticism" into a descriptor of both of them, Deguara timed and was scouted to have enough speed. He ran faster than Ertz, the same speed as Jordan Reed, much faster than Finley. Moss... didn't run, and maybe wasn't expected to run fast enough.

Then you get on your William Henderson kick, which is funny because he, too, was a 3rd round pick and valuable contributor to a Super Bowl team. But MORESO because Henderson never played TE. He was a FB who caught passes, not a versatile chess piece. Henderson wasn't lining up in-line, or splitting out in the slot except on very rare occasions. Henderson was a FB in the traditional FB mold who had more receiving ability. Henderson was more of a poor man's Larry Centers.

Deguara plays TE. He's lined up in-line, on the wing, in the slot, in the backfield. He is a versatile, moveable tool. You are CHOOSING a poor player-comp and then using it to depress value in a historically inaccurate way.

4 TEs were selected in the last 15 picks of the 3rd round.

Here they are:

image.png (12.18 KiB) Viewed 527 times

Are there any particular athletic deficiencies here that say he doesn't belong?

[Pckfn23]

Sorry, yes, UDFA, not 7th. Mistyped that!

Once the Packers took Deguara, that cat was out of the bag, they weren't going to draft the same guy again. Or even sign him as an UDFA.

Now, here is what I was trying to understand in the first place. WHY? Why did Deguara go in the 3rd and Moss remained undrafted.

If we're going to take the Occam's Razor approach, maybe it's because Deguara is a much better player than Moss?

And I don't buy that once the Packers took Deguara they took Moss off their board. We're told the H-Back is a vital part of the Packers new O. If they are similar why not give yourself the insurance of Moss in the 7th? What if Deguara gets injured in training camp? Or isn't that great? The you're without a key cog.

We've seen the Packers double dip at all kinds of positions and triple dip at IOL and WR the past two years.

If Moss was comparable to a their 3rd rounder at a position that is very valuable to this Packers team, they would have definitely taken Moss in the 7th.

Yes, that it is obvious that the Packers thought Deguara was the much better player, but again why?

You can't account for all What Ifs when building a team. Drafting another H-Back, just wouldn't make sense in terms of value. We already have that backup on the team and used him in that role last year, Sternberger.

There are essentially 3 starters at IOL and WR. I don't see that as double dipping in in the same vein as drafting 2 H-Backs. I think you are overvaluing the position compared to other positions, imo.

[Pckfn23]

I still can't wrap my head around taking what is essentially a FB (William Henderson) in the 3rd. I love those guys, but I don't think the value is there that high.

Well incidentally...

Henderson was taken at the top of the 3rd

Ok, first, this is hilarious, but second @Pckfn23, you don't understand because you're actively trying not to and ignoring the evidence being presented.

You asked about the difference between Moss and Deguara. British answered about the draft status and the simple solution that maybe Deguara is better, I pointed out that there is much greater speed risk with Moss because he didn't run, and perhaps you lumping "questional speed and athleticism" into a descriptor of both of them, Deguara timed and was scouted to have enough speed. He ran faster than Ertz, the same speed as Jordan Reed, much faster than Finley. Moss... didn't run, and maybe wasn't expected to run fast enough.

Then you get on your William Henderson kick, which is funny because he, too, was a 3rd round pick and valuable contributor to a Super Bowl team. But MORESO because Henderson never played TE. He was a FB who caught passes, not a versatile chess piece. Henderson wasn't lining up in-line, or splitting out in the slot except on very rare occasions. Henderson was a FB in the traditional FB mold who had more receiving ability. Henderson was more of a poor man's Larry Centers.

Deguara plays TE. He's lined up in-line, on the wing, in the slot, in the backfield. He is a versatile, moveable tool. You are CHOOSING a poor player-comp and then using it to depress value in a historically inaccurate way.

4 TEs were selected in the last 15 picks of the 3rd round.

Here they are:
image.png

Are there any particular athletic deficiencies here that say he doesn't belong?

Whoa, it's ok. I wasn't depressing or suppressing anything.

Your comparison to known speed and unknown speed is valid. I didn't say it wasn't. At the time it was the only explanation given.

I think you are getting WAY too bent out of shape over this, when right here in your post was the first time someone really tried the answer the question of why. Thank you.

[YoHoChecko]

You can't account for all What Ifs when building a team. Drafting another H-Back, just wouldn't make sense in terms of value. We already have that backup on the team and used him in that role last year, Sternberger.

There are essentially 3 starters at IOL and WR. I don't see that as double dipping in in the same vein as drafting 2 H-Backs. I think you are overvaluing the position compared to other positions, imo.

I mean, it's a 7th-round pick or UDFA. If they like the mold of the player, it makes total sense to add another player on the PS to train up and develop to fill Lewis' roster spot after he moves on next year. And honestly, I'd like to.

But I still stand by the risk of taking a player who looked slow on tape and who doesn't have a workout to verify his athletic ability. I'd also say that Deguara was more featured in his offense than Moss was in his, so there's a lot more tape of different kinds of usage.

Moss very well could turn into a valuable role player, but the lack of available info made him a much higher risk. Deguara compares favorably in athletic ability to other 3rd round TEs and has tape that shows that he uses his athletic traits in a variety of ways on the field, well.


Look, I agree that the 3rd was a bit rich for my blood even though I love the player. The 4th would have been fine.

But the preoccupation with Henderson and Moss when we have all very clearly spelled out the differences there, is blocking your ability to process this pick in an intellectually honest way. What, for instance, does Asiasi offer that Deguara doesn't? How much of a risk is Adam Trautman whose college tape looks like a college kid playing against High Schoolers, while only being able to muster a 4.80 40.