Round 1 (26) - Jordan Love, QB Utah State

[British]

Another nice film breakdown of a Jordan Love game

[YoHoChecko]

Honestly, now having read it, McGinn seems to genuinely dislike the selection of Jordan Love AND think Rodgers deserved to be replaced. It's a shockingly negative piece of writing (the top part, not the regular McGinn scouts' takes presented as objective with only mild hints at an agenda)

Here it is, with my bolding for extra emphasis on things that made me go

McGinn: After a curious draft, Packers didn’t improve their team immediately

The Packers have had some puzzling drafts in their history but seldom has there been one that left a stronger sense of WTF than the one that concluded Saturday night.

From their decision to trade up in the first round Thursday night to the pair of reaches Friday night to the string of injured players on Saturday, the Packers found a way to draft nine players without making a discernible improvement for the season ahead.

The selection of a quarterback in Round 1 was more than warranted. Aaron Rodgers, 36, is coming off two pedestrian seasons, and if he doesn’t step up his game in the next season or two the Packers might want to get out from under his onerous contract and begin life with someone else.

Is Jordan Love that someone? That’s what matters, and believe me when I say the jury’s out among personnel people across the NFL. The mixed reviews tend to be more no than yes.

General manager Brian Gutekunst, who was conducting his third draft, his staff and coach Matt LaFleur had Love rated extremely high on their board. A source with one of the two teams involved said the Packers called the Vikings in an attempt to move up from No. 30 to No. 25. Instead, the Vikings traded the pick to San Francisco, which had been at No. 31.

There had been widespread speculation that the Colts, whose first selection was No. 34, were thinking of trading up for Love. The truth, according to an NFL source, is that the Colts wouldn’t have even entertained taking Love until their second selection (No. 44) of the second round.

Another team might have beaten the Packers to Love had they remained at No. 30. It’s also possible no trade would have been necessary.

It was a risk the Packers weren’t going to take. Thus, they shipped their fourth-round pick to Miami to move up and draft Love with the Dolphins’ choice at No. 26.

The Packers’ infatuation with Love didn’t mesh with what his value seemed to be around the league. Talented or not, he had a disappointing year for Utah State in 2019. Many doubts have been raised about Love. One thing he isn’t is a can’t-miss prospect.

Public niceties aside, my sense is LaFleur, fresh from a terrific 13-3 baptismal season, simply had enough of Rodgers’ act and wanted to change the narrative. With a first-round talent on the roster, the Packers would gain leverage with their imperial quarterback and his passive-aggressive style. If the Packers do indeed want to become a running team next season, they surely wouldn’t want Rodgers rocking the boat and becoming even more difficult to coach.

It’ll work for the general manager and the coach only if Love can play. If he can’t, and at best the Packers might have a 50-50 shot of success with their bold stroke, Gutekunst and LaFleur ultimately might be gone. It’s just the way it works with franchise-turning decisions and first-round quarterbacks.

Love has the arm and athleticism to draw Rodgers’ attention the first time they set foot together on the practice field. If Love can perform appreciably better in the unenviable role as Rodgers’ backup for two years than Rodgers did as Brett Favre’s backup in 2005-06, maybe it would buoy his confidence and propel him to a long, successful career in Green Bay.

In the summer of 2005, Craig Nall outperformed Rodgers but lost out on the No. 2 job mainly for political reasons. The same might happen in the next training camp because Tim Boyle has two years of experience on Love, an excellent arm of his own and considerable praise from within the NFC North personnel departments as a player with upside. The presence of Boyle is another reason to question why the Packers felt compelled to trade up in the first round.

Gutekunst’s comment that this class of wide receivers was about 12 deep rang true. Once he traded that fourth-round pick and took Love, he lacked the ammunition to move up sufficiently high in the second round to select a wide receiver. After that, the Packers were behind the eight ball and seemingly never in a position to draft capable help at the position.

Other than signing Boyle as a rookie free agent, Gutekunst’s other acquisition at quarterback was trading for Cleveland’s DeShone Kizer in March 2018. Gutekunst had been high on Kizer in 2017 when the Browns drafted him in the second round (No. 52). After Kizer started 15 games for the winless Browns as a rookie, it was Gutekunst who initiated trade talks with Cleveland to bring Kizer to Green Bay.

The fact that Kizer proved that he couldn’t play engendered little trust in Gutekunst’s ability to evaluate quarterbacks.

Jordan Love, QB, Utah State
Rookie contribution: 1, career contribution: 5

If Love had entered the draft as a third-year sophomore a year ago, one personnel man said he might well have been a top-10 pick. His NFL passer rating of 110.7 for the 11-1 Aggies couldn’t have been more impressive.

When coach David Wells and offensive coordinator David Yost departed for Texas Tech, Love assumed command of a shotgun attack coordinated by Mike Sanford for coach Gary Andersen. Utah State went 7-6 as Love’s rating crashed to 82.8. His supporting cast on offense wasn’t as good, either.

“This year he got a new offense and just wasn’t able to master it,” one personnel man said. “That showed in his play. He didn’t play terrible but he didn’t have a whole lot of big wins. Talent-wise, he has as much as any of the guys in the draft. Our (psychology) guy had concerns about his confidence and mental toughness. Obviously, that’s not good for a quarterback. We could not marry ourselves to this guy being the face of the franchise and being the guy.”

One veteran scout said there was no way Love was as smart as Rodgers. Few quarterbacks are.

Although charges were dismissed, Love being cited in student housing for possession of marijuana in mid-December six days before the Frisco Bowl disturbed evaluators. Despite relaxed penalties for marijuana, it still constitutes an illegal substance in the NFL. Teams shudder about having their quarterback on the evening news.

“He’s kind of soft-spoken but confident,” said one personnel director who has interviewed Love. “Has some leadership. He doesn’t light up a room. OK in a meeting session. Not sure how he’ll be in a huddle. … It’s a big risk. You appreciate the guts it took to take him, especially in light of where they’re at. Usually, when someone gets criticized so much it works out.”

Love has the arm to make every throw. He’s dangerous throwing on the move and can run for first downs. He possesses elite hand size (10 ½ inches), is a fluid athlete and will exhibit some swagger. His accuracy has been streaky.

On the field, it is Love’s decision-making that seems to worry scouts the most. “Can he digest everything about professional football? That’s going to be a big deal,” a veteran personnel scout said.

Another executive admired Love’s quick release, toughness and the fact he wasn’t a whiner.

“He looks the part but he’s erratic,” the exec said. “His problem is he makes a lot of poor decisions. Loses focus. You question his vision. You don’t like the accuracy when he’s pressured. Questionable football instincts.”

As a rookie, Rodgers had Darrell Bevell as his quarterbacks coach before coach Mike McCarthy and quarterbacks coach Tom Clements took over as tutors the following season. With their able assistance Rodgers turned his sagging career around and by 2009 was in the Pro Bowl. It remains to be seen if quarterbacks coach Luke Getsy and LaFleur have the chops to hone Love’s raw talent to such a degree.

[Pckfn23]

McGinn Piece before Draft:

My poll of 17 executives asked each to rank his five best quarterbacks. A first-place vote was worth 5 points, a second-place vote was worth 4 and so forth.

Joe Burrow, with 15 firsts and 83 points, was the runaway winner. Tagovailoa, who had the other two firsts, was second with 60 points.

Following, in order, were Justin Herbert (55 points), Jordan Love (36), Jacob Eason (13), Jake Fromm (three), Anthony Gordon (two), Jalen Hurts (two) and Steven Montez (one).

4. JORDAN LOVE, Utah State (6-3 ½, 224, 4.71, 1-2): Love is a fourth-year junior from Bakersfield, Calif. “He has the most physical upside of any of these guys,” said one scout. “The great ones make things look easy. He makes it look easy. He’s an effortless thrower. He played with nobody around him. This year he was just out there winging it trying to make plays to win games. Did he develop some bad habits? Yeah, of course he did. But you can rein that in. It’s (easier) to get guys that like to play it safe and check down and be chain-movers. It’s hard to get those guys that push the ball down the field. He’s the only quarterback I ever scouted who will throw into bigger windows as a pro than he did in college. Those guys did not get open for him. If he ends up outside the top 10 we could be saying, ‘How the heck did Jordan Love last that long?’ He’s just got that play-making ability.” In 2018, his best season, his NFL passer rating was 110.7. Last year, with a depleted supporting cast, it was 82.8 for a career mark of 92.0. Career record was 21-11. “The body language was awful and the accuracy was worse,” another scout said. “He didn’t look like he knew what he was doing or that he wanted to play. There were numerous times he’s looking right at an open wideout or a tight end coming right in the middle and the two linebackers are on the hashes and there’s a receiver standing in the middle of the field and he doesn’t throw it to him. Or he throws it to him late. I don’t think he’s correctable.” His vertical jump of 35 ½ inches tied Herbert for the best among the top quarterbacks. Cited for marijuana possession in December. “He’s a risk-reward guy,” a third scout said. “You question the makeup. He got (cited) for weed. You don’t want the face of your franchise getting (cited) for weed … (Editor’s note: Charges were ultimately dropped in January). It’s really going to take some time because the offense he played in is pretty simple. But a terrific athlete, quick release, plenty of arm, big hands (10 ½), great touch, accurate on the move. But poor decisions, question his focus, his vision, his accuracy against pressure. He’s soft-spoken and confident. Not great on the board. You know, good luck.” Love posted a Wonderlic of 27.

What these mysterious Scouts said before the draft but McGinn published right after we drafted Love:

What NFL personnel told The Athletic Wisconsin’s Bob McGinn before the draft about Utah State quarterback Jordan Love, the Packers’ selection Thursday night in the first round.

AFC scout: “He’s talented but he’s a ways away. He is mobile. You don’t like him having the issue with marijuana before the bowl game. That’s not a good look for a franchise quarterback.”

AFC scout: “He’s physically gifted but he’s not accurate. He is a good athlete. He played decently last year but then the coach (Matt Wells) went to Texas Tech. He can run and has a decent arm. I don’t like him. Fourth or fifth round. Look at the Jordan Love that played against Michigan State (in 2018) and Wake Forest this year, not the Jordan Love that plays against New Mexico and Colorado State. The guy that he’s closest to is Jameis Winston. I’d grade Winston higher because he played at Florida State and won a national championship. When Jordan Love came out of high school he had one scholarship offer. Now people tell me, ‘Last year under Matt Wells he had a great season.’ I said the new coach, Gary Andersen, is a better coach than Wells. … I don’t like his mechanics. I don’t like his decision-making. He has a strong arm. He’s not a big-time athlete. Lamar Jackson’s mechanics and decision-making weren’t that great but Lamar Jackson could run and break them down. This guy is not a runner. … He can’t do the stuff (Patrick) Mahomes does. Mahomes was not as fast but Mahomes was a much better pure athlete. Neither one is a runner.”

AFC scout: “If he doesn’t go first round it’s because of character. He has the skill set to go first round. … It’s more stupid, immaturity &%$@. He’s not a brain surgeon when it comes to football. He’s not super dumb. But he’s not Tom Brady or Peyton Manning or anything approaching that level.”

NFC scout: “First round for sure. I have him No. 2 behind Tua (Tagovailoa). Super talented, moxie, excellent feel. He throws the ball from all the angles: on the move, under pressure. Has vision. Had a lot of picks: ‘I’m just going to throw this ball in there.’ He’s under siege just about every time he drops back because his offensive line is not good. He’s got nowhere close to NFL receivers; they can’t get open and drop balls. He has to elevate his game on every play and elevate the whole team on every play. One of the best plays you’ll see was in the LSU game when he escapes the pocket and he’s out on the move and throws the ball across his body and it hits (the receiver) in the chest and he drops the ball. That’s just kind of him in a nutshell. I’d prefer it if he goes somewhere where he doesn’t have to play next year.”

AFC scout: “Talented. A lot of upside. He has starter talent. With the coaching change and the lack of talent he had around him, it hurt him. If he can sit behind an established veteran for a couple of years and learns how to be a pro. … “

NFC scout: “He has the most physical upside of any of these guys. The great ones make it look easy. He makes it look easy. He’s an effortless thrower. He played with nobody around him. This year he was just out there winging it trying to make plays to win games. Did he develop some bad habits? Yeah, of course, he did. But you can rein that in. It’s (easier) to get guys that like to play it safe and check down and be chain-movers. It’s hard to get those guys that push the ball down the field. He’s the only quarterback I ever scouted who will throw into bigger windows as a pro than he did in college. Those guys did not get open for him. If he ends up outside the top 10 we could be saying, ‘How the heck did Jordan Love last that long?’ He’s just got that play-making ability. … He played with nobody around him. Lost an NFL tight end (Dax Raymond), lost an NFL running back (Darwin Thompson). People knock his decision-making. He was 32-6 (touchdown to interception ratio) in 2018 and 21-17 this year. That’s not decision-making. That’s a guy trying to make plays to win games. … He’s really cool. He’s got a nice calm about him. If anyone says he didn’t play well against LSU, lose credibility for that person. He played well against LSU, and his guys let him down. He put the ball on the money and guys were dropping balls on him. The talent discrepancy on that field that day was enormous.”

NFC scout: “The body language was awful and the accuracy was worse. He didn’t look like he knew what he was doing or that he wanted to play. There were numerous times he’s looking right at an open wideout or a tight end coming right in the middle and the two linebackers are on the hashes and there’s a receiver standing in the middle of the field and he doesn’t throw it to him. Or he throws it to him late. I don’t think he’s correctable. … I don’t see the production. I don’t see the attitude. Boy, he is a good-looking kid. He does have a strong arm. But he’s not decisive. He got pulled out of at least two games. He’s got first-round talent if you overlook the accuracy. I don’t think he’s accurate and I think his vision is really limited. I don’t see Patrick Mahomes in him. He’s mobile, but he’s not that mobile.”

NFC scout: “He’s talented. He is. He’s a little erratic with the accuracy but he can do things with the ball. He can run. He’s got a strong arm. It’s just the field vision, the decision-making. Granted, a different coordinator this year and he was throwing to receivers that were 5-8. … He’s a risk-reward guy. You question the makeup. He got arrested for weed. You don’t want the face of your franchise getting arrested for weed. … It’s going to take some time because the offense he played in is pretty simple. But a terrific athlete, quick release, plenty of arm, big hands, great touch, accurate on the move. But poor decisions, question his focus, his vision, his accuracy against pressure. He’s soft-spoken and confident. Not great on the board. You know, good luck.”

AFC scout: “He’s got physical upside. He’s inconsistent game to game. You wish he made more good decisions at times. His accuracy is OK, not elite.”

AFC scout: “I’m not a fan. Everybody else seems to be. Does he make smart decisions? I don’t think so. Average arm strength. Slow decision-maker. I don’t know if he reads coverages. Wide receivers have to work to make tough adjustment catches. Elusive, not fast. Everybody keeps telling me 2018 was different. Why did he regress? There’s a lot of excuses. Somebody’s going to take a shot here. I don’t know if it’s worth it. Some people have tried to compare him to Mahomes but I don’t see it.”

AFC scout: “Don’t like him. Excellent athlete. Arm talent. Has never been coached and no supporting cast, but I worry about the intangibles. Ain’t my kind of guy.”

As I have been saying for YEARS, he cherry picks what he wants to put into his opinion pieces. The only total picture you get is when he puts together pieces like the latter quote.

[Captain_Ben]

What's with the knocks on his character from some of those guys? I haven't heard anything about that. What am I missing?

[Pckfn23]

What's with the knocks on his character from some of those guys? I haven't heard anything about that. What am I missing?

Nothing, he got wrongly accused of possession of weed, charges were dropped.

[YoHoChecko]

What these mysterious Scouts said before the draft by McGinn published right after we drafted Love:

Are suggesting... that McGinn intentionally selected from 17 scouts which 3 he would follow up with to make sure that the quotes he received would match his pre-determined narrative??

[Pckfn23]

What these mysterious Scouts said before the draft by McGinn published right after we drafted Love:

Are suggesting... that McGinn intentionally selected from 17 scouts which 3 he would follow up with to make sure that the quotes he received would match his pre-determined narrative??

100% I am.

[NCF]

Well of course there are always exceptions, and the only example you could come up with was Matt Flynn’s cheap contract in Seattle to the Aaron’s highest (at signing) contract in NFL history.

That's just an interesting case where everyone goes, "see?", without realizing they are paying a QB for sitting on the bench. Eli, Peyton, Roethlisberger, and Garropolo came this close. Matt Ryan came this close. Brees, Kurt Warner. There is a smattering of QB's on the list if you include SB participants that just makes me think this is more coincidence than proven trend. Especially when we start using specific numbers like 13% of cap. Want to know why no QB has ever won a SB making that much on the cap? Because up to 5-10 years ago it never happened. This is new. So we are basing these "facts" off recent occurrences and I personally question the conclusions being drawn.

[NCF]

From CHTV Draft Guide:

In a nutshell:
Tantalizing is the word used most to describe Jordan Love’s
arm talent. Many scouts have compared it favorably to Patrick
Mahomes coming out of Texas Tech. Love has the rare ability
to throw on target from several different arm angles and can
throw on the run and have the ball “jump” out of his hand.
Blessed with ideal size and above-average athleticism, Love
has the ideal characteristics for today’s NFL.
Statistically, Love had a much better season in 2018 than he
did in 2019, prompting some speculation as to whether he
suffered a regression. In Love’s 2018 season, he passed for 3567
yards and 32 touchdowns with only six interceptions. In 2019,
Love’s touchdown total dropped to 20 and his interception total
grew to 17. One explanation for this statistical drop-off was
the fact that Utah State had to replace eight starters on offense
from the previous year. This was coupled with the fact that
Love himself has said that there were times when he pressed
and forced throws into coverage when guys weren’t open.
Overall, Love has many unique talents and traits. Although the
turnovers are an issue and he needs to take better care of the ball
at the next level, few players over the last several years possess
his arm talent, and this should make him a first-round pick.
FIT WITH THE PACKERS:
Love’s arm talent alone would make him a perfect fit for the
Packers. Coming from a smaller school has allowed Love to
play a lot, but he lacks some experience against top defenses.
Playing behind Rodgers for a couple of years would be perfect
as he continues to develop. More than likely, the Packers would
have to trade up into the teens to have a chance at Love.
However, he would be the perfect heir apparent to Rodgers.

[RingoCStarrQB]

I like the pick. Needed an ILB more, clearly, but Rodgers hasn't been good and if we want to win, he needs to play better than he has, especially in the playoffs against tough defenses.

This either lights a fire under him (which is needed), or it doesn't and then we move on. Time to &%$@ or get off the pot.

Hey Texas .............have you bought your Jordan Love jersey yet?

Hey everyone .............have you bought your Jordan Love jersey yet? There are a few on this board that aren't ready to go there yet. What does Yooper have to say ............. ready to go out stylin' wearing your new Jordan Love jersey?



p.s. In case you're wondering I have never owned an Aaron Rodgers jersey.

[NCF]

Hey everyone .............have you bought your Jordan Love jersey yet?

I'm honestly thinking about it, but not until TC is near and I know we are actually having a season.

[go pak go]

I like the pick. Needed an ILB more, clearly, but Rodgers hasn't been good and if we want to win, he needs to play better than he has, especially in the playoffs against tough defenses.

This either lights a fire under him (which is needed), or it doesn't and then we move on. Time to &%$@ or get off the pot.

Hey Texas .............have you bought your Jordan Love jersey yet?

Hey everyone .............have you bought your Jordan Love jersey yet? There are a few on this board that aren't ready to go there yet. What does Yooper have to say ............. ready to go out stylin' wearing your new Jordan Love jersey?



p.s. In case you're wondering I have never owned an Aaron Rodgers jersey.

He is actually going to be my next jersey. Now mind you I used to buy a lot of jerseys. But I haven't bought a Nike jersey yet and that's been what now...8 years?

I bought Rodgers with the 31 star NFL logo and I will buy Love's too.

I love supporting the guy everyone else hates. The guy needs love. He's a Packer for cripes sake.

I cannot tell you how much sh*t I got from 2006 - late 2008 for wearing my #12 jersey. From Packers fans.

It's why I get so mad when the resounding majority claim they were always fans of the Rodgers pick and it made complete sense as Favre was on his way out anyways.

[Drj820]

My next jersey will be savage when he gets to switch to number 21.

[lupedafiasco]

My next jersey will be savage when he gets to switch to number 21.

I refuse to buy it until that switch is made. When it does happen I will buy it day one. Biggest waste of a name and jersey combo ever.

[British]

Pete Dougherty with a pretty good summary of the Love pick.

image.png (45.11 KiB) Viewed 1150 times

Unusual draft ushering in era of profound change for Packers' offense
https://eu.packersnews.com/story/sports ... 023726001/

[Labrev]

I'm really lukewarm on him from his scouting-reports. He does not read like "can't miss" to me. He's pretty much Deshone Kizer as a prospect (not saying he's going to bust like Kizer, especially not given a much better situation for his formative pro years, just that this type of prospect is not rare/can't-miss).

And the idea that the opportunity to draft a QB like this, for a team like us that often picks late, will not come in the nearer future... is a pretty clear non-sequitur. The obvious flaw with the statement is: it just happened.

Not only that, but we moved up to take him, which is always an option if you feel like you need to go "get your guy" that year.

And, like I said, guys like this are not THAT rare. Kizer was a 2nd if you are set on that mold of QB. If you're more flexible, Ravens got Lamar Jackson at 32. Wilson was a 3rd.

Point is, we are past the point where you need to be picking high to get a franchise QB, readymade or developmental.

[Drj820]

I'm really lukewarm on him from his scouting-reports. He does not read like "can't miss" to me. He's pretty much Deshone Kizer as a prospect (not saying he's going to bust like Kizer, especially not given a much better situation for his formative pro years, just that this type of prospect is not rare/can't-miss).

And the idea that the opportunity to draft a QB like this, for a team like us that often picks late, will not come in the nearer future... is a pretty clear non-sequitur. The obvious flaw with the statement is: it just happened.

Not only that, but we moved up to take him, which is always an option if you feel like you need to go "get your guy" that year.

And, like I said, guys like this are not THAT rare. Kizer was a 2nd if you are set on that mold of QB. If you're more flexible, Ravens got Lamar Jackson at 32. Wilson was a 3rd.

Point is, we are past the point where you need to be picking high to get a franchise QB, readymade or developmental.

Yea great post. Ive said my peace enough for the most part...but just to jump on your train..back when rodgers was selected there was really like 10 good qbs in the league, and 20 that limited teams and sucked. Now they pretty much grow on trees. Think of all the decent QBs that would have been fought over 5 years ago, that now are looking for starting jobs. This will only increase as more and more athletes start to play qb. Its simply not a problem we had to address right now, and Love is not some sort of hall of fame potentialled prospect...like your "obvious flaw: it just happened" statement...i would add that an obvious flaw with thinking Love is some cant miss prospect is: 25 teams just passed on him, including the QB Needy Patriots".

So maybe he turns out to be HOF, but the idea that this was the only good opportunity to get his replacement is flawed.

[YoHoChecko]

I'm really lukewarm on him from his scouting-reports. He does not read like "can't miss" to me. He's pretty much Deshone Kizer as a prospect (not saying he's going to bust like Kizer, especially not given a much better situation for his formative pro years, just that this type of prospect is not rare/can't-miss).

And the idea that the opportunity to draft a QB like this, for a team like us that often picks late, will not come in the nearer future... is a pretty clear non-sequitur. The obvious flaw with the statement is: it just happened.

Not only that, but we moved up to take him, which is always an option if you feel like you need to go "get your guy" that year.

And, like I said, guys like this are not THAT rare. Kizer was a 2nd if you are set on that mold of QB. If you're more flexible, Ravens got Lamar Jackson at 32. Wilson was a 3rd.

Point is, we are past the point where you need to be picking high to get a franchise QB, readymade or developmental.

Fascinating take on a lot of levels.

Let's start up top. Of COURSE he's not "can't miss." Can't miss QBs go top 5 (and some of those still bust). Read Mahomes' scouting reports. Read Deshawn Watson's. Paco posted them earlier in this thread, I'll post them again:

10. Patrick Mahomes, QB Texas Tech — Kansas City Chiefs (from Buffalo)
Grade: C-
Analysis: Calling Mahomes a project is a major understatement. He’s nowhere near ready to play in the NFL. And, honestly, he may never be. Between his inconsistent accuracy due to poor mechanics, his tendency to bail from clean pockets and his lack of field vision, he’s going to leave as many big plays on the field as he creates. This was a risky pick.

12. Deshaun Watson, QB Clemson — Houston Texans (from CLE via PHI)
Grade: C+
Analysis: The Texans finally get their quarterback of the future. Or so they think. I’m not so sure Watson will ever develop into a top QB, but he’ll be an improvement over what they’ve had in Houston the last few years. That’s not saying a whole lot. The Clemson star needs to hit the deep ball more consistently and do a better job of reading defenses.

You're using rare exceptions like Wilson and Prescott to justify a strategy that is shaky at best.

Let's look at the top passing yardage guys from last year, and draft position:
1. Jamies Winston: #1 overall
2. Dak Prescott: #135 overall
3. Jared Goff: #2 overall
4. Phillip Rivers: #4 overall
5. Matt Ryan: #3 overall
6. Russell Wilson: #75 overall
7. Tom Brady: #199 overall
8. Derek Carr: #36 overall
9. Carson Wentz: #2 overall
10. Patrick Mahomes: #10 overall
11. Aaron Rodgers: #24 overall
12. Jimmy Garapolo: #62 overall
13. Deshawn Watson: #12 overall
14. Baker Mayfield: #1 overall
15. Kyler Murray: #1 overall

We're past the point of needing to use a premium pick for a franchise QB? Come on. Nine of the top 15 were top 15 picks. Rodgers and Carr in the 20-40 range. Jimmy G and Wilson in the 60 to 75 range. Prescott and Brady 4th round or later.

So that's 10 of 15 in the First Round. 11 of 15 in the top 40. 13 of 15 in the top Two Rounds.

That's not an accident.

[Labrev]

I'm really lukewarm on him from his scouting-reports. He does not read like "can't miss" to me. He's pretty much Deshone Kizer as a prospect (not saying he's going to bust like Kizer, especially not given a much better situation for his formative pro years, just that this type of prospect is not rare/can't-miss).

And the idea that the opportunity to draft a QB like this, for a team like us that often picks late, will not come in the nearer future... is a pretty clear non-sequitur. The obvious flaw with the statement is: it just happened.

Not only that, but we moved up to take him, which is always an option if you feel like you need to go "get your guy" that year.

And, like I said, guys like this are not THAT rare. Kizer was a 2nd if you are set on that mold of QB. If you're more flexible, Ravens got Lamar Jackson at 32. Wilson was a 3rd.

Point is, we are past the point where you need to be picking high to get a franchise QB, readymade or developmental.

Fascinating take on a lot of levels.

Let's start up top. Of COURSE he's not "can't miss." Can't miss QBs go top 5 (and some of those still bust). Read Mahomes' scouting reports. Read Deshawn Watson's. Paco posted them earlier in this thread, I'll post them again:

10. Patrick Mahomes, QB Texas Tech — Kansas City Chiefs (from Buffalo)
Grade: C-
Analysis: Calling Mahomes a project is a major understatement. He’s nowhere near ready to play in the NFL. And, honestly, he may never be. Between his inconsistent accuracy due to poor mechanics, his tendency to bail from clean pockets and his lack of field vision, he’s going to leave as many big plays on the field as he creates. This was a risky pick.

12. Deshaun Watson, QB Clemson — Houston Texans (from CLE via PHI)
Grade: C+
Analysis: The Texans finally get their quarterback of the future. Or so they think. I’m not so sure Watson will ever develop into a top QB, but he’ll be an improvement over what they’ve had in Houston the last few years. That’s not saying a whole lot. The Clemson star needs to hit the deep ball more consistently and do a better job of reading defenses.

You're using rare exceptions like Wilson and Prescott to justify a strategy that is shaky at best.

To be clear, it's not just Love as a prospect. It's: Love as a prospect + it's too early for a QB + we are within striking distance of a SB. Change any 1 of those things and I may have been able to get on board with this pick. Also, I'm not yet at the point with Gute where I'm willing to defer to his judgment like I could after a few years with TT, but it's likely too early for that regardless.

Neither KC nor Houston was that. Both were situations where the QB would be playing soon without cutting short an already-good starter. Mahomes is also one of the only QBs in the game right now whose talent and future would possibly justify cutting Rodgers's tenure with us short. I would have passed on a Watson at our pick this year, personally, to take someone who'd see the field, even if I could somehow know he'd pan out as he has.

So yes, theoretically, this pick could prove me wrong by my own standards. If Love is the next Mahomes, you can feed me all the crow. Short of that, I would have rather gone all-in with Rodgers (who I don't even really like that much). Sorry if that sounds short-sighted, it probably is, but I feel like you have to ride-or-die with the contract we gave him.

Let's look at the top passing yardage guys from last year, and draft position: {-snip-}

We're past the point of needing to use a premium pick for a franchise QB? Come on. Nine of the top 15 were top 15 picks. Rodgers and Carr in the 20-40 range. Jimmy G and Wilson in the 60 to 75 range. Prescott and Brady 4th round or later.

So that's 10 of 15 in the First Round. 11 of 15 in the top 40. 13 of 15 in the top Two Rounds.

That's not an accident.

Then trade-up for it. We ended up doing that anyway. If they were set on drafting a QB, this was the year to try to steal one like SEA with Wilson, or DAL with Prescott.

'Just not really feeling the strategy here, short-term or even long-. We'll see.

[lupedafiasco]

As I have been saying for YEARS, he cherry picks what he wants to put into his opinion pieces. The only total picture you get is when he puts together pieces like the latter quote.

He obviously talked to a lot of scouts about a lot of players. He writes his piece before the draft and uses what he thinks is the best and after the draft he releases all of it for the players drafted. I dont see whats wrong with that. Imagine he listed everything every scout said prior to the draft. It would be a TLDR for too many casual draft fans.