2020 General Draft Discussion

[British]

Yep. I think this is why trying to go "all in" is generally a bad strategy. Everything can align perfectly and you can still end up a loser. When you're the better team and have outplayed people all year, the structure of the playoffs is a real leveler.

That's why I think the best route to success is to ensure you consistently get into the playoffs. Can't win the lottery if you don't have a ticket.

[Yoop]

Yep. I think this is why trying to go "all in" is generally a bad strategy. Everything can align perfectly and you can still end up a loser. When when you're the better team and have outplayed people all year, the structure of the playoffs is a real leveler.

That's why I think the best route to success is to ensure you consistently get into the playoffs. Can't win the lottery if you don't have a ticket.

this isn't enough any more, hell half the conference get to the playoffs now, sure any given Sunday one team can beat another (maybe), any team with a good QB, some receivers and a average defense can consistently make the playoffs, problem is when they face the better playoff teams the odds of winning are against them.

It would be great to win it all this year, but this team is still building, I need to see more players step up on offense, where still thin at ILB and 3rd and 4th CB, No one is happy with our #2 or 3 DT, my point is we still have to rely to much on questionable ( luck, health, refs) stuff for help, stuff we have no control over, even the most rounded out teams need help from these sources, they just don't have to rely on it near as much.

[NCF]

Really, really interesting listen. Some might remember that JustisM actually spent some time posting on the old board before paying gigs kind of pulled him away.

[Pckfn23]

Ya, I listened to it yesterday. Pretty good.

[YoHoChecko]

Really, really interesting listen. Some might remember that JustisM actually spent some time posting on the old board before paying gigs kind of pulled him away.

I gotta say, I've never much agreed with Justis in his opinion realm when he was a poster. He has the insider look now and he clearly has made something of himself as an evaluator and a media personality.

But I'm just not sure what is interesting about this. He's just another guy who sees a power back selected and immediately assumes it's a pick about the future (2021) and replacing Jones rather than about right now. He sees the QB pick and wonders what the second contract will be like (though his Teddy Bridgewater money as a comparison is such a completely different scenario that it's an irresponsible cherry-pick to use--primarily because this is Bridgewater's 3rd contract and he's been a starter before).

I liked when Herman tried to take the analytics angle onto the AJ Dillon pick and Justis was just like "the analytics actually really like him, but I don't like the pick." Then went full opinion and speculation. Never gave us any insight into the analytics he used that liked Dillon or anything.

I just don't see any level of insight in this podcast that goes beyond any rando on this site. Talking this draft out with Salmar and NCF and Drj and 23 has been FAR more insightful than this guy.

I'm just getting into the Deguara stuff and immediately it sounds better, so I'll comment again. But so far, he just seems like another fan speculating. It's not that he doesn't have insight or expertise, it's that he's responding to the draft more from his fan/emotional side than from his insightful indsidery side.

[Pckfn23]

Maybe I wasn't paying attention enough, but didn't he suggest that Dillon was a Williams replacement?

Nothing earth shattering for sure, but some good things in there.

[NCF]

But I'm just not sure what is interesting about this.

Actually, I don't fully disagree, it was the XFL stuff that I found particularly interesting.

[NCF]

Talking this draft out with Salmar and NCF and Drj and 23 has been FAR more insightful

Also why we are doing are own Draft show next year.

[YoHoChecko]

Maybe I wasn't paying attention enough, but didn't he suggest that Dillon was a Williams replacement?

Nothing earth shattering for sure, but some good things in there.

They talked about how when Jones comes out of the game, this guy can maybe lessen the dropoff to Williams. But he said that as soon as the pick was made, he thought "ok, well they're not re-signing the RBs then--Jones and Williams are probably gone). And mentioned that briefly first. And then, again, he dismissed the analytics angle and told a story about how he told his girlfriend right before the pick he hoped it wasn't this guy... he hoped it was Zach Moss! (if you liked Moss better than Dillon, I'm not overwhelmingly impressed with your evaluation skills)

And then they talked a bunch about how he didn't catch passes but maybe he can catch passes, and then talked about how different his offense was because it played in tight and relied on Dillon entirely, but mentioned that as a question to how he would translate without mentioning, as some other have, how running against stack boxes in a tight formation likely limited him in college.

At least with Love he made the point that Rodgers' contract is un-tradeable for two years, which many people seem to overlook when having these discussions. But, yeah, I just didn't hear anything interesting about the Packers in the first portion of the podcast. The XFL stuff was kinda neat

[YoHoChecko]

This Deguara segment is really good, though.

They're going into college game specifics from him. Comparisons to where he might play with actual names from other teams, as it compared to what he did at Cincy and what roles he played best; mentioned the Ed Dixon/Greg Olsen Panthers to point out that you can still catch passes from the backside blocker role, and of course the Jusczcyk comp, which he affirmed.

Said backside block and FB role were his most likely path to the field his rookie year, but that was a pretty regular contribution for a 3rd round rookie.

If they went over each pick with this level of film references and player/formation comps, it WOULD have been a really interesting podcast.

Also nice to have two Tonyan fans gettin' together and being optimistic about him.

And he explained exactly why I was able to nail the Jon Runyan pick, since he hit every mark for Packers OL draft picks.

[salmar80]

Talking this draft out with Salmar and NCF and Drj and 23 has been FAR more insightful

Also why we are doing are own Draft show next year.

[YoHoChecko]

One thing I will say, looking back on that podcast, that I appreciated, was the understanding of pour WR situation...


...the notion that yeah, we needed a WR, but we don't need depth or bodies or development; we need a WR2. So drafting just anyone wasn't going to matter, and by the time we picked, the top 6 guys were off the board. The second round (when we are reported to have tried to move up) really was our last shot at getting a WR 2/3 as a rookie, and even that's a bit of a stretch. Once that missed, we have plenty of NFL-caliber bodies and skills. They're just risky projections to serve as starters.

[bud fox]

Do you think we re-sign Jones? Do you think Dillon will be anything more than a back up RB this year?

Don't see anything wrong with either of those points. It is more likely that Dillon will be worse than Jones and Jones will continue to have most of the carries.

[YoHoChecko]

Do you think we re-sign Jones? Do you think Dillon will be anything more than a back up RB this year?

Don't see anything wrong with either of those points. It is more likely that Dillon will be worse than Jones and Jones will continue to have most of the carries.

The thing about RB is that it's not just "starter and backup" the way QB is or LT is. It's not like the starter gets all the snaps and carries and the backup gets none. It's more of a tiered roles positions. In a given year, you're going to have at least 2 players carry the ball 100+ times, and that's without any significant injuries. The year before we drafted that duo, the Packers had 5 different non-QBs with between 30 and 70 carries for the season.

If Dillon gets 100 carries this year, he wasn't a backup, he's a role player. And he's a completely different style of RB than Jones. Better/worse is a weird comparative word choice for them. The fact that they chose a back who so clearly represents a complementary skillset to Jones rather than a potential replacement for him says absolutely nothing about whether or not they will re-sign Jones. I doubt they will, but having a competent, complementary player on a rookie contract is not the reason for or against that re-signing decision. If anything, seems to make it unlikely that they re-sign Williams, unless they want a cheap veteran back-up and draft an explosive playmaker to replace Jones, I guess.

[bud fox]

Do you think we re-sign Jones? Do you think Dillon will be anything more than a back up RB this year?

Don't see anything wrong with either of those points. It is more likely that Dillon will be worse than Jones and Jones will continue to have most of the carries.

The thing about RB is that it's not just "starter and backup" the way QB is or LT is. It's not like the starter gets all the snaps and carries and the backup gets none. It's more of a tiered roles positions. In a given year, you're going to have at least 2 players carry the ball 100+ times, and that's without any significant injuries. The year before we drafted that duo, the Packers had 5 different non-QBs with between 30 and 70 carries for the season.

If Dillon gets 100 carries this year, he wasn't a backup, he's a role player. And he's a completely different style of RB than Jones. Better/worse is a weird comparative word choice for them. The fact that they chose a back who so clearly represents a complementary skillset to Jones rather than a potential replacement for him says absolutely nothing about whether or not they will re-sign Jones. I doubt they will, but having a competent, complementary player on a rookie contract is not the reason for or against that re-signing decision. If anything, seems to make it unlikely that they re-sign Williams, unless they want a cheap veteran back-up and draft an explosive playmaker to replace Jones, I guess.

The backup RB definitely has a more active playing role than a backup LT or QB. So he will be replacing Williams. Will need to average greater than 4.3 yards a carry at 100 carries.

He averaged 5.2 ypc at college - not great.

I guess we will see later in the year.

[Packfntk]

Do you think we re-sign Jones? Do you think Dillon will be anything more than a back up RB this year?

Don't see anything wrong with either of those points. It is more likely that Dillon will be worse than Jones and Jones will continue to have most of the carries.

In my mind AJD has already surpassed Jamaal. I would go out on a limb to say he touches the ball over 120 times his rookie year.

[bud fox]

Do you think we re-sign Jones? Do you think Dillon will be anything more than a back up RB this year?

Don't see anything wrong with either of those points. It is more likely that Dillon will be worse than Jones and Jones will continue to have most of the carries.

In my mind AJD has already surpassed Jamaal. I would go out on a limb to say he touches the ball over 120 times his rookie year.

Just because he is a second round pick? Or based on what he has shown at college?

Williams 4.3 yards a carry was .3 less than Jones.

[YoHoChecko]

Do you think we re-sign Jones? Do you think Dillon will be anything more than a back up RB this year?

Don't see anything wrong with either of those points. It is more likely that Dillon will be worse than Jones and Jones will continue to have most of the carries.

In my mind AJD has already surpassed Jamaal. I would go out on a limb to say he touches the ball over 120 times his rookie year.

I think Jamaal will have a role if only because he's a reliable, assignment-sure back-up who can pass protect. If Jones misses any time, especially, they're not going to rely on the rookie just because he's a more talented runner to be the whole shebang, I don't think.

[Packfntk]

Do you think we re-sign Jones? Do you think Dillon will be anything more than a back up RB this year?

Don't see anything wrong with either of those points. It is more likely that Dillon will be worse than Jones and Jones will continue to have most of the carries.

In my mind AJD has already surpassed Jamaal. I would go out on a limb to say he touches the ball over 120 times his rookie year.

Just because he is a second round pick? Or based on what he has shown at college?

Williams 4.3 yards a carry was .3 less than Jones.

Just a feeling. With the high investment, and his running style, I think he has success running again non-stacked boxes and gets early opportunity and runs with it.