Round 1 (26) - Jordan Love, QB Utah State

[dsr]

'Just not really feeling the strategy here, short-term or even long-. We'll see.

Here's the strategy. The strategy is that if a GM thinks that a QB is potentially a really good starter and perhaps even Hall of Fame, the GM drafts him. Thompson did it with Rodgers, and it would be hard to say he was wrong; though at the time it was very easy to say he was wrong and people did, loud and clear.

Same with Favre. It was very easy to say it was a waste of a first round pick, and people did say it. With hindsight, was Wolf right to make the trade? Most people would say so.

So with hindsight, is Love good enough? Who knows. Hindsight doesn't work this early in a man's career. But QBs are drafted in the first round because the GM thinks the draftee will be a good, perhaps great, perhaps HoF QB. That's the strategy.

We HAVE a HoF QB. He's not playing at that level, granted, but if we did not have full faith in a rebound, we should have just let him walk or traded him out. So why draft one if you are not going to enjoy the full longevity of HoF QB's career in the first place?

There is a such thing as too early, like the Pats spending a 2nd on Jimmy G while Brady still had more than 4 good years in the tank. Rodgers has way more arm than Brees and Brady ever did, and they kept going strong well, 41 and 41 respectively. Rodgers is 36; 4 more good years is a conservative estimate.

Quoting two QBs who reached 41 doesn't mean that expecting a QB to reach 40 is a conservative estimate. I'm sure we could list QBs who didn't play until 40. See Peyton Manning, for example. And I wouldn't give a cast iron guarantee that Rodgers can't get hurt.

You make a very strong case that the Rodgers pick was a waste and that either Favre should have been traded and Rodgers started from day 1, or that Rodgers should never have been picked in the first place. But with the benefit of hindsight, would you make that argument?

Each year there are on average 5 Hall of Fame players. If you think you have one, do you really care that you only got 10 of his best years? Is it a given that another QB as good as Love will be available to GB in the next draft, and the one after, and every time we might need one until we get him? Chicago pick ahead of us every year (nearly!) - why have they never picked a Hof, or great, or good, or even competent QB?

[bud fox]

It was a bad pick because of timing not because of Love. Hopefully he turns out.

I think the whole sit and watch philosophy is overplayed with respect to the benefits

Rodgers sat for 3 years and then in his first year playing the team we went 6-10 and Rodgers stats were

63.6 Completion

4,038 Yards

28 TDs

13 Ints

93.8 Rating

The next year he won a superbowl. I think it is much better to get on the field and obtain playing experience. We are going to waste Jordan Loves cheapest years having him sit which won't let us build out our team.

[YoHoChecko]

Rodgers sat for 3 years and then in his first year playing the team we went 6-10 and Rodgers stats were
63.6 Completion
4,038 Yards
28 TDs
13 Ints
93.8 Rating

The next year he won a superbowl. I think it is much better to get on the field and obtain playing experience. We are going to waste Jordan Loves cheapest years having him sit which won't let us build out our team.

Among ROOKIES, since the MERGER, that would be good for the 8th-best passer rating, 4th-highest passing yards since the merger, 13th best INT % in a season. (minimum 200 attempts)

You SURE sitting didn't help him? Sure seems like sitting amount to him playing as well as one of the ten best rookie QBs in the past 40 years

[bud fox]

Rodgers sat for 3 years and then in his first year playing the team we went 6-10 and Rodgers stats were
63.6 Completion
4,038 Yards
28 TDs
13 Ints
93.8 Rating

The next year he won a superbowl. I think it is much better to get on the field and obtain playing experience. We are going to waste Jordan Loves cheapest years having him sit which won't let us build out our team.

Among ROOKIES, since the MERGER, that would be good for the 8th-best passer rating, 4th-highest passing yards since the merger, 13th best INT % in a season. (minimum 200 attempts)

You SURE sitting didn't help him? Sure seems like sitting amount to him playing as well as one of the ten best rookie QBs in the past 40 years

After one season of playing

64.7

4,434

30

7

103.2

Superbowl Win and Superbowl MVP. Maybe Rodgers was always good. Game experience can not be matched. By your fourth year you will be a better player if you played the three previous years rather than sit.

[YoHoChecko]

Here are some guys who didn't play as rookies:
Drew Brees
Tom Brady
Philip Rivers
Aaron Rodgers
Patrick Mahomes

Here's one who started as a rookie:
Peyton Manning

Manning, one of the greatest of all time, had a season like this as a rookie:
16 games, 3-13-0
326/575 = 56.7%
3739 yards
26 TDs (4.5%)
28 INTs (4.9%)
71.2 passer rating
_______________________________

Basically all the current HoF-level QBing talents waited at least a year to start, and the one who didn't SUCKED as a starter. But I guess that's just a coincidence.

[NCF]

Superbowl Win and Superbowl MVP.

After TWO seasons of playing. 2008 (6-10) and 2009 (OT loss in Arizona).

[bud fox]

Here are some guys who didn't play as rookies:
Drew Brees
Tom Brady
Philip Rivers
Aaron Rodgers
Patrick Mahomes

Here's one who started as a rookie:
Peyton Manning

Manning, one of the greatest of all time, had a season like this as a rookie:
16 games, 3-13-0
326/575 = 56.7%
3739 yards
26 TDs (4.5%)
28 INTs (4.9%)
71.2 passer rating
_______________________________

Basically all the current HoF-level QBing talents waited at least a year to start, and the one who didn't SUCKED as a starter. But I guess that's just a coincidence.

A good qb is going to be good with time, however it is better to get them game experience quicker as they develop faster and are more valuable to the team. Manning went 13-3 his second year - improved stats.

If you are going to use your analysis you can't just look at the HOF players need to do it across the board.

Tell me out of your list how many regressed in there 2nd full year of play.

[salmar80]

While [mention]bud fox[/mention] is right that real game snaps are usually the best learning ground, but I still think it depends on the prospect. Some come out of college more pro-ready than others. Throw a QB who needs development to the wolves, and I doubt being overwhelmed, sucking and getting booed is a great learning experience.

This works for some, some could use a lesson or two before attempting, but both can become good swimmers:



Rodgers needed to overhaul some throwing mechanics + add strength and has said himself he benefited from time to work without having to start. His first preseasons and spot duty snaps in real games weren't exactly stellar. I remember the Pro-Favre and Fire TT -crowds being elated when AR suuuucked early on...

The scouts are in agreement Love has ample tools, but needs development. If he had been more pro-ready, he would've gone in top 10. I think he especially needs to work on reading zone coverages.

That said, if Love sits for 3+ year, then we will be wasting some of his cheap rookie years. It's certainly sub-optimal. But even recent history of SB winners does not support the theory that you need a QB on cheap rookie deal to win it all. If Love turns out to be a great one, I'll gladly suffer knowing we picked him too early than not at all.

You would probably need a great QB on cheap rookie deal in order to build the bestest short-term roster in this UFA era. If you're really into wanting to see an all-time great one- or two-year team, picking Love now is certainly a dream-crusher. I'm not into all-in moves at the expense of long-term success, but I can see the allure.

As for Love's character, [mention]YoHoChecko[/mention] , certainly doesn't look like a bad egg, but whether he's a face-of-a-franchise guy, dunno yet. I didn't see bad body language on tape even when the team around him sucked - even with bad drops, he looked to have an "onto next play" -attitude, not pointing fingers, yelling or pouting. But I'll have to admit cutups don't show all interactions, especially nothing on the sideline.

[British]

My guess is if he sits for 3 full seasons then that's likely because Rodgers is still playing at a high level. Which means Packers doing well.

If he's clearly ready to go by the end of year 2 (and the coaches will have a sense of that if he's tearing up practice and wowing on the scout team) then he'll probably be given the starting gig. Either way, it will likely figure itself out. Bottom line is the Packers will likely have good QB play for the next 4 years and maybe the next 15.

As for his character, one thing that struck me was that in all the post, and pre, draft interviews when asked about his 2019 stats drop off, he never blamed the fact he lost 9 of his 10 fellow starters, his WRs dropped a ton of balls and he went through a whole new coaching change. He took responsibility and just said he tried to force throws when he shouldn't have. That's to his credit.

[Packfntk]

My guess is if he sits for 3 full seasons then that's likely because Rodgers is still playing at a high level. Which means Packers doing well.

If he's clearly ready to go by the end of year 2 (and the coaches will have a sense of that if he's tearing up practice and wowing on the scout team) then he'll probably be given the starting gig. Either way, it will likely figure itself out. Bottom line is the Packers will likely have good QB play for the next 4 years and maybe the next 15.

As for his character, one thing that struck me was that in all the post, and pre, draft interviews when asked about his 2019 stats drop off, he never blamed the fact he lost 9 of his 10 fellow starters, his WRs dropped a ton of balls and he went through a whole new coaching change. He took responsibility and just said he tried to force throws when he shouldn't have. That's to his credit.

Great post. Thank you British. Especially like the bolded.

[BF004]

Does anyone have any insight into the dissonance between several scouts saying they had concerns about Love's personality or maturity not being QB-face-of-the-franchise kind of caliber... and the article 23 posted with his coaches and teammates talking up with work ethic and leadership?

I mean I know these sorts of things come out every year about dozens of people and there's often a degree of different opinions...

just wondering if anyone had better insights into some of those quotes?

From McGinn's series of scouts' takes...

AFC scout: “If he doesn’t go first round it’s because of character. He has the skill set to go first round. … It’s more stupid, immaturity &%$@.

NFC scout: “The body language was awful and the accuracy was worse. He didn’t look like he knew what he was doing or that he wanted to play. ... I don’t see the attitude.

NFC scout: “He’s a risk-reward guy. You question the makeup. He got arrested for weed. You don’t want the face of your franchise getting arrested for weed. … He’s soft-spoken and confident. Not great on the board. You know, good luck.”

AFC scout: “Don’t like him. Excellent athlete. Arm talent. Has never been coached and no supporting cast, but I worry about the intangibles. Ain’t my kind of guy.”

From the more recent article:

“Most of the other guys were all seniors or juniors, and they’re all hanging out at night watching the game video from that day. And Jordan’s kind of leading the whole group as far as running the clicker and being loud in that way.

When he came and started over me, just how we both did it, it was very professional. We were still friends. A lot of people that try to break us up are like, ‘Oh, Jordan, you’re the guy.’ He never saw it like that. Me and him never had those conversations, like ‘Oh, I’m starting over you and I’m younger.’ I think that shows a lot about him. … He did it with class and that’s why, to this day, we’re still good friends

Ron’quavion Tarver, Love’s No. 1 wide receiver on the 2018 team, recalls how Love and his mom treated him to dinner after a game and how, when Tarver needed a ride to a workout, Love provided one.

“If I was to say I had a best friend in Utah, it would be Jordan,” Tarver said. “And you could ask the other players, too. They would say the same thing. … I felt like I got drafted in the first round when Jordan got drafted.”

Said Utah State left tackle Alfred Edwards: “The thing about Jordan is he never put himself above any of us. He was just one of the guys, even with the NFL hype, really since 2018. He’s always been the same dude. … I feel like what makes the job easier is he’s a genuinely good guy. He’s a good teammate, too. You wanna block your butt off for him.”

Added former Utah State running back Gerold Bright: “He has a gravitational force that seems to attract everyone from white, black, purple, orange, different backgrounds. He can just attract anybody because of the way he carries himself. He’s always a guy that’s always smiling, his personality is full of energy, he’s a goofball, he’ll make you laugh, he’s approachable.”

I sorta feel like the character stuff is mostly older-school guys who are reacting to the (later dropped) weed charge? Is that too simplistic?

I feel like those comments are sparse and vague enough that one can likely find evidence in there to support their conclusion, on either end of the spectrum.

[Yoop]

Here are some guys who didn't play as rookies:
Drew Brees
Tom Brady
Philip Rivers
Aaron Rodgers
Patrick Mahomes

Here's one who started as a rookie:
Peyton Manning

Manning, one of the greatest of all time, had a season like this as a rookie:
16 games, 3-13-0
326/575 = 56.7%
3739 yards
26 TDs (4.5%)
28 INTs (4.9%)
71.2 passer rating
_______________________________

Basically all the current HoF-level QBing talents waited at least a year to start, and the one who didn't SUCKED as a starter. But I guess that's just a coincidence.

A good qb is going to be good with time, however it is better to get them game experience quicker as they develop faster and are more valuable to the team. Manning went 13-3 his second year - improved stats.

If you are going to use your analysis you can't just look at the HOF players need to do it across the board.

Tell me out of your list how many regressed in there 2nd full year of play.

bull &%$@ Bud, it takes time to un learn bad habits allowed to ingrain themselves in college, and then more time to learn better technical skills needed to succeed in the pro's, theres no time in college for a coach to do this stuff so they put up with these issues, in the pro's the tech issues are to big of a issue to allow, and if you start them as many have done hoping they can accomplish these changes as he plays, to often the bad habits and tech becomes even more ingrained, and eventually the QB bust out, to mention the very few that accomplish these make overs on the fly pales in comparison against those that didn't, and most that did remake successfully had the least of these issues to fix.

also you take a big chance of ruining any confidence a rookie may have when you ask them to do something before there ready to do it, thats why usually a coach wont do that unless he has no other choice, and why only the most ready to play rookies get to, and QB is the toughest position by far, why would any one rush that process, so stupid, you spend a huge resource to get one, then take a chance on just tossing that investment away by rushing him.

before a a guy can play himself to be better, he first needs to know the best ways to do that, not the limited versions he picked up along the path he took getting here.

[British]

What I find most interesting about the Love pick is:

a) Was he the Packers plan all along?
b) Or was he Plan B after the top WRs went off the board?

The Packers admitted they tried to trade up in the second for a WR but once the ones they liked were gone they stopped. I don't think i've seen Gute say he tried to get up in the 1st for a receiver?

For such a franchise altering move, it would have been quite a pick had they 'resorted' to him, just two picks after, let's say, Jefferson was their last WR target, went off the board.

But they can't admit that Love was their target all along. Would be too explosive.

Obviously you need to be flexible on draft night, you need contingency plans in case you're guy goes earlier than expected. But seems to me he was Plan A. The trade up, the pre-draft visit, the calls to Utah State coaches asking about his character and personality. All suggest the Packers were in from the start.

[Pugger]

'Just not really feeling the strategy here, short-term or even long-. We'll see.

Here's the strategy. The strategy is that if a GM thinks that a QB is potentially a really good starter and perhaps even Hall of Fame, the GM drafts him. Thompson did it with Rodgers, and it would be hard to say he was wrong; though at the time it was very easy to say he was wrong and people did, loud and clear.

Same with Favre. It was very easy to say it was a waste of a first round pick, and people did say it. With hindsight, was Wolf right to make the trade? Most people would say so.

So with hindsight, is Love good enough? Who knows. Hindsight doesn't work this early in a man's career. But QBs are drafted in the first round because the GM thinks the draftee will be a good, perhaps great, perhaps HoF QB. That's the strategy.

We HAD a HOF QB back in 2005 too.

[Yoop]

What I find most interesting about the Love pick is:

a) Was he the Packers plan all along?
b) Or was he Plan B after the top WRs went off the board?

The Packers admitted they tried to trade up in the second for a WR but once the ones they liked were gone they stopped. I don't think i've seen Gute say he tried to get up in the 1st for a receiver?

For such a franchise altering move, it would have been quite a pick had they 'resorted' to him, just two picks after, let's say, Jefferson was their last WR target, went off the board.

But they can't admit that Love was their target all along. Would be too explosive.

Obviously you need to be flexible on draft night, you need contingency plans in case you're guy goes earlier than expected. But seems to me he was Plan A. The trade up, the pre-draft visit, the calls to Utah State coaches asking about his character and personality. All suggest the Packers were in from the start.

according to Guty that was not the case, he said that once the top 4 wr( I think it was 4 ) where gone that Love had there highest draft grade, thats if we can believe him, I do because I think we'd have heard more rumble from Rodgers.

also Guty had to know there was a very good chance those 4 WR would be gone, and if Love in fact was high on there draft boards they'd want a close up look, not surprising since your spending such a high pick.

I'am still not sure what to think about the pick though.

[salmar80]

What I find most interesting about the Love pick is:

a) Was he the Packers plan all along?
b) Or was he Plan B after the top WRs went off the board?

The Packers admitted they tried to trade up in the second for a WR but once the ones they liked were gone they stopped. I don't think i've seen Gute say he tried to get up in the 1st for a receiver?

For such a franchise altering move, it would have been quite a pick had they 'resorted' to him, just two picks after, let's say, Jefferson was their last WR target, went off the board.

But they can't admit that Love was their target all along. Would be too explosive.

Obviously you need to be flexible on draft night, you need contingency plans in case you're guy goes earlier than expected. But seems to me he was Plan A. The trade up, the pre-draft visit, the calls to Utah State coaches asking about his character and personality. All suggest the Packers were in from the start.

according to Guty that was not the case, he said that once the top 4 wr( I think it was 4 ) where gone that Love had there highest draft grade, thats if we can believe him, I do because I think we'd have heard more rumble from Rodgers.

also Guty had to know there was a very good chance those 4 WR would be gone, and if Love in fact was high on there draft boards they'd want a close up look, not surprising since your spending such a high pick.

I'am still not sure what to think about the pick though.

To get a WR (Aiyuk), it would've likely taken our 3rd rounder to trade up enough in the 1st round. Spending two such high picks feels like a lot for our projected WR2 and the 6th WR taken...

The 49ers spent a 4th and 5th rounder to jump from 31st to 25 to get Aiyuk, last of 1st round WRs, and that was with the Vikings who probably weren't inclined to help GB out. To move to 23rd or 24th, traditional trade value chart would've commanded us giving up the 3rd rounder, and getting maybe a late-rounder back.

To get Reagor or Jefferson, that would've likely require packaging our 1st and 2nd rounders...

I doubt Love was the plan all along, but those WRs sure flew off the board. The bigger surprise in our situation was that we weren't interested in Patrick Queen.

[British]

What I find most interesting about the Love pick is:

a) Was he the Packers plan all along?
b) Or was he Plan B after the top WRs went off the board?

The Packers admitted they tried to trade up in the second for a WR but once the ones they liked were gone they stopped. I don't think i've seen Gute say he tried to get up in the 1st for a receiver?

For such a franchise altering move, it would have been quite a pick had they 'resorted' to him, just two picks after, let's say, Jefferson was their last WR target, went off the board.

But they can't admit that Love was their target all along. Would be too explosive.

Obviously you need to be flexible on draft night, you need contingency plans in case you're guy goes earlier than expected. But seems to me he was Plan A. The trade up, the pre-draft visit, the calls to Utah State coaches asking about his character and personality. All suggest the Packers were in from the start.

according to Guty that was not the case, he said that once the top 4 wr( I think it was 4 ) where gone that Love had there highest draft grade, thats if we can believe him, I do because I think we'd have heard more rumble from Rodgers.

also Guty had to know there was a very good chance those 4 WR would be gone, and if Love in fact was high on there draft boards they'd want a close up look, not surprising since your spending such a high pick.

I'am still not sure what to think about the pick though.

How would Rodgers know what the plan was? He was clearly not in the loop with the Love pick.

[Yoop]

What I find most interesting about the Love pick is:

a) Was he the Packers plan all along?
b) Or was he Plan B after the top WRs went off the board?

The Packers admitted they tried to trade up in the second for a WR but once the ones they liked were gone they stopped. I don't think i've seen Gute say he tried to get up in the 1st for a receiver?

For such a franchise altering move, it would have been quite a pick had they 'resorted' to him, just two picks after, let's say, Jefferson was their last WR target, went off the board.

But they can't admit that Love was their target all along. Would be too explosive.

Obviously you need to be flexible on draft night, you need contingency plans in case you're guy goes earlier than expected. But seems to me he was Plan A. The trade up, the pre-draft visit, the calls to Utah State coaches asking about his character and personality. All suggest the Packers were in from the start.

according to Guty that was not the case, he said that once the top 4 wr( I think it was 4 ) where gone that Love had there highest draft grade, thats if we can believe him, I do because I think we'd have heard more rumble from Rodgers.

also Guty had to know there was a very good chance those 4 WR would be gone, and if Love in fact was high on there draft boards they'd want a close up look, not surprising since your spending such a high pick.

I'am still not sure what to think about the pick though.

How would Rodgers know what the plan was? He was clearly not in the loop with the Love pick.

NO GM has one contingency plan, would you? I wouldn't, if my 1st target player is picked I drop to the next and so forth, could be they liked 2 of the top 6 receivers that went prior to our move up for Love, and if you have a 36 yr old QB on what appears to be his last contract, and one is expected to be available at or near your pick, well then ya check him out and slot him in with your top target players, I don't know why your hell bent on making this more then it is based of nothing but a inkling

[British]

according to Guty that was not the case, he said that once the top 4 wr( I think it was 4 ) where gone that Love had there highest draft grade, thats if we can believe him, I do because I think we'd have heard more rumble from Rodgers.

also Guty had to know there was a very good chance those 4 WR would be gone, and if Love in fact was high on there draft boards they'd want a close up look, not surprising since your spending such a high pick.

I'am still not sure what to think about the pick though.

How would Rodgers know what the plan was? He was clearly not in the loop with the Love pick.

NO GM has one contingency plan, would you? I wouldn't, if my 1st target player is picked I drop to the next and so forth, could be they liked 2 of the top 6 receivers that went prior to our move up for Love, and if you have a 36 yr old QB on what appears to be his last contract, and one is expected to be available at or near your pick, well then ya check him out and slot him in with your top target players, I don't know why your hell bent on making this more then it is based of nothing but a inkling

Just having a conversation. We likely have nothing but this to talk about for many months.

I agree, Gute no doubt had a few options he was happy with, but it feels like picking Love was likely high on the list, maybe option 1 or 2.

You say though that you don't think so because there would have been more rumbling from Rodgers. But how would he know what Gute's plans were?

[YoHoChecko]

I'll put forth some sort of hypothetical for what I think, basically, happened here.

Let's say the Packers draft board looked something like this

Tier One
Chase Young
Joe Burrow
Tua

Tier Two
Derrick Brown
Javon Kinlaw
Jerry Jeudy
CeeDee Lamb
Henry Ruggs
Isaiah Simmons
Jeff Okudah
Andrew Thomas
Tristan Wirfs

Tier Three
Mekhi Becton
Justin Herbert
Jordan Love
CJ Henderson
Jedrick Wills

Tier Four
K'Lavon Chaisson
Antonio Jackson
Kenneth Murray
Justin Jefferson
Jalen Reagor
Brandon Ayiuk
Patrick Queen

Tier Five - Second Round Grades
AJ Terrell
Cesar Ruiz
Jordan Brooks
Isaiah Wilson
Noah Igbinoghene
Jeff Gladney
Michael Pittman, Jr
Kyle Duggar

etc. etc.

I think there's a good chance that the Packers were ready to take a needed position--WR--even though there was a player from a whole tier up (QB, Jordan Love). But when the WRs in that tier came off the board, the Packers were sitting at 30 with only TWO players left with first round grades. Queen, Tier 4; and Love, Tier 3. They moved up because they didn't think either guy would last until 30 and the trade-back options weren't looking good.

So rather than picking a player with a Round Two grade in the first round, they traded up. At that point, they had their pick of two players--one who fit a need, and one who doesn't fit an immediate need but is a top-15 player on their board at the most important position on the field. A guy who is a full tier ahead of Queen. And they trusted the board and went with Love.

I genuinely believe that something like this is what happened. The board fell very poorly for us. I, personally, would maybe have still taken Queen in that position--a first round grade, a need position, 2nd-best player left on the board. But this is how I see tjhings, generally and hypothetically