For one, we HAVE to win the Super Bowl this year. If we don't win the Super Bowl, everything about what I want to happen this offseason is different.
Secondly, the coaching carousel will have a lot to say about all of this.
Third, we don't yet know if Rodgers WANTS to return. We won't know until after the season. Until then, we're all guessing.
This mock offseason is based on a future in which Rodgers sticks to his pre-season intentions and makes this his last season. He demands a trade. For the purposes of this exercise, this is the least interesting aspect to discuss. We have multiple threads dedicated to whether or not he stays or goes. In this, he is going, and there's nothing the team can do about it, so let's just leave that alone.
Now I expect some harsh pushback on WHERE I have him going, but I'll explain that. I know Rodgers will have a strong say in where he ends up, but I am operating less from a "where would Rodgers go and then try to make it work" rubric and more from a "who would have the ammunition and incentive to go get him, and could Rodgers be sold on it" perspective.
This is going to be a LOONNNG post because there's so much to hypothetically play out. I was going to wait. I really was. But since this week is an exhibition game and next week is a bye, the conversation around the board has really gravitated toward the future, and so my pet project seems ready to be unveiled.
So let's start with
The Rest of the Season
Draft order
ESPN's FPI does a projected draft order based on simulations of the rest of the season. Here's what they have right now:
Coaching Carousel1. Jacksonville Jaguars (Average draft position: 1.2)
2. Detroit Lions (Average draft position: 1.8)
3. Houston Texans (Average draft position: 3.4)
4. New York Jets (Average draft position: 3.8)
5. New York Giants (Average draft position: 5.2)
6. Carolina Panthers (Average draft position: 5.6)
7. New York Jets (via SEA, Average draft position: 8.1)
8. New York Giants (via CHI, Average draft position: 8.3)
9. Atlanta Falcons (Average draft position: 9.8)
10. Washington Football Team (Average draft position: 9.8)
11. Denver Broncos (Average draft position: 10.3)
12. Minnesota Vikings (Average draft position: 12.1)
13. Cleveland Browns (Average draft position: 12.5)
14. Philadelphia Eagles (via MIA, Average draft position: 13.6)
15. Pittsburgh Steelers (Average draft position: 16.5)
16. Baltimore Ravens (Average draft position: 17.0)
17. New Orleans Saints (Average draft position: 17.6)
18. Las Vegas Raiders (Average draft position: 18.7)
19. Miami Dolphins (via SF, Average draft position: 19.9)
20. Los Angeles Chargers (Average draft position: 20.6)
21. Philadelphia Eagles (Average draft position: 20.9)
22. Philadelphia Eagles (via IND, Average draft position: 21.7)
23. Cincinnati Bengals (Average draft position: 24.3)
24. New England Patriots (Average draft position: 24.6)
25. Arizona Cardinals (Average draft position: 25.6)
26. Dallas Cowboys (Average draft position: 26.3)
27. Buffalo Bills (Average draft position: 26.9)
28. Detroit Lions (LAR, Average draft position: 27.2)
29. Kansas City Chiefs (Average draft position: 27.5)
30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Average draft position: 28.2)
31. Tennessee Titans (Average draft position: 27.8)
32. Green Bay Packers (Average draft position: 30.0)
In this reality, the following changes take place--more changes take place, but these are the relevant ones
- The Browns fire OC Alex Van Pelt and promote Bill Callahan from within
- The Seahawks fire OC Shane Waldron
- The Giants retain HC Joe Judge, but hire our own Stenovich to their vacant OC position
- The Giants hire Alex Van Pelt as passing game coordinator
- The Giants hire former Sean McVey/WFT assistant Shane Waldron to their offensive staff
- The Packers promote OL assistant Butkus to fill Steno's role and fortunately retain their remaining offensive staff
- The Packers fire Mo Drayton (no relevance, but I just wanted to throw it in for good measure)
The Offseason I: Free Agency/Trades
The Rodgers Trade
Let's just get right to it. This is why we're here.
So ok, the Giants are entering year three under Joe Judge and David Gettleman together. Gettleman actually might be fired right now, in which case, his successor wants to put his own stamp on the team. But if he isn't fired, both the GM and coach know they need to win in year 3 or be fired. Like they HAVE to win. The past two years have seen big free agent investments, but nothing has come together due to injuries and, well, a bad QB pick. Daniel Jones may yet develop into a starting QB, but this kid isn't the answer. If the Giants want to win now, they NEED a QB who will turn the fate of the franchise around. They have the proper motivation.
Now, from Rodgers' perspective, New York doesn't seem ideal; as the general consensus was he's a west coast guy looking to get closer to the west coast. But the New York media market is a DRAW, both for him and for his fiancee. She's in NYC all the time for work, anyway. He's in a city with two major airports and direct flights, rather than Green Bay. This works for them.
But what about on the field? Well, first, we know that hiring Steno to implement this offensive scheme and get the most from their OL is a good start. We also know that he LOVES Alex Van Pelt. With Steno, Van Pelt, and Waldron on the staff, a blend of what Van Pelt knows of Rodgers' preferences and what Steno knows of the running scheme and what Waldron knows of this passing scheme, they can create the sort of offense around Rodgers that he has had in Green Bay, schematically.
The Giants don't have a ton of cap space because they have terrrible deals on the books. I won't go through all the details, but they can clear $30 million with 3 cuts and a couple extensions, so they will, plus a touch more. That allows the Giants to bring in Rodgers, give him a big 4-6 year deal, and have some money to throw at low-dollar familiars--Lucas Patrick is a free agent and knows the scheme; Cobb will have been cut (more on that in a minute).
So the Giants come out with an offense featuring Rodgers at QB, Saquan at RB, Golladay, Shepherd, Cobb, and Kadarius Toney at WR; and an OL featuring high draft picks Andrew Thomas and Will Hernandez, Billy Price at C, developmental OT prospect Matt Peart at RT and wither Lucas Patrick or an incumbent at RG.
The defense is coordinated by Patrick Graham, former Packers LB coach under Pettine and a very, very bright mind--ivy league if I recall correctly. He came to us from the Patriots, and left us to join Flores in Miami before getting the DC gig in New York. This version of the Giants has familiarity and weapons enough to get Rodgers' sign-off, and their willingness to bring in coaches who will appeal specifically to Rodgers, bring in players who Rodgers knows, etc... this is the level of involvement he's always wanted.
But we haven't gotten to the reason the Giants are the Rodgers sweepstakes winners yet, and for that, we scroll back up to the draft order, in which they hold the #5 and #8 picks in the first round. The trade compensation would be as follows:
- Pick 5
- Pick 8
- Pick 69 (3rd round)
- 2023 second round pick
But where does that leave the team's roster?
The Packers' Cap Moves
The Packers are about $40 million over the projected 2022 salary cap. Rodgers must be on the roster at the start of the new league year to trade him, so that space must be cleared without Rodgers. Here's how it works:
- Extend Preston Smith to a long-term deal; savings: $10 million
- Sign Jaire Alexander to a long-term deal, savings: $8 million
- Extend Adrian Amos through the life of his void years (3 new years), savings: $4.0 million
- Convert Bakhtiari's roster bonus to a signing bonus; savings: $6.4 million
- Convert Kenny Clark's roster bonus to a signing bonus; savings: $4.1 million
- Attempt to trade, or release, Za'Darius Smith; savings: $15.75 million
- Release Randall Cobb; savings: $6.8 million
- Release Dean Lowry; savings: $3.9 million
- Release Mason Crosby; savings: $2.4 million
- Extend Davante Adams to a long-term deal making him the league's highest-paid WR but with a suppressed year one cap value of $14 million
So we're under the cap. Adams is in the fold long-term. Rodgers is a New York Football Giant. And the Packers have a bunch of picks for...
The Draft
First, one more trade.
We're sitting in the top 5, but there isn't a can't miss prospect there that we love with good value. The top two pass rushers will be off the board, so we look to maximize our value by trading with the Philadelphia Eagles. Eager to grab unicorn safety Kyle Hamilton, the Eagles offer us picks 14, 51, and a 2023 1st round pick to jump up to pick 5.
So now we're looking at picks 8, 14, 32, 51, 64, 69, and 96 on the first two days of the draft. I put the word "absurdist" right in the title, you guys. You had to expect something like this from me. So what am I looking to accomplish?
Team Needs
Having lost Za'Darius, we'll need a pass rusher.
Having cut Cobb and been unable to retain any free agent WRs (except RFA Lazard), we'll need a new crop of weapons
Having released Lowry, we'll need DL
As Chandon Sullivan is our weak spot in the secondary, we'll look for nickel/star help
Even though we kept Campbell, the rest of the LB room is garbage, so we'll want reinforcements inside
So let's get to it
The Packers Draft
Picks 8 and 14:
Georgia ILB Nakobe Dean and Alabama WR Jameson Williams
I grouped them together because if Williams is the #1 WR he'll be gone by 14, but if he's the #2 WR he'll be there at 14. Dean I've seen anywhere from 8 to 20. But let's look at what we have here. Dean is a true alpha dog ILB. A leader, the voice, the spirit, the passion of the Georgia defense, and able to do anything--run defense, pass coverage, blitzing. He's got the instincts and the speed we're missing next to Campbell and is a day one, instant upgrade over Barnes. Williams is an explosive deep threat who also does the dirty work on special teams (like coverage units, not just some return ability). He's 6'2" and blazes, so he instantly replaces MVS as the deep threat and #2 WR. If we want an explosive deep threat without sacrificing size, and if we want them ready to play, not a slow development (like MVS was), then it has to be this guy and it has to be early. So that's who we got. So far we've upgraded over one existing weak spot on the roster, and replaced (with a likely upgrade) a potentially costly departure.
Pick 32
Alabama DT Phidrian Mathis
This guy is 6'4" 320ish, and billed as a sort of run stopping nose, type, but he has double-digit sacks this year for Alabama. He collapses the pocket. Unlike most big guy DTs whose pass defense is useless until year 3 or so, he arrives ready to fill mean Dean's shoes as a lengthy, stout, pocket collapser. He also runs with a very high motor, which is rare for men of this size. I think he'll complement Clark and Slaton quite well, and while Lowry has played well for us this year, I'd view Mathis as a likely upgrade by year 2, if not right away.
Pick 51
Houston EDGE Logan Hall
At 6'6" 275 pounds, we have another jumbo pass rusher. Hall would be expected to try to fill in the shoes of Za'Darius, as an athletic EDGE who can move inside and do interior rushing. Obviously, coming from Houston to the NFL and being a rookie, he's not going to be a major impact in year one, but I mean his scouting reports are glowing. He has the tools to fit us perfectly. He's ranked in the 50s by The Draft Network, McShay's Scouts Inc, and Drafttek. Here's a quote from the Draft Network's scouting report.
Pick 64Logan Hall is an ascending talent that combined mental and technical growth in 2021 to produce his best season and vastly improve his overall valuation. Houston plays him all across the defensive line, giving him plenty of chances to play on the edge and interior as both a run defender and pass rusher. Hall features a long, stocky, and well-proportioned frame that is engineered to play defensive line in the NFL. He is an explosive athlete that plays with a motor that is always fully cranked.
Purdue WR David Bell
This guy might rise, but might not. Reminds me a little of Brian Edwards' scouting reports when coming out, but he's got a little more "it factor" to him. He's 6'2" 205 and a route runner who routinely separates. He'll probably run in the low 4.5s, but is exactly the kind of body and skillset that we so often see emerge from Day Two of the draft to an elite player like Adams or Michael Thomas. Drafttek puts him in the first round. No one else has him top 60. But every write-up and podcast mentions him as a guy that is underrated, under-the-radar, and might outplay his draft position; guys like that often rise up the boards late in the process, but maybe not if they don't show any explosive 40 times or something.
Pick 69
Houston CB Marcus Jones
Look, I know drafting a 5'8" CB seems odd for us. But we're not drafting a CB. We're drafting the best return man in college football over the past two years. That he may have a legit NFL future in the slot is honestly just a bonus at this point. We have to get serious about special teams moving forward.
Pick 96
Cincinnati WR Alec Pierce
Yup. A WR in each of the first three rounds. Pierce is another bigger body, at 6'3" 217. He's one of my favorites, honestly. Maybe he's Van Jefferson. Maybe he's just Jake Kumerow. But maybe he's Cooper Kupp. He's got a fascinating athletic history--volleyball, linebacker, family members who play. He's a dirty work guy, BUT ALSO their top WR and a clean separator. One of those guys whose athletic traits may not indicate he's a great separator, but his route running and instincts are clear. He's absolutely the kind of guy who can take on the Lazard role as the best run blocking WR on the team while improving our speed and receiving ability from that role. I wouldn't be at all surprised if he outshines the guys drafted ahead of him. His draft rankings range from 75ish to 120ish, so this is a realistic projection for now.
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Let's take a timeout and review days 1 and 2 of the draft. I have the Packers making 7 picks. Three WRs--ensuring that Love has a consistent stable of options and weapons to work with alongside Adams for the next 3-4 years. I've also added to the defensive at every level: the DL, the EDGE, the LBs, and the secondary, sorta (I really do think Jones could be a nickelback, but I'm not of the mind that he'd supplant Sullivan as a rookie or anything). We've worked to offset the losses of MVS with Jameson Williams, of Lowry with Mathis, and upgrade our WR room with Bell and Pierce instead of Cobb and EQ and LB room with a full on stud ILB. We still have work to do at nickel, we need to add some depth, and we want a body at TE because Tonyan's gone (but Big Dog, Deguara, Daffney, and Tyler Davis are not). Let's go.
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Pick 134
Oregon Safety Verone McKinley III
I'm confused about his draft stock. I felt like he'd be a 3rd round type, but most places I'm looking have him down here; often that means no one is maintaining and updating the rankings outside the top 50 or 100 and the guy ends up "rising" big time when big boards are updated in February and March, but we'll see. Anyway, this guy is a baller, and he fills double duty. I'm growing a little concerned about Savage, and McKinley provides a developmental backup plan. But in the mean time, he has experience in Oregon lining up in the slot, and might be ideally suited for such duties here.
Pick 138 (compensatory for Linsley)
Wyoming LB Chad Muma
A couple years ago, Logan Wilson came out of Wyoming and was one of those guys everyone says is going to be pretty good, and who tests just fine, but who just doesn't stand out and comes from a small school and slips. People were right on Logan Wilson, who is a 3rd round pick having a successful NFL career. Muma is coming from the same school and getting the same buzz. He's certainly not a bust. He'll at least be a guy in the room and on STs. He's got the right skillset and demeanor to give him that high floor. Perfect for a #2 ILB of the future once Campbell moves on and Dean is our centerpiece.
Pick 173
An Offensive Tackle
Is this cheating? Just picking a position? Absolutely it is. But it's so tough to get a handle on who is where in the tackle ratings. I had a guy slotted in here based on Scouts Inc's ratings only to see him listed as a late second rounder at Drafttek and a 3rd-4th rounder at The Draft Network. It's not like I don't have ideas. George Moore at Oregon is a steady RT/G with good height and weight (6'5" 325) and a ton of experience, but he's 25 and has a ceiling. Cordell Volson from North Dakota St is classic Packers--an OL who can line up anywhere, and has, but played a lot of LT for a small school. Kellen Deitch from Arizona St is one of those mid-late round OL that PFF swears is really effective. There will be options here, and we don't need a starter on the OL for 2 years, anyway.
Pick 210
Pittsburgh CB Damarri Mathis
Classic Pittsburgh CB is tough and well coached and physical. He played a ton of quarters and thus was left on islands deep outside and managed to hold up, even though he doesn't appear to have great straight-line speed. A move inside to the nickel will serve his limitations well, while making the most of his nice compact, stout frame (5'11" 200 pounds). There are a lot of potential nickel guys I like, but most will likely go around the 3rd round when I was focused on a punt returner and our third 6'2"+ WR of the draft, so we had to wait for a hidden gem.
Pick 250
Virginia TE Jelani Woods
An absolute draft stock mystery. He's not even on some boards. He's as high as the 5th round in one spot. But he's generally in the 7th/priority free agent land for... some reason. Massive dude, 6'7" 270. He's a bit of a one-year wonder. Ok, a lot of one. He did nothing at Oklahoma St, transferred to Virginia and was an impact player in the passing game. Despite his size, his blocking still needs a lot of refinement. So, a year on the PS serving under Big Dog will be perfect for him.
So here's what we accomplished with the draft in context of our current roster: And here is what the top of our roster looks like as a result of alllll of these moves (I say top because I didn't bother making roster cut decisions for the bottom 10-15 people just to show a general idea)
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is a totally unrealistic, but realistic, absurd but practical, look at making over our roster in the wake of cap trouble and Aaron Rodgers wanting out.
I should also point out the CYA part of this plan. If Love stinks as a starter, here in 2022 a year of no sure fire QBs in the draft, the Packers, thanks to my trades, would go into 2023 draft with 2 firsts and 2 seconds, to be able to work the board to get one of what should be a great QB class that year. And since we just drafted, ummm, 13 rookies? We can afford to trade some picks next year and have a bit of a lapse in incoming youth for a season. Again, if we need to.