We will know well ahead of the draft.German_Panzer wrote: ↑14 Jan 2022 11:08It is very simple: If Aaron is not willing to cut his demands to provide leverage to hold/acquire important players then he has to go. The only question then will remain how do it. Rodgers will only stay under a discount extension if he likes it in GB or wants to have a legacy as the dude who stayed loyal in times where everyone didn‘t. In the summer we will have a clearer picture.
Rodgers wants out
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He doesn't have to take a hometown discount, he just should. Give me a few hours with him, I'll convince him. If it's about winning, the best thing he could do is take a lower salary to allow for Green Bay to keep as many pieces around him as possible. If he cares about the money, I would propose that taking a lower salary actually makes him more money as well. Favre left on bad terms with the Packers. Time heals, but how much in local endorsements and merchandise did he lose over that decade? If I'm AR's confidant I tell him that he makes the grand gesture of playing for a reasonable contract and goes out a hero and hopefully with a few more rings.YoHoChecko wrote: ↑13 Jan 2022 10:30I am still truly baffled by the amount of talk about Rodgers taking some sort of hometown discount.
Like I can't even begin to consider that being on the table. That's just not going to happen. If Rodgers stays, it will be on a gigantic extension that uses accounting tricks to pump up the reported value and still make him the highest paid player in the league by some standard--be it new money/new years, be it guaranteed money in the first 3 years, be it cash paid over 3-years, be it cap value over 5 years. Whatever it is. Rodgers will be the top of the heap by some easily-reportable measure.
All talk of hometown discount is just a hope and a dream. It's based on nothing, nothing at all, aside from "maybe Rodgers' priorities have changed as he gets older" and that line means literally, over the past 7 months. Because his priorities were pretty clear before that. Not that I think this dispute is ABOUT money--it's not. But it can't be resolved without money.
Imagine Rodgers spending a full year talking about how he doesn't feel appreciated and he doesn't think the team values him the way he believes he should be valued, and you approach him with a lowball extension offer? Come on... He'd walk out faster than your friend at dinner who "left his wallet in the car"
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How is that more true now than it has been the previous decade?Madcity_matt wrote: ↑14 Jan 2022 11:39If it's about winning, the best thing he could do is take a lower salary to allow for Green Bay to keep as many pieces around him as possible.
That has always been true and it has never been Rodgers.
You guys are cute.
I've been following along with this conversation and, in particular, this insistence of "Rodgers won't take a discount" stance.YoHoChecko wrote: ↑14 Jan 2022 09:19You say you get it, but I don’t think you do. That something has to give and that he can’t have it both ways are EXACTLY why people are saying Rodgers is likely gone. This is why people say it makes no sense.packman114 wrote: ↑14 Jan 2022 07:20YoHo we all get it. But what we also understand is a guy who wants "his guys" in order to make championship runs every year, can no longer have it both ways. My point is that Rodgers is in tune with every aspect of this game and he knows that if we pay him $30+ million/yr the team will be him and very little else. So the decision is truly his. If he wants to finish his career in Green Bay and stay with "his guys" he has to renegotiate to a lesser salary. If he wants a salary commensurate to his "status" then Gutey's decision is very easy. No one is saying he WILL take the discount, we are saying that if he is concerned about winning more Super Bowls here in Green Bay he HAS to take a discount. I prefer to see that as option he may want to do. You think it is not an option he would consider.
You guys keep saying “if he wants to win championships,” but show me anywhere in anything he said last offseason and throughout his incredibly candid presses that indicates his issues with the Packers have/had anything to do with winning versus they had to do with being shown personal respect and deference. It was 100% about himself and his people. Show me anything in the rumors about where he wants to play that indicate it’s more about winning than being closer to California and closer to his fiancé.
There is just zero evidence anywhere in the record that ever indicates Rodgers is willing or interested in self sacrifice for a greater team goal. It’s never happened. It’s never been discussed in public. It isn’t evident in any of his complaints or statements about the team and his grievances.
Rodgers wants to go somewhere that HE is appreciated and valued commensurate with his standing in the league and where the organization treats its players as people, not as expendable parts. One COULD read between the lines to point out that both of those things are DETRIMENTS to winning, and those are the things he chose to prioritize.
Rodgers cares about winning because he is competitive as heck and because it enhances his personal legacy. But he, clearly, based on his own statements, his own grievances, his openly stated priorities, cares more about his day to day happiness. Which is totally fine. It just is an absolute fantasy y’all are weaving about the possibilities in front of us.
When I see all these people explain that yeah they want Rodgers to stay, but they recognize the financial realities, instead of grappling with the truth, that they’re either going to have to blood bath the roster or lose Rodgers, you come up with a third alternative that doesn’t exist in reality.
A best case scenario that is entirely unrealistic and inconsistent with all observed empirical evidence is the literal definition of “fantasy.” Hope all you want, but keep those expectations based in what’s real
I get it. I think everybody gets it despite this last post insisting the previous poster didn't get it. I also think you may be missing something.
What is fandom all about? It's about hope and glory and all things fans hope a season can be. It's in our DNA as fans to hope for greater outcomes than what's reasonably expected. Hell, look no further than [mention]Raptorman[/mention] to get an idea of what I really mean.
Most of us approach the Rodgers dilemma with a definitive grasp of reality but, true to nature, are reasonably hopeful and, to a point, excited for what could possibly happen were Rodgers to have a sudden change of priorities.
You're definitely a logical, analytic type personality, or so it would seem. You're also a fan, obviously, with your own hopes but you've consistently shown your analytical side trumps your fanhood side as evidenced by your consistent measured responses. Nothing wrong with that. I definitely get your perspective and your initial insistence on not pinning hopes to Rodgers suddenly becoming what he has shown not to be. I just don't get the need to continually harp on the hopeful fan perspective that many here hold.
It does no harm to look upon Rodgers and hope he does right by the team and fan base, even if it is a bit farfetched. Even so, there will be plenty of time to bemoan his exodus for greener financial pastures when the time comes, if it comes. I mean, why embrace the storm before it's even arrived?
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It isn't that Yoho is saying Rodgers WON'T take a discount to come back. He is saying NOTHING Rodgers has said or done has indicated that he would be willing to do so.
I think that is it, in a nutshell.
I think that is it, in a nutshell.
Palmy - "Very few have the ability to truly excel regardless of system. For many the system is the difference between being just a guy or an NFL starter. Fact is, everyone is talented at this level."
Nah, I think from what I've read [mention]YoHoChecko[/mention] is saying Rodgers definitely WILL NOT take a discount. He's even placed a bet on it.
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What are we talking here, water-boarding? Probably best to avoid things like thumbscrews because he kinda needs to be able to grip the ball.
“We didn’t lose the game; we just ran out of time.”
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What say you [mention]YoHoChecko[/mention]?
Palmy - "Very few have the ability to truly excel regardless of system. For many the system is the difference between being just a guy or an NFL starter. Fact is, everyone is talented at this level."
What does cute mean? here you are acting like some psychic laughing at people because they actually do think that people can change, circumstance change, people adjust to change all the time, who the hell knows what Rodgers will do, like Murphy said he's a complicated person.YoHoChecko wrote: ↑14 Jan 2022 11:51How is that more true now than it has been the previous decade?Madcity_matt wrote: ↑14 Jan 2022 11:39If it's about winning, the best thing he could do is take a lower salary to allow for Green Bay to keep as many pieces around him as possible.
That has always been true and it has never been Rodgers.
You guys are cute.
he could decide to do as I said, respect the situation he has with Lafluer, realize that Guty accepted his part of what caused the division a year ago, and come to terms with what seems obvious to me, that staying here and making his extension work is his best course of action.
theres a list here of expensive players that havn't played most of this season, and without them we are 13-4, so keeping Rodgers, and losing some of them and even a few more is doable, this idea that we'll become a despot team if we keep Rodgers doesn't even make sense, in fact I bet Guty and Murphy will do everything they can to keep him.
I know I said this team is built now to compete after Rodgers departs, but it still needs a quality field general, theres more to being a QB then just throwing the ball.
Part of me would like to see Rodgers move on, I'am tired of people blaming him for everything that goes wrong on Sunday, I know that with Rodgers our chances of winning and competing are high no matter who is on this team, without him, doesn't matter how loaded this roster is, the odds are far worse, thats the reality I see.
I nearly coughed up a lung when I read that postCrazylegs Starks wrote: ↑14 Jan 2022 12:34What are we talking here, water-boarding? Probably best to avoid things like thumbscrews because he kinda needs to be able to grip the ball.
like give me 5 minutes with that pro athlete thats in great shape, I'll straighten him out
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APB is right. I am saying he will not. And as all things involving the future, it is a prediction, and thus cannot be ironclad. But as all things future-related are the author's own opinions, I don't specify each time with "in my opinion, he will not" because "in my opinion" is assumed. But yes, I am saying it will not happen.
As for the rest, I absolutely LOVE ABP's post in response to mine. It is a beautiful summary of what is going on and well-written and reasoned and fair-minded. But there's a little part I want to reply to:
In my experience, expectations DO create harm if they are unrealistic and then not met. I am responding to a notion that feels like those expressing hope are not expressing it with full awareness that is a fantasy scenario, but are talking themselves into the expectation that Rodgers will become someone he has not shown himself to be, both in the long term and in recent history. And that when that idealistic outcome fails to materialize, it will multiply the angst and disappointment and anger in response. And that, as in all cases in life, angst and disappointment and anger are not always channeled and funneled toward the responsible party(s) and are often misguided and lash out at other aspects.APB wrote: ↑14 Jan 2022 12:14You're definitely a logical, analytic type personality, or so it would seem. You're also a fan, obviously, with your own hopes but you've consistently shown your analytical side trumps your fanhood side as evidenced by your consistent measured responses. Nothing wrong with that. I definitely get your perspective and your initial insistence on not pinning hopes to Rodgers suddenly becoming what he has shown not to be. I just don't get the need to continually harp on the hopeful fan perspective that many here hold.
It does no harm to look upon Rodgers and hope he does right by the team and fan base, even if it is a bit farfetched. Even so, there will be plenty of time to bemoan his exodus for greener financial pastures when the time comes, if it comes. I mean, why embrace the storm before it's even arrived?
I'm hoping that my constant harping on what I view as reality will keep the hopeful predictions grounded in hope, while the expectations remain grounded in reality. That's my intent.
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Just gut feeling or is there some evidence for you?
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This entire thread is full of evidence that Rodgers will not accept less money than the best money, primarily that he has not done so since 2008 despite having an opportunity to reduce his salary or give money back in every year of his career, but also I have included ample statements in which he discussed his priorities and pointed out what has been missing from those statements. I have also drawn the connection between what Rodgers is looking for in his own words and the perception of what money means in this league, which has been plainly articulated by Davante Adams and others
The disappointment will absolutely happen. But I already know where the disappointment and lash out will be towards and it most likely won't be Rodgers.YoHoChecko wrote: ↑14 Jan 2022 13:32
In my experience, expectations DO create harm if they are unrealistic and then not met. I am responding to a notion that feels like those expressing hope are not expressing it with full awareness that is a fantasy scenario, but are talking themselves into the expectation that Rodgers will become someone he has not shown himself to be, both in the long term and in recent history. And that when that idealistic outcome fails to materialize, it will multiply the angst and disappointment and anger in response. And that, as in all cases in life, angst and disappointment and anger are not always channeled and funneled toward the responsible party(s) and are often misguided and lash out at other aspects.
I'm hoping that my constant harping on what I view as reality will keep the hopeful predictions grounded in hope, while the expectations remain grounded in reality. That's my intent.
I suspect terms of "I offered to take a discount" will be leaked after the breakup and fans will really harp on that. The term discount is all relative. Rodgers may say taking a 10% to even 20% discount is a big deal...and honestly he is right. It is. But that still might only equal anywhere from $3 to $5 million depending on how you look at it because the structures of these things are so wild. It will be easy to say buzzwords without any further context and not be lying. Discount is one thing. Size of the discount is the other.
Our reality is we are not the best situated team to offer Rodgers both a talented roster and good compensation because we already wrung those resources dry. We gave him that in 2019 - 2021. The only variable in our favor is we drafted him, treated him very well and all his memories are here. Legacy is the only advantage we have.
But it likely just won't be enough when others can offer him, at least from an external viewpoint, a better deal.
Well I've noticed in the last couple days the post count starting to taper a bit here, come on guys there must be more opinions on this delicate topic, or are we forced to wait till the next episode of the McCaffery and Hawk show for Aaron to give us more to ponder
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Ok so it sounds like your idea of a hometown discount is him saying "pay me whatever you want, I'm happy here." If that is the case, then I agree- it's not reasonable to expect any player to take that approach.YoHoChecko wrote: ↑13 Jan 2022 17:32I don't think he's just about the money, either. He'll make his decision on where to play based on other factors. But whether he plays in GB or elsewhere, he will be playing under a new, highest-paid-player contract. I have already bet $1 on it. Like there is no version of reality where the likely back-to-back MVP of the league who has made a career out of feeling passed over and embracing his victim mentality, who has spent the season complaining about getting vilified for his views, who held out in the offseason and returned with a press conference candidly discussing that he wants to be appreciated and valued more and it feels like the team views him as expendable.... will just be like "nah, pay me whatever; I'm happy here. Just make it look nice." Like that's a different human you're talking about. Period.Captain_Ben wrote: ↑13 Jan 2022 16:41Depends on what you'd consider to be a "hometown discount." There are ways of arriving at a mutually beneficial agreement that don't involve pitching someone a lowball offer as your opening move. He already knows that other teams are going to be able to offer him more money. That's a given. Obviously if he's just about the money then I agree, he's gone. But I don't think he is just about money and I don't think he has made his decision yet.
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That is a fair interpretation of that post, but it isn't my intended point overall. I remain steadfast in my commitment to the notion that the ONLY reason he might not be the on-paper highest paid player after whatever his next contract is signed is because he does not have the option of longevity and the years on the end of his contract which can push up the new money/new years reporting, and that Mahomes' deal may be impossible to replicate.Captain_Ben wrote: ↑14 Jan 2022 15:15Ok so it sounds like your idea of a hometown discount is him saying "pay me whatever you want, I'm happy here." If that is the case, then I agree- it's not reasonable to expect any player to take that approach.
My sense is that if he cannot be offered $45 million +$1 annually in new money and new years, he will break a compensation record in a different way. It will be the most guaranteed over three years or the biggest single-season cap number. The Mahomes deal is structured to fully take advantage of the 12-year contract terms to convert roster bonuses into signing bonuses and spread out the costs year-by-year, as needed, far beyond the traditional 5-year proration of bonuses, and that will be very difficult to match.
But I have said elsewhere that I believe incredibly strongly he will need at least $40M annually in new money/new years, and he will need to break some sort of easily-reportable "highest paid" metric that his agent can put in the media ether.
He will be the highest paid player in the league, by some measure, after the deal is done. And his new money/new years will be competitive with the longer deals for the younger guys like Mahomes, Allen, and Dak, even though the logistics of awarding that money to a 38 year old with only 3-5 more playing years is considerably more costly to the team than those younger guys.
I'm not trying to play semantics in this, really. I think Rodgers' next contract will break some records and be gargantuan.
[mention]YoHoChecko[/mention]
Would you say it is unfair to expect Rodgers to take less money than he is worth? Given the fact this expectation is not on any other packer player or employee.
Would you say it is unfair to expect Rodgers to take less money than he is worth? Given the fact this expectation is not on any other packer player or employee.
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Teams that need a QB Available Cap space
Desperate need
Broncos 34.5 mil
Panthers 14 mil
Steelers 33 mil
Washington 31 mil
Saints -74.6 mil
Moderate need
Colts 38.4 mil
Dolphins 60 mil
Texans 7 mil
Titans -3 mil
Packers -49.5 mil
So, the Packers are the second worst team in the NFL with regard to cap space. The difference between the Packers and for example, the Broncos is 84 million dollars. That is enough to sign Rodgers, Adams, Tonyan, Cobb and Nijman. And the Broncos need an OT and a WR. They already have a good D. They had a 7-10 record without a competent QB. This would make them an instant SB candidate.
The same for the Dolphins except they have even more money to spend. They are not desperate for a QB but AR would be an upgrade. They need a WR, a TE and an OT. The Dolphins were a 9-8 team, you put Rodgers and Adams and Tonyan and Nijman on that team and they are a SB contender too.
The Broncos have the #9 pick and 2 second round picks. The Dolphins only have the #22 pick.
But you tell me, why would Rodgers want to stay on a depleted team, without Adams, without Tonyan, without Cobb and with a weaker D when he can take Adams and Tonyan and Cobb with him and be on a BETTER team?
Desperate need
Broncos 34.5 mil
Panthers 14 mil
Steelers 33 mil
Washington 31 mil
Saints -74.6 mil
Moderate need
Colts 38.4 mil
Dolphins 60 mil
Texans 7 mil
Titans -3 mil
Packers -49.5 mil
So, the Packers are the second worst team in the NFL with regard to cap space. The difference between the Packers and for example, the Broncos is 84 million dollars. That is enough to sign Rodgers, Adams, Tonyan, Cobb and Nijman. And the Broncos need an OT and a WR. They already have a good D. They had a 7-10 record without a competent QB. This would make them an instant SB candidate.
The same for the Dolphins except they have even more money to spend. They are not desperate for a QB but AR would be an upgrade. They need a WR, a TE and an OT. The Dolphins were a 9-8 team, you put Rodgers and Adams and Tonyan and Nijman on that team and they are a SB contender too.
The Broncos have the #9 pick and 2 second round picks. The Dolphins only have the #22 pick.
But you tell me, why would Rodgers want to stay on a depleted team, without Adams, without Tonyan, without Cobb and with a weaker D when he can take Adams and Tonyan and Cobb with him and be on a BETTER team?
Last edited by TheSkeptic on 14 Jan 2022 15:48, edited 1 time in total.
I believe that is his and many other's primary point.
It is completely reasonable if Rodgers wants to be paid what he is worth. He has always shown in the past that is what he values and I see no reason for that to not continue. And he is worth that and would deserve that.
But there is also a cost to that.