Why do young QBs win championships?

[texas]

Among all the Rodgers discussion, we've noted many times that "franchise QBs" tend not to win the Super Bowl as much as young guys on rookie or cheap 2nd contracts (or in Brady's case a 50% contract).

But why is that? I really don't know for sure, but I figured I'd post it here and see what ideas we can come up with.

For one thing, I watched these two plays on Sunday and immediately figured this has something to do with it:




That's an entire mode of getting the ball downfield that franchise QBs (especially ours) don't employ. Rodgers would have either gone down, to protect the football because it is the "smart" play, or he would have tried to throw downfield. If he throws downfield, it is all-or-nothing. When you go against playoff defenses in the cold, no matter what your % of "all" (in the all-or-nothing question) in the regular season, your "all" % is going to be lower. Vs when you do a QB scramble, even if it's just for 3 yards, that's the difference between 2nd and 10, and 2nd and 7, meaning that even if you don't get those chunk plays, at least you're not forced into a corner on later downs. Do another 3 yard gain and it's 3rd and short. Obviously playing like this, you may still eventually get stopped, but in these battles of field position (which tend to happen a lot in Green Bay in January), that's a winning strategy.

Run-heavy QBs don't win, but QBs who at least are not afraid of running tend to win.

[kampmanfan4life]

They are on cheap contracts, so easier to build around them.

[Pckfn23]

13.1% of the cap will live another year. That mark was set in 1994, the first year of the cap, by Steve Young. The more a team pays 1 player, the less quality pieces can be placed around that player.

[bud fox]

They are really good players.

Burrow, Mahomes, Wilson, Rodgers - really good players.

Also those teams built really successful rosters on the back of successful drafts and free agency. Bengals killing it in the draft.

It is so hard to get it right consistently and that is what makes Belichick so great.

[Raptorman]

They are really good players.

Burrow, Mahomes, Wilson, Rodgers - really good players.

Also those teams built really successful rosters on the back of successful drafts and free agency. Bengals killing it in the draft.

It is so hard to get it right consistently and that is what makes Belichick so great.

Wrong. Look closely and tell me why Burrows made it.

Code: Select all

                                                        PF     PA
9/19/2021	2	CIN	@	CHI	L	17	20	
10/10/2021	5	CIN		GNB	L	22	25	
10/31/2021	8	CIN	@	NYJ	L	31	34	
11/7/2021	9	CIN		CLE	L	16	41	
12/5/2021	13	CIN		LAC	L	22	41	
12/12/2021	14	CIN		SFO	L	23	26	
					              21.8    31.2
								
9/12/2021	1	CIN		MIN	W	27	24	
9/26/2021	3	CIN	@	PIT	W	24	10	
9/30/2021	4	CIN		JAX	W	24	21	
10/17/2021	6	CIN	@	DET	W	34	11	
10/24/2021	7	CIN	@	BAL	W	41	17	
11/21/2021	11	CIN	@	LVR	W	32	13	
11/28/2021	12	CIN		PIT	W	41	10	
12/19/2021	15	CIN	@	DEN	W	15	10	
12/26/2021	16	CIN		BAL	W	41	21	
1/2/2022	17	CIN		KAN	W	34	31	
1/15/2022	19	CIN		LVR	W	26	19	
1/22/2022	20	CIN	@	TEN	W	19	16	
1/30/2022	21	CIN	@	KAN	W	27	24	
					              29.6    17.5
						 
 

[bud fox]

They are really good players.

Burrow, Mahomes, Wilson, Rodgers - really good players.

Also those teams built really successful rosters on the back of successful drafts and free agency. Bengals killing it in the draft.

It is so hard to get it right consistently and that is what makes Belichick so great.

Wrong. Look closely and tell me why Burrows made it.

Code: Select all

                                                        PF     PA
9/19/2021	2	CIN	@	CHI	L	17	20	
10/10/2021	5	CIN		GNB	L	22	25	
10/31/2021	8	CIN	@	NYJ	L	31	34	
11/7/2021	9	CIN		CLE	L	16	41	
12/5/2021	13	CIN		LAC	L	22	41	
12/12/2021	14	CIN		SFO	L	23	26	
					              21.8    31.2
								
9/12/2021	1	CIN		MIN	W	27	24	
9/26/2021	3	CIN	@	PIT	W	24	10	
9/30/2021	4	CIN		JAX	W	24	21	
10/17/2021	6	CIN	@	DET	W	34	11	
10/24/2021	7	CIN	@	BAL	W	41	17	
11/21/2021	11	CIN	@	LVR	W	32	13	
11/28/2021	12	CIN		PIT	W	41	10	
12/19/2021	15	CIN	@	DEN	W	15	10	
12/26/2021	16	CIN		BAL	W	41	21	
1/2/2022	17	CIN		KAN	W	34	31	
1/15/2022	19	CIN		LVR	W	26	19	
1/22/2022	20	CIN	@	TEN	W	19	16	
1/30/2022	21	CIN	@	KAN	W	27	24	
					              29.6    17.5
						 
 

Scored more points then the other team when they won and less points when they loss.

That explains it then.

[German_Panzer]

They are on cheap contracts, so easier to build around them.

Maybe the main point. Another pretty severe one: amount of film and games (for the opp.) to learn his weaknesses and how to exploit them best. Of course first we would need to know if tx assumption is for real, his assumption could be just hanging on a few examples that cannot match the grand scheme of things. Just as a reminder.

[APB]

Wrong. Look closely and tell me why Burrows made it.

Are you arguing Burrows is not a good, young QB?

[Cdragon]

For the most part they don't. Brady wasn't the big hero when he got his first ring. Big Ben was horrible. For the most part young QBs are along for the ride behind a great D and a running game. The pressure is not on them other than, don't blow it for us. Once you start paying for the QB they have to contribute more because they are usually playing with less. They have infrequent short windows where they can win it all.

[Yoop]

For the most part they don't. Brady wasn't the big hero when he got his first ring. Big Ben was horrible. For the most part young QBs are along for the ride behind a great D and a running game. The pressure is not on them other than, don't blow it for us. Once you start paying for the QB they have to contribute more because they are usually playing with less. They have infrequent short windows where they can win it all.

spot on, Rodgers wasn't considered great when we won the SB, Mahomes had a great supporting cast as well when he won it, youngsters figure this wont be my last chance, where as older QB's know that it very well might be theres, that adds pressure to succeed, which often leads to mistakes or poor play.

[Half Empty]

13.1% of the cap will live another year. That mark was set in 1994, the first year of the cap, by Steve Young. The more a team pays 1 player, the less quality pieces can be placed around that player.

Have looked at this for a while and still can't come up with a way anyone can refute this, even in a sports forum. However, I'm sure someone will, so I'm waiting.

[go pak go]

Sports and organizations compensation is all about figuring out the best way to make the organization better.

CEO's get paid huge bucks because boards feel the money going to a rockstar CEO makes their company more valuable and is worth the investment. Teams that thought way about QBs too.

Except we are seeing there is a limit. A great player is supposed to raise the tide. But we are finding there is a limit to how high the tide can be raised.

Right now it kind of looks like that mark for a player should be no more than $20 to $25 million as your highest paid if you want to be a champion. Anything more and you just can't have the proper supporting cast to be the best team when it matters most.

[bud fox]

13.1% of the cap will live another year. That mark was set in 1994, the first year of the cap, by Steve Young. The more a team pays 1 player, the less quality pieces can be placed around that player.

Have looked at this for a while and still can't come up with a way anyone can refute this, even in a sports forum. However, I'm sure someone will, so I'm waiting.

Jimmy g contract is 6 mil less than Rodgers. That's basically get rid of Kevin King and you have same amount to work with.

If you have a qb on a rookie deal generally you have not been great recently and therefore have had better draft stock and obviously you have more money to spend in FA.

At the same time the young qbs winning are really good. This doesn't happen for every young qb drafted

[bud fox]

Sports and organizations compensation is all about figuring out the best way to make the organization better.

CEO's get paid huge bucks because boards feel the money going to a rockstar CEO makes their company more valuable and is worth the investment. Teams that thought way about QBs too.

Except we are seeing there is a limit. A great player is supposed to raise the tide. But we are finding there is a limit to how high the tide can be raised.

Right now it kind of looks like that mark for a player should be no more than $20 to $25 million as your highest paid if you want to be a champion. Anything more and you just can't have the proper supporting cast to be the best team when it matters most.

This is way off. So many different positions are above 20m. Bahktiari is on average 23m and we went 13-4 without him.

QBs are paid market value which for top qbs is around 40m.

Need to go on a luck run as a GM with the draft and free agency. Bengals have been really good in the draft. Rams have gone all out with Von and Odell and have solid pieces in place.

[go pak go]

@budfox, I don't know what you are trying to argue here.

The Packers in 2021 was the best team in football. They also by and large followed my rule of no player being more than $20 to $25 million of the cap.

Rodgers in 2021 was $27 million on the cap. David B was just under $11 million. Those guys were fine in 2021 from a cap allocation standpoint.

Let's just stick to facts rather than trying to pull an argument. The 2021 Packers were able to field a top level team because of cap games and borrowing cap from future years.

In no way, shape or form am I blaming the Packers issues in 2021 on roster building, player taking too much cap etc. because there isn't any blame to be shed there. The 2021 Packers was the best team in the league. (at the expense of future years)

It is then the responsibility of the players and coaches to make that play, when it is there to be made, to advance to the next round. The Packers players and coaches year after year failed to do that when they had the horses to do it.

I was and still am absolutely fine with the path the Packers took in 2019 - 2021 from a roster standpoint. They built a winner. It sucks they didn't win, but the team was built to win.

And now it is time to pay the price for it from the Packers standpoint because 2022 and 2023 is the year you will see some players' cap hits start to break the rules I said above. And history tells us those teams don't win SBs.

[go pak go]

It's just like the Chiefs. The Chiefs were fine in 2021. They were a great football team.

But you just watch what happens to the Chiefs these next 3 years. I bet you start seeing them fight harder and harder for AFC West Titles and to escape the Divisional round. Because those signing bonus dollars start getting expensed.

[Yoop]

CEO's get paid huge bucks because boards feel the money going to a rockstar CEO makes their company more valuable and is worth the investment.

ahhhhhhhhhhhh
CEO's get money for two reasons, 1 they are heavily invested in the co. and 2. know how to grease wheels which makes it easier for the company to make money, perfect compensation is a % of profit sharing, to bad that most often, that only applies to CEO's or board people.
as to being invested in a company, why should a CEO receive these perks when a person of many years of company service, often far more years then CEO's get bent over, handed some imitation gold plated Rolex, a lifetime issue of AARP, and the CEO's get a title to some yacht

[go pak go]

CEO's get paid huge bucks because boards feel the money going to a rockstar CEO makes their company more valuable and is worth the investment.

ahhhhhhhhhhhh
CEO's get money for two reasons, 1 they are heavily invested in the co. and 2. know how to grease wheels which makes it easier for the company to make money, perfect compensation is a % of profit sharing, to bad that most often, that only applies to CEO's or board people.
as to being invested in a company, why should a CEO receive these perks when a person of many years of company service, often far more years then CEO's get bent over, handed some imitation gold plated Rolex, a lifetime issue of AARP, and the CEO's get a title to some yacht

This is the exact same question we are asking about highly played NFL players compared to their teammates.

At some point there becomes a line that is crossed for key employee compensation level being negative for the organization. That is my whole point.

[Yoop]

CEO's get paid huge bucks because boards feel the money going to a rockstar CEO makes their company more valuable and is worth the investment.

ahhhhhhhhhhhh
CEO's get money for two reasons, 1 they are heavily invested in the co. and 2. know how to grease wheels which makes it easier for the company to make money, perfect compensation is a % of profit sharing, to bad that most often, that only applies to CEO's or board people.
as to being invested in a company, why should a CEO receive these perks when a person of many years of company service, often far more years then CEO's get bent over, handed some imitation gold plated Rolex, a lifetime issue of AARP, and the CEO's get a title to some yacht

This is the exact same question we are asking about highly played NFL players compared to their teammates.

At some point there becomes a line that is crossed for key employee compensation level being negative for the organization. That is my whole point.

I agree on that, the league was able to ceiling Rookie contracts, to bad the union wouldn't go along with ceiling positional pay so the money would filter down better, plenty of union abuse these days.

[go pak go]

ahhhhhhhhhhhh
CEO's get money for two reasons, 1 they are heavily invested in the co. and 2. know how to grease wheels which makes it easier for the company to make money, perfect compensation is a % of profit sharing, to bad that most often, that only applies to CEO's or board people.
as to being invested in a company, why should a CEO receive these perks when a person of many years of company service, often far more years then CEO's get bent over, handed some imitation gold plated Rolex, a lifetime issue of AARP, and the CEO's get a title to some yacht

This is the exact same question we are asking about highly played NFL players compared to their teammates.

At some point there becomes a line that is crossed for key employee compensation level being negative for the organization. That is my whole point.

I agree on that, the league was able to ceiling Rookie contracts, to bad the union wouldn't go along with ceiling positional pay so the money would filter down better, plenty of union abuse these days.

Yeah I don't care about union or "what is right and what is wrong". That is not the point of this thread.

This thread is about why teams with QBs below a certain threshold of Cap % and contract size seem to win all the time. The league doesn't need regulation. It simply seems to be rewarding the teams with Lomardi trophies who figured out the best way to build a team.

I'd gladly pay a QB $100 million a season (half the cap) if he wins me a Lombardi.