April fools: "McGinn's" brutal WR draft rankings

[salmar80]

Jeez! I knew Bob McGinn was a harsh grader, but his 2022 draft WR prospect rankings are naaaasty!!!!

McGinn views no WR worth picking in the first round. Nor the second.

His highest ranked WR is Jameson Williams, but "had to drop him from early second round ranking to mid-third due to the injury. Everyone is always "ahead of schedule" in recovery this time of the year. Caveat emptor."

Garrett Wilson must need a steak for the black eye after this review: "Takes off without a clear route plan. Wilson's route-running is raw and segmented and he needs to get better at route adjustments in traffic. Linear release will get touched up by press. Sloppy footwork in and out of intermediate break points, which combined with hindered by elongated stem and excessive stutter-stepping leads to average win rate in battle for positioning. Suffered from focus drops near the sideline." OUCH!

Treylon Burks didn't fare much better: "Will need to maintain his best playing weight, but still has average physicality after the catch for his size. Needs to become more consistent with contested catches, now allows too much leeway on 50-50 balls. Show off: Occasionally makes unnecessary one-handed catch attempts. Takes time slowing and getting into intermediate breaks."

Yoop trigger warning! You'll never guess Chris Olave's grade:

Spoiler

The whole story behind paywall at www.thefatletic.com/april1st.html

[Yoop]

Jeez! I knew Bob McGinn was a harsh grader, but his 2022 draft WR prospect rankings are naaaasty!!!!

McGinn views no WR worth picking in the first round. Nor the second.

His highest ranked WR is Jameson Williams, but "had to drop him from early second round ranking to mid-third due to the injury. Everyone is always "ahead of schedule" in recovery this time of the year. Caveat emptor."

Garrett Wilson must need a steak for the black eye after this review: "Takes off without a clear route plan. Wilson's route-running is raw and segmented and he needs to get better at route adjustments in traffic. Linear release will get touched up by press. Sloppy footwork in and out of intermediate break points, which combined with hindered by elongated stem and excessive stutter-stepping leads to average win rate in battle for positioning. Suffered from focus drops near the sideline." OUCH!

Treylon Burks didn't fare much better: "Will need to maintain his best playing weight, but still has average physicality after the catch for his size. Needs to become more consistent with contested catches, now allows too much leeway on 50-50 balls. Show off: Occasionally makes unnecessary one-handed catch attempts. Takes time slowing and getting into intermediate breaks."

Yoop trigger warning! You'll never guess Chris Olave's grade:

Spoiler

The whole story behind paywall at www.thefatletic.com/april1st.html

I agree this class may not have the WAddle or Chase, or even a Jefferson who had a slot 20 plus grade in his draft class, and look how that turned out, what it does have are 4 or 5 receivers that continually show up in the first round of most mock drafts and top 30 evals on most big boards, and none of them say Burks will struggle with contested balls, in fact it's the opposite, and the eval comments on the other receivers seem to basically contradict McGinn and the guy NCF brought the other day, so who should we believe? McGinn is notoriously a low grader, we've all seen what he did to some of our own players over the years, and his grade went against everything we saw of the player he low balled, he seems to have a agenda at times which clouds his grades, other times, other players, he seems more gracious.

I've used Dan Jeremiah for player evals for several years now, and always thought his grades where pretty accurate, CBS group also get it pretty close, heres what there saying about these receivers, please tell me what Olaves got from McGinn, I don't want to pay for his info.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/new ... ps-loaded-

[go pak go]

I'm not surprised.

I just don't see it with the little I have watched either. When it took me a long time to warm up to my favorite in this class, I figured it was trouble.

Honestly there isn't a lot of players I love.

I think Nakobe Dean, Wyatt and a combo of Patre, Cine, Hill and the Penn State safety are my favorites outside the Edge Rushers.

[go pak go]

The case I like about the Wilsons, Olaves and Williams of this draft is they do seem to have good speed in their tape.

I think speed is what we need most.

The Packers ranked #1 last year in WRs being "open" and "wide open"

Our scheme is designed to get players open. So the next thing is having players able to do something with it once they have the space.

[salmar80]

I agree this class may not have the WAddle or Chase, or even a Jefferson who had a slot 20 plus grade in his draft class, and look how that turned out, what it does have are 4 or 5 receivers that continually show up in the first round of most mock drafts and top 30 evals on most big boards, and none of them say Burks will struggle with contested balls, in fact it's the opposite, and the eval comments on the other receivers seem to basically contradict McGinn and the guy NCF brought the other day, so who should we believe? McGinn is notoriously a low grader, we've all seen what he did to some of our own players over the years, and his grade went against everything we saw of the player he low balled, he seems to have a agenda at times which clouds his grades, other times, other players, he seems more gracious.

I've used Dan Jeremiah for player evals for several years now, and always thought his grades where pretty accurate, CBS group also get it pretty close, heres what there saying about these receivers, please tell me what Olaves got from McGinn, I don't want to pay for his info.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/new ... ps-loaded-

Olave was priority UDFA for CFL. Good enough to start in Finland.

[Yoop]

I agree this class may not have the WAddle or Chase, or even a Jefferson who had a slot 20 plus grade in his draft class, and look how that turned out, what it does have are 4 or 5 receivers that continually show up in the first round of most mock drafts and top 30 evals on most big boards, and none of them say Burks will struggle with contested balls, in fact it's the opposite, and the eval comments on the other receivers seem to basically contradict McGinn and the guy NCF brought the other day, so who should we believe? McGinn is notoriously a low grader, we've all seen what he did to some of our own players over the years, and his grade went against everything we saw of the player he low balled, he seems to have a agenda at times which clouds his grades, other times, other players, he seems more gracious.

I've used Dan Jeremiah for player evals for several years now, and always thought his grades where pretty accurate, CBS group also get it pretty close, heres what there saying about these receivers, please tell me what Olaves got from McGinn, I don't want to pay for his info.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/new ... ps-loaded-

Olave was priority UDFA for CFL. Good enough to start in Finland.

see, of all the receivers, I've probably watch more vids of Olave then the rest, and that is a pure garbage eval, Olave will be drafted top 25, mark it down, I'll eat the black bird if I'am wrong

maybe I'am losing my eye for talent but I don't see this degradation of draftable talent in this draft class, it might be thin at some positions, but extra strong in others, ya need a edge rusher? if ya can't find one in this class it's because your not looking, same with WR, same with CB, same for ILB, same for safety, every year people say one thing or the other, this class sucks, or this class is loaded, never really seems to be a middle ground stance concerning the draft, imho both sides have been more wrong then right, but thats the nature of the draft, so many variables that determine the success of a prospect.

[NCF]

the guy NCF brought the other day

Plug for the guy. Jon Ledyard. Really smart talent evaluator. If you don't follow him on Twitter, do it. He was on one of the big Draft pods a few years back and then pretty much got erased off the face of the Earth when some ancient inappropriate tweets were discovered.

He is a big Bucs fan, so you do have to comb through that mess, but still worth the follow.

https://twitter.com/LedyardNFLDraft

[Yoop]

Heres Kyle Crabbs another respected eval guy from draft network, and out side of Dotson, it's the same 5 WR's with high grades.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/20 ... crabbs-nov

and 10 WR's rank in his top 50 big board in his latest addition.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/nf ... yle-crabbs

[YoHoChecko]

I don't like McGinn, but his draft stuff is his most useful and valuable contribution. That said, it's useful and valuable due to scouts' input and his connections more so than McGinn's personal evaluation skills.

And of course the round grade stuff seems a little exaggerated

But I'm sort of with Go Pack Go that this class is more deep than great. The reason I'm hesitant on so many of these guys (like Olave and Dotson) is not that they aren't good contributors to the team, but that they don't seem first round value sure. That's why I prefer some of the second and third rounders, because the talent dropoff and risk don't seem too different, but the value is better.

Basically all the top guys in this class come with pretty big drawbacks, which is less than ideal for top-value guys. Most of the fast guys in this class are REALLY skinny. The big guys struggle to separate. The route-runners have that "smooth more than sudden" thing that is sometimes appealing but generally takes time to open up.

Most of the guys seem more like complementary parts or system fits more so than guys who can step into most schemes and win on their own--true number ones. And the ones who have that potential seem likely to take a couple years to get there.

So yes, there are a LOT of WRs that can help our team in this draft. But there may be none who can fill our need for a WR1 early in his career.

Now does that mean no one is worth a first round pick? Probably not. Does it mean no one is worth a second round pick? Definitely not.

But the position feels like a lot more of a crapshoot than previous years to me.

[YoHoChecko]

Oh wait.

HAHAHA

[go pak go]

I think the Draft Network has the most beautiful website, but I've always been suspect of their evals.

I think yoop you're still confused about where players will go or even where they are on a big board compared to how talented a player is.

I have no doubt 5 WRs will be taken Rd 1. But when Jefferson was a 15th to 20's guy in 2020....I can't say the same thing for these guys.

Like I was way more optimistic on crushing on Jefferson after pick #15 in 2020 than I am on Olave after pick 15 this year.

I usually crush on DTs, Edges, CBs, ILBs and WRs.

This year I've been underwhelmed by the DTs and WRs. I haven't looked at CB much. I love Kyler Gordon late Day 2 for us but I bet he goes way earlier than I would like.

The group I seem to gravitate and like the most this year in terms of volume is ILBs, Safety and Edge. And most of the players I like seem to play defense for Georgia or Penn State.

Which also worries me because I get nervous when so many players I like are on the same team.

Like I lot of players. Don't get me wrong. But I like a lot of players if they are valued and drafted from Pick 35 to pick 100. Just not a lot I love in terms of that 15th 34th range.

[Drj820]

I have no doubt 5 WRs will be taken Rd 1. But when Jefferson was a 15th to 20's guy in 2020....I can't say the same thing for these guys.

I think Jefferson being a 15-20 guy says less about the draft class and more about poor evaluations of the great Justin Jefferson.

[Drj820]

[Scott4Pack]

I don't like McGinn, but his draft stuff is his most useful and valuable contribution. That said, it's useful and valuable due to scouts' input and his connections more so than McGinn's personal evaluation skills.

And of course the round grade stuff seems a little exaggerated

But I'm sort of with Go Pack Go that this class is more deep than great. The reason I'm hesitant on so many of these guys (like Olave and Dotson) is not that they aren't good contributors to the team, but that they don't seem first round value sure. That's why I prefer some of the second and third rounders, because the talent dropoff and risk don't seem too different, but the value is better.

Basically all the top guys in this class come with pretty big drawbacks, which is less than ideal for top-value guys. Most of the fast guys in this class are REALLY skinny. The big guys struggle to separate. The route-runners have that "smooth more than sudden" thing that is sometimes appealing but generally takes time to open up.

Most of the guys seem more like complementary parts or system fits more so than guys who can step into most schemes and win on their own--true number ones. And the ones who have that potential seem likely to take a couple years to get there.

So yes, there are a LOT of WRs that can help our team in this draft. But there may be none who can fill our need for a WR1 early in his career.

Now does that mean no one is worth a first round pick? Probably not. Does it mean no one is worth a second round pick? Definitely not.

But the position feels like a lot more of a crapshoot than previous years to me.

If you and Guty are on the same page, then maybe we could potentially see him trading out of 22 AND 28?
Wouldn't that drive PackerNation nuts?!
:-)

[go pak go]

I have no doubt 5 WRs will be taken Rd 1. But when Jefferson was a 15th to 20's guy in 2020....I can't say the same thing for these guys.

I think Jefferson being a 15-20 guy says less about the draft class and more about poor evaluations of the great Justin Jefferson.

Well that's always gonna happen. I'm not concerned about that.

The larger thing in that class is there were so many guys were "1st round" material. So you could easily point to 3 guys ahead of him.

Honestly Jefferson was a ",will he go top 10 or earl Rd 2" kind of guy. And that was because of other LSU WRs taking the show during the time and also because there were other "eligible bachelors" to take his draft slot.

This year you don't have that. Metchie and Williams are both out with torn ACL's. London didn't test due to injury. Burks ran a 4.55.

So we just have a glut of top guys with so many caveats that make me feel top 20 is a reach for them. Yet I bet they will go.

Like Williams is my favorite WR in this draft. Yet how can I be comfortable, needing an immediate impact guy, with someone who can't even have a training camp to get any chemistry with Rodgers?

Like that just doesn't seem like a good fit for 2022. Yet how can I also be comfortable with a guy who I like in Burks yet ran a 4.55 and would only be easy bait for us to complain next fall because our WR room is still "slow"

[Backthepack4ever]

I have no doubt 5 WRs will be taken Rd 1. But when Jefferson was a 15th to 20's guy in 2020....I can't say the same thing for these guys.

I think Jefferson being a 15-20 guy says less about the draft class and more about poor evaluations of the great Justin Jefferson.

Jefferson was my top guy in that class and I didn't think it was close.

Like others have said this class has alot of guys that add to the room and can be great compliments to a top guy. They excel in certain Areas but might not be overall great. And that's ok. I really feel at London Burks and Watson down the road are the only guys with true WR1 potential. Olave can produce but if he's your alpha teams can erase him imo. Pair him with 1 or 2 other good wrs and he will flourish

There is 1st round guys here just maybe not elite guys

[salmar80]

Oh wait.

HAHAHA

It's been weirdly good thread!

[Yoop]

this class doesn't have a chase or Waddle, or Jefferson, Wilson might be close, or a healthy Williams, but when I watch vids of Burks I see him destroy a secondary just as well as those others, I think unless a receiver has every thing GM's like, size, speed and prior excellent college success, they never sniff top 10, GM's know there will be several more with those intangibles later in the round, that just might not be as shiny, we need shiny meaning I think we need the most ready to play, specially so if we fail to sign up a vet.

when Dan Jeremiah and others I'am sure do there big boards, they do them from grades established during the college season, so the grading falls numerically from best grade down, so when he slots Wilson at #15 for instance, Wilson received the 15th best grade.

so either Jeremiah doesn't scout WR's well ( gotta check that guys track record) or McGinn and NCF's guy who has bounced around trying to keep a job ) are attempting to drive the value down on this wonderful receiving class because there being paid in the back room from WR needy teams, I wonder how much we had to fork out who cares as long as we snatch up Burks it's well worth it.

[NCF]

so either Jeremiah doesn't scout WR's well ( gotta check that guys track record) or McGinn and NCF's guy who has bounced around trying to keep a job ) are attempting to drive the value down on this wonderful receiving class because there being paid in the back room from WR needy

Who does scout WR's well? You talk about your bust rates all the time (you know, the stats that you pull out of the clear blue sky). Nowhere is that more pronounced than at WR. I wholeheartedly believe that fit matters more than we will ever be able to quantify. I don't believe a guy like Jalen Raegor, who was probably my favorite WR in that class, just isn't any good. He got drafted by Philly and they don't have a QB or a plan to use a guy like that. It is really tough to figure out these guys and where they can actually be successful. I also think they get over-drafted because there is a never-ending need for these guys.

[bud fox]

The case I like about the Wilsons, Olaves and Williams of this draft is they do seem to have good speed in their tape.

I think speed is what we need most.

The Packers ranked #1 last year in WRs being "open" and "wide open"

Our scheme is designed to get players open. So the next thing is having players able to do something with it once they have the space.

Where is that stat from about being most open wrs? Interested to see the source.