2022 Draft Discussion

[Realist]

I would not be surprised if Christian Watson is the pick at 22...

I think the Packer fan base is vastly overrating the draft status of Christian Watkins because of how perfectly he fits for our current needs and situation.

I think that George Pickens and probably even Skyy Moore could come off the board before Watson does. I see him as a pick around 35-45 and I want him there.

I'd love to trade back from 28 to 40 and 41 from the Seahawks and double dip with Pickens and Watson right there. Put them in a strength program and develop them together? Dynamic AF.

I think Pickens could come off the board b4 Watson but no way Moore. I personally would like Watson at 28.

[Pckfn23]

I would not be surprised if Christian Watson is the pick at 22...

So many drops tho!

Career Drops

George Pickens: 2.1%

Skyy Moore: 3.3%

Chris Olave: 4.7%

Jahan Dotson: 5.1%
Drake London: 5.7

Alec Pierce: 6.4%
Garrett Wilson: 6.8%

Justyn Ross: 7.1%
Treylon Burks: 7.4%
Jameson Williams: 7.7%

Jalen Tolbert: 8.4%



Christian Watson: 12.7%

2018 - 2
2019 - 2
2020 - 7
2021 - 5

A bit concerning, yes.

Watson does check all 4 boxes [mention]YoHoChecko[/mention] talked about.

[Pckfn23]

I wouldn't touch Skyy Moore before the 3rd round...

[Pckfn23]

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2022/0 ... rst-round/

Check out the link with tons of cut ups.

[YoHoChecko]

I think Pickens could come off the board b4 Watson but no way Moore. I personally would like Watson at 28.

Ok, so using the spreadsheet [mention]Pckfn23[/mention] is putting together in the Consensus Big Board thread

image.png (50.28 KiB) Viewed 306 times

I put Watson in green, Pickens in Red and Moore in yellow so there's a visual for how they're stacked. I left random other WRs in there for reference when it seemed to differ from the norm. Note the numbers.

As I said, I think Packers fans are overstating his perceived draft status.

Look, I LOVE him. I will be so mad if/when he's not a Packer. But I think we slippery sloped our way from "well if he's not there are 53, I could support a small trade up" to "Well we could trade back a little from 28 to make sure we get him" to "Eh, just take him at 28. Just to be safe."

[Pckfn23]

I think Pickens could come off the board b4 Watson but no way Moore. I personally would like Watson at 28.

Ok, so using the spreadsheet @Pckfn23 is putting together in the Consensus Big Board thread

image.png

I put Watson in green, Pickens in Red and Moore in yellow so there's a visual for how they're stacked. I left random other WRs in there for reference when it seemed to differ from the norm. Note the numbers.

As I said, I think Packers fans are overstating his perceived draft status.

Look, I LOVE him. I will be so mad if/when he's not a Packer. But I think we slippery sloped our way from "well if he's not there are 53, I could support a small trade up" to "Well we could trade back a little from 28 to make sure we get him" to "Eh, just take him at 28. Just to be safe."

I'm not a Packer fan overstating his draft status. I am seeing a guy that checks a lot of boxes, maybe more than almost all the WRs in this class and the media may be underselling him. I don't necessarily think we should draft him at 22, but I would not be surprised if it happened. I don't believe he is there at 53.

[Ghost_Lombardi]

I would not be surprised if Christian Watson is the pick at 22...

So many drops tho!

Career Drops

George Pickens: 2.1%

Skyy Moore: 3.3%

Chris Olave: 4.7%

Jahan Dotson: 5.1%
Drake London: 5.7

Alec Pierce: 6.4%
Garrett Wilson: 6.8%

Justyn Ross: 7.1%
Treylon Burks: 7.4%
Jameson Williams: 7.7%

Jalen Tolbert: 8.4%



Christian Watson: 12.7%

2018 - 2
2019 - 2
2020 - 7
2021 - 5

A bit concerning, yes.

Watson does check all 4 boxes @YoHoChecko talked about.

But there is a fifth box called catching the ball!

[bud fox]

I think Pickens could come off the board b4 Watson but no way Moore. I personally would like Watson at 28.

Ok, so using the spreadsheet @Pckfn23 is putting together in the Consensus Big Board thread

image.png

I put Watson in green, Pickens in Red and Moore in yellow so there's a visual for how they're stacked. I left random other WRs in there for reference when it seemed to differ from the norm. Note the numbers.

As I said, I think Packers fans are overstating his perceived draft status.

Look, I LOVE him. I will be so mad if/when he's not a Packer. But I think we slippery sloped our way from "well if he's not there are 53, I could support a small trade up" to "Well we could trade back a little from 28 to make sure we get him" to "Eh, just take him at 28. Just to be safe."

Definitely overstated and I blame you lol promoted him like packernation promoting Olave.

When I first saw Watson he reminded me of Jeff Janis more than a first rounder. His Senior Bowl practice tape was quite good though.

[YoHoChecko]

Definitely overstated and I blame you lol promoted him like packernation promoting Olave.

When I first saw Watson he reminded me of Jeff Janis more than a first rounder. His Senior Bowl practice tape was quite good though.

I did and DO promote him. He's ideal. But he's ideal BECAUSE he'll be available in the 40s or so and therefore is super attainable.

And yeah, the Senior Bowl is where he went from speculative prospect to "oh hey, this kid can actually play receiver, not just be faster and taller than his competition!"

But there are noteworthy drawbacks.

At a lower level, you want to see dominant production, and Watson doesn't have that. Skyy Moore had 95 catches, nearly 1,300 yards, 10 TDs last year. Tolbert had 82 catches, nearly 1,500 yards and 8 TDs last year. Calvin Austin had two 1,000+ yard receiving seasons and a high of 11 TDs at Memphis.

Watson's best year was 43 catches for 800 yards.

Then there are the questions about his hands. Are they concentration drops? Is he fighting the ball? Is it something that can be corrected or that will plague him.

But look. I think the guy brings many elements that make him uniquely qualified to fill a role in our revamped receiver room. He replaces MVS nearly ideally in terms of height/speed combo. He probably tracked the ball better in college than MVS did, and has better explosion numbers. He showed at the Senior Bowl hat his route running capability, if not refinement, is more advanced than his college scheme utilized and showed. And he has work ethic and temperament to develop towards his athletic ceiling at best, and push the room to compete and outwork each other at least. He has ST experience where he could fill multiple potential roles for us--a returner, gunner, etc.

I want this guy on my team. Full stop. But wanting him and understanding why he makes SO much sense for us doesn't eliminate the flaws and draft stock knocks that depress his value in that regard.

[Labrev]

I like Watson, but not in Round 1. The nature of our WR need does not afford the luxury of making a developmental guy our first pick.

[Drj820]

Wonder what Pickens did to PFN.

[Pckfn23]

At a lower level, you want to see dominant production, and Watson doesn't have that. Skyy Moore had 95 catches, nearly 1,300 yards, 10 TDs last year. Tolbert had 82 catches, nearly 1,500 yards and 8 TDs last year. Calvin Austin had two 1,000+ yard receiving seasons and a high of 11 TDs at Memphis.

Watson's best year was 43 catches for 800 yards.

So let's take a look at this part.

In 2021, NDSU passed the ball 257 times, total. Western Michigan put the ball in the air, 590 times. South Alabama, 407 times. Memphis tossed is 445 times.

If you extrapolate the numbers out to even the South Alabama passing attack, Watson goes for about 1100 yards. The production is there for what that offense was.

The drops are concerning.

[Pckfn23]

I like Watson, but not in Round 1. The nature of our WR need does not afford the luxury of making a developmental guy our first pick.

I would definitely prefer Round 2 or pick 28 as well. It's weird when you read the draft reports from different places. The only thing that is consistent as far as development is that his footwork needs work and he is taking extra steps on his breaks. Other than that I have read his route combinations are good, meaning he doesn't have a limited route tree.

[APB]

At a lower level, you want to see dominant production, and Watson doesn't have that. Skyy Moore had 95 catches, nearly 1,300 yards, 10 TDs last year. Tolbert had 82 catches, nearly 1,500 yards and 8 TDs last year. Calvin Austin had two 1,000+ yard receiving seasons and a high of 11 TDs at Memphis.

Watson's best year was 43 catches for 800 yards.

So let's take a look at this part.

In 2021, NDSU passed the ball 257 times, total. Western Michigan put the ball in the air, 590 times. South Alabama, 407 times. Memphis tossed is 445 times.

If you extrapolate the numbers out to even the South Alabama passing attack, Watson goes for about 1100 yards. The production is there for what that offense was.

The drops are concerning.

That was the very question running through my mind as I read [mention]YoHoChecko[/mention]'s post. Was it Watson or was it the QB/offensive philosophy? Your response sheds better light on that.

[Drj820]

Wonder why Watson, who is from Tampa, FL. chose NDSU who is known to be dominate at the small ball level...but also known to just be HUGE and out muscle everyone with a dominant run game at that level.

Maybe he didnt get other offers. Maybe he wanted to FCS titles. Maybe he knew at a place like NDSU, when the team did throw...it was going to him.

Which is basically how it played out.

Just doesnt seem like where someone would go if they wanted to play in the NFL as a WR.

It worked though, he is getting buzz and going to get drafted. I would just say his body type and skill very much may set up well for the NFL, but this is no first round prospect in a draft that has more "typical" first round prospects.

For starters, guys who get drafted from the FCS at skill positions need insane production to get noticed (typically)
Or they need to be prototype physical specimens and have a team think they can shape that body into an NFL player (typically)

two factors that allow for FCS guys who play against awful secondary's to get drafted, but RARELY ever factors that let someone get drafted in round one. Seriously, going from the CBs that Watson saw week after week in the midwest FCS will be pop warner middle school ball compared to the jump he will encounter in the NFL. The jump will be outrageous. It will not be a seamless transition.

Recent FCS skill position players and their final year production and draft position:

Kendrick Bourne (undrafted) 1200+ yards
James Robinson (undrafted) 1899 yards rushing
Chase Edmonds (4th round) 3 years of 1500+ rushing yards

The one first rounder from FCS we all know would Cooper Kupp, who broke about every record there was to break in the FCS with 4 straight years of 1400+ receiving yards

Watson just doesnt fit the bill.

[paco]

Wonder why Watson, who is from Tampa, FL. chose NDSU who is known to be dominate at the small ball level...but also known to just be HUGE and out muscle everyone with a dominant run game at that level.

Per Brugler's guide, Watson was a late bloomer in high school and didn't have much production his early years. NDSU offered first and he accepted. Other bigger schools got interested later, but he had already shut down his recruitment and stuck on his commitment to NDSU.

[Yoop]

everyone I read says second round, but I don't see him falling to our second round picks, no one is talking about Watkins, I wouldn't be surprised to hear no GM's or scouts from teams did much talking after his pro day either, mum is the word on Watkins, which to me means he's very much coveted, he might go in the 2nd, but I think it's early not late.

as a player that still may be raw, that has a history of drops (only 2 last year) that comes from a run first team, with very few routes that he's mastered, ( probably all that separates him from a guy like London) I bet he'll have plenty of interest on draft day, a Team that can be patient with his development could jump up and take him mid 20's.

we don't have that luxury, we need a more ready to play guy now, would be fantastic to get London with slot 22, then either trade back with 28 to line up value, or trade back down with a 2nd and maybe a 3rd or 4th and take him, we'd have two big, lanky receivers, one with the speed to stretch a defense.

[YoHoChecko]

At a lower level, you want to see dominant production, and Watson doesn't have that. Skyy Moore had 95 catches, nearly 1,300 yards, 10 TDs last year. Tolbert had 82 catches, nearly 1,500 yards and 8 TDs last year. Calvin Austin had two 1,000+ yard receiving seasons and a high of 11 TDs at Memphis.

Watson's best year was 43 catches for 800 yards.

So let's take a look at this part.

In 2021, NDSU passed the ball 257 times, total. Western Michigan put the ball in the air, 590 times. South Alabama, 407 times. Memphis tossed is 445 times.

If you extrapolate the numbers out to even the South Alabama passing attack, Watson goes for about 1100 yards. The production is there for what that offense was.

The drops are concerning.

I wasn't placing blame. It's just a thing that we have not seen. That makes it a box that isn't checked.

[Pckfn23]

At a lower level, you want to see dominant production, and Watson doesn't have that. Skyy Moore had 95 catches, nearly 1,300 yards, 10 TDs last year. Tolbert had 82 catches, nearly 1,500 yards and 8 TDs last year. Calvin Austin had two 1,000+ yard receiving seasons and a high of 11 TDs at Memphis.

Watson's best year was 43 catches for 800 yards.

So let's take a look at this part.

In 2021, NDSU passed the ball 257 times, total. Western Michigan put the ball in the air, 590 times. South Alabama, 407 times. Memphis tossed it 445 times.

If you extrapolate the numbers out to even the South Alabama passing attack, Watson goes for about 1100 yards. The production is there for what that offense was.

The drops are concerning.

I wasn't placing blame. It's just a thing that we have not seen. That makes it a box that isn't checked.

Considering the offense that he play in, he had similar production. I would say that box is checked.

Let's take this a bit further. If we normalize Skyy Moore's production down to the level of the South Alabama passing game, he has just shy of 900 yards.

[BF004]

Another WR read for ya here if you just can't get enough.

https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/news/17- ... lec-pierce