2022 Draft Discussion

[YoHoChecko]

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[Pckfn23]

I rescind my, don't be surprised if it is Watson at 22. He is almost 23, it ain't happening at 22 or probably even 28. That would be a huge break from Gutekunst's young players in the first trend.

[YoHoChecko]

I rescind my, don't be surprised if it is Watson at 22. He is almost 23, it ain't happening at 22 or probably even 28. That would be a huge break from Gutekunst's young players in the first trend.

I genuinely think Watson's ceiling as a pick is 38th. I maintain that we are overlooking many aspects that have an impact on draft stock that push him into the second round almost assuredly. I still want him desperately. He's still a great fit for us. But he does not have the profile of a first round pick. He would not only be a departure for us due to age, but for most of the league due to production, pedigree, age, and likely development time.

He's a 2nd round pick all day.

[Yoop]

I rescind my, don't be surprised if it is Watson at 22. He is almost 23, it ain't happening at 22 or probably even 28. That would be a huge break from Gutekunst's young players in the first trend.

I genuinely think Watson's ceiling as a pick is 38th. I maintain that we are overlooking many aspects that have an impact on draft stock that push him into the second round almost assuredly. I still want him desperately. He's still a great fit for us. But he does not have the profile of a first round pick. He would not only be a departure for us due to age, but for most of the league due to production, pedigree, age, and likely development time.

He's a 2nd round pick all day.

always felt that way, so raw, we all love the athleticism, but there is a lot of coaching up to be done, I think there will be a run on WR early, top 20, another in the second round, WAtson imo will be in that group, we'll have to move if we want him.

Thanks 23 for all the info on WR, it'll be more handy to quickly look up a player.

[Pckfn23]

I rescind my, don't be surprised if it is Watson at 22. He is almost 23, it ain't happening at 22 or probably even 28. That would be a huge break from Gutekunst's young players in the first trend.

I genuinely think Watson's ceiling as a pick is 38th. I maintain that we are overlooking many aspects that have an impact on draft stock that push him into the second round almost assuredly. I still want him desperately. He's still a great fit for us. But he does not have the profile of a first round pick. He would not only be a departure for us due to age, but for most of the league due to production, pedigree, age, and likely development time.

He's a 2nd round pick all day.

From what I am reading he isn't as raw as the superficial reports have made him out to be. I've read a lot of reports that say he runs the full route tree, but his technique causes him to take extra steps. He will get dinged a bit for playing at a school who throws half as much as most D1 schools. I don't believe his development time is much greater than anyone not going top 15. His drops are going to ding him. Not sure what pedigree means in this case.

I would be surprised if he is there at 48 and mildly surprised if he is there at 40.

[Pckfn23]

Interesting, Kiper has Watson to us at 22 in his latest Mock.

[YoHoChecko]

From what I am reading he isn't as raw as the superficial reports have made him out to be. I've read a lot of reports that say he runs the full route tree, but his technique causes him to take extra steps. He will get dinged a bit for playing at a school who throws half as much as most D1 schools. I don't believe his development time is much greater than anyone not going top 15. His drops are going to ding him. Not sure what pedigree means in this case.

I would be surprised if he is there at 48 and mildly surprised if he is there at 40.

It depends how much weight is put on what was displayed at the Senior Bowl. But if we're going by Senior Bowl over what was put together over a long career on tape, Perrion Winfrey is going in the top 25.

And pedigree means (to me, in this case) that late bloomers from small schools with production and film limited by scheme are rarely considered top-flight draft picks. If you're a small school guy they want to see you dominating and they like to see you break out earlier than your aged-22 year. I'm not talking about whether or not they are worth earlyish picks, but whether they are valued in the top 32? Sometimes those guys go. Often those guys are Adam Shaheen.

He did everything he can to help his case over the past 6 months, but the 4 years prior to that count, as well. He's got too much projection and not enough pedigree to go in the first.

[Drj820]

The best thing about Watson being Mocked to the Packers by Kiper is that means there is no chance we actually select him.

[Pckfn23]

[YoHoChecko]

Ugh, I love Jelani Woods so much but he nailed the pre-draft process TOO well. Now he's out of the range at which I want to draft a TE given the state of our roster.

Here's where I was in January when all the draft sites hadn't updated their rankings and the all-star games hadn't happened:

Pick 250
Virginia TE Jelani Woods

An absolute draft stock mystery. He's not even on some boards. He's as high as the 5th round in one spot. But he's generally in the 7th/priority free agent land for... some reason. Massive dude, 6'7" 270. He's a bit of a one-year wonder. Ok, a lot of one. He did nothing at Oklahoma St, transferred to Virginia and was an impact player in the passing game. Despite his size, his blocking still needs a lot of refinement. So, a year on the PS serving under Big Dog will be perfect for him.

Now we're looking at him in the second. (I know January draft stock isn't real--but it does show how out of nowhere his rise was going into the 2021 college season, at the very least)

[Pckfn23]

Ugh, I love Jelani Woods so much but he nailed the pre-draft process TOO well. Now he's out of the range at which I want to draft a TE given the state of our roster.

Here's where I was in January when all the draft sites hadn't updated their rankings and the all-star games hadn't happened:

Pick 250
Virginia TE Jelani Woods

An absolute draft stock mystery. He's not even on some boards. He's as high as the 5th round in one spot. But he's generally in the 7th/priority free agent land for... some reason. Massive dude, 6'7" 270. He's a bit of a one-year wonder. Ok, a lot of one. He did nothing at Oklahoma St, transferred to Virginia and was an impact player in the passing game. Despite his size, his blocking still needs a lot of refinement. So, a year on the PS serving under Big Dog will be perfect for him.

Now we're looking at him in the second. (I know January draft stock isn't real--but it does show how out of nowhere his rise was going into the 2021 college season, at the very least)

The epitome of why measurables matter to us. Draftniks/media types that we get our information from "mislabel" guys until after they see measurables and go back and look at guys. It's why I haven't been looking at the draft much at all until after the combine and we (media) gets a clearer picture of everyone.

[YoHoChecko]

The epitome of why measurables matter to us. Draftniks/media types that we get our information from "mislabel" guys until after they see measurables and go back and look at guys. It's why I haven't been looking at the draft much at all until after the combine and we (media) gets a clearer picture of everyone.

Agreed that the combine is the key nexus point between public, media, analyst, and league on player value. I just don't have the patience to wait until February every year

The All Star games give a kick-start to the process and is when I truly start tuning in. But before that, I just have to go with best guesses for projected draft stock. Plus, I like picking out 6th and 7th round types early and seeing them rise later to validate my early impressions, haha.

[Yoop]

The best thing about Watson being Mocked to the Packers by Kiper is that means there is no chance we actually select him.

I was thinking where will Mel Kiper have him ranked tomorrow, seems every 3 or 4 days KIper has a new top 50 big board.
All it takes is one GM to fall in love with his test scores and Walla he's snatched up far sooner then he should be, most reports I've read say late 2nd round, that seems about right.

[Pckfn23]

he's snatched up far sooner then he should be

Not talking about any specific player here. What/who determines that a player is snatched up far sooner than they should be?

[Labrev]

I would love to get Woods in Day 2, just an incredibly appealing Y prospect for life after Lewis and Tonyan – size to factor as a blocker, speed to bust the seam.

[Yoop]

he's snatched up far sooner then he should be

Not talking about any specific player here. What/who determines that a player is snatched up far sooner than they should be?

what happens as a rookie in the nfl obviously, but simply projecting, Watson has not had a first round grade, and when ya look at his body of work he wins mostly on physical ability, in other words he's better then most he's faced athletically, not because of technical ability, so thats why he has a 2nd round grade, he needs refinement.

[Pckfn23]

he's snatched up far sooner then he should be

Not talking about any specific player here. What/who determines that a player is snatched up far sooner than they should be?

what happens as a rookie in the nfl obviously, but simply projecting, Watson has not had a first round grade

Again, I am not talking any specific player... Are we able to determine if a player was snatched up too early on draft night? Who/What determines that? Who/what determines if a player has a first/second/third round grade?

Asking clarifying questions, nothing sinister here.

[Yoop]

Not talking about any specific player here. What/who determines that a player is snatched up far sooner than they should be?

what happens as a rookie in the nfl obviously, but simply projecting, Watson has not had a first round grade

Again, I am not talking any specific player... Are we able to determine if a player was snatched up too early on draft night? Who/What determines that? Who/what determines if a player has a first/second/third round grade?

Asking clarifying questions, nothing sinister here.

for you or me, it's mostly opinion, for people that actually make a living touring college games, they grade what they see, and those grades determine a players ranking, obviously those scouts opinion will vary some to, however there will be a general consensus, so when a GM takes a player much higher or lower then the consensus, the opinions will reflect that, and it will be proved with his play ability in the future.

[YoHoChecko]

Again, I am not talking any specific player... Are we able to determine if a player was snatched up too early on draft night? Who/What determines that? Who/what determines if a player has a first/second/third round grade?

Asking clarifying questions, nothing sinister here.

for you or me, it's mostly opinion, for people that actually make a living touring college games, they grade what they see, and those grades determine a players ranking, obviously those scouts opinion will vary some to, however there will be a general consensus, so when a GM takes a player much higher or lower then the consensus, the opinions will reflect that, and it will be proved with his play ability in the future.

That's honestly a very good answer. It just gets so muddied.

As an example, Nick Collins.

Nick Collins was drafted toward the end of the second round by TT. Mel Kiper, if I remember correctly, had him as a 5th round grade. Around the NFL media landscape, people whose job it is to evaluate players themselves, talk to scouts and agents and coaches to get insight into team thinking, and those whojust write about what others are saying... they all basically agreed: this pick was a reach pick.

It was reported shortly after the draft, though, that respected GM in Baltimore, Ozzie Newsome called TT to congratulate him on a great pick; Collins would have been the Ravens' next pick had he been available to them.

So universal consensus of a reach couldn't be the case, since two of the better GMs in the league both evaluated him to be around the same. The argument that even if he turns out to be a good player, you could have taken him later (made by many) is rebuffed by the fact that Newsome was ready to take the same risk on the same kid.

And then he turned out to be a Hall of Fame-caliber player until his career was cut short. So by the on-field play, he was worth much MORE than a late second round pick.

So which is it? The consensus (reach)? The opposing GM (good pick)? The on-field play (under-drafted value)?

I'd put it as some of the GM and some of the on-field play; but the consensus, whoever it may have included, was clearly wrong. Unfortunately we don't get to hear those stories of who a GM might have taken if he were available very often, as it undercuts the pick actually made. So we usually have no way of knowing if you "could get him later." And on draft night, we have no way of knowing how the play turns out.

So we're eft to rely on a consensus opinion that is clearly under-informed and only represents a small swath of the actual opinions that matter.

Not arguing, just laying out how tricky it is to make any determination of draft stock value. That said, it's a fun exercise and forums are great spots for opinions, as are talking head shows. So I still enjoy the opinion fodder. I just can't claim it to be all that useful.

[Pckfn23]

what happens as a rookie in the nfl obviously, but simply projecting, Watson has not had a first round grade

Again, I am not talking any specific player... Are we able to determine if a player was snatched up too early on draft night? Who/What determines that? Who/what determines if a player has a first/second/third round grade?

Asking clarifying questions, nothing sinister here.

for you or me, it's mostly opinion, for people that actually make a living touring college games, they grade what they see, and those grades determine a players ranking, obviously those scouts opinion will vary some to, however there will be a general consensus, so when a GM takes a player much higher or lower then the consensus, the opinions will reflect that, and it will be proved with his play ability in the future.

Who makes the general consensus? Or how is a general consensus made? GMs certainly do not come together to do this.