Rank the Roster 2022: #1

[Drj820]

You usually don’t draft someone at 12 and be happy that they gave you nothing their first 2 seasons.

Not just you Drj, but for others, as well, what is your definition of "nothing"? He was a project and required some time, but can we really look back and say he gave us "nothing"?

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"nothing" may be hyperbole, but those numbers are very minimally impactful. I mean Kyler Fackrell was more impactful on the stat sheet than Gary (to date)

not that i think Fackrell is the better player

[Yoop]

You usually don’t draft someone at 12 and be happy that they gave you nothing their first 2 seasons.

Not just you Drj, but for others, as well, what is your definition of "nothing"? He was a project and required some time, but can we really look back and say he gave us "nothing"?

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Gary started to show some progress and future expectation late year 2, and delivered on it last season, I still justify my initial dislike of the pick because I wouldn't draft someone that raw at a position I just solidified with two obvious starters, that was a luxury pick when we had immediate needs elsewhere, it never had much to do with the player for me as much as it did position.

I differ from many here when it comes to the draft, for me it is all about team building, and fixing weak positions, I stick to BPA when possible but it's not my first criteria

[NCF]

You usually don’t draft someone at 12 and be happy that they gave you nothing their first 2 seasons.

Not just you Drj, but for others, as well, what is your definition of "nothing"? He was a project and required some time, but can we really look back and say he gave us "nothing"?

image.png

"nothing" may be hyperbole, but those numbers are very minimally impactful. I mean Kyler Fackrell was more impactful on the stat sheet than Gary (to date)

not that i think Fackrell is the better player

We have to consider opportunity, though, too, right? I'm sure if we threw Gary into the fire in 2019 he could have accumulated some more empty volume stats. With the Smith's in front of him, the plan was to be patient. It's hard to argue now in hindsight that everything hasn't gone exactly to plan from the Packers standpoint.

[salmar80]

Who the hell compared Gary to Donald? Can I have some of whatever they were having?

I would, why not, Gary had the 3rd or 4th best pass rushing grade of the entire pass rushing league last year per snap, anyone that says they expected more isn't aware of that, all they go by is sack count, I've been preaching for years that sacks are simply the bonus, total pressure counts tell a more complete story, and if your getting pressures eventually higher sack counts will follow, I expect Gary to really explode this season.

Who hacked yoops account

I mean, one thing [mention]Yoop[/mention] has been consistent about is that his gripe with Gary was lack of early impact, and there having been more insta-impact players available at our slot, not hating on Gary otherwise.

I think it's a fair evaluation.

I will personally not be disappointed in any pick if they develop into good starters, even if I may lament not picking that other guy instead. At least we didn't pick Clelin Ferrell, who was mocked to the Packers A LOT...

[Yoop]

I would, why not, Gary had the 3rd or 4th best pass rushing grade of the entire pass rushing league last year per snap, anyone that says they expected more isn't aware of that, all they go by is sack count, I've been preaching for years that sacks are simply the bonus, total pressure counts tell a more complete story, and if your getting pressures eventually higher sack counts will follow, I expect Gary to really explode this season.

Who hacked yoops account

I mean, one thing @Yoop has been consistent about is that his gripe with Gary was lack of early impact, and there having been more insta-impact players available at our slot, not hating on Gary otherwise.

I think it's a fair evaluation.

I will personally not be disappointed in any pick if they develop into good starters, even if I may lament not picking that other guy instead. At least we didn't pick Clelin Ferrell, who was mocked to the Packers A LOT...

over the years I've been disappointed with many of our first round picks, what I don't do is continue to dislike them just because I wanted someone else, in Gary's case it was Simmons mostly who I thought would give us quicker production, in that sense I was right, but thats all water over the damn now ( 7 mile damn near me just gave out and flooded acres and acres of prime grouse habitat, I'am more upset about that then the Gary pick )

[BF004]

If Gary just matches last year, without improving for the next two years, that is an absolute slam dunk pick. I'm guessing he is going to progress and get even better. 3.5 out of 5 years of legit pro-bowl level play? Might honestly be entering all-pro level. Guess I can't fathom what expectations you all have for draft picks, but I am going to guess they are not based in reality.

We then have exclusive rights to extend him, franchise tag him for multiple years, or trade him need be.

[Drj820]

If Gary just matches last year, without improving for the next two years, that is an absolute slam dunk pick. I'm guessing he is going to progress and get even better. 3.5 out of 5 years of legit pro-bowl level play? Might honestly be entering all-pro level. Guess I can't fathom what expectations you all have for draft picks, but I am going to guess they are not based in reality.

We then have exclusive rights to extend him, franchise tag him for multiple years, or trade him need be.

nothing to argue with at all if Gary matches production for next two years. That is projection though. Currently he has been productive for 1 of 3 years.

[Yoop]

If Gary just matches last year, without improving for the next two years, that is an absolute slam dunk pick. I'm guessing he is going to progress and get even better. 3.5 out of 5 years of legit pro-bowl level play? Might honestly be entering all-pro level. Guess I can't fathom what expectations you all have for draft picks, but I am going to guess they are not based in reality.

We then have exclusive rights to extend him, franchise tag him for multiple years, or trade him need be.

thats the thing I don't want just 3.5 years of production from a 12 slot player, and if he does super it's not so easy to just say we'll just extend him, just look what the best edge rushers are getting now days.

players taken in that range are taken there because they don't need a 1.5 years to develop, thats why there ranked that high, imo only QB's should be allowed that advantage you and I will never agree on this stuff.

[BF004]

Just have to agree to disagree then.

You can be mad we drafted a legit all-pro talent.

I'll be extremely happy about it.

[Pckfn23]

https://stathead.com/tiny/IjDFv

59, 1st or 2nd year defenders drafted in the first round over the last the last 16 seasons have posted 5+ sacks, 35+ tackles, and 11+ QB hits. That's less than 3 a year. There have been 169 front 7 defenders drafted in the 1st round from 2006-2021: https://stathead.com/tiny/aWM3T.

Definitely more than nothing.

41 players since 2006 had the season Gary had last year, or bettered it: https://stathead.com/tiny/g6zWE

[Yoop]

Just have to agree to disagree then.

You can be mad we drafted a legit all-pro talent.

I'll be extremely happy about it.

yep, I would still have taken Simmons, imho D&D pertains more to 2nd and later round picks, I expect early participation from 1st rounders, specially top 15 picks.

and he was not even a starter for 2 seasons, don't give me this crap that I'am mad we drafted a all pro, he sure as &%$@ wasn't all pro prior to last year, and if he walks because we can't afford to resign him then we sure as hell lost value on that pick.

[BF004]

But you wouldn't have taken Simmons, you didn't beat that drum till like 2020. We were all told we should have traded up for Devin Bush, who didn't have his 5th year option exercised.

And also why this irrational fear we wont be able to resign Gary? When have we ever let a good core young player go after his rookie contract because we couldn't afford him?

[Yoop]

But you wouldn't have taken Simmons, you didn't beat that drum till like 2020. We were all told we should have traded up for Devin Bush, who didn't have his 5th year option exercised.

And also why this irrational fear we wont be able to resign Gary? When have we ever let a good core young player go after his rookie contract because we couldn't afford him?

I liked a lot of players over Gary, Bush, Fant and Simmons where my main crushes if memory serves.

why are you calling it irrational fear? we are cap strapped now, and have a bunch of top shelf players to resign, true pass rusher tends to take precedence over other positions, still the price my be to much

[Pckfn23]

Here is the interesting thing about getting all caught up in this instant impact for a top 16 pick: 140 out of 352 players were at least partially considered instant impact rookies since 2000 with an approximate value of 7 or higher: https://stathead.com/tiny/CGtF4

That would mean most of the time teams are just fine with draft and develop guys in the top half of the first round.

We have about 22 months before we must resign Rashan Gary...

[Yoop]

then give me one of the 140, we know a bunch are QB's or DL or TE's etc, some positions are easier transition then others, imo CB's and edge rushers are the more easier positions to do well as rookies.

[BF004]

But you wouldn't have taken Simmons, you didn't beat that drum till like 2020. We were all told we should have traded up for Devin Bush, who didn't have his 5th year option exercised.

And also why this irrational fear we wont be able to resign Gary? When have we ever let a good core young player go after his rookie contract because we couldn't afford him?

I liked a lot of players over Gary, Bush, Fant and Simmons where my main crushes if memory serves.

why are you calling it irrational fear? we are cap strapped now, and have a bunch of top shelf players to resign, true pass rusher tends to take precedence over other positions, still the price my be to much

We have never let a good young player walk after a rookie contract for the reason we couldn't afford him. Perhaps have made business decisions to not match external offers, Casey Hayward, Micah Hyde, MVS, come to mind. But never because we couldn't afford them if we wanted.

If we choose not to resign him for differences in compensation, we can probably trade him for a lot, and pending injury, knock on wood, 3.5 very very impactful years of value.

But my guess is zero chance we will let him go.

[Pckfn23]

We have talked about this before: https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress ... t-success/

RB and LB are the easiest transitions for rookies. DL/DE and TE are the hardest transitions for rookies.

[Yoop]

We have talked about this before: https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress ... t-success/

RB and LB are the easiest transitions for rookies. DL/DE and TE are the hardest transitions for rookies.

I agree about RB's, not ILBs you just used lber to describe a edge rusher, nice try

[Yoop]

But you wouldn't have taken Simmons, you didn't beat that drum till like 2020. We were all told we should have traded up for Devin Bush, who didn't have his 5th year option exercised.

And also why this irrational fear we wont be able to resign Gary? When have we ever let a good core young player go after his rookie contract because we couldn't afford him?

I liked a lot of players over Gary, Bush, Fant and Simmons where my main crushes if memory serves.

why are you calling it irrational fear? we are cap strapped now, and have a bunch of top shelf players to resign, true pass rusher tends to take precedence over other positions, still the price my be to much

We have never let a good young player walk after a rookie contract for the reason we couldn't afford him. Perhaps have made business decisions to not match external offers, Casey Hayward, Micah Hyde, MVS, come to mind. But never because we couldn't afford them if we wanted.

If we choose not to resign him for differences in compensation, we can probably trade him for a lot, and pending injury, knock on wood, 3.5 very very impactful years of value.

But my guess is zero chance we will let him go.

I'am fine that your happy with 3.5 years ( actually at this time it's 1.2 years of production) for a rookie we used slot 12 on, as I said the only position I would accept that for would be a QB.

[BF004]

( actually at this time it's 1.2 years of production)

I am torn between if you believe this or you are just being disingenuous because you like to argue.

He was voted #10 last year in our Rank the Packers thingy we did last summer. You don't get voted to #10 off 0.2 years of production in 2 years.

Despite the 'not starter' title (which is apparently the most important things now), he played about 50% of snaps in 2020 despite missing two games, he ended the season second in pressures and sacks, both behind ZaDarius.

Another metric that PFF uses to help illustrate efficiency as a pass rusher, is pass-rush productivity. This measures the rate at which a defender creates a pressure with a heavier weighting towards sacks. And for the entire season, Gary ranks 15th out of 121 eligible pass rushers.

While pressures and sacks get you noticed, Gary has also been very good this season against the run, ranking 19th out of the same 121 eligible edge-rushers in run-stop rate, which is another efficiency metric from Pro Football Focus.

IF that is worth 0.2 seasons of production, then you just are so dead set on winning a debate you simply choose to ignore logic and common sense. I didn't like the Gary pick. But I am humble enough to come to conclusion that that pick is looking like a home run at this point.